So here is my early top 20 for the Kentucky Derby. Numbers in parenthesis indicate their Kentucky Derby odds at the Wynn: 1. Classic Empire, Mark Casse (7) – Think he’s the pretty clear number one right now off of his win in the Juvenile, especially with Not This Time retired. 2. No Dozing, Arnaud Delacour (30) – Has had a couple tough trips in a row, but has run well against good competition in spite of that- his second in the Remsen was much better than it looks on paper. I think a nice step forward is in order with him as a 3YO. Distance won’t be a problem with him. Fun fact about the Remsen: a Remsen alumnus has finished 4th in the last 4 Derbies (Normandy Invasion, Wicked Strong, Frosted, Mohaymen). Plus throw in Keen Ice, who hit the board in the Belmont. 3. McCraken, Ian Wilkes (10) – He’s already won 3 races at Churchill, and done so impressively. His trainer is a disciple of Carl Nafzger, who has long been considered one of the best at pointing horses to a specific race, and Wilkes has shown glimpses of doing that as well (Fort Larned). 4. Beach Bum, Bob Baffert (30) – Not Baffert’s most accomplished, but his maiden race remains the most impressive performance by one of his horses in this crop. He’d probably be second if he hadn’t had an interruption in his workout tab in December. 5. American Anthem, Bob Baffert (30) – Hard to split him and Gormley from being too far apart based on their race. I give him the edge despite the loss because I thought Gormley had the better of it being on his outside. Think there is slightly more upside with him, too. 6. Gormley, John Shirrefs (20) – Had some doubts, but he proved a lot to me in the Sham. 7. Irish War Cry, H. Graham Motion (25) – Is versatile, having won both from on the pace as well as coming from the back in the pack. Motion knows how to handle a good horse. 8. Mo Town, Tony Dutrow (16) – Looked good when beating No Dozing in the Remsen. Never a bad thing to have a stakes win at 1 1/8 miles. Not sure how much better he can get. 9. Mastery, Bob Baffert (8) – I’m not as high on him as others. Talent isn’t the issue, but he seems more like a miler to me. Plus, he’s had easy trip after easy trip against overmatched fields. 10. Lookin at Lee, Steve Asmussen (30) – I have a hard time seeing him actually win a Triple Crown race, but he has the stamina and the running style to be a horse that can pick up some pieces to hit the bottom of the exotics. 11. Guest Suite, Neil Howard (60) – Thought he looked good in his maiden win, and had an odd trip when finishing third to McCraken in the Street Sense. 12. Monaco, Todd Pletcher (150) – Not a strong year for Pletcher horses, but someone will emerge. He didn’t do much in his debut at Saratoga, but it was a decent field (Mo Town finished second). He’s been very impressive in workouts the past month or so, so my thinking is he takes a big step up his next race. 13. Gunnevera, Antonio Sano (30) – Another horse that was very good at 2, but wonder how much upside he has going forward. 14. Saint’s Fan, Dallas Stewart (65) – Stewart always seems to have one. He’s shown the most promise thus far. 15. Iliad, Doug O’Neill (125) – Liked his maiden win at Los Alamitos. Do have some minor distance questions with him, though. 16. Faja, Todd Pletcher (100) – Wasn’t a great field he beat to break his maiden, but overcame a poor start to win by open lengths. 17. Royal Mo, John Shirrefs (85) – Finally broke his maiden in his third start, but no shame in finishing second to Irish Freedom (now sidelined) and Beach Bum. Still needs to mature a bit. 18. El Areeb, Cathal Lynch (100) – Easy winner of the Jerome, but not sure what he beat. 19. Favorable Outcome, Chad Brown (150) – Getting back to dirt will be beneficial for him. Have to have at least one Brown horse on this list, and I prefer him to Practical Joke, who I think wants to go shorter. 20. Dabster, Bob Baffert (125) – Finished first but was DQ’d to fourth in his debut. Thought it was a good effort nonetheless. 10 more to know: Ann Arbor Eddie, Doug O’Neill (175) Conquest Wildcat, Randy Morse (275) Formula One, Shug McGaughey (175) Hemsworth, Tom Albertrani (175) Mont Saint Legame, Koji Maki (150) Practical Joke, Chad Brown (25) So Conflated, Doug O’Neill (100) Theory, Todd Pletcher, (400) Three Rules, Jose Pinchin (40) Totality, Steve Asmussen (175)
Where would you put Unique Bella in that mix if for some miraculous reason they decided to race her in the Derby? Not This Time was my derby selection before the BC and after the BC so with the exclusion of him, I just can't fathom Classic Empire not winning unless he fails to improve at all and somebody else steps way, way up. Crazy to think that you have only ONE Chad Brown in the top-20 but I guess he's just not getting the dirt runners that the other trainers are... he's certainly getting the turfers.
I'd probably have Unique Bella somewhere in the 10th-12th range. As nice as her last race was, I don't think it quite compares to what Songbird was doing as a 2YO- she's not on her level. On the flip side, I think this is a stronger group of colts than the one we had last year. I sort of have tiers within that top 20. Classic Empire is his own tier, then I would put 2-6 as the 2nd tier, 7-11 as the 3rd tier, and becomes wide open after that. So I'd see her as the back end of the third tier. As for Brown, he's slowly getting better dirt horses (I think this coincides with Pletcher not dominating the 2/3 year old scene anymore), but his reputation is built on the turf, and likely always will be. I do think most people would have Practical Joke in their top 20, and talent wise, he is a top-20 horse. But I've seen him enough to think that he may be more of a King's Bishop horse than a Derby horse.
Which brings up the question of Syndergaard on your list. I don't think he has a chance to win the Derby, but certainly he's as talented or more talented than some of the horses that made your top-20. Was his omissions solely due to the probability that he is only a sprinter/1-turn miler?
