Official Horse Racing Thread

Dubai World Cup is this weekend. PP's are drawn on Wednesday, but these are the horses being entered:

US based: Arrogate, Gun Runner, Hoppertunity, Keen Ice, Neolithic
Japan based: Apollo Kentucky, Awardee, Gold Dream, Lani
UAE based: Long River, Mubtaahij, Special Fighter
UAE/Europe based: Move Up, Furia Cruzada

UAE Derby is on the undercard- the first 100 point prep race. The two big horses in the field are Epicharis and Thunder Snow, and I expect Thunder Snow to be the favorite (and potentially a clear favorite). Thunder Snow is a Group 1 winner on turf in Europe, and won the local prep race by open lengths in his first start on dirt. I do wonder about his ability to stretch out, as he looks to have more of a miler's pedigree, so I do prefer Epicharis of the two. Lancaster Bomber (2nd in the Juvenile Turf last year) is also in the field, as is Adirato, who finished second to Epicharis last time out. One other interesting horse is Master Plan, who Pletcher is sending out there. Master Plan finished second to Tapwrit two starts back in a minor stakes, so he might be able to be used as a bit of a measuring stick.

 

These are the Triple Crown nominated horses running in the UAE Derby, and their tentative odds:

Epicharis (Kiyoshi Hagiwara): 6-1
Lancaster Bomber (Aidan O'Brien): 6-1
Master Plan (Todd Pletcher): 8-1
Spirit of Valor (Aidan O'Brien): 15-1
Adirato (Naosuke Sugai): 50-1
Bee Jersey (Doug Watson): 50-1

Epicharis and Lancaster Bomber are co-2nd choices, behind Thunder Snow (not TC nominated) at 2-1.

This is definitely a much stronger UAE Derby than last year, when the thought going into the race was it was basically Polar River and not much else, though in hindsight, she regressed (starting with the runner up in the UAE Derby), while Lani was Lani, and Vale Dori (4th in the race) has been fantastic since being switched to Baffert, winning multiple graded stakes, including the Grade 1 Santa Margarita last year.

It's not out of the question that we could get three horses from this field to run in the Derby, although it would require Thunder Snow to disappoint, and Epicharis to finish a strong third behind two of the nominated horses (specifically, two of Lancaster Bomber/Master Plan/Spirit of Valor). Pletcher likes having as many Derby horses as he can, and O'Brien desperately wants to win the Kentucky Derby. That said, I'll take Epicharis to win, with Thunder Snow second and Spirit of Valor third (prefer him of the two O'Brien horses, as his pedigree on the dam side seems more conducive to the dirt than Lancaster Bomber's does).

 

Don't think we'll see any true Derby contenders come out of the Spiral, but I like Parlor to win. He's lightly raced, but he's shown flashes in his starts, and did defeat the favorite in this race, Kitten's Cat, in his debut. I'm against Kitten's Cat, as I wonder how far he really wants to run. Convict Pike interests me a little bit at a bit of a price, as he's run well on synthetic in the past. Do have distance concerns with him, though, as well.

For the Sunland Derby, I'm going to try and beat Bronze Age. He had a pretty easy trip last time out, and that led to a monster jump in his Beyers (from the 50s in his first two starts to 93 last time out). There is more pace here, so he won't have it as easy. He's probably the most likely winner, but I will take a shot with Hedge Fund. He made nice strides in his two turn debut, and I think he'll like going longer. I also will use Kimbear quite a bit, as his dirt races have been much better than his turf races, and for what it's worth, he did defeat Sonneteer last time out, and he came back to finish second in the Rebel.

By the way, Thunder Snow was a late Triple Crown nomination, so he also could be pointed to the Kentucky Derby if he gets the points he needs out of the UAE Derby.

 

Arrogate is a monster.

 

Just going to do these full recaps for the 100 point races going forward. I didn't see anything in the Spiral to make me think Fast and Accurate will have an impact on the Triple Crown races. For the Sunland Derby, I thought Hence had a perfect setup, coming from the back off of a blazing pace, and the fact that Hedge Fund still finished 3rd (albeit by about 8 lengths) after setting the pace is an indictment on the field. Hence was a non-factor in the Southwest Stakes when he went against better competition.

UAE Derby:
Winner: Thunder Snow
Beyer (projected): 94


I thought going into it that it was a stronger than usual UAE Derby, and I came out of it feeling the same way. I liked what I saw out of both Thunder Snow (13) and Epicharis (10). Thunder Snow just edged Epicharis out, but a case can be made that Epicharis ran the better race of the two, as Epicharis set the pace that, while not necessarily blazing, was on the faster side of normal for Dubai standards, and the track early on in the day wasn’t exactly speed friendly (though this did change over the course of the day). As for Thunder Snow, he definitely ran green down the stretch, which was reported to be due to seeing the big screen at the track and reacting to that, but he did clean things up before the wire. I still don’t love his pedigree for a mile and a quarter, but he got the 1 3/16 miles with no problem, and didn’t appear to be tiring too badly. Plus, I liked that he was able to challenge Epicharis, get rebuked, and re-rally to pass him a second time, rather than giving in when failing to pass him the first time. If he comes over for the Derby (connections haven’t made the decision yet, but my guess is he ultimately will), I think he could be a major player, and should be an okay price given the lack of success of prior UAE Derby horses. As for Epcharis, it seems like he will come over to the US, but his connections seem to be pointing more for the Belmont Stakes, and not the Derby. He’ll run all day long, so it’s probably the race he has the best chance of winning of the three. I also thought Master Plan (2) ran a decent race to finish third. He’s another one that I think would be best off holding out to the Belmont, as he reminds me a bit of the Itsaknockout or Commissioner types of horses that Pletcher has had. But he’s a step behind the top two for me. I do think the third place finish flatters Tapwrit at least a little bit.

