Sitting here with my girlfriend and I told her "14 and 9 are the only horses that can challenge the 2 horse in speed and the 1 will come running late into 2nd or 3rd position." Nailed the shit, just had the wrong horse at the top. Limousine Liberal's thorographs were horrific looking... 59% chance to drastically decline. Oh well... onto the next and everybody's favorite horse Divisadero
Wish Denman's Call would have been slightly further back, but he didn't have a ton of running room in the stretch. Limousine Liberal was clearly best, though.
I thought Denman's Call got pinched in the stretch and lost all forward momentum... still not sure if he would have won but he would have been right there with Awesome Slew
Yeah he definitely got pinched- Awesome Slew was on one side, don't remember who it was on his other side.
World Approval scratched, which changes the whole strategy for me. I think I'm going to key Kasaqui (1) in 2nd and 3rd in a trifecta. He hates to win, but is always in the mix. Will use Divisidero, Beach Patrol, Bal a Bali, Can'thelpbelieving, and Ballagh Rocks with him.
Conquest Panthera is the horse I am keying in this position. 30% thorograph chance to top his last race effort which alone could win this race.
Yeah I'm positive so far, but not enough so where I'd end the day up if I don't hit anything in the Derby. Let's go Gunnevera.
Gonna do something very similar to this but include Irish War Cry and McCraken .50 TRIFECTA: Key 15 1st/2nd with 2-5-12-17-19 with 1-2-5-6-8-9-10-11-12-14-16-17-19 (1x5x12 = 60 x .50 = $30 x 2 = $60)
I keyed the 10 in all three spots of my tri. Included 2, 5, 8, 15, and 17 on top, and used 1, 12, 14, and 16 underneath. Thought about completely throwing out Classic Empire.
15,17/2,5,10,14,15,17,19/1,2,5,6,8,9,10,11,12,14,15,16,17,19 2,5,10,14,15,17,19/15,17/1,2,5,6,8,9,10,11,12,14,15,16,17,19 $144
Helped to be forwardly placed- not many horses were making up ground. Lookin at Lee did well to get 2nd.
CHURCHILL DOWNS - Race 12 # Win Place Show 5 $11.40 $7.20 $5.80 1 . $26.60 $15.20 11 . . $20.80 Results: 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | ALL Wager Type Winning Numbers Paid $2.00 Exacta 5/1 $336.20 $0.50 Trifecta 5/1/11 $4148.60 $1.00 Superfecta 5/1/11/14 $75974.50 $1.00 Super High Five 5/1/11/14/19 $493348.70 $1.00 Double 2/5 $25.50 $0.50 Pick-3 9