Smarty Jones Stakes (Monday Race 8, Oaklawn Park, 1 mile, 10 points): I’m not overly impressed with anyone in the field. I do acknowledge that Uncontested (6) is the most likely winner off of a strong maiden win and a fourth to McKraken in the Kentucky Jockey Club, but he faded pretty badly down the stretch, and it wasn’t like it was a lot of horses were coming from the back other than McKraken. I think he has some distance concerns. Getting back to a mile will help, but he’s not a horse I want to take a short price with. I’d rather have him than the other horse out of that race, Warrior’s Club (2), for what it’s worth, but trying to beat them both. Petrov (1) is logical, and I picked him second, but it is worth noting the horse than nipped him last time out (Even Thunder) came back to get demolished in the Mucho Macho Man. I landed on Unbridled Eagle (5), who I think has some dirtied up form. He’s better on dirt than turf, and only two of his last six races have been on dirt. One of those was his maiden breaker (and his lifetime best effort), and the other was a race where he made a middle move in a race with a fast pace that just wiped him out by the time he got to the stretch. I can forgive him for that. I like the trainer change to Asmussen, as well. And he should be a decent price. Feel like I should also mention Rowdy the Warrior (4). I don’t like him particularly, but he comes out of the Springboard Mile, and three out of the last six winners of the Smarty Jones have come out of that race. Smarty Jones selections: 1. Unbridled Eagle (5) 8-1 2. Petrov (1) 5-2 3. Uncontested (6) 2-1
Been watching replays and my take is that it's definitely Uncontested's race to lose. Started from the 12 post, didn't break particularly well, had to rush up and get over and was still 3-wide around the first turn. I actually liked Rowdy the Warrior's performance, the horse was 5 wide around both turns and ran admirable into a slow pace to move up from 8th to 4th less than a length behind for 2nd. Those two would be my selections in this race.
I just wonder how bad the track conditions are going to be by post. Rain is moving into the area (oak lawn) and we're expecting a couple inches worth today.
Smarty Jones recap: Winner: Uncontested Beyer: 96 Uncontested (6) won the Smarty Jones Stakes easily by over 5 lengths, finishing well clear of Petrov (1), and earning a 96 Beyer- strong for a 3YO in January. He set a fair pace, and all things considered, it appears like a strong race- on paper. But I'm not sold on him in the slightest. Sure, the pace was fair (46.21 at the half), but he had no pressure whatsoever setting that pace as Petrov set comfortably behind him. A horse setting a lead that may not be slow, but is easy, is a surefire way to earn a bit of an inflated speed figure, and running on the wet track only enhances that. Those two went 1-2 all the way around the track, and outside of the two hopeless longshots who faded from 3rd/4th at the half to 7th/last by the end, there wasn't a whole lot of horses changing places behind them, either, which is a sign that the race flow favored being forwardly placed. And I still don't forget him just stopping the final 1/16 mile in the Kentucky Jockey Club. I think it is pretty likely that I'll be against Uncontested next time out at what will be a short price and an increase in distance. That said, Petrov really had no excuse to me, as he sat an easy trip, too. If I'm skeptical of Uncontested, I have to at least prefer him to Petrov going forward. Honestly, the horse I'm interested in most coming out of the race is Rowdy the Warrior (4), who finished 3rd. He was the only one you could really say improved his position throughout the race, even if he was well clear of Uncontested and Petrov, and he had to race four wide passing horses around the second turn. I don't know how good he ultimately is, but with a better setup (longer distance, more pressured pace, perhaps a dry track?), I think the difference between him and Uncontested may be much smaller than it appeared on Monday.
Uncontested had a dream trip. Lone speed, completely uncontested and unlike his previous race where he broke 9th from the 12-hole and was 3 wide after rushing up for the lead around the first turn, he dominated every aspect of the Smarty Jones. I still have no idea what he's capable of with a contested pace but I most likely wouldn't be playing him in those conditions. Watching the race I thought that Rowdy the Warrior might be able to close into the [uncontested] pace but he really didn't make up any ground on Uncontested in the stretch so I'm not really in love with him either. Essentially, I won't be looking to play anybody from this race next out unless there is a clearly pace advantage for one of the two you listed (and I listed pre race). Onto the next, race, the LeComte at Fairgrounds. First look at the entrants (entrants at Fairgrounds are posted 1 week prior) and I'd say I'm not too crazy about anybody in this race. Perhaps Saint's Fan? Most likely though we're going to be waiting until February 4th until we get any real derby contenders when Classic Empire returns in the Holy Bull.
There might not be any top flight Derby contenders yet, but I like the LeComte field a lot more than the Smarty Jones field. I like both Guest Suite and Saint's Fan, and I'd even prefer a horse like Totality over Uncontested. I'm guessing those three will make up my top three in some order, though I do need to do some more digging on the field as a whole.
LeComte Stakes (Saturday Race 11, Fair Grounds, 1 mile 70 yards, 10 points): First of all, Saint’s Fan (12), who I would have likely picked 2nd, will scratch, so it will be a field of 11. I think between Untrapped (5), Running Mate (9), and perhaps Phat Man (1), there should be an honest to fast pace. So even though Untrapped has only lost to Uncontested then broke his maiden easily, and Running Mate may be fastest from a speed figure standpoint, I prefer to take horses coming from the back half of the field. I think the most likely winner is Guest Suite (8). He looked very good in both of his wins, and in between, he finished 3rd in the Street Sense behind McKraken in a race that I thought he ran well without having an ideal trip. My only worry about him is from a price standpoint, as I expect him to take a lot of money. If I could get 3-1 on him, I’d be happy, and I’d be ecstatic if he went off at anywhere near his 5-1 morning line. Two horses I will use at a price will be Arklow (2) and Totality (3). Arklow is just a maiden, but I thought he was best when finishing second to Takeoff (10) last time out, as Takeoff had a very easy trip, whereas Arklow was up against it from a pace perspective. The same thing can be said about Totality and his trip in the Springboard Mile, as he finished second in a race that favored being forwardly placed, and he was coming from well back. I narrowly prefer Totality between the two, but I like them both, and if Guest Suite takes more money than I’d like, I would consider both of them for win bets as well if they were around their money line. LeComte Stakes selections: 1. Guest Suite (8) 5-1 2. Totality (3) 12-1 3. Arklow (2) 10-1
