Good read from Arthur if you like to whine about leverage https://blog.bitmex.com/i-still-cant-draw-a-line/
Posted in investment thread too, but hedge fund friend… There are so many scary things about this market. Bond market is more distorted than ever (crappiest companies in the world borrowing money for 6-8%, best ones 0%). Valuations for broad market are high with pockets of pure insanity. I’m not really a macro guy and I don’t think the right move is to bet on a crash tmrw. But the prudent thing to do right now is to have a plan if we get a real meltdown. Be ready to go on offense if that happens and not defense. For most people this means buy real estate and things you feel comfortable can hold value or cash flow regardless of the stock market. If I didn’t run a hedge fund I’d be taking money out of the market and buying real estate with predictable cash flows. Lock up low rate LT debt. If I had to touch stocks I’d go with the big tech monopolies, banks, and more boring stuff that is less rate sensitive (careful in utilities, telecom, and other bond like equities). Maybe some commodity exposure. If we get a big crack you can rotate into riskier stuff. The risk reward of owning pretty much any bond right now is so bad you really shouldn’t own any of them now. I’d rather be in a checking account. The 60/40 model is busted IMO. If you buy bonds stay really short term. Crypto is not a hedge against a market crack either IMO. But I would also really derisk there. Most alts are probably worth zero. Stop going leveraged long an insane asset class… Market was flat from 1999 to 2010 including dividends. It’s not impossible we get an 11 year stretch like that. Plan for the worst and don’t be upset if you miss some upside.
Best friend of 25 years told me yesterday he bought some bitcoin. I told him I'm in the market for a new best friend if he knows anyone.
No - you’re a clown because you get a kick out of coming into threads about digital currencies and digital “hobbies” and try to act above it all when you spend thousands of dollars on cardboard.
Bonds? Lmao. Show me another 11 year period like the absolutely incredible timeframe choice of 1999-2010 also, peak dot com bubble to Great Recession. Phenomenal.
Yeah, because I was definitely going to throw away 25 years of friendship over bitcoin. Jesus christ, go to bed Lip.
Well, it’s not a timeframe choice, it’s a timeframe reality. Anyone with a passive investment strategy during that period was exposed to those assets for a decade. What point do you think he’s making? Bc I think he’s saying taking a self managed approach can potentially save one money. Preserving capital in sideways/down markets is just as important as capturing growth. I think the argument he’s making is we’re seemingly on a similar trajectory… will it last as long, will there be a companion black swan event within the next decade, idk and I don’t think he’s necessarily predicting that, but I also think set it and forget it bc you’ll make it back overtime is a bit shortsighted.
Update: MKR -40% to $2b. TVL to $6b from $8b. Annualized earnings to MKR holders $80m from $120m. Given the cryptopuke it seems like the protocol holding up pretty well, right? Similar amount of BTC/ETH locked. Valuation a little better than when I first invested. Doubled down.
I’m certainly no wealth management guru, but honestly my biggest wtf from his recommendations was the thought of pulling out of securities and going into real estate at the current moment. Maybe it’s different in other parts of the country, but prices have absolutely skyrocketed here and inventory blows, and it’s been that way since the beginning of Covid and seemingly not getting better. I bought my house in July mid pandemic, overpaying like crazy due to a bidding war bc of no supply, and a house down the street that is a direct comp just sold last week for 100k over ours. If you’re already comfortable in real estate I could see being really happy at the moment, but jumping into it today seems risky af.
For sure, I think he’s of the opinion it’s the best of limited/no great options. I’d argue price volatility in RE is offset by cash flow/income. I wouldn’t leverage in, but I see no issue with de-risking from equities, taking profits, and investing into a sensible RE market (colleges, military, growing mid sized metro areas).
Has anybody ever sent bitcoin to someone using the bitcoin wallet on coinbase? I sent my Dad about $50 worth of BTC for Father’s Day. We talked about it last time I saw him, so I thought it would be a relevant gift we could talk about. Long story short, I sent it to him but was not able to discuss it with him until about a week later. I sent it to his mobile number. Does anyone know if he would have gotten a text about this transfer, or if it would have gone straight into his coinbase account? He says he didn’t get a text or any notification about it, and coinbase has of course been no help.
I don't believe you get a text or if you can even set that up. It should be in his wallet. You can click on the transaction history from your coinbase wallet/app and it should show if the transaction was confirmed, the address it was sent to, etc,.
With Binance most likely going to struggle to penetrate US due to regulators, probably seeing a vacuum with Coinbase as the only big US firm. Smart IMO, still nascent industry awareness and with institutions getting in advertising in traditional mediums helps with the trust factor
I've been buying a share of btc every week for 10 weeks and I'm down 6%. Kind of consider that a win with all the negative news over the same time period.