Official Cryptocurrency Thread: Skepticism to Speculation

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Nantucket, Jan 29, 2017.

  1. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

    January 1, 2016: BTC market cap $6.5B. Tether market cap $950k.

    Today: BTC market cap $217B. Tether market cap $10B.

    Clearly the $10B in tether is responsible for the $210.5B increase in BTC market cap.
     
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  2. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

    March 12, 2020: BTC market cap $81B, ETH $13B, XRP $6B, Tether $4.7B, Dogecoin $210M (because why not).

    August 7, 2020: BTC market cap $217B, ETH $44B, XRP, $13.7B, Tether $10B, Dogecoin $451M.

    So to recap Tether went up a whopping $5.3B and BTC went up $136B. I will not further explain what is painfully obvious. Please continue to ignore the asset performing better than gold, silver, stocks, bonds, and real estate. It will allow others who aren't idiots to accumulate more.

    And on a related note:



     
  3. HuskerGuy99

    HuskerGuy99 Above Average Member

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3195066

    Educate yourself.
     
  4. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

  5. HuskerGuy99

    HuskerGuy99 Above Average Member

    John M. Griffin

    University of Texas at Austin - Department of Finance
    Amin Shams

    Ohio State University, Fisher College of Business

    The "papers" you link:

    Random guy selling crypto loans in Texas

    Random guy selling crypto "advice" in California
     
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  6. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

    Tether—the coin literally not even listed on the largest exchange in the US (Coinbase)—is solely responsible for the price movement of BTC.

    Yes this is a very sane thought.
     
  7. HuskerGuy99

    HuskerGuy99 Above Average Member

    Obviously you have not. Most people could simply read the abstract and get the gist of it. But you have read it and still need an explanation?

    You are acting like every single crypto ever bought was bought with Tether. That is not how it works. They need the speculators and people like you to actually make money.
     
  8. HuskerGuy99

    HuskerGuy99 Above Average Member

    Clearly did not read the article and clearly have no idea what you are talking about.
     
  9. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

    The literal abstract is that Tether drove the 2017 boom. It is a fact that Tether is not listed on Coinbase, plus plenty of other exchanges. Ignore that if you choose.

    Did Tether also drive the March 2020 drop? Why would the Tether masterminds let it fall below $4k? Why not drive it to $20k at this point? Or $30k? Or $40k?
     
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  10. HuskerGuy99

    HuskerGuy99 Above Average Member

    Abstract

    This paper investigates whether Tether, a digital currency pegged to the U.S. dollar, influenced Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency prices during the 2017 boom. Using algorithms to analyze blockchain data, we find that purchases with Tether are timed following market downturns and result in sizable increases in Bitcoin prices. The flow is attributable to one entity, clusters below round prices, induces asymmetric autocorrelations in Bitcoin, and suggests insufficient Tether reserves before month-ends. Rather than demand from cash investors, these patterns are most consistent with the supply-based hypothesis of unbacked digital money inflating cryptocurrency prices.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EexpOqpWAAEDq-N?format=jpg&name=900x900

    I'm not worried if you can't understand it. I just hope other TMBers reading it can. Purely speculative and trade at your own risk!
     
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  11. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

    Continue ignoring literally every question that undercuts the narrative.

    And what exactly do you think this 2018 paper is proving? In your words. That the actual 24/7 supply demand market that btc is trading at in US dollars is...wrong?

    Also I posted multiple articles and my own thoughts on the article like one page ago.

    You have literally one thing to add to this thread: BtC TeThEr CoNsPiRaCy. No one cares dude. The groundbreaking paper has been out for 2 years. The market doesn’t give a shit. You’re wrong.
     
  12. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

    This whole thing is funny because it also has absolutely nothing to do with btc, its value proposition, or technology.

    HuskerGuy99 is basically shouting “central authority prints currency that is not tied 1:1 to a hard money and then uses it to buy bitcoin.” We know man. It’s called the federal reserve and the US dollar.
     