Perry Martin, co-owner of California Chrome, took the podium to accept the 2016 Horse of the Year award at the Eclipse Awards ceremony at Gulfstream Park on January 21, 2017. His speech is transcribed below. We only have a few of our group up here tonight, so it’s not quite as bad as our winner’s circle pictures. We won the older horse of the year award earlier tonight and everybody told me I did a wonderful job, so I’d just like to say, “Ditto.” Also, when I rented this tux, I looked in the pocket, and there was this little packet of stuff in there, and it had three lines of writing on it, and the first line said, “Desiccant.” Guy over here doesn’t know what that is. Excuse me, sir, do you do the Beyer numbers for the Daily Racing Form? Let me help you, the second line says silica gel. Still no clue? Now I know what the third line was for. The third line said, “Do not eat.” So now we know why that third line was on there. I was thinking, you know, I know babies like to put stuff in their mouths, but babies don’t know how to read, so it would be ridiculous to put that on there for them, so we know, I knew there was some segment, some segment of the population that needed that on there, and now I know it’s turf writers. Turf writers are great. I learn a lot about myself reading the articles about me. I read at least three articles that said I had a dry sense of humor, and that’s why I had to go with a desiccant joke. Turf writers really care about me. I can tell they care about me because they’re always asking me how I feel. “Perry, how does it feel to win the Kentucky Derby?” “Wonderful.” “Perry, how does it feel to lose the Pennsylvania Derby?” “Terrible.” “Perry, how does it feel to win the Dubai World Cup?” “Wonderful.” “Perry, how does it feel to lose the Breeders’ Cup Classic?” “Which one?” “You pick.” “Terrible.” Does anybody see a pattern developing? Before I go too far — I actually have, since — you said we had a lot of time, right? — turf writers, at least three articles I read recently said that Denise and I live in Yuba City, California. We haven’t lived in Yuba City, California since September of 2014. We moved to the beautiful, picturesque town of Alpine, Wyoming. Every morning I get up, have a coffee, look out my kitchen window, and the elk just look at me. It’s a lovely place. But Yuba City is a special place. People ask me why we left Yuba City. Basically, the answer is, because we could. Let me tell you about Yuba City. In 2014, Denise, me, my son Perry, Jr., and my daughter Kelly, who’s up here, we took the train to Churchill Downs, to the Kentucky Derby. People say, “Why did you take the train?” What I do is failure analysis for the Air Force, I did a lot of crash investigation, and every night at the dinner table, I’d tell the family stories about what goes wrong with planes. So for some reason, my son won’t fly. I don’t know why that is. So we took the train. And we were on the train — it’s an interesting story — one of our coworkers texted us a message saying you have to go to this link, there’s a story about you that the local news did. The local news — we lived in Yuba City at the time — the local news stations were in Sacramento, California, and a lot of people in Yuba City don’t breed and own Kentucky Derby winners, or favorites for the Kentucky Derby. I don’t know why that is. But this was a unique thing, so they sent a camera crew out. We were on our way to the Derby, on the train, and we watched this video. And here’s a reporter standing in front of our house, interviewing our neighbor. And first thing I did was look at Denise and said, “I knew I should have mowed the lawn. I knew it.” But the next thing I said was, you know, “They don’t seem to be able to separate us from mass murderers. Because that’s what they do for mass murderers, they send reporters to their house and they interview their neighbors. Well, people who have the favorites for the Kentucky Derby are treated the same way.” So they rounded up our neighbor. She came out, and a reporter said, “How does it feel to live next door to the owners of the favorite for the Kentucky Derby?” And she said, “The city of Yuba City animal control just cited me for having chickens in my backyard. If I can’t have chickens in my backyard, why can these people have a horse? That’s what I want to know.” [Music begins playing.] Chrome never lived in our backyard. He was at Harris Farms the whole time. But that wasn’t enough for the camera crew. They went on their phones and they found a local hot spot, it was the Happy Viking bar. They took the crew to the Happy Viking and interviewed everyone on the bar. Is that music for me to get off?
The field for the Pegasus: 1. Arrogate (Smith) 7-5 2. Prayer for Relief (Geroux) 50-1 3. Neolithic (Velasquez) 30-1 4. Noble Bird (Leparoux) 25-1 5. War Story (Gallardo) 50-1 6. War Envoy (Saez) 50-1 7. Shaman Ghost (J. Ortiz) 20-1 8. Semper Fortis (Gaffalione) 50-1 9. Keen Ice (Castellano) 12-1 10. Breaking Lucky (Contreras) 25-1 11. Eragon (Prado) 50-1 12. California Chrome (Espinoza) 6-5 Alternates: - Stanford (if Arrogate scratches) - Sea Raven (if Breaking Lucky scratches) - Madefromlucky (if California Chrome scratches)
Not the ideal post position for Chrome but beneficial in that he'll have options. I imagine the strategy will be to go to the lead, make Arrogate cross to the outside and just keep going with Chrome... let him dictate the pace and make Arrogate play catchup the entire race. If Arrogate is within a length at the top of the stretch I imagine he'll go flying by Chrome again as his turn of foot is just unreal.
Both him and Arrogate will need to be used early to establish position, as Arrogate will need to minimize any chance of getting caught in traffic. Especially given that Neolithic and Noble Bird drew in posts 3 and 4, and both should have some early speed. At the same time, you could have said the same thing about Arrogate in the Travers, and that clearly wasn't an issue that day.
Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Futures are this weekend. The full list of the horses are here. This is the one futures pool I'll usually make a couple bets (I'll look at Pool 3 on occasion, too). These are the horses I will be considering, along with the price I would consider betting them at: 8. Guest Suite (60) 10. Irish War Cry (35) 16. No Dozing (25) No Dozing is far and away the horse that I most likely will bet on. I'd take anything 25-1 or better on him right now, and I'd be stunned if I didn't get that, as he was 40-1 in the first Futures pool and has been out of sight for the most part since then. I'll consider boxing an exacta with him and Classic Empire and/or McCraken, as well, though usually I just stick to win betting with these. I don't feel quite as confident in getting the prices I would want for Irish War Cry or Guest Suite, which I'd be okay with as long as I get what I want with No Dozing. Theoretically, I'd bet Classic Empire if he somehow drifted to 12-1; McCraken at 25-1; and American Anthem/Gormley at 30-1, but I know I'm not getting those prices.
LeComte Recap (video here): Winner: Guest Suite Beyer: 82 I wasn’t wowed by the performance, but I thought that was a decent starting point for Guest Suite (8), who got the win by just over a length over Untrapped (5). He was definitely more workmanlike than brilliant, and he got a good setup behind a quick pace that ruined the chance of Running Mate (9), but he was very professional, and you didn’t see him drifting out in the stretch (like Uncontested did a bit in the Smarty Jones), which gives me more optimism in him stretching out than I would Uncontested, and his female side of his pedigree also indicates more distance for him (though I don’t find Quality Road, his sire, as being helpful with distance). He’s still on the slow side- the 82 Beyer he earned is a new top for him, but it’s also the slowest winning Beyer figure for a points earning race. But he has been showing improvement with each start, and he doesn’t have a trainer (Neil Howard) who necessarily gets his horses cranked early on in their career. I had him 11th on my list of Derby contenders to start the year, and that still feels about right. The horses who finished 2nd-5th (Untrapped, Takeoff (10), Arklow (2), and Shareholder Value (4)) all ran fine, but I give Takeoff a little more credit than the others, as he was closest to the pace and still held on for third, so if I had to pick one of the also-rans coming out of the race, it’d be him. But this was only Untrapped’s 3rd start, he was coming off of a minor layoff (as was Guest Suite), and the only two horses he’s finished behind are Uncontested and Guest Suite. There is room for him to improve, though I don’t love that he drifted out a bit late in the race. As for the disappointment, Totality (11) really had no excuse other than not liking the wet track, but he never ran a step. I can forgive Running Mate a bit, as he was on the pace, but you have to be concerned that he didn't outfinish Phat Man (1), who was right there with him on the pace. Think a cutback in distance is best for him.