With the US-based 100 point races beginning this week, I'll try to come up with an updated top 10 for the Kentucky Derby. I'm not sure there are even 10 horses I like right now, but I'll come up with something.

 

My current Derby top 10. FYI, if Epicharis was running in the Derby, he'd be 3rd on this list, but since he is unlikely to run, I'm leaving him off for now.

1. McCraken – Had a minor hiccup earlier this year, but he’s back on track now. He’s consistent, starting to get faster, and still has room to grow. Should be able to see out the classic distance.
2. Gunnevera – Splitting hairs between him and McCraken- they are more like 1 and 1a. Giving McCraken the nod because I think he has slightly more room to grow. Gunnevera may have the best distance pedigree in the field.
3. Cloud Computing – Given that it was only his second start, I thought his second in the Gotham was excellent. His pedigree is a bit of a mystery, especially on top, but there is some distance influence in the bottom of the pedigree. Has the dreaded label of not racing as a 2YO, but the curse of Apollo will break at some point.
4. Thunder Snow – Strong argument that this is the most talented horse to come out of the UAE Derby and target the Kentucky Derby. Group 1 winner on turf in Europe, and now proven on dirt. Was very game in running down Epicharis. Even with all that, he’s still fairly green, so there is room for improvement.
5. Iliad – With Mastery gone, he’s the most enticing prospect on the West Coast. I do have some minor concerns about him going longer distances, but the talent is evident.
6. Tapwrit – Win in the Tampa Bay Derby flatters McCraken, and he was opening up on the field. But that could be more to his competition and their inability to go the distance than it was him finishing strongly.
7. Guest Suite – I have no concerns about him getting the distance for a race like the Derby, which is something I can’t say about most of these others in the crop. Whether he’s good enough is the question, as he hasn’t yet run a race fast enough to be a top contender.
8. J Boys Echo – His Gotham was impressive, but he had such a perfect trip and it was such a large improvement that I want to see him do it again before I fully buy in.
9. One Liner – What I wrote about J Boys Echo can be applied to One Liner as well. I’m actually more apt to believe One Liner’s performance of the two, but I don’t like that he will only have two prep races, and I tend to believe he’s more of a miler type.
10. Classic Empire – From a pure talent perspective, he still may be number one in the class. But I don’t know how you can trust him. He just had a workout aborted because he didn’t want to work in couple weeks back. Frankly, he’s only in the top ten because someone has to be. Other highly rated horses besides him (Irish War Cry, American Anthem, Gormley, No Dozing, etc.) have also bombed. I’m unimpressed with some of the 50 point winners (Malagacy, Girvin the most prominent), and there haven’t been many late bloomers I like enough to pass him.

 

Louisiana Derby (Saturday Race 11, Fair Grounds, 1 1/8 miles, 100 points):

Girvin (8) is clearly the horse to beat off of his Risen Star win, and with his connections entering a speed horse- Hotfoot (9)- to combat Local Hero (3), he should get a good setup again. I don’t think longer will necessarily be better for him, though, and given the price he’ll go off at, he’s worth taking a shot against on top. Have to use him in exotics and multi race wagers, though. I will be against Local Hero, as he was hitting a bit of a wall in the Risen Star, and that will only be magnified going longer and with a pace presence. The two logical contenders to Girvin are Guest Suite (6) and Patch (1), and of the two, I prefer Guest Suite. He’s been slowly improving, and he’s the one horse in the field that I feel will improve as distances increase. He’ll also be the beneficiary of a faster pace. Patch is intriguing, and he’s bred to be a two-turn horse as well. I’m not sure how much I buy that 89 Beyer in his maiden breaker, and that will probably attract some betting attention. But if that figure is legit, he’s capable of winning this. One longshot I may try to mix in is Monaco (5). He was the Pletcher horse I had the highest expectations for a couple months ago, but since then, he lost as the favorite in a maiden race, then beat a terrible field to break his maiden- as evidenced by his 12 length victory coming back with a very slow speed figure. Still it is encouraging that Pletcher is still giving him a chance here. I don’t think he’s a likely winner, but he may spruce up some exotics, and I’ll mix him in with Guest Suite, Girvin, and Patch.

Louisiana Derby selections:

1. Guest Suite (6) 4-1
2. Patch (1) 9-2
3. Girvin (8) 8-5

Florida Derby (Saturday Race 14, Gulfstream Park, 1 1/8 miles, 100 points):

I just think Gunnevera (11) is the best horse in the race, and he’ll get a great setup. The outside post, which is usually a negative, doesn’t impact him as much since his best running style is coming from well off of the pace. He’ll have plenty of time to get closer to the rail before the first turn, unlike a horse near the front or in midpack. He’s all but a single for me here. The one thing that sticks out to me, though, is this: Battalion Runner has been pointed for this race ever since his allowance victory in early February. He’s had no interruptions in his training, and has been training very well, firing off a couple bullet workouts. And he was indeed entered in the Florida Derby. However, Pletcher also entered in Always Dreaming (4), and now the plan is for Battalion Runner to scratch and run in a different 100 point prep, leaving Always Dreaming the only Pletcher runner in the field. What this says to me is that Pletcher is extremely confident in Always Dreaming and the type of race he is sitting on. Personally, I think Always Dreaming has been okay- his past two races have been visually impressive wins, but he had easy trips in soft fields both times, especially his last race, where he set an extremely slow pace and win from gate-to-wire (only earning a 71 Beyer in this last win). He’s the type of horse I’d typically be happy to let beat me, but Pletcher’s actions in handling Battalion Runner and Always Dreaming won’t let me completely dismiss Always Dreaming on top in exotics and multi-race wagers, even if 90% of it centers on Gunnevera on top. I do like this as an exotics race, as I expect Three Rules (10) and State of Honor (1) to take some money, and I think they will kill each other’s chances dueling on the front end (longer distances won’t help, either). The two longer shots I will use in exotics are Talk Logistics (2) and Impressive Edge (8), both of which should be passing tired horses in the stretch, though I don’t expect either to be serious win candidates. I’ll mix those two in with my main two, and hope that both Three Rules and State of Honor run out of the money.