    #9912 user15000, Aug 7, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2020
  13. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

  14. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

  15. HuskerGuy99

    HuskerGuy99 Above Average Member

    KLOL another guy that bought Bitcoin and now wants to dump his bags is pumping and shilling it on social media. Imagine.
     
  16. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

    Yes this is the point where we act like Raoul Pal has zero credibility and hasn’t had a complete transformation in his investment thesis over the last several months.
     
  17. HuskerGuy99

    HuskerGuy99 Above Average Member

    No, I believe I have roundly annihilated your shilling in this thread. Anyone has the ability to roll back about 10 pages and watch you fail to address just about every issue I have brought up from the very fundamentals to the current time where many are attempting to send crypto into FOMO overdrive as the stock market screams toward new all-time highs.

    Your latest attempt at deflection is to say that I am claiming that the entire market cap of Bitcoin was bought up with Tether. Anyone with reading comprehension can read the abstract of that paper and understand what the point is.

    You still have not refuted Ray Dalio's claims in the video that was posted a few days ago. And you won't be able to without a major, major shift in use-case for crypto (which is entirely speculation right now).

    And I'm glad you can recognize the resemblance to the Fed! That is precisely the point! What is stopping the Fed from printing a gajillion dollars and buying up every single Bitcoin again? Only their belief in Bitcoin's effectiveness, which should tell you something.
     
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  18. HuskerGuy99

    HuskerGuy99 Above Average Member

    https://markets.businessinsider.com...vows-never-own-crypto-value-2020-2-1028932272

    How much money does Raoul Pal have again? Warren Buffett is sitting on $135 billion in cash and hires the brightest minds in the world to advise him on investment matters. And there is your credible take on Bitcoin.
     
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  19. HuskerGuy99

    HuskerGuy99 Above Average Member

    "You can't do anything with it except sell it to somebody else," he added. "But then that person's got the problem."

    - $138 billion man

    Gee, sounds like what we heard from the $17 billion man as well.

    Notice a pattern? According to Warren Buffett, you have a problem, user15000.
     
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  20. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

    Lol at annihilation or shilling. I post news. You don't like it because you've been wrong time and again on price movement and appreciation of btc. Also I recently read your outburst in the Kanye 2020 thread. You're a fucking weirdo man.

    Dalio's position of "blockchain not btc" is silly and has been roundly rejected by the market. Other cryptocurrencies have been around for years. There's one that matters. He's also skipping years of monetary evolution and asking for price stability now. That's now how money evolves:

    Using modern terminology, money always evolves in the following four stages:

    1. Collectible. In the very first stage of its evolution, money will be demanded solely based on its peculiar properties, usually becoming a whimsy of its possessor. Shells, beads and gold were all collectibles before later transitioning to the more familiar roles of money.
    2. Store of value: Once it is demanded by enough people for its peculiarities, money will be recognized as a means of keeping and storing value over time. As a good becomes more widely recognized as a suitable store of value, its purchasing power will rise as more people demand it for this purpose. The purchasing power of a store of value will eventually plateau when it is widely held and the influx of new people desiring it as a store of value dwindles.
    3. Medium of exchange: When money is fully established as a store of value, its purchasing power will stabilize. Having stabilized in purchasing power, the opportunity cost of using money to complete trades will diminish to a level where it is suitable for use as a medium of exchange. In the earliest days of Bitcoin, many people did not appreciate the huge opportunity cost of using bitcoins as a medium of exchange, rather than as an incipient store of value. The "); background-size: 1px 1px; background-position: 0px calc(1em + 1px);">famous story of a man trading 10,000 bitcoins (worth approximately $94 million at the time of this article’s writing) for two pizzas illustrates this confusion.
    4. Unit of account. When money is widely used as a medium of exchange, goods will be priced in terms of it. I.e., the exchange ratio against money will be available for most goods. It is a common misconception that bitcoin prices are available for many goods today. For example, while a cup of coffee might be available for purchase using bitcoins, the price listed is not a true bitcoin price; rather it is the dollar price desired by the merchant translated into bitcoin terms at the current USD/BTC market exchange rate. If the price of bitcoin were to drop in dollar terms, the number of bitcoins requested by the merchant would increase commensurately. Only when merchants are willing to accept bitcoins for payment without regard to the bitcoin exchange rate against fiat currencies can we truly think of Bitcoin as having become a unit of account.