For the Pegasus, I'll take Arrogate over California Chrome in the rematch, with Shaman Ghost rounding out the tri. It will be more of a watching race than a betting race for me, though, to be honest.
I do like Cherry Wine a bit in the Poseidon (Race 5 at Gulfstream), he's been training really well as of late, and I don't think Stanford is a world beater. Cherry Wine is the 5 horse in that race, and is 12-1 on the morning line.
And here's a link to the Kentucky Derby future wagers for this weekend. No Dozing is currently 58-1, so unless something weird happens, I'll for sure bet him in the futures, and I'll do an exacta box with him and Classic Empire. Likely won't get the price I want with Irish War Cry. Still up in the air with Guest Suite.
California Chrome definitely had something wrong with him... Arrogate still would have won, but Chrome didn't want to load, bordering on being washed out, worst break from the gate I ever remember from him... something wasn't right. Oh well, off to Taylor Made he goes. Derby trail really starts to heat up next weekend.... The Withers at Aqueduct, the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita and the return of Classic Empire in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream. Derby season has officially arrived.
Yeah Chrome clearly wasn't 100%. At least it doesn't sound serious. Arrogate just continues to look like a monster. Lucky to have him racing as a 4YO. Holy Bull should be a good race, though not sure there is anyone in that race that can handle Classic Empire if he fires off of the layoff. But it has a little bit of depth with Gunnevera, Three Rules, and Fact Finding being targeted there, plus I'm sure there are one or two more. The Sam F. Davis the following weekend at Tampa is coming up unusually strong, as McKraken, No Dozing, and Irish War Cry all are being pointed to that race. Pletcher usually sends over one or two, too. Really looking forward to that one, and I think a strong case can be made that it is the top 10-point race in 2017 (when usually it is one of the worst).
Holy Bull got stronger with Irish War Cry going there instead of the Sam F Davis. No Three Rules, though- he's going earlier in the card. Even without him, it is far and away the best prep race this weekend. Depending on how you feel about El Areeb, the Withers could be interesting, I guess, but the Robert B Lewis is indefensibly bad for the kind of horses Santa Anita has at their disposal.
Robert B. Lewis Stakes (Saturday Race 2, Santa Anita, 1 1/16 miles, 10 points): Disappointing that only five are going here, especially when there isn’t an established horse in the field that you can point to as scaring other horses off. With that said, I do think Royal Mo (1) has the potential to be good, and there is a chance he could be lone speed, so he’ll be my pick. Only Sheer Flattery (5) and Irap (2) have any early speed whatsoever, and I don’t think either is as quick as Royal Mo is. He’s only won once in three starts, but he’s never been out of the exacta, and he lost to two horses (Irish Freedom and Beach Bum) that, if healthy, would be favored in a race like this. Sheer Flattery is his biggest competition, and I picked him second, but I’m not using anyone other than Royal Mo. Robert B. Lewis selections: 1. Royal Mo (1) 5-2 2. Sheer Flattery (5) 2-1 3. Dangerfield (3) 7-2 Withers Stakes (Saturday Race 8, Aqueduct, 1 1/16 miles, 10 points): Off of his blowout win in the Jerome, El Areeb (4) will likely be the heavy favorite, but I’m willing to take a shot against him. I don’t know who he has been beating, and I’m always skeptical when a horse wins by open lengths on a wet track, as he did in the Jerome. Also worth noting that, despite the 11 length margin in winning the Jerome, he only got a 91 Beyer, which to me speaks more to the lackluster field behind him than it does prop up El Areeb. I think he’s a nice horse, but there are two others that I think have just as much of a chance as he does, and they’ll be much larger prices. Those are Apartfromthecrowd (2) and J Boys Echo (10), and of the two, I prefer Apartfromthecrowd. He began racing on the turf, but after a better-than-it-looks third on a race washed off the turf, Chad Brown gave him a chance on dirt, and I liked the way he finished as he cleared off to break his maiden by 4 lengths. He’s been working out strong since that race, as well, and of the two, I think he’ll be the better price. J Boys Echo had a tough trip in the Delta Downs Jackpot as he was running wide throughout, which can be a death sentence on that bullring of a track, but finished well just to get up for fourth. The rest of the field outside the top three is underwhelming. Withers selections: 1. Apartfromthecrowd (2) 5-1 2. J Boys Echo (10) 4-1 3. El Areeb (4) 6-5 Holy Bull Stakes (Saturday Race 12, Gulfstream Park, 1 1/16 miles, 10 points): Easily the best of the three races. Classic Empire (3) is obviously the most likely winner, and if he runs the same race he did in the Juvenile, everyone else is running for second. But I think it is fair to question if we’ll get the same horse we did in the Juvenile. He’s coming off of a 3-month layoff, and he didn’t even have any workouts after the Juvenile until the beginning of January. I see this as more of a starting point for him, and not necessarily one that Classic Empire will be all out to win. It isn’t like he needs the points for the Derby, as he is all but in the field already with his 30 points. Now he’s talented enough where all that might not matter, and even if he drops back to what he was running in the Bashford Manor and the Breeders Futurity, others will have to improve to beat him- but at that point, it would only require a minor improvement for his top rivals. Keep in mind, there have been two 2YO Champions in the recent past (Hansen, Shanghai Bobby) who made their 3YO debut in the Holy Bull and finished second to horses who had more recent form. Now I think Classic Empire is a superior horse to Hansen and especially Shanghai Bobby, and you have to use him in all exotics/multi race wagers, but given everything I just wrote, he’s not a horse that I am willing to just single, especially when you have three other horses that would only need to take a minor step up to win, while he goes off at what will likely be something like 2-5. No matter what we get out of him here, I believe we'll see him improve his next start, so if you are trying to beat him before the Derby, this is probably the time to try. Those three are Gunnevera (1), Irish War Cry (5), and Fact Finding (6), and of the three, I like Irish War Cry the most. He’ll be forwardly placed, which is always a plus at Gulfstream, and he is adding Lasix. It’s rare to see Graham Motion publicly show how much he likes a horse, which speaks to how good he thinks he could be. I don’t think I’ll get the 15-1 he’s listed on the morning line, but I would take 7-1 on him. Gunnevera has been working up a storm locally all month, so he should be ready to fire off of the layoff- I don’t love closers going this distance at Gulfstream, though, with a shorter than usual stretch. I’m most skeptical of Fact Finding, as I’m still not sure how good he really is, but discount Pletcher at Gulfstream at your own risk. Two more horses that I think are worth at least considering for the bottom of the exotics are Talk Logistics (4) and Cavil (8), but if you use them, I’d relegate them to 3rd and 4th in tris/supers. Holy Bull selections: 1. Irish War Cry (5) 15-1 2. Classic Empire (3) 3-5 3. Gunnevera (1) 9-2
In case you didn't hear the reasoning for the Robert B. Lewis being so bad, it's because Southern California had 11 inches of rain in January and most of the top horses couldn't consistently prep. There's a number of other stakes races at Santa Anita on Saturday that are a bit shorter than normal because of the training gaps. The next prep at Santa Anita should (obviously) be considerably stronger and from what I hear they're trying to lure some out of state horses... that would be the March 11 San Felipe.