Florida Derby selections:

1. Gunnevera (11) 9-5
2. Always Dreaming (4) 4-1
3. Talk Logistics (2) 30-1

 

Rough day for Gulfstream yesterday. They typically are off on their scheduled post times by a few minutes, but they were as much as 20-30 minutes off at times yesterday, and there were two times where both Gulfstream and Fair Grounds had graded stakes races going simultaneously (one of which included the Louisiana Derby). Having those races go off at the same time just limits how much actually gets bet on the race (a horseplayer will more likely just focus on one of the two races, as opposed to betting both), plus if you want to grow the game and attract new fans, you are giving them lesser opportunities to watch good horses run, but instead being forced to pick and choose. Fair Grounds isn't blameless in this either, as they fell behind schedule a bit, too, but not to the extent of Gulfstream.

If that wasn't enough, Gulfstream's timing system (via Trakus) didn't work for the Florida Derby, so it's hard to completely trust the fractions for that race.

 

Florida Derby Recap
Winner: Always Dreaming
Beyer: 97


This was a very nice step forward for Always Dreaming (2), who had looked good visually but had yet to run that fast race. The way Pletcher has handled him in the weeks leading up to the Florida Derby makes me believe that, despite no stakes appearances, Pletcher considered him his top horse. It is still a fair argument, though, that he has had a series of perfect trips his past few races. There were timing malfunctions with this race, but given how the race played out, it didn’t appear to be too strong of a pace, but he was clearly best of the horses that were forwardly placed (and too be fair, he was settled comfortably behind the actual pacesetters, before galloping past them going into the stretch). I liked what I saw, but I’m not ready to jump him to the top of my list just yet. As someone who likes Gunnevera (11), I’m very happy with where he set himself up going towards Kentucky. The pace wasn’t as quick as I thought it would be, and given that, he left himself with way too much to do to have any chance in winning. But he was flying down the stretch (if the fractions are correct, he ran the final 3/8’s of a mile in 35 4/5 seconds, which is outstanding), and picked up third in a race where nobody else made up any ground. He’ll get more pace in the Derby, and Churchill Downs is generally friendlier to closing-type of horses than Gulfstream is. All this race means is that I’ll get a better price on him than I would have had he won the race. I do have to mention State of Honor (1), who finished second and will be headed to the Derby. I view him more as a pace presence going forward than I do an actual contender. He’s been solid in his last three races, and has only finished behind McCracken, Tapwrit (twice), and now Always Dreaming in them, but he has also been losing ground in the stretch to all of those horses, and I don’t see how that improves with the distance increasing.

Louisiana Derby Recap:
Winner: Girvin
Beyer: 91


I was less impressed with the Louisiana Derby. Girvin (8) did what he had to do, and he was best in the race, but it simply wasn’t that fast, and I question how much further he wants to go. He took a minor step back from a speed figure perspective, was drifting inward a bit and he changed his leads in the stretch. He finished his final 3/8’s of a mile in 37 2/5 seconds, which isn’t terrible, but it also isn’t anything that makes me excited about him either. He’s okay, but I think he has benefited from running in the Louisiana preps, where there hasn’t been much quality, and may be up against now that he has to face better competition. I thought it wasn’t a bad effort for Patch (1) in his stakes debut, and while Girvin ran the best overall race, I though Patch did a slightly better job of finishing the race, and of the two, I think is more likely to last the 1 ¼ miles. At the same time, he’s also never had a Beyer that even reached the 90s. He’s a second-tier Pletcher horse, in my view. Local Hero (3) finishing third puts him on the bubble for making the field. If he does make it, he’s basically an inferior version of State of Honor. He’ll add to the pace, and won’t see out the distance. Have to mention Guest Suite (6), who was awful. He just hasn’t progressed like I thought he would coming out of the Lecomte.

 

Wood Memorial (Saturday Race 10, Aqueduct, 1 1/8 miles, 100 points):

I like Cloud Computing (7) quite a bit in this spot. His Gotham, all things considered, was a very good effort, and Chad Brown seems to think a lot of him. With only two career races, there is still plenty of upside with him. Plus, behind him, all I see are horses with giant question marks. Battalion Runner (3) will battle Cloud Computing for favoritism, and while his maiden breaker two starts back was nice, I thought he was just okay when winning an allowance race last time out. And there is also that lingering doubt in me that the plan ever since his allowance win was to run him in the Florida Derby, but then in the week preceding the race, decided to run Always Dreaming instead of him, and in turn shipped him up to Aqueduct. I do think most of that had to do with Always Dreaming, but I also can’t rule out that Pletcher has some minor doubts with Battalion Runner, as well. Still, at least he hasn’t run a bad race, which both Mo Town (2) and Irish War Cry (8) are both coming off of, and both should take some money. I’m willing to be more forgiving of Irish War Cry, as he had run three strong races in a row leading up to the Fountain of Youth, while Mo Town’s greatest achievement, his Remsen win, looks more and more underwhelming with every horse that races that has come out of the Remsen. Any horse beyond those four has to take a major step up to be even competitive. I could maybe see trying to work in Stretch’s Stone (6) in the bottom of exotics, but that’s about it.