    Buffett has never demonstrated anything besides a surface level analysis of it. His "you can't do anything with it" is factually wrong for starters. It's a form of money and a digitally scarce store of value. His critique also applies the exact same to the monetary premium placed on gold. The fact that he's sitting on tons of cash while the dollar performs like shit should maybe be an indication that he isn't always right...but what do I know. Jamie Dimon has publicly trashed btc in the past too and then JP has analysts putting out reports like this while the bank seeks to launch its own crypto: https://news.bitcoin.com/jpmorgan-bitcoins-market-currencies-equities-treasuries-gold/

    IIRC Raoul's newsletter had his price buy-in at like $7k. So he's doing just fine. PTJ is as well.

    And the fact you think the Fed could "buy up all the btc" makes you a fucking moron. Almost 18.5m of the 21m are already in circulation. New ones are distributed through the mining protocol. It is factually impossible for the fed to do anything remotely close to what you suggest.
     
    #9920 user15000, Aug 9, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 9, 2020
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  21. HuskerGuy99

    HuskerGuy99 Above Average Member

    The Fed printed how many trillions of dollars this year alone?

    *glances up at your post at the top of this page*

    "Today: BTC market cap $217B."

    Did you skip high school?
     
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  22. Harrison Beck

    Harrison Beck Hi, I'm Harrison Beck
    Donor
    Liverpool

  23. HuskerGuy99

    HuskerGuy99 Above Average Member

    Buffett and his $138 billion of cash ready to be spent on anything. Probably pays millions of dollars to the smartest and savviest advisors around. Imagine my confusion when they do not share the same sentiment that you and your merry band of Twitter shills do. Wow you typed all that stuff about money out as if Buffett's legion of incredibly smart advisors had not thought about and heavily researched it already. Do you think they listened to a few podcasts and read Twitter like you did? I'm guessing they probably did a little something called DUE DILIGENCE. They came to a conclusion. Ray Dalio (worth $17 billion) also came to a similar conclusion.

    And by the very modern terminology you mention, you prove Ray Dalio's points. You refute none of his points. You simply did what all the other shillling Twitter users you linked to did: you said something and expected others to take it as fact when it is most definitely NOT.
     
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  24. HuskerGuy99

    HuskerGuy99 Above Average Member

    The Fed has plans, methinks.
     
  25. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

    What don’t you understand? There are 2.5m btc left and the ones that are left are distributed directly to miners. The fed couldn’t buy them up if they wanted.


    Quick now do Paul Tudor Jones.

    Also ho-hum $12k. That fed news from 4 days ago that changes absolutely nothing is really killing the market.
     
  26. Harrison Beck

    Harrison Beck Hi, I'm Harrison Beck
    Donor
    Liverpool

    Care to expound
     
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  27. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

    Thinking that the btc value prop is “quick payments” that is undermined by a fed coin is hilariously idiotic.
     
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  28. Harrison Beck

    Harrison Beck Hi, I'm Harrison Beck
    Donor
    Liverpool

    Waiting w/ bated breath but it would be one of the dumber things I’ve ever seen posted on the internet.
     
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  29. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

    He thinks a threat to btc is the fed deciding to buy a bunch of it (or all per him), which is also up there for really stupid shit. If the fed announced it was buying btc, the price would go nuts. Beyond that, it isn’t even possible for the fed to buy up “all the btc.” It’s not all for sale and they’d have to start mining btc to get awarded any new ones.

    An actual threat would be the fed banning ownership of it. But even that ship has likely sailed as the OCC is signing off on banks custodying it, etc.
     