The way I see the Holy Bull playing out is Irish Way Cry setting the pace and getting the rail with Classic Empire sitting off if Irish War Cry. Fact Finding will also be forwardly placed, perhaps 3 wide. There will be a solid pace set which won't bother Classic Empire but will allow Gunnevera or Talk Logistics to sweep into 2nd place. There is a possibility that Fact Finding can outlast Irish War Cry but I wouldn't count on it... I think he'll fade. Cavil could potentially sit off of the early runners but I don't think he's good enough to close into anything. 3/1,4 exacta would be my play in this race... not that it would pay well. Perhaps 3/1,4/with some hopeful combos in the show position... most likely focusing on closers though.
My Gulfstream selections (as always, not nearly as neat as mtsucalico85's) 1. 1,2,3,5 2. 11,7,8,12 3. 3,10,8,7 4. 4,6,8,2 5. 3,4,2 6. 4,6,8,7 7. 4,1,2,3 8. 1,6,3,4 9. 6,8,7,3 10. 9,1,4,2 11. 7,2,3,1 12. 3,1,6,5 -------------------- Computer program I use: 1. 5,3,1,2 2. 2,7,1,11 3. 10,8,4,3 4. 4,2,6,8 5. 5,2,3,4 6. 6,3,4,7 7. 1,2,4,10 8. 1,12,3,7 9. 6,1,11 (doesn't do FTS) 10. 9,6,1,7 11. 7,3,4,2 12. 3,5,1,6 Pretty chalky looking day... will definitely try to make my money with exactas.
I think Irish War Cry will be forwardly placed, but I don't think he'll be on the lead- I expect that to be Fact Finding or maybe Cavil, with Irish War Cry and Classic Empire sitting behind those two. My expectation is for Irish War Cry and Classic Empire to take over from Fact Finding/Cavil at the top of the stretch as they fade a bit, and those two should have enough of a lead on Gunnevera and Talk Logistics to hold them off, especially with the short stretch run. Classic Empire most likely wins that duel, but if he needs a race and is using this just as a starting point, maybe Irish War Cry takes advantage of it. I'll be doing a 3/5 exacta and a smaller 5/3 exacta, and if I get 7-1, I'll make a win bet on Irish War Cry.
I prefer Favorable Outcome (4) over Three Rules (3) in the Swale (Race 5). That's a race I'm more interested in watching than I am betting, though. I do think you could make a similar argument against Pretty City Dancer (4) in the Forward Gal (Race 6) that you could against Classic Empire (off a layoff, may need a race), with the difference being she isn't quite as far ahead as Classic Empire is with the Holy Bull field. I think Wildcat Kate (7) and Summer Luck (8) are interesting here, and I'd probably lean towards Summer Luck of the two. Will be happy to try and beat Bode's Dream (3), who always takes money yet really hasn't done anything.
this crushed me, i loved royal delta http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...cations?utm_source=NewsAlert&utm_medium=email
Robert B. Lewis Stakes recap: Winner: Royal Mo Beyer: 93 This went pretty much as I envisioned it would- Royal Mo (1) set an easy lead, and won comfortably over Irap (2), who ran second all the way around the track. It was a nice building block for Royal Mo, and it is nice to see him take a step up, at least on speed figures, but he did this against no real competition and no pace pressure. He’ll have to further improve next time out when he goes against what should be a stiffer field, whether he stays in southern California for the San Felipe or he ships to Oaklawn for the Rebel. He’s the only one worth following from the race going forward. Withers Stakes recap: Winner: El Areeb Beyer: 92 I’m still not completely sold on him, but I thought this was the best race El Areeb (4) has ran. He showed he can relax just off of the pace, and it proved that he can run just as well on a dry track than a wet track, as his Beyers between the Jerome and the Withers were comparable. The pace was relatively slow, but the fractions steadily quickened, especially after the half mile, which is a promising sign. All that said, he still hasn’t really faced anyone of note. True Timber (1) finished second at 29-1 despite stumbling at the break, then rushing up to set the pace (albeit, a slower one). It was a good effort by him, but that he finished second to me speaks more of those that finished behind him that it does for True Timber. J Boys Echo (10) was okay, but no better than okay, and Apartfromthecrowd (2) was a major disappointment. Holy Bull Stakes recap: Winner: Irish War Cry Beyer: 97 This was the best performance of the weekend, as I thought Irish War Cry (5) was very impressive in winning the Holy Bull. He set an uncontested pace, but he’s won from off the pace before, so I don’t think this is a case where he needed everything to go his own way. I thought he finished the race strongly, and he galloped out well. He’s a horse I’ve always been high on, but has never run that fast race. The 97 Beyer he earned certainly changes that. And he’s still lightly raced, so there is still room for improvement. Obviously the big story is Classic Empire (3) finishing a well-beaten third. I’m willing to give him a mulligan to a degree- he’s shown that he’s clearly better than he was on Saturday when right, and something was off with him, as he was a bit of a mess before the race and the indications are he didn’t handle shipping to the track the day of the race. Also worth noting that his connections found a foot abscess in his right-front foot. And finally, the Casse barn doesn’t always crank their top horses first time out. Tepin, for example, only twice ran a Beyer of under 100 in 2015 and 2016, and those both occurred in her first start of the year off of multi-month layoffs. I expect a much better effort next time out. At the same time, this isn’t the first time he’s shown immaturity issues, and it is hard to trust a horse like him when he has a history of gate issues like he has. I still think he’s the most talented horse in the crop still in racing when he’s at his best, but who knows when you’ll get his best? The third takeaway from the race that will get lost is how well Gunnevera (1) ran. Given the pace setup, the race configuration, and his preferred running style, he was coming from a significant disadvantage, and he also had to steady a bit going into the far turn, but still finished strongly to be a clear second. Give him a faster pace and a trace that may not be as speed favoring as Gulfstream (especially at 1 1/16 miles), and he could be dangerous.