Wood Memorial selections:

1. Cloud Computing (7) 5-2
2. Irish War Cry (8) 7-2
3. Battalion Runner (3) 2-1

Blue Grass Stakes (Saturday Race 10, Keeneland, 1 1/8 miles, 100 points):

Only a field of seven, but this is the best race of the three, both from a quality and a depth standpoint. You could make a legitimate argument that four horses from this field- McCracken (2), J Boys Echo (3), Tapwrit (4), and Practical Joke (7)- are among the top ten Derby contenders at this time (though I personally don’t consider Practical Joke at that level). McCracken is the horse to beat, and is my current top Derby prospect, but I think this is a good chance to try and beat him, for a couple reasons. First of all, he missed the Tampa Bay Derby due to a minor health scare, and with the Derby the following race, this may be a pure prep for him, ala Gunnevera last week. This especially is the case with a trainer like Ian Wilkes, who does a great job at getting horses to peak at the right time. I think he’d be content with a charging 2nd or 3rd, but even if he was going all out for it, there is very little pace in the race to set him up. In fact, all four of the primary horses like to be coming from off of the pace- some way from the back. The way the race sets up, a horse like Wild Shot (5) could put everyone to sleep and take the field gate to wire. He’s put in good efforts all year, even if he’s fallen short each time, but he also hasn’t been running his preferred style on the pace- he’s been taken back his past two starts, and forced to make middle moves each time. I have major questions about distance with him, but at the price he should be at, it’s worth a shot. My plan is to key him in exotic bets with the main four.

Blue Grass Stakes selections:

1. Wild Shot (5) 15-1
2. McCracken (2) 7-5
3. Tapwrit (4) 5-2

Santa Anita Derby (Saturday Race 8, Santa Anita, 1 1/8 miles, 100 points):

My main opinion in this race is not wanting to take too short of a price on anybody. Iliad (9) is the most likely winner, in my view, but the closer to the race I get, the more uncertain I am with him, as I’m beginning to question how far he really wants to go, and between him, American Anthem (6), and Gormley (8), there should be a quick pace, which will hurt all three of them. You can throw Royal Mo (13) into that group as well. I may use Iliad and American Anthem defensively, but I prefer others. There are three horses coming out of an allowance race- Battle of Midway (3), Reach the World (2), and Irish Freedom (11)- that interest me in varying degrees. Battle of Midway won the race, but Reach the World is the one most likely to emerge from that race as the winner. Problem is, it seems like everybody is on this horse, and it wouldn’t stun me to see him go off as the favorite. Irish Freedom is intriguing to me at what should be a giant price, as it seems weird for Baffert to enter him when he has two others already in the race that are more highly regarded. He finished fifth in that allowance race, but that might be better than it looks on paper, as he raced wide throughout much of the race, and that was his first start off of a lengthy layoff. The way he’s been training makes me think we’ll see a step forward from him. I don’t see either of these horses winning, but I could mix in Term of Art (1) and Kimbear (7) into the bottom of exotics as well, as they should both be passing some tiring horses late.

Santa Anita Derby selections:

1. Irish Freedom (11) 20-1
2. Reach the World (2) 5-1
3. Term of Art (1) 12-1

 

One Liner is out indefinitely after his connections didn't like the way he was training this weekend. So that leaves the Arkansas Derby with Classic Empire and Malagacy as the headliners, with Petrov, Sonneteer, Lookin at Lee, Silver Dust, Untrapped, and Conquest Mo Money also targeting the race.

After the results of last weekend, I may have to take a second look at the top two Louisiana Derby horses as well as Hence out of the Sunland Derby. I need to watch them again, but my initial thoughts were that the Wood was okay (but only just okay), the Blue Grass was a disappointment, and the Santa Anita Derby was a staggerfest. All three tracks did seem to be fairly kind to speed during the day.

Only one 3YO really impressed me over the weekend, and that was Paradise Woods in the Santa Anita Oaks. Best performance of the year by a 3YO, including Mastery's win and any of Unique Bella's races.

 

Wood Memorial Recap:
Winner: Irish War Cry
Beyer: 101


This was the Irish War Cry (8) that we saw in the Holy Bull, easily dispatching a horse in Battalion Runner (3) that had the best trip in the race by open lengths. The biggest thing detractors pointed to with that Holy Bull was that he won because he set an easy lead, but this time he demonstrated he didn’t have to go wire-to-wire. Personally, I still think the Holy Bull was his best race, but this is right with it. It makes his no-show in the Fountain of Youth that much more perplexing. One excuse that was mentioned as a possibility, though, was that the spacing between the Holy Bull and the Fountain of Youth was 4 weeks, and he prefers to have at least 5 weeks, and I think there could be some merit to that, as after each start, he has required three weeks to recover before coming back on the work tab, which gave him only one workout between the Holy Bull and the Fountain of Youth (as opposed to two workouts between the Fountain of Youth and the Wood). Unfortunately for him, the gap between the Wood and the Derby is 4 weeks. If you think he’s your Derby horse, then I think you really want to see him get at least two workouts in between now and the Derby. Battalion Runner finished second, and I thought he had everything his own way, setting an easy pace on a track that favored speed, and still looked like he was tiring in the stretch. I’ve never been a big fan of his, and I didn’t see anything to really change my mind on him. As for Cloud Computing (7), I thought he ran much better than it appeared on paper. He broke slowly, and with the slow pace developing, had to rush up to get into the race on the backstretch and predictably tired. He’ll be on the bubble for the Derby, but I hope they don’t try to force him down the path of the Triple Crown races. I’d ease up on him a bit, and try to get him set for the big summer races like the Travers. He has a world of potential, and I still think he could turn out to be the best horse in this crop. But the Derby could be too much too soon, and could damage his growth.

