Official Horse Racing Thread

Correct. And he likely got that from his sire, Raise a Native.

 

No Mondialiste. The interesting Euro coming in is Mutakayyef. If you could guarantee me the summer of 2015 version of Arod, he'd be a major player too, but he had five poor to dreadful races in a row before rebounding slightly last time out. But I have a tough time going against Tepin.

The first Kentucky Derby point race is this weekend in the Iroquois at Churchill. I like Not This Time, though Thirstforlife should improve going two turns. Both have great pedigrees (Not This Time is a half to Liam's Map, Thirstforlife is 3/4's to Cavorting, and both probably have more distance influences from their respective sires). Recruiting Ready is brilliant, but he has had trouble finishing off 6 and 6 1/2 furlong races, let alone stepping up to two turns.

 

Not This Time is definitely my favorite 2YO at this point in time. Absolutely crushed this field despite breaking poorly. The time stacks up well with other races on the card. All were at 1 1/16 miles:

Race 3: Locust Grove (G3 for 3+ YO fillies): 1:46:24
Race 8: Iroquois (G3 for 2 YO): 1:45:22
Race 10: Pocahontas (G2 for 2 YO fillies): 1:47:19

Klimt is probably the top ranked juvenile right now, and there are some other interesting horses (Straight Fire, Practical Joke, Syndergaard, Classic Empire) that may be pointed to the BC Juvenile, but I'd go with Not This Time over all of them.

 

I'd need to dig deeper into the field, but at first glance, I like Connect.

 

It's a big step up in class, and I'm not sure if he's good enough to win, but Hit It Once More intrigues me a bit at least in the exotics at what should be a giant price. I think he'll sit a similar trip to Gun Runner. Even though he has set the pace in his last two starts (and neither pace was particularly fast), he has been able to sit off of horses and pass them in the past.

Biggest negative is that he was a well beaten fourth to Economic Model in the ungraded Easy Goer Stakes in his one appearance not against state breds (He did finish ahead of Cupid, though). But I think an argument can be made that he has taken a step forward since then. His last two races have been his best performances, and his workouts post-Easy Goer have consistently been faster than his workouts pre-Easy Goer.

 

Watch out for the possibility of a wet track at Belmont on Saturday. Pretty wet pattern the next couple of days out east.

Hirsch Turf Classic: Got to go with Flintshire.

Gallant Bloom: Don't have a super strong feeling other than wanting to beat Wavell Avenue. Probably would lean towards Hot City Girl.

Pilgrim: Another one where I don't have a strong feeling. I'd probably go with whichever horse is the better price between Oscar Performance and Oiseau de Guerre.

Vosburgh: This is the most bettable race to me of this group. If there is a wet track, I think AP Indian is vulnerable. His best races have been on dry tracks. And even with a dry track, I'm not convinced that XY Jet isn't the better horse. So I'll go with XY Jet. With a wet track, though, I am using Joking and Weekend Hideaway. Weekend Hideaway will be the better price of the two, so my play may well be keying him in a tri with XY Jet, Joking, Holy Boss, and AP Indian. Not locked into that, though, and if it is a dry track, I would not use Weekend Hideaway.

Beldame: Just think Forever Unbridled is too good for these.

-Moving to Santa Anita

FrontRunner: I think Klimt is the most likely winner, but Plum Dandy interests me a bit. He'll relish the extra ground. May take a small stab at the upset with him.

Awesome Again: Think this goes CC-Dortmund-Hoppertunity. Fun race to watch, not interested in betting.

Rodeo Drive: I think the east coast turf horses are better as a group than the west coast turf horses. So I'll go with Real Smart.

Zenyatta: I'll go with Stellar Wind, if for no other reason than I feel like Beholder is more likely to view this as a pure prep race for the Breeders Cup. But it would stun me if one of those two didn't win.

Chandelier: This one feels wide open. I think I'm leaning towards Zapperkat over Champagne Room as of now, but I could envision 6 or 7 different horses winning this race, and it wouldn't surprise me.

 

Honestly, I think the horse I would pick in the Classic if Chrome wasn't in it isn't even on that list. I think I might go with Shaman Ghost.

-I think Dortmund and Frosted are better going shorter.
-I'd want Arrogate to prove it to me one more time at what would be very short price. He is the most likely winner from that list, though.
-Other than Effinex, who has Melatonin beaten? Plus he hasn't raced since June.
-Hoppertunity and Mubtaahij always seem to find one or two better at the top levels
-Effinex I just have a hard time trusting.