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  30. Harrison Beck

    Harrison Beck Hi, I'm Harrison Beck
    Donor
    Liverpool

    lol wat... husk guy is this for real?
     
  31. HuskerGuy99

    HuskerGuy99 Above Average Member

    STILL, no refutation of Ray Dalio's talking points. Just admit you are speculating as Mr. Buffett ($138 billion in CASH) and Mr. Dalio ($17 billion) have said.

    Remember, they both can afford an army of the best and brightest investment minds. ZERO investment in crypto.
     
  32. Harrison Beck

    Harrison Beck Hi, I'm Harrison Beck
    Donor
    Liverpool

    Bitcoin doesn’t give a fuck what buffet or dalio think about it :)
     
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  33. HuskerGuy99

    HuskerGuy99 Above Average Member

    Neither did beanie babies. :) :) :)
     
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  34. HuskerGuy99

    HuskerGuy99 Above Average Member

    user15000, please at least try to respond with facts (preferably in response to Ray Dalio's video for the nth time) instead of jumping to ridiculous conclusions about anything I have said. Taking hypotheticals and turning them into literal arguments just makes you look like the huge shill that you are. :)

    I do understand why you do it though. You have no other recourse.
     
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  35. Harrison Beck

    Harrison Beck Hi, I'm Harrison Beck
    Donor
    Liverpool

    Tulips called and they want your joke back. I’m not going to write a 10 page diatribe like 1500 does back to you but you really make zero sense when you respond in here and it’s frankly embarrassing. Thanks for saving me the time and not expounding on your asinine view about the feds digital dollar. Lol
     
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  36. HuskerGuy99

    HuskerGuy99 Above Average Member

    user15000's main account? :)

    Not a joke, by the way. What should be a sobering reality. But the good news is the price should be going up in the short-term! Just make sure you sell.
     
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  37. Harrison Beck

    Harrison Beck Hi, I'm Harrison Beck
    Donor
    Liverpool

    I’m glad we could agreed on something
     
  38. HuskerGuy99

    HuskerGuy99 Above Average Member

    Yeah it was the fact that you were the only person liking user15000's posts that gave it away. Nice form though.
     
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  39. Harrison Beck

    Harrison Beck Hi, I'm Harrison Beck
    Donor
    Liverpool

    There’s 3 of us in the thread. You’re as much of a loser as we are.
     
  40. HuskerGuy99

    HuskerGuy99 Above Average Member

    If you say so.
     
  41. Harrison Beck

    Harrison Beck Hi, I'm Harrison Beck
    Donor
    Liverpool

    For someone who loathes bitcoin you spend a lot of time and effort in here. Or am I making that up too?
     
  42. HuskerGuy99

    HuskerGuy99 Above Average Member

    Your posting is awfully angry in this thread. Come with some facts or stay on your main account, please.

    Also, I don't loathe Bitcoin. I loathe shillers. Scum of the internet!
     
  43. Harrison Beck

    Harrison Beck Hi, I'm Harrison Beck
    Donor
    Liverpool

    The classic I’m not mad you’re mad? What’s next, I know you are but what am I? I think there’s plenty of facts floating around in here but It doesn’t appear you’re interested in them. Which is fine but when you post stupid shit intimating that the digital dollar is a rut roh get called out on it and still say nothing to back up your point it’s hard to take “husk guy 98” seriously. The only thing that would rationalize any of this is if you told me you were from Mullen.
     
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  44. HuskerGuy99

    HuskerGuy99 Above Average Member

    You are lashing out like a petulant child. Which city in Nebraska is characterized by that behavior?
     
  45. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

    I've addressed Buffett (you can't use it for anything) and Dalio's (blockchain not btc) points multiple time, including on this very page.

    You'll never read any of these because you're dumb and have no interest in engaging on the logic or substance of their arguments, but I'll post why they're wrong again:

    Bitcoin is not backed by nothing: https://unchained-capital.com/blog/bitcoin-is-not-backed-by-nothing/

    Bitcoin not blockchain: https://unchained-capital.com/blog/bitcoin-not-blockchain/

    Bitcoin can't be copied: https://unchained-capital.com/blog/bitcoin-cant-be-copied/

    Robert Breedlove has also written a point-by-point analysis of Dalio's position, which you'll also not read and which I previously linked.

