Yeah I still singled her on top. We'll have to see how she handles a wet track, but very few of these horses are proven on a wet track. It is helpful to be forwardly placed, today, and she'll be on or near the pace.
You guys might be interested in the derby preview at https://www.illiniboard.com/story/2017/5/3/kentucky-derby-preview/ Guy spends a ton of time on these
I can do that. For the next race, If I can get the 3-1 that Carina Mia currently is, then I will bet her to win. 5/2 or less, I'm going to pass the race.
No worries if you cant. I locked a couple of them in based on your writeups for the undercard plus actual Derby race. I wont be by a computer after 2PMCST so just wanted to lock something in case I am distracted and cant get onto my phone. Appreciate all your info though
Churchill Distaff Turf Mile: The horse I'm going to watch the odds for is Believe in Bertie (4). This is a giant step up in class for her, but outside of maybe Hillhouse High, there is no speed in the field. Pure pace play for me. She is currently 6-1, and I would take anything 4-1 or better.
Yeah it is. He's been a part of their horse racing coverage the past couple of years. The first time NBC had him on, he picked the winner in the two races that were televised, and pretty sure both were at least 10-1. Been a part of it ever since.
Damn it, Believe in Bertie took a ton of money late. Not going to pull my bet now, but don't like 7-2.
Locked Bertie in this morning as a "place" bet, then did a small on Bertie to win. Fucker was up the whole way til that final stride. Damn
There are about 4 or 5 horses I am looking at in this race, but two horses I didn't list before who move up with a sloppy track are Uncontested (4) and Sonic Mule (11). So I'll follow the odds of those two plus No Dozing (5), Local Hero (1), and You're To Blame (10). Odds I would take on those 5: No Dozing: 9-2 Uncontested: 9-2 Local Hero: 6-1 You're To Blame: 12-1 Sonic Mule: 12-1
Wasn't planning on doing exotics on this race, but instead of going the win bet route, I'm doing this trifecta: 1, 4, 5 1, 4, 5, 10, 11 1, 4, 5, 10, 11
No Dozing is going to be tough to beat here.... looks to be a good amount of speed in this race and No Dozing should be able to clean up the tiring horses.
He's the most likely winner, and I picked him on top, but I've picked him to win every race this year, and was my Derby future bet. He's failed me all year long. Yet I still can't get away from him, even with all the money I've wasted on him.
Track looks to be drying out pretty quickly now... I expect it to be upgraded within the next race or so
The two horses I'm looking at in the American Turf are Made You Look and Arklow. Would need every bit of their morning line (6-1 for Made You Look; 12-1 for Arklow) to bet them. Good Samaritan (10), if he is ready to fire off of the layoff, is the best. He'll be too short for me to bet, but mixing him in with Made You Look and Arklow wouldn't be a terrible bet. Really trying to beat Oscar Performance, who ran poorly in his first race of the year.
Leaning towards just doing a win bet on Made You Look at this point. May do a small exacta saver with him, Good Samaritan, and Arklow, but the win bet is my main play, assuming he stays around the 8-1 he currently is at.
It's a rabbit hole that gets deeper and deeper and deeper and deeper. You have no idea how deep this shit goes... it's not at all about "which horse is the fastest"
I goto the local track like 3-4x a year, its always fun. I didnt realize the local site I use for sports betting has a racebook if I log onto an actual computer.
Each race is an insane puzzle where the best horse only wins about 1/3 of the time... pace is *EVERYTHING* in horse racing and being able to properly predict pace can win you a lot of money... but it's fucking difficult as shit to do. Fun as hell to know that if early pace is hot that more than likely a horse from the back of the pack is going to make a huge run to win or get into the money... also super helpful in playing exotics. Off that tangent now... this shit is fucking insanely deep though.
As you can tell I am new to this shit. If I for some reason bet a horse to Show, but also bet it to win, and it wins...do I technically win both those bets?
Denman's call has REALLY stepped up as a 4 year old... just sayin 41% chance he improves on his last performance in this race
I like Denman's Call (12) quite a bit here. Will be doing a win bet on him- I'd be willing to go as low as 9/2, but I expect him to stay around that 8-1 that he is currently.
Only thing I question is exactly how much speed is in this race.... Masochistic might be loose on the lead.