Shaman Ghost has won two of his three attempts this year in graded stakes (one at 1 1/8 miles, the other at 1 1/2 miles), and he ran against the track bias in his one defeat in the Suburban.

 

Tepin's streak has been snapped.

 

Yeah he's the most likely winner to me. I think it's a pretty decent group of juveniles, all things considered, but Not This Time is the one I like the most. I know I'll be against Gormley (think he got a really easy setup in the FrontRunner) and against Theory if he runs, but need to do some more digging on some of the others.

On the flip side, this is the worst group of juvenile fillies that I can remember. I'd be willing to bet that the winner of the Oaks next year likely will not have run in this race. That isn't a race I want to take any horse at a short price.

What's the race you are most interested in watching? For me, its the Distaff. It'll be the shortest field of the bunch, but there are six outstanding horses (plus one longshot) targeting that race. And I think this may be the first time that I pick against Songbird in a race (though I will absolutely use her in multis).

 

Agreed on Syndergaard. He's a giant part of the reason why I will be against Gormley. I thought Syndergaard was best in the Champagne when 2nd to Practical Joke. Just think longer distances aren't better for him. One horse I need to do some more homework on is Three Rules- I don't know what to make of him yet.

I want Songbird to win. But this is by far the best group of horses she will have faced, and she is going to be pressed by Beholder and maybe I'm a Chatterbox and Stellar Wind (perhaps Beholder sets the pace, with Songbird second). She's going to have to work harder than ever going around the turn into the stretch, and still have to hold off horses like Unbridled Forever and perhaps Curalina. She's absolutely capable of overcoming it, but she will go off at less than 2-1, and that is too much of an underlay for me.

I'm not impressed by the east coast sprinters, especially the older ones, so horses like A.P. Indian and Joking will have to beat me. Think that will ultimately come down to Lord Nelson, Masochistic, and Drefong.

Have to do a lot of research for the Turf Sprint, but agree that those are a ton of fun to watch. I'll almost certainly want horses that have proven form running downhill, since some take to it, while others don't.

Of the Chandelier horses, With Honors is probably the one you'd want. If forced to make a pick right now, I'd probably go with Yellow Agate. Jamyson 'n Ginger is a giant wildcard.

 

Sounds like Aidan O'Brien is going to nominate Found to both the Turf and the Classic. Her running in the Classic would be interesting. No idea how she'd do on dirt, but she'd be the one horse in the field that could class up to Chrome (not saying a horse like Arrogate can't beat him, but facing Chrome is a big step up in class from facing Gun Runner and American Freedom)

Keen Ice is being nominated to the Classic as well. Haven't seen anything in 2016 to suggest backing him in this spot, but maybe he could be interesting as a 5YO under Pletcher.

 

Breeders Cup pre-entries have been released. These are the 14 horses nominated to the Classic:

Arrogate
California Chrome
Effinex
Found
Frosted
Gun Runner
Highland Reel
Hoppertunity
Keen Ice
Melatonin
Nyquist
Shaman Ghost
War Story
Win The Space

I'd expect the field to drop at least one horse, since I highly doubt that Aidan O'Brien runs two horses in the Classic (Found, Highland Reel). I think Found is the more likely of the two to run in the Classic, but the one thing that gives me pause is that Coolmore is such a big breeding operation, it would be worth much more to them to have a male win the Classic than it would for be for a female to win it, just for the potential stud value. So if all else was equal, I'm sure Coolmore would rather have Highland Reel run here (but I don't think everything is equal in this case). Whichever doesn't run in the Classic will run in the Turf.

Two more horses that could drop out are Gun Runner and War Story, both of whom are also nominated to the Dirt Mile. Think Gun Runner would be better off in the Dirt Mile (where he'll be among the favorites), while it doesn't matter where War Story runs, since it's laughable for him to even be in a Breeders Cup race this year in the first place.

 

I don't even think Gun Runner is running for place money in the Classic, I'd be surprised if he hit the board.

Meanwhile, outside of Dortmund, who is there to be scared of in the Dirt Mile? Runhappy? He failed to hit the board in a Grade 3 his one race this year, and I continue to think he's far more suite to racing around 1 turn.

For the Classic, still need to do my homework, but one option I'm strongly considering is to key Shaman Ghost and California Chrome in exotics with most of field. Unless something goes wrong, I don't see how Chrome doesn't at the very least finish top 3 (and I do think he will win). But Shaman Ghost should provide enough value that even if Chrome wins, you could still make a decent score. Depending on who scratches, I would consider using the whole field for that third spot (though I would give some more weight to horses I prefer than I would to a horse like Gun Runner who I think is unlikely to hit the board. Would never use War Story). I think those horses that will be just behind Chrome in the wagering (Arrogate, Frosted, and Found) all have some vulnerabilities.