Blue Grass Stakes Recap:
Winner: Irap
Beyer: 93


Good for Irap (6) on breaking his maiden in a graded stakes, but he had everything go his own way. Wild Shot (5), who had distance concerns already, acted up in the paddock due to all the people there, and tired much earlier than I expected him to, which allowed Irap to inherit the front on the far turn with a slow pace and another track that was kind to speed. He held off Practical Joke (7) in the stretch, and Practical Joke had him all lined up- he just refused to pass him. I see that as more evidence that longer isn’t better for Practical Joke than it was that Irap made a huge jump forward. On top of that, it was clear that McCraken (2) needed the race, having missed the Tampa Bay Derby, and he had a sneaky rough trip, as he did get shuffled back to last briefly going into the far turn. Plus, this was never going to be anything more than a prep for him, given how Ian Wilkes likes to set his horses up for bigger goals- he worked for Carl Nafzger, who lost the Blue Grass Stakes with both Unbridled and Street Sense, then came back to win the Derby, and Wilkes lost the Jockey Club Gold Cup with Fort Larned and came back to win the Breeders Cup Classic. If you liked him, I wouldn't give up on him yet. He's definitely the one I like the most coming out of the race. J Boys Echo (3) and Tapwrit (4) both will head towards the Derby as well, but J Boys Echo was just one-paced throughout, and actually lost ground to the top two from the halfway point and onward, which you don’t like to see from a closer, while Tapwrit never ran a step, and it’s hard to consider him in a race like the Derby after an effort that poor.

Santa Anita Derby Recap:
Winner: Gormley
Beyer: 88


As negative as I was for the Blue Grass, the Santa Anita Derby was even worse. Battle of Midway (3), Royal Mo (13), and American Anthem (6) set a blistering pace, and somehow Battle of Midway and Royal Mo stuck around to finish second and third behind Gormley (8), who wasn’t sitting too far behind them. They completed the final 3/8’s in over 40 seconds, which is horrific, and yet somehow nobody made a move from the back of the pack to seriously challenge them outside of Reach the World (2), who finished in 4th. Throw in Iliad (9), who finished 5th, and you had the top five runners all finish within two lengths of each other, which is usually a sign of a weak race. The strongest sign of this being a weak race, though, is that the final time was 1:51.16, which is the slowest since 1954, and only one other Santa Anita Derby even was 1:50+ in that time frame. Maybe Santa Anita was a little bit slower than normal, but Paradise Woods (who was phenomenal) in the Santa Anita Oaks ran her race in 1:42.53 at 1 1/16 miles, and extracting that out to 1 1/8 miles, probably gets her somewhere between 1:48.50-1:49. One more sign of how poor this race was: there were only three Derby point races in 2017 that had a lower number: Guest Suite’s 82 in the LeComte (who went on to disappoint), and then the two synthetic races (Zakaroff in the El Camino Real Derby; Fast and Accurate in the Spiral). Great company for Gormley to be in. He does get his second Grade 1 win, so congrats to him for that. But I don’t know how you back him, Battle of Midway, or Royal Mo (if he gets in) in the Derby.

 

Arkansas Derby (Saturday Race 11, Oaklawn Park, 1 1/8 miles, 100 points):

Anyone who says they know what Classic Empire (2) is going to do is lying to themselves. If he runs back to his Breeders Cup form, then he wins this race by open lengths. But do you want to take 8/5 or less on a horse that has only run once this year and disappointed greatly, has had some minor injury issues, and has had days where he decided he didn’t want to train. He’s the most likely winner, but I can’t take him at that short of a price. I do prefer him to the other headliner in the race, Malagacy (12), who drew poorly going on the far outside and a horse that I have distance concerns with anyways. The problem is, who do you take if not those two? I feel like Petrov (4) and Untrapped (9) will both take some money, but I don’t like them going longer either, and they couldn't beat Malagacy the first time around. Though I've liked Untrapped in the past, so now that I'm off of him, this will be the time he'll finish the job. Rockin Rudy (1) has speed figures that are competitive, but those are sprinting on the turf. I can use Silver Dust (3) and Lookin at Lee (6) underneath, and with a move forward, maybe one of them could steal it if there is a fast pace. I prefer Silver Dust of the two, as he is more lightly raced, while Lookin at Lee has just been running the same races he was as a 2YO. The horse I’ll give a small shot to is Conquest Mo Money (11), as he has experience running at the distance and he put in a good effort finishing second to Hence in the Sunland Derby. He finished ahead of Irap in his last two starts, and while I didn’t think too highly of the Blue Grass as a whole, it does in a way validate the form of the Sunland races. I don’t love Conquest Mo Money, but with the issues Classic Empire has, and how mediocre I thought the horses coming out of the Rebel ran, I’ll give him a shot at a price.

Arkansas Derby selections:
1. Conquest Mo Money (11) 15-1
2. Classic Empire (2) 8-5
3. Silver Dust (3) 20-1

 

Only if it's Classic Empire that wins. If Malagacy or anyone else were to win, I don't see them being favored over Always Dreaming (who would probably be the favorite right now).

 

Can't complain too much, since I still made some decent money, but if only Conquest Mo Money could have held on for the win....

But I agree, I don't think that was a great race by any means at first glance.

 

So with all point races completed, here are the final point standings. Putting asterisks on Conquest Mo Money and Fast and Accurate because neither are Triple Crown nominated, but both connections have indicated that they will likely pay the $200,000 supplemental fee to run them.

1. Girvin
2. Classic Empire
3. Gormley
4. Irap
5. Irish War Cry
6. Thunder Snow
7. Always Dreaming
8. Gunnevera
9. Practical Joke
10. J Boys Echo
11. State of Honor
*12. Conquest Mo Money
13. Tapwrit
14. Malagacy
15. Hence
*16. Fast and Accurate
17. McCraken
18. Battle of Midway
19. Patch
20. Battalion Runner
----------------------------
21. Cloud Computing
22. Untrapped
23. Lookin at Lee
24. Sonneteer
25. Royal Mo
26. Local Hero

 

He still has a chance to get in there. Both Practical Joke and Cloud Computing have the same owners/trainer, so my guess is they'd be content on just rolling with Practical Joke. Then, if Asmussen has any say, he could decide to not target Untrapped (who he also trains) in favor of Lookin at Lee. In that case, he'd only need one horse to drop out to get in.

 

Conquest Mo Money will wait for the Preakness, and it sounds unlikely that Cloud Computing will run, so Untrapped has moved into the top 20; Lookin at Lee is now 21st on the list.