Sam F. Davis Stakes (Saturday Race 10, Tampa Bay Downs, 1 1/16 miles, 10 points): I think this could be the deepest prep race so far, as you have two horses- McCraken (8) and No Dozing (9)- that I think are top Derby contenders; two more horses- Fact Finding (3) and Wild Shot (6)- that were also in the recent Derby Futures wager; and all but one of the others (massive longshot Six Gun Salute (5)) have run first or second in a stakes race. Personally, I’m not looking beyond the top two when it comes to winners, and I prefer No Dozing to McCraken, as he’s been training lights out in the lead up to the race and he should be a slightly better price for two horses I see equal in ability. It’s also a plus that he has the leading jockey at Tampa in Daniel Centeno, since Tampa can play quirky at times. I’m against Fact Finding, as I didn’t like the last minute change in direction going away from the Holy Bull to here- I could be reading too much into it, but it typically isn’t a strong show in confidence. He has faced overmatched fields, and hasn’t been running all that fast while doing so. I actually prefer Pletcher’s other horse, Tapwrit (7), to Fact Finding. Along with Tapwrit, I’d use Wild Shot and maybe even State of Honor (1) in exotics, while trying to completely beat Fact Finding. Sam F. Davis selections: 1. No Dozing (9) 4-1 2. McCraken (8) 2-1 3. Wild Shot (6) 5-1
Sam F. Davis Stakes recap: Winner: McCraken Beyer: 95 This was a strong start to 2017 for McCraken (8), as he made his typical move around the far turn and through the stretch to win fairly comfortably. He set the track record at Tampa for the distance, and did take a nice jump forward on a speed figure scale. All-in-all, it’s all you wanted to see out of him in his 3YO debut, and with his performance, I think I’d make him my top Derby contender as of this point. While McCraken was best, I thought the top four finishers- Tapwrit (7), State of Honor (1), and Wild Shot (6)- all ran well, and are all worth following to some degree going forward, but I think Wild Shot is the most interesting of the three. I think he’d prefer to be a bit more forwardly placed than he was, and he was forced to go four-wide around the first turn because of that. I expect some improvement next time out. Fact Finding (3) and No Dozing (9) were the big disappointments. I just don’t think Fact Finding is all that good, but the absolute no-show by No Dozing surprised me. He may have needed the race, but given the way he was training, it seemed like he was being primed to run, and he just did no running. I don’t really see an excuse for him. I’m not ready to completely dismiss him at this point, as I liked his 2YO races too much, but he has to take a massive step forward next time out to be taken seriously as a potential Derby horse.
El Camino Real Derby (Saturday Race 7, Golden Gate, 1 1/8 miles (on Tapeta)) Not in love with anyone here, as the two horses that standout on paper- Ann Arbor Eddie (3) and Sheer Flattery (5)- are both making their synthetic debut. Of the two, I much prefer Ann Arbor Eddie, as his pedigree seems much more suited to synthetic than Sheer Flattery’s does, and I think he just might be the better horse anyways. Plus, Doug O’Neill has fantastic numbers in shipping horses in to run at Golden Gate. I do think More Power To Him (2) as at least a little bit of a chance to make an impact, and if the top two falter due to the surface, could take advantage of it. I probably won’t bet this race, but if I do, it would probably be to connect him and Ann Arbor Eddie in an exacta. El Camino Real Derby selections: 1. Ann Arbor Eddie (3) 2-1 2. More Power To Him (2) 6-1 3. Sheer Flattery (5) 7-5 Also have the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn on Monday. Haven't had a chance to look at the field too much yet.
Worth noting that the Hyacinth Stakes in Japan is being run Sunday (not sure if it will be run late tonight or early Sunday morning in the US, as I haven't seen a time for the race), and someone will come out of that race having clinched a berth in the Kentucky Derby. Mont Saint Legame clinches the spot with a top two finish unless Caucus is the horse that beats him, as they finished 1-2 in the other Japanese race that has Derby points (the Cattleya Sho). It becomes more complicated if Mont Saint Legame finishes third (it will come down to earnings at that point), while if he is off the board, then whoever wins the race will earn the spot. From what I've read, this is a much tougher field than the first race. Two horses in particular, Epicharis and Foggy Night, appear tough and should be the favorites. Epicharis is undefeated and winning in blowout fashion (I don't have a clue what he is facing, but I did see his last race, and visually he looks good). Foggy Night has only raced once (and won), but has a monster pedigree: Tapit out of Grade 1 winner Champagne d'Oro, and Champagne d'Oro is a half to Belmont winner Ruler on Ice. Foggy Night also has Ryan Moore riding him, and I think he is the best jockey in the world. I think Epicharis wins the earnings tiebreaker if Mont Saint Legame finishes third, while Foggy Night would need Mont Saint Legame to be off the board. All four of Mont Saint Legame, Caucus, Epicharis, and Foggy Night are Triple Crown nominated. Could also see a couple of these horses target the UAE Derby, so it isn't out of the question that multiple Derby horses could be coming out of the race.
Quick thoughts on the Southwest Stakes: Uncontested (3) is your most likely winner, but there is a lot more early speed signed on here, so I'm willing to take a shot to beat him with some horses coming off of the pace. The two that interest me are Lookin at Lee (4) and Silver Dust (2). Lookin at Lee is the safer of the two, and more likely to hit the board, but there may be more upside potential to Silver Dust. Will mix in Uncontested, Rowdy the Warrior (5), and maybe Petrov (8) as well with those two in exotics. Trying to throw out the Pletcher horse, One Liner (11) completely.
Playing Oaklawn today, Thursday and who pops up in an OC40n2x? Jazzy Times, now trained by Brad Cox. Man oh man how this horse has fallen. This was supposed to be the best sprinter in the game at one point and now, as a 5-year old is racing on Thursdays? Woof. Won the race though at co 8-5 favorites.