    Bottom line, I don't give a fuck what Dalio or Buffett do and my decision to side with them or not is based on the logic, or lack thereof, in their surface level talking points which have existed in the btc space for years. On the other hand, your position would completely fall apart if tomorrow both of them said they were allocating 1% of their investments to digital assets. Or you'd just start naming other billionaires who haven't invested in it yet, while still ignoring the merits.

    Finally, it is telling that you continue to ignore basic questions on the subject. Why is Buffett's position--i.e. you can't do anything with it--any different on btc than it is on the monetary premium placed on gold? How is it that you continue to think the fed could "buy all the btc"? What do you think a "fedcoin" does that creates a problem? Why do you continue to ignore Paul Tudor Jones' position on btc? He's a billionaire, he pays a bunch of smart people to come up with investment ideas, and he has invested in it. Why do you give him any more or less credibility on the issue than Buffett/Dalio?
     
  46. Harrison Beck

    Harrison Beck Hi, I'm Harrison Beck
    Donor
    Liverpool

  47. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

    Probably a fad. I remember when public companies bought $250 million of beanie babies to serve as their primary treasury reserve asset.



    TYSONS CORNER, Va.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--MicroStrategy® Incorporated (Nasdaq: MSTR), the largest independent publicly-traded business intelligence company, today announced that it has purchased 21,454 bitcoins at an aggregate purchase price of $250 million, inclusive of fees and expenses. The purchase of Bitcoin cryptocurrency was made pursuant to the two-pronged capital allocation strategy previously announced by the company when it released its second quarter 2020 financial results on July 28, 2020.

    “Our investment in Bitcoin is part of our new capital allocation strategy, which seeks to maximize long-term value for our shareholders,” said Michael J. Saylor, CEO, MicroStrategy Incorporated. “This investment reflects our belief that Bitcoin, as the world’s most widely-adopted cryptocurrency, is a dependable store of value and an attractive investment asset with more long-term appreciation potential than holding cash. Since its inception over a decade ago, Bitcoin has emerged as a significant addition to the global financial system, with characteristics that are useful to both individuals and institutions. MicroStrategy has recognized Bitcoin as a legitimate investment asset that can be superior to cash and accordingly has made Bitcoin the principal holding in its treasury reserve strategy.”

    Mr. Saylor continued, “MicroStrategy spent months deliberating to determine our capital allocation strategy. Our decision to invest in Bitcoin at this time was driven in part by a confluence of macro factors affecting the economic and business landscape that we believe is creating long-term risks for our corporate treasury program ― risks that should be addressed proactively. Those macro factors include, among other things, the economic and public health crisis precipitated by COVID-19, unprecedented government financial stimulus measures including quantitative easing adopted around the world, and global political and economic uncertainty. We believe that, together, these and other factors may well have a significant depreciating effect on the long-term real value of fiat currencies and many other conventional asset types, including many of the assets traditionally held as part of corporate treasury operations.”

    In considering various asset classes for potential investment, MicroStrategy observed distinctive properties of Bitcoin that led it to believe investing in the cryptocurrency would provide not only a reasonable hedge against inflation, but also the prospect of earning a higher return than other investments. Mr. Saylor articulated the opinion, “We find the global acceptance, brand recognition, ecosystem vitality, network dominance, architectural resilience, technical utility, and community ethos of Bitcoin to be persuasive evidence of its superiority as an asset class for those seeking a long-term store of value. Bitcoin is digital gold – harder, stronger, faster, and smarter than any money that has preceded it. We expect its value to accrete with advances in technology, expanding adoption, and the network effect that has fueled the rise of so many category killers in the modern era.”
     
    #9949 user15000, Aug 11, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 11, 2020
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  48. HuskerGuy99

    HuskerGuy99 Above Average Member

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