In non-Triple Crown news, Tepin was retired today. She's fine physically, but according to her trainer, "We just think she doesn't want to do it anymore...She just doesn't have the same desire to train, and we said all along if she showed that to us we would listen."

 

Arkansas Derby Recap:
Winner: Classic Empire
Beyer: 94


I thought that was a decent rebound effort by Classic Empire (2). I’ve seen a lot of talk about him overcoming a tough trip, and he did have some minor traffic issues, but I didn’t think the trip was that bad all things considered. His final fractions were solid, all things considered. The main question I have will be does he move forward off of this effort, or given his erratic winter/spring, is it asking too much to go into a race like the Derby on only one representative effort? And I also think it could be fair to ask if his Breeders Cup was the outlier, whereas this was a more representative effort from him. I don’t know that I would completely toss him, but as the Derby favorite, there are others I am likely to be more interested in than him. Conquest Mo Money (11) was on a solid to fast pace, and never had much of a breather- as soon as longshot Grandpa’s Dream (3) dropped out, he was attacked by Malagacy (12). He then dispatched Malagacy, but understandably tired and couldn’t hold off Classic Empire. For whatever it’s worth, Conquest Mo Money passed Classic Empire back on the gallop out. He’s going to target the Preakness. Meanwhile, Lookin at Lee (6) had a great trip for most of the race, but thought that he was given a poor and indecisive ride in the stretch- partially due to Conquest Mo Money and Malagacy drifting in and out ahead of him- as Lookin at Lee shifted lanes multiple times, and this may have stunted his momentum a bit. Even with that, his final 3/8’s of a mile he got in 37 1/5 seconds and his final eighth was in 12 1/5 seconds, both of which are among the best in the crop in the final preps. Lookin at Lee is also one of the few horses that I think will improve going longer, so while I don’t know if he’s good enough to win a race like the Derby, he’s capable of hitting the board. Malagacy and Untrapped (9), who finished 5th and 6th, both have the points to be in the Derby, but this race only further my belief that they want shorter, and I feel at least one, if not both, will pass on the Derby. Sonneteer (7) will probably be right on the bubble (he’s currently 22nd on the points list, assuming Cloud Computing skips), and even though he is a maiden, I could see why he’d be an interesting exotics horse if he got in, as he was flying down the stretch. But to me, there will be other closers that I prefer over him.

 

Malagacy and Battalion Runner will not run in the Derby. Lookin at Lee and Sonneteer now get into the field. Royal Mo is now next in line if anyone else drops out.

 

Kentucky Oaks draw:

1. Ever So Clever, L. Contreras, 20-1
2. Lockdown, J. Ortiz, 20-1
3. Mopotism, M. Gutierrez, 20-1
4. Paradise Woods, F. Prat, 5-2
5. Jordan’s Henny, J. Rocco Jr., 30-1
6. Vexatious, K. Desormeaux, 20-1
7. Farrell, C. Hill, 5-1
8. Sailor’s Valentine, C. Lanerie, 30-1
9. Wicked Lick, B. Hernandez Jr., 30-1
10. Miss Sky Warrior, P. Lopez, 9-2
11. Tequilita, L. Saez, 20-1
12. Daddys Lil Darling, J. Leparoux, 20-1
13. Abel Tasman, M. Smith, 5-1
14. Salty, J. Rosario, 6-1
15 (AE) Summer Luck, J. Castellano, 30-1

If Paradise Woods runs back or even just close to her race in the Santa Anita Oaks, everyone else here is running for second. She'll be a single for me in multi race bets.

 

Yeah I want to see the post position draw first, but the three I have the most interest in as of now are Gunnevera, Thunder Snow, and McCraken. From a pure win bet standpoint, those are really the only three I could see myself betting. If I do multi race betting, I'd probably include 1 or 2 other horses with those three, mainly from the list Powe has above, but not sure if I will go that route or not.

That said, the vast majority of my bets will be tied up in exotics, and I still have a lot of work to in figuring out what I want to do with those.

 

The draw for the Kentucky Derby:

1. Lookin at Lee, C. Lanerie, 20-1
2. Thunder Snow, C. Soumillon, 20-1
3. Fast and Accurate, C. Hill, 50-1
4. Untrapped, R. Santana Jr., 30-1
5. Always Dreaming, J. Velasquez, 5-1
6. State of Honor, J. Lezcano, 30-1
7. Girvin, M. Smith, 15-1
8. Hence, F. Geroux, 15-1
9. Irap, M. Gutierrez, 20-1
10. Gunnevera, J. Castellano, 15-1
11. Battle of Midway, F. Prat, 30-1
12. Sonneteer, K. Desormeaux, 50-1
13. J Boys Echo, L Saez, 20-1
14. Classic Empire, J. Leparoux, 4-1
15. McCraken, B. Hernandez Jr., 5-1
16. Tapwrit, J. Ortiz, 20-1
17. Irish War Cry, R. Maragh, 6-1
18. Gormley, V. Espinoza, 15-1
19. Practical Joke, J. Rosario, 20-1
20. Patch, T. Gaffalione, 30-1
AE (21). Royal Mo, G. Stevens, 20-1
AE (22). Master Plan, J. Velasquez, 50-1

 

Free DRF PPs for the Oaks/Derby:

Kentucky Oaks
Kentucky Derby

 

I think if I key someone, it is more likely to be Gunnevera, and I'm leaning towards that being my main play right now. Don't see a whole lot of difference between the two, and while I don't think McCraken will have any issues going longer, I have absolutely no doubt that Gunnevera will appreciate the extra distance. Add in that Gunnevera should be at least twice the price, and that gives me the slight edge over him. McCraken is my number two, though.