 

I'm just going to stick with DRF.

I'm going to end up missing most of the races live because of work (Friday) and being at the Gopher game on Saturday (the one damn time they have a mid-afternoon game, it has to be Breeders Cup Saturday), so I'm going to have to do my betting early in the day for both days. Won't affect multi-race or exotic betting, but I probably won't do as much WPS betting as I would otherwise because of it.

 

The final field for the Classic. Found and Highland Reel go to the Turf, Gun Runner to the Dirt Mile, and Nyquist was retired, so a field of 10:

1. Effinex, Prat (15-1)
2. Frosted, Rosario (5-1)
3. Keen Ice, Castellano (20-1)
4. California Chrome, Espinoza (1-1)
5. Win The Space, Stevens (30-1)
6. Melatonin, Talamo (12-1)
7. War Story, Speith (30-1)
8. Shaman Ghost, Ortiz (20-1)
9. Hoppertunity, Velazquez (15-1)
10. Arrogate, Smith (5-2)

 

I'll try and get something up for the Friday races later tonight. Probably won't be until tomorrow night for the Saturday races.

Outside of maybe Intelligence Cross, I don't think that highly of the Euros in the Juvenile Turf.

 

Anyways, here are free DRF PP's for the Distaff and the Classic

 

Juvenile Turf:

I like the two horses coming out of the Summer Stakes- Good Samaritan (11) and Channel Maker (3). I thought that was the strongest prep on this side of the Atlantic. Good Samaritan may very well be the favorite, but Channel Maker was only beaten by 3 lengths against him last time, and that was with an adventurous trip. With a clean run, I don’t think there is a ton that separates him from Good Samaritan, and he’ll be a much bigger price. Oscar Performance (13) can win, but I don’t love the post draw for him. I think Wellabled (9) is a decent sort, but prefer him over synthetic. One other domestic horse worth noting is Ticonderoga (14). I don’t think he’s mature enough right now to win this race, but it wouldn’t surprise me if we looked 6 months from now and he was the best of this group. As for the Europeans, the only one I would consider using is Intelligence Cross (8), who I think is logical. I think Lancaster Bomber (1) will take some money, but he’s been used as a rabbit for Aidan O’Brien’s top two year old, which gives a glimpse to how his connections view him right now.

Juvenile Turf picks:

1. Channel Maker (3) 30-1
2. Good Samaritan (11) 9-2
3. Intelligence Cross (8) 6-1

Dirt Mile:

Dortmund (3) is the likeliest winner of any Breeders Cup race this year. He gets away from Chrome, and I think the cut back to a two-turn mile will be beneficial for him. I’m way against Runhappy (7), who I think is a one turn horse, and I didn’t see enough from him in his return to the races to really get a feel that he’s running his best race. I do think he’ll liven the pace up enough to get some closers into the action to fill out the exotics, of which I like Vyjack (1) and Tamurkuz (8). But I’ll single Dortmund in multi race wagers.

Dirt Mile picks:

1. Dortmund (3) 6-5
2. Vyjack (1) 10-1
3. Tamurkuz (8) 8-1

Juvenile Fillies Turf:

The more I look at this race, the more I find it one of the more interesting races of the weekend- I actually think this is a pretty strong race. The Euro’s are dangerous here, and I think Roly Poly (13) is the best of the lot. She’s kept strong company in Great Britain, especially that last race against Brave Anna and Lady Aurelia (in which she finished second by a head). I’ll also use Aidan’s other horse, Hydrangea (1), and his son’s horse, Intricately (7). As for the domestics, La Coronel (14) has been a monster since switching to the turf. Not a great post draw for her, though. My one price horse is Coasted (6). She disappointed as the favorite in the Miss Grillo last time, but that was over a yielding surface, which I don’t think she liked. Getting back on to firm ground will benefit her. I’ll definitely use her in exotics, and I may include her in my Pick 4, though I don’t think she’s as likely a winner as those other four.