Southwest Stakes Recap: Winner: One Liner Beyer: 102 Hard to argue that this wasn’t a strong effort from One Liner (11), as by any measurement this was a fast race. He was the first 3YO to hit a triple digit Beyer figure, and it seems reasonable when comparing to other times on the day, as there were multiple races at Oaklawn run the same distance. His race was 0.88 seconds slower than Gun Runner in the Razorback, but Gun Runner may be the top older male in the country outside of Arrogate, and One Liner ran 0.66 seconds faster than a decent group of older allowance horses and was more over 3.5 seconds faster than a group of 3YO maidens. Only one horse- Petrov (8)- finished within 11 lengths of him, which further bolsters how well One Liner ran. He also proved to me in isn’t just a Pletcher horse who loves Gulfstream but doesn’t translate that form to other tracks. My major concern with him- and this is why I would consider him a second-tier contender as opposed to a Derby favorite- is his pedigree leans heavily towards him being a middle-distance horse. He finished strongly enough where I think he could reasonably get 1 1/8 miles, but at the classic distances, I remain skeptical. I definitely undervalued him though. Petrov ran well, too, but he’s another horse where I’m not sure how much further he’ll want to go. Lookin at Lee (4) was a minor disappointment in finishing third, as the pace was fast enough to at least hope for him to get within shouting distance of the top two. Uncontested (3) faded badly to finish 6th, and I think it was the added distance more than anything that got him. Not going to bother with a writeup for the El Camino Real, as the race was weak and I don’t think the winner (Zakaroff) is even being considered all that strongly to go forward on the Derby trail. He’s not nominated, at the very least. It is worth mentioning that Epicharis (2) won the Hyacinth Stakes in Tokyo and has clinched a Derby spot. It was his first start of the year, and had to track a relatively slow pace, but I liked the way he finished in the stretch. I still don’t know what exactly he has been facing, but I’m at least intrigued with him. He certainly isn’t a horse I would dismiss at this point, especially as this year has been filled with a lot of good performances, but no real standout performances. Distance will only benefit him. We’ll get one more chance to learn about him in the UAE Derby. But as of now, I'm higher on him than I ever was on Lani coming into the Derby.
Risen Star Stakes (Saturday Race 11, Fair Grounds, 1 1/16 miles, 50 points): First off, it sounds like three horses (Takeoff, It’s Your Nickel, and So Conflated) will scratch. I was a little bit interested in Takeoff, so if he does run, he’s worth considering, but don’t think that will happen. I don’t think there is a star in this field, but there is some nice depth. I think you could make a legitimate argument for 6 or 7 horses to win. Mo Town (9) is the morning line favorite, and he hasn’t done anything wrong, but it is hard to completely dismiss how poor horses coming out of the Remsen have done. If Mo Town isn’t the favorite, then Local Hero (3) probably is, coming off of a blowout maiden victory that is the fastest race in the field. But he’s taking a step up in class, and he’s a horse that I would prefer to see him do it against this quality of field again before taking a short price on him. Girvin (1) should take some money, and he’s competitive on speed figures, but it bugs me a little bit that he was switched to the turf his second start after a good performance on dirt. My top pick is Guest Suite (6), who won the LeComte last time out and has been working out strongly coming out of that race. I also think Untrapped (2) and Shareholder Value (5) could hit the board at longer odds. Will mix those two in with Guest Suite, Mo Town, and maybe Local Hero (but really hoping to beat him) in exotics. Risen Star selections: 1. Guest Suite (6) 6-1 2. Untrapped (2) 10-1 3. Mo Town (9) 7-2
Couple news and notes: - Arrogate is being pointed to run in the Dubai World Cup now. Baffert will have both him and Hoppertunity over there. Not entirely sure what other American horses are going over there- I've seen Midnight Storm and Gun Runner mentioned, along with a couple others. - McCraken is going to miss the Tampa Bay Derby due to a left front ankle injury, and will instead be pointed for the Blue Grass. Ian Wilkes says it is "very minor," but it's still a bit concerning to me that his schedule is interrupted. It's enough for me to bump him back down to second among my Derby contenders right now. I'd put Irish War Cry my number one contender as of right now, but that is sort of by default. He'll run this weekend in the Fountain of Youth, which is coming up an interesting field despite no Classic Empire, so he'll have a chance to solidify the top spot or it could be a short stay at the top of my list, depending on how he runs. My top five as of right now: 1. Irish War Cry 2. McCraken 3. American Anthem 4. Gormley 5. Gunnevera There's just too many questions with Classic Empire right now to put him in the top five, and there really hasn't been a breakout performance by a newcomer that would shoot them into this list. One Liner is probably the closest, but I have distance concerns with him. Maybe Mastery will take a step forward when he returns in the San Felipe. There's legitimately a scenario where I could see Epicharis cracking my top five at some point, if he runs well in the UAE Derby and no other horses really step up between now and then. While no Kentucky Derby success, the UAE Derby winners have had some strong performances over here the past three years. Toast of New York won it in 2014, and though he didn't run in the Kentucky Derby, he finished second in the Breeders Cup Classic that year. Mubtaahij won it in 2015, ran 4th in the Belmont, and finished 2nd in last year's Woodward. Then you had Lani, who was the butt of jokes but finished a good third in the Belmont last year.
Risen Star Stakes recap (Video here): Winner: Girvin Beyer: 93 I thought it was a decent performance by Girvin (1), but I wouldn’t say I was overly impressed. He had an absolute dream trip, being able to ride the rail throughout and having all the room in the world to get around a horse in Local Hero (3) who was tiring in the stretch. It was also a race that favored horses that had at least some early speed, as outside of Guest Suite (6), the top five finishers were all forwardly placed. With that said, Girvin was clearly best, and did set a new career top from a speed figure standpoint with his 93 Beyer. But when you have a perfect trip like that, I’d like to see him run a bit faster than that at this stage in the game. As for the others, I’d have a hard time taking Untrapped (2), Local Hero, or Mo Town (9) over him next time out. Mo Town was a major disappointment, and another sign that the Remsen was not a good race. Guest Suite may be a different story, as he was the only horse that made up any ground in from the back of the pack. But while he also had a new best Beyer (I believe an 87), he still needs to get faster, and while the race may have favored horses closer up, it wasn’t a slow pace, so I would have liked to see him get at least a little closer to Girvin, and it is worth noting that he never got past Girvin in the stretch.