 

Here are some quick picks for Oaks day on Friday:

Race 5- La Troienne:
1. Finest City (8) 6-5
2. Go Maggie Go (9) 8-1
3. Impasse (2) 20-1

Race 6- Alysheba:
1. Breaking Lucky (2) 4-1
2. American Freedom (9) 3-1
3. International Star (6) 12-1

Race 7- Turf Sprint:
1. Maniacal (5) 12-1
2. Pure Sensation (8) 5-2
3. Holding Gold (3) 4-1

Race 8- Eight Belles:
1. Florida Fabulous (9) 9-2
2. Benner Island (1) 10-1
3. Union Strike (2) 3-1

Race 10- Edgewood: (assuming La Coronel scratches)
1. Stallion Heiress (6) 6-1
2. India Matuana (4) 5-1
3. Storm the Hill (8) 12-1

Race 11- Kentucky Oaks:
1. Paradise Woods (4) 5-2
2. Salty (14) 6-1
3. Abel Tasman (13) 5-1

- For the Oaks, Paradise Woods is a single for me. I'd mix in Salty, Abel Tasman, Vexatious (6), and Daddy's Lil Darling (12) in second and third in trifectas, maybe mixing in Miss Sky Warrior (10) defensively (but really hoping to beat her). Going to try and beat Farrell (7) completely.

 

Honestly depends on the type of bet for me and/or if I'm betting on track or online. If I'm doing WPS betting, then I try to wait until there is less than 5 minutes to make my bets (will be 10 minutes or less on track just in case lines are moving slow). But I need to make sure I'm getting a playable price with my horse.

For exotics (exactas, tris, supers, etc.) or multi-race wagers, I'll try to plan those out in advance before the start of the card, so those I'm willing to bet earlier. On a typical day, I still try to wait until the race prior has completed, just in case their is a track bias that develops (or if it rains mid-card), but 95% of the time, I could make those type of bets at the start of the day (or for the Derby, even the day before), and still feel strong about it.

 

Superfectas are $1 minimum on Derby day.

 

Quick selections for Saturday's Derby undercard:

Race 6- Humana Distaff:
1. Carina Mia (7) 2-1
2. Finest City (5) 8-5
3. Paulassilverlining (2) 7-2

Race 7- Churchill Distaff Turf Mile:
1. Believe in Bertie (4) 6-1
2. Miss Temple City (2) 9-5
3. Roca Rojo (6) 3-1

Race 8- Pat Day Mile:
1. No Dozing (5) 5-1
2. Local Hero (1) 5-1
3. You’re To Blame (10) 10-1

Race 9- American Turf:
1. Made You Look (9) 6-1
2. Arklow (6) 12-1
3. Good Samaritan (10) 5-1

Race 10- Churchill Downs:
1. Denman’s Call (12) 8-1
2. Clearly Now (5) 6-1
3. Tom’s Ready (13) 15-1

Race 11- Woodford Reserve Turf Classic:
1. World Approval (7) 6-1
2. Divisidero (2) 4-1
3. Kasaqui (1) 10-1

 

Horse by horse breakdown of the Derby. Spoilered for length:

Spoiler

1. Lookin at Lee, 20-1: The distance increase will help him, and he should be running at the end, but there are other closers I prefer over him. I could maybe use him in 3rd or 4th, but that’s about as far as I’d go.

2. Thunder Snow, 20-1: Not the ideal post draw, but I still like him quite a bit. I thought the UAE Derby was a strong race, and an argument could be made it was the strongest final prep. He’s still a bit immature, but in his two dirt races, he’s shown both brilliance (UAE 2000 Guineas) and grit (UAE Derby). I picked him third, but he’ll be a major part of my play.

3. Fast and Accurate, 50-1: My leading candidate to finish last. He’s too slow, and he’s a turf/synthetic horse at that. Will be a pace presence, though.

4. Untrapped, 30-1: He’s been fading down the stretch his past couple of races, and the increasing distance will only hurt him. Not using.

5. Always Dreaming, 5-1: He’s a tough call. I get the feeling that he’s going to be a horse that finishes either in the top two or finishes 15th or worse. If a horse wins by 5+ lengths, he’s probably the one, but that would rely upon him transferring his Gulfstream form over to another track, which is no guarantee with a Pletcher horse. He’s had easy trips in all of his races this year, and while his last actual work was strong, he’s been acting up and on edge in all of his morning gallops this week, which is not something you want to see, because if he can’t relax then, how is he going to relax on Derby day? I’ll use him defensively, but I’m really hoping to beat him.

6. State of Honor, 30-1: He’s another horse that should be forwardly paced, but that I have major distance concerns about. Not using.

7. Girvin, 15-1: He was already a horse I was sort of leaning against anyways, but seeing him miss a work and having foot issues within two weeks of the race makes is easier to be against him. Not using.

8. Hence, 15-1: Pace advantage or not, he won the Sunland Derby going away, and that race has came back extremely live. He’s turned into the wise guy horse because of that, so if you liked Hence, you probably won’t get the price you were hoping for. He’s not in my top four, but if I were to expand to five, he’d be right there. I’ll use him in my exotics.

9. Irap, 20-1: He had everything his own way in the Blue Grass, from being forwardly placed on a soft pace on a speed favoring track to having at least one horse behind him not fully cranked to actually win the race. He’ll have to prove it to me again. Not using.

10. Gunnevera, 15-1: Here’s my top pick and my key horse. He had a nice setup in the Fountain of Youth, but he won authoritatively, and in his other two starts of the year, he was up against it from a pace and trip perspective and still ran well. He has the fastest closing 3/8ths of a mile in the race, which has proven to be a good indicator of a horse that will thrive with the increase in distance. And he’s been running all year at Gulfstream, a track that usually doesn’t play to closing horses. Churchill should suit him better. On top of that, he has the top jockey in the nation riding him in Castellano, and one of the few races he’s yet to win is the Derby. Got to think he’ll win one at some point, and he has the horse this time to do so.

11. Battle of Midway, 30-1: He did well to hang around after being on the pace in the Santa Anita Derby, but he was staggering down the stretch. I’m against all the Santa Anita horses. Not using.