Juvenile Fillies Turf picks:

1. Roly Poly (13) 4-1
2. La Coronel (14) 9-2
3. Hydrangea (1) 6-1

Distaff:

Most people see this as a three horse race between Songbird (1), Stellar Wind (5), and Beholder (8), and I get why, given what they have accomplished. But as great as they are, there are some things to nitpick about all of them. Songbird has beat up on what ultimately wasn’t that strong of a group of 3YO fillies, and now takes on an elite group of older mares. On top of that, she isn’t going to have an easy pace setup, as she will be pressed by at least Beholder and I’m a Chatterbox (7), plus Curalina (3) and even Stellar Wind has shown some speed recently. I don’t want to take 6-5 on a horse, as great as she is, that has that many questions to answer against a field this good. Stellar Wind, in many ways, is the most likely winner. She’s beaten Beholder on the square the past two races. But she is 0 for 2 at 1 1/8 miles (granted, she was just a head from winning a weaker Distaff last year), and she has been a horse that has been carefully managed to have breaks of about 2 months or greater between starts, and she won’t have that this time. And as for Beholder, she’s had no excuse against Stellar Wind in her three starts. I also think she’ll be part of a legitimate pace having to track Songbird. I’m banking on the pace being fast enough to set it up for Unbridled Forever (6). She’s the one legitimately good closer in the race, and she seems to be getting better with each start. And if you remove the 110 Beyer’s that Stellar Wind and Beholder ran last time out in what was essentially a match race, she fits right in with that top group of horses from a speed figure standpoint. I’m going to use all four of those horses in multi race wagers, but I’m hoping to get Unbridled Forever home.

Distaff picks:

1. Unbridled Forever (6) 12-1
2. Stellar Wind (5) 5-2
3. Songbird (1) 6-5
4. Beholder (8) 5-2

My tentative Pick 4 play for Friday:

Race 6: 3, 8, 11, 13
Race 7: 3
Race 8: 1, 7, 13, 14; may also use 6
Race 9: 1, 5, 6, 8

 

By the way, it shows how good this Distaff field is when the horse I picked to win it last year (and is in similar form to last year), I'm a Chatterbox, isn't even in my top four this year.

 

Lord Nelson has scratched out of the Sprint and will be retired.

 

Also, just realized that I flipped up Forever Unbridled with Unbridled Forever in my writeup above.

Damn you Charles Fipke for having two full sisters and naming them so similarly.

 

Saturday selections:

Spoiler

Juvenile Fillies: Don’t want to take a big price in this spot, and for the most part I’m against the stakes horses. But Yellow Agate (4) is the exception- I think her win last out was more impressive than it looks on paper, as she wasn’t on the best part of the track. Beyond her, though, I like a couple of the wild card horses in Jamyson ‘n Ginger (7) and American Gal (12). They showed an explosiveness last time out that the other horses in this race hadn’t shown. Think American Gal gets bet down a bit, so prefer Jamyson ‘n Ginger of the two. I think you could throw Valadorna (3) in that group, too, though I prefer the upside of the other two more.

Juvenile Fillies picks:

1. Yellow Agate (4) 8-1
2. Jamyson ‘n Ginger (7) 8-1
3. American Gal (12) 6-1

Filly and Mare Turf: I see this as a three horse race, and I’ll take what should be the longest price on the board in Queen’s Trust (11) to top Lady Eli (8) and Seventh Heaven (3). The one wildcard is the Japanese horse, Nuovo Record (13). Her best race puts here right with the top three. However, she hasn’t been in her best form all year long, and I have trouble seeing it come back in this spot.

Filly and Mare Turf picks:

1. Queen’s Trust (11) 6-1
2. Lady Eli (8) 5-2
3. Seventh Heaven (3) 3-1

Sprint: I was planning on going against him, but between Lord Nelson scratching and the expected pace setup, I reluctantly landed on A.P. Indian (5). I expect a very fast pace, and I expect Delta Bluesman (3) to set it over Masochistic (7), which I think really hurts Masochistic since he is a need the lead type. Plus Drefong (2) has shown speed, Limousine Liberal (9) has shown speed, as has Noholdingbackbear (8) at times, though his speed isn’t like others in the race. Really, every horse in this race likes to be forwardly placed except for Mind Your Biscuits (1), who I don’t think is good enough to win (but the setup may allow him to spice up the exotics), and I don’t think A.P. Indian minds tracking horses. Of the pace horses, I like Drefong (2) the most, but I want someone from further back. Frankly, this won’t be confused with one of the top Breeders Cup Sprints that will be run.

Sprint picks:

1. A.P. Indian (5) 4-1
2. Drefong (2) 7-2
3. Mind Your Biscuits (1) 20-1

Turf Sprint: Wide open race, and I could make a case for 8 or 9 of them. However, I ended up wanting horses that have proven downhill experience and success, so I landed on Holy Lute (13) and Ambitious Brew (10) as my main two. Both are coming out of wins off the downhill in the Eddie D (which was split into two runnings this year). I picked Holy Lute on top, but I like them both equally. I also don’t mind cutback horses in this spot, and the two that I prefer among those are Obviously (2) and A Lot (9). There’s more of a Euro flair this year, and while I generally am against them, I do think Home of the Brave (4) is a bit interesting. Those three make up my second tier of horses.