Making my picks here before the morning lines have been drawn, since I otherwise wouldn't get to it... Fountain of Youth Stakes (Saturday Race 13, Gulfstream, 1 1/16 miles, 50 points): Easily the stronger of the two prep races, and it is an interesting mix of horses. You got Irish War Cry (8), Gunnevera (2), and Talk Logistics (4) coming out of the Holy Bull, Three Rules (7) coming from the Swale, Practical Joke (6) making his 3YO debut, a multiple graded stakes winning turf horse in Made You Look (9), two horses whose claim to fame is finishing second to Battalion Runner in Beasley (5) and Lookin for Eight (11), an underachiever in Takaful (10), and a Peruvian Group 1 winner in Huracan Americo (1). I still think that, ultimately, the top two from the Holy Bull are the strongest horses, and where I would focus most of my attention. I still don’t like closers at this distance at Gulfstream, so I prefer Irish War Cry. I’m against Made You Look, who I think is a turf horse, and I’m also against the Beasley/Lookin at Eight combo, as I’ve never been fully sold on Battalion Runner. I put Three Rules and Practical Joke in a similar boat, where I think they prefer shorter. Practical Joke I think is more talented, but Three Rules will also be forwardly placed, which will be a plus for him. I’d use them defensively in exotics. The horse I’m most interested in mixing with the top two is Huracan Amerigo, who is a bit of a wildcard but does have that Group 1 win and has been training well since coming here. It is worth noting that his trainer, Dante Zanelli Jr., has hit the board with a Peruvian horse in the Florida Derby (Tomicito in 2008) before, so he’s had experience with this. With all the other horses in the field, he should be a bit of a price, too. Fountain of Youth selections: 1. Irish War Cry (8) 2. Gunnevera (2) 3. Huracan Americo (1) Gotham Stakes (Saturday Race 8, Aqueduct, 1 1/16 miles, 50 points): I have a tough time going against El Areeb (4) here, as it looks very much like the field he handled easily in the Withers last time out. I don’t see True Timber (6), J Boys Echo (1), or Apartfromthecrowd (7) turning the table on him. If you are trying to beat him, it’s with a new shooter, and the only ones that are even worth considering are the outside three- So Conflated (8), Cloud Computing (9), and, to a lesser extent, Action Everyday (10). So Conflated is the most established of the three, and he’s not without a chance, but this wasn’t the plan for him- he was supposed to go in the Risen Star, but passed on that after a poor draw to go here. I’m not too impressed with Action Everyday, but Cloud Computing could be a little bit interesting, as I thought his debut effort was decent. Not good enough to put him over El Areeb, though. Gotham selections: 1. El Areeb (4) 2. Cloud Computing (9) 3. So Conflated (8)
Busy with work this week, so not going to have a big writeup for the two preps today. But in the San Felipe, I like Gormley over Iliad and Mastery (those three tower over the field), and I lean towards Gormley because I know he can at least relax a tiny bit, and has two turn experience. Mastery has had easy trips in his wins, and Iliad has only sprinted so far. For the Tampa Bay Derby, I wouldn't want to take too short of a price on anyone. I don't love the newcomers (Beasley is probably best of them, but I'm not sold on him). I'd probably lean towards Wild Shot, but I'm also not willing to give up on No Dozing just yet. If it was just the Remsen where he looked like he ran well, it'd be easier to dismiss him (since that race has come back so poorly, but I liked all of his other 2016 races. Those would be the two for me, with Tapwrit third.
Work has taken over my life too and the only chance I really have to look at stuff is on weekends now... hopefully everything calms down with this job in a few weeks and I'll be back to normal. Some amazing races this weekend... The return of Kobe's Back and Masochistic... this race looks like an easy wire-to-wife win for Masochistic as it's a pretty placeless race. As always though, if somehow some pace develops expect Kobe's Back charging from 10 lengths back to take it. As it stands now though, and as much as I love Kobe's Back... there a realistic chance he finishes out of the money because there is so damn little speed in this race. Regardless... Kobe's Back is.. Back. The Santa Anita handicap features midnight storm who might be loose on the lead but god i just can't pick against Shaman Ghost, not in THIS field. In the San Felipe I'll be basic and take Mastery. In the Kilroe Mile Dortmund is making his first ever turf start. I am insanely interested to see how that turns out as he's the classiest horse in this field, albeit in the dirt. Conquest Enforcer is my selection.
I'm expecting it to be a good starting point for Kobe's Back, but there is just nobody to push Masochistic. I think Shaman Ghost is the best dirt horse in the Big Cap, especially at the distance, but Midnight Storm may be loose on the lead, and he's a close second in terms of ability, while Shaman Ghost may be up against it from a pace perspective. I hope Hi Happy can put at least a little pressure on Midnight Storm. For the Kilroe, I'm going to make Dortmund prove to me he'll run as well on the turf as he did on dirt. I've always been a big Bolo fan, so I'll lean towards him, but Conquest Enforcer is logical, and at a bit of a price, Bal a Bali has run well off of injury-induced layoffs in the past. I don't know if he's as good as he used to be, but he'll also be one of the longer shots on the board, and I don't think he's impossible.
Rebel Stakes (Saturday Race 10, Oaklawn, 1 1/16 miles, 50 points): I think American Anthem (7) is clearly the horse to beat. He’s been sharp in both of his starts, and I only expect further improvement from him. Also helps that he has Baffert in his corner, and he has historically dominated in Arkansas when he ships in a horse. The only concern I have with him is the potential pace setup, as I expect it to be hot, and he should be forwardly placed. He did show in his first start that he could sit off the pace, though. I’ll pick him to win, but he isn’t a horse I would single on top by any stretch, and he'll likely go off at less than 2-1, so there is no value in betting him to win. I do expect the other speed horses to fade, with him the last one standing, so horses like Royal Mo (10), Uncontested (2), and Malagacy (6) will have to beat me. Where I will try to make money will be in exotics, mixing American Anthem in with horses that will be off of the pace. In particular, the ones I’m interested in are Untrapped (5), Silver Dust (8), and Lookin at Lee (11), though I may mix in Petrov (4) a bit as well (I expect him to be further off the pace this time, allowing other horses to do the dirty work that he has done the past two starts). Untrapped is the one most likely to challenge American Anthem for the win, in my opinion, as he probably doesn’t have to take as big of a step forward as the others, but at the same time, I think Lookin at Lee and Silver Dust are more likely to take that step forward, as both will be in their second starts after a layoff. Rebel selections: 1. American Anthem (7) 2-1 2. Untrapped (5) 8-1 3. Silver Dust (8) 15-1
I'd appreciate it if there could be any sort of stability in this 3YO crop. American Anthem had an awful trip, but even with that, I would have liked to see him do a little bit of running in the stretch. He had nothing. And we had a horse who had yet to win in 8 starts and was 112-1 finish second. The only American horses I feel like I can trust right now are Gunnevera and McCraken, and McCraken has had some interruptions to his training (he's seems to be doing okay now, though). We finally had one performance last week (Mastery, who I clearly undervalued) that I found to be extremely impressive, and he gets hurt on the gallop out, knocking him out for at least a few months. Epicharis might be in the top three for me right now, and I have no idea what he is, other than that I have full confidence he can get the distance. I've fallen off from doing my race recaps (been a hectic few weeks for me), but I will say that one horse that did impress me over the past couple of weeks was Cloud Computing, when he finished second in the Gotham. That was only his second career start, and he was pressing the pace and held on fairly well, while J Boys Echo had a much easier trip (and had more experience).