12. Sonneteer, 50-1: He’s still a maiden, and I don’t see how he breaks his maiden in this race of all races. That said, if you are looking for an absolute bomb in the bottom of your exotics, he’s worth a look. To be honest, I view him and Lookin at Lee very similarly, but for the Derby, I prefer Sonneteer over him slightly because a) he’ll be twice the price and b) he has a more experienced jockey aboard (Desormeaux) when it comes to weaving through 15+ horses in the Derby. Probably wouldn’t go higher than 3rd or 4th though.

13. J Boys Echo, 20-1: I’m taking the view that his Gotham (where he had an ideal trip) is an outlier, and without that race, he just hasn’t shown he’s really good enough to be a contender here. Not using.

14. Classic Empire, 4-1: His Breeders Cup Juvenile remains the best race any horse in this field has run, but given the year he has had (no show in Holy Bull, refused to work one week, minor injuries), he’s hard to trust. The Arkansas Derby was a nice step forward, but now you’re asking him to run back on three weeks with really only that race as a foundation to build off of. And it wasn’t as if the Arkansas Derby was all that fast. I don’t want him as the favorite, or even as one of the favorites. I may use him defensively in exotics, but he’s a horse I will try to completely beat in the top spot.

15. McCracken, 5-1: He’s a major contender. He’s proven he loves Churchill, and he was very impressive his first start of this year. And he had plenty of excuses for his 3rd place finish in the Blue Grass- slow pace on a speed favoring track. More importantly, though, is that his connections (especially Ian Wilkes, his trainer) viewed the Blue Grass as a pure prep, and Wilkes is from the school of Carl Nafzger in terms of being able to get a horse primed for a particular race. I expect him to take a nice step forward in the Derby. I picked him second.

16. Tapwrit, 20-1: He’s been training extremely well this week, with a lot of people that take in the horses each morning mentioning he’s been the most impressive. With that said, slow pace or not, he never showed any sort of run in the Blue Grass, and it is hard to take him off of a total non-effort. Given how well he has looked, I haven’t completely ruled out using him underneath, but most likely I will be against him.

17. Irish War Cry, 6-1: I still don’t know what happened in the Fountain of Youth, but there are only 4 triple digit Beyers in the field, and he has two of them with his wins in the Holy Bull and the Wood. You take those two races as the representative Irish War Cry, and he’s one of the top contenders. He did get good trips in both of those wins, though, and he won’t have things quite as easy this time around. But I still want to use him. I picked him 4th.

18. Gormley, 15-1: One of three multiple Grade-1 stake winners in the field, but despite winning the Santa Anita Derby, he’s gradually been getting slower this year in terms of speed figures, and he only won the Santa Anita Derby because he had the best trip. As I mentioned, any horse from Santa Anita will have to beat me. Not using.

19. Practical Joke, 20-1: I respect his talent, but I remain adamant that he’ll ultimately be a miler, and that longer isn’t better. Him not being able to get by Irap in the Blue Grass is only more evidence of this. Post draw wasn’t good for him, either. He’s a potential 2018 Met Mile winner, but I don’t want him at a mile and a quarter. Not using.

20. Patch, 30-1: I think he has a nice future, but this might be too much, too soon for him. Still, with a better draw, I could have seen him maybe sneaking into the back of the exotics, but with the outside post, that’s just enough for me to pass on him. Not using.

Kentucky Derby selections:
1. Gunnevera (10) 15-1
2. McCracken (15) 5-1
3. Thunder Snow (2) 20-1
4. Irish War Cry (17) 6-1

 

Kind of depends on the race. A race like the first one (Humana Distaff) I probably won't bet at all. Race 7 would be a pure win bet on my top pick, but I would have to get every bit of that 6-1 morning line, otherwise I'll pass on that race too.

Race 8 and 9 I don't have too strong of an opinion on- I have about 3 or 4 horses in each race that I would track their odds, and make a win bet if I get something I think is value. But I won't have a ton of money in those races.

Of those races, Race 10 is the one I have the strongest opinion on. I would do a win bet on Denman's Call (assuming I get something close to that 8-1 morning line, wouldn't go less than 5-1) and also do a tri keying him with Clearly Now, Tom's Ready, Masochistic (2), El Kabeir (8), Limousine Liberal (9). I would use Masochistic less than the others, as he's a favorite I would like to try and beat in the top spot. Here is how I would structure that bet:

12
2, 5, 8, 9, 13
2, 5, 8, 9, 13

5, 8, 9, 13
12
2, 5, 8, 9, 13

5, 8, 9, 13
2, 5, 8, 9, 13
12

For a base bet of $0.50, the above bet would cost $26.

Race 11, I'll probably do an exacta with Divisidero/World Approval on top, then Divisidero/World Approval/Kasaqui in the second spot. I also may do the Oaks/Woodford Reserve/Derby Pick 3, and I would use Divisidero/World Approval for that leg (using Paradise Woods in the Oaks and Thunder Snow/Gunnevera/McCraken in the Derby)

 

He's never been a good workhorse, though. I'm not too concerned about it.

 

To be honest, probably not. Thunder Snow won the UAE Derby with the track having some moisture in it, Hence broke his maiden on a wet track. Gunnevera finished a closing second in his debut at 5 furlongs to a very good sprint horse (Three Rules) on a wet track. There aren't any horses I would necessarily move up or fade away from due to the wet track (I know some people want to move Gormley up on a wet track, but I'm not buying that).

Now if a wet track leads to a speed favoring track, as it has been today, that could affect things, but even today, you've had some horses make up ground in the stretch (International Star in the Alysheba, for example). So I don't think I'll change anything, at least for the Derby.

For the undercard, I'd need to take a closer look at that, but since I'm doing fewer exotic bets and more looking at win bets, I'll play that by ear tomorrow.