Turf Sprint picks:

1. Holy Lute (13) 10-1
2. Ambitious Brew (10) 10-1
3. Home of the Brave (4) 12-1

Juvenile: Strong edition of the Juvenile, but one that I think ultimately goes chalk at the top with Not This Time (10) beating Classic Empire (5). Not This Time has been so visually impressive the past two races, and he’s a horse that likes running into a quick pace. With Syndergaard (2), Three Rules (6), and Gormley (7), I’m expecting that fast pace to develop. Classic Empire has run from further back as well in the past, though that is partially a function of him not breaking well. One horse I like in the exotics is Lookin at Lee (11), who will probably be dead last and will be passing horses late- he could get a piece at a big price. If the pace isn’t as quick as I expect, Three Rules is a little bit interesting, though he’s facing much tougher here than he has ever faced. One other horse that I think has a bright future, but this isn’t the right spot, is Theory (4). He’s a Grade 1 caliber horse, but I just think they rushed him into this race.

Juvenile picks:

1. Not This Time (10) 7-2
2. Classic Empire (5) 4-1
3. Lookin at Lee (11) 20-1

Turf: Much like the Filly and Mare Turf, there are three big names, and they make up my top three. I went Highland Reel (12) on top, as I think he is more suited to the firmer turf than Found is (3), and I think he’ll be easily the best price of the three. I prefer Flintshire (4) to Found as well with the firm turf. But in top Grade 1/Group 1 fields, he has shown a penchant for finishing second.

Turf picks:

1. Highland Reel (12) 6-1
2. Flintshire (4) 5-2
3. Found (10) 3-1

Filly and Mare Sprint: This is probably the race I have the least feel for. I’ll go with Tara’s Tango (3), as cutting back in distance after running against Stellar Wind/Beholder last time out should be a major plus- it’s a move that Jerry Hollendorfer has had success with in the past. Of the two favorites, I prefer Carina Mia (8) over Haveyougoneaway, but both are logical, as is By the Moon (6). But I don’t expect to have much money on this race.

Filly and Mare Sprint:

1. Tara’s Tango (3) 8-1
2. Carina Mia (8) 7-2
3. By the Moon (6) 8-1

Mile: Tepin (8) is the big name, but I don’t think she’s come back to the US as good as she was when she went to Royal Ascot earlier this year. She’s still very good, but she’ll need to be great to win beat a horse like Alice Springs (2), who is a multiple Group 1 winning horse overseas, or a horse like Ironicus (9), who should finally get the pace setup he has been waiting for. Alice Springs and Ironicus are my main two for the race. Limato (10) will take a lot of money, but I think a mile might be a bit longer than preferred. One longshot I would mix in to exotics would be Spectre (3). She has been running in Group 1 races against older males as a 3YO filly, and hasn’t been embarrassed.

Mile picks:

1. Alice Springs (2) 4-1
2. Ironicus (9) 8-1
3. Tepin (8) 3-1

Classic: I’m going California Chrome (4) to win. He’s just been so consistently great this year, and he’s running at his home track. The way to make money to me is to find a horse to pair up with him in exotics, and to me that is Shaman Ghost (8). He’s had one bad race this year, but there were a multitude of excuses for him that race, so that’s easy to draw a line through. He’s a horse that will relish every bit of the 10 furlongs, and he beat Frosted (2) last time out at 9 furlongs. The extra furlong only helps him over a horse like Frosted. My play will be to pair Chrome and Shaman Ghost up in a tri, using every other horse in the field in the other spot outside of War Story (7), who just shouldn’t be in this race. I do prefer Arrogate (10) and Hoppertunity (9) more than the others, so I will weight my tris a bit heavier with those two.

Classic picks:

1. California Chrome (4) Even
2. Shaman Ghost (8) 20-1
3. Arrogate (10) 5-2
4. Hoppertunity (9) 15-1

My Breeders Cup Classic play:

$1 Tri:
4, 8/4, 8/9, 10
4, 8/9, 10/4, 8
9, 10/4, 8/4,8

$0.50 Tri:
4, 8/4, 8/1, 2, 3, 5, 6
4, 8/1, 2, 3, 5, 6/4, 8
1, 2, 3, 5, 6/4, 8/4, 8

The total bet above would cost $27 ($12 for bet 1, $15 for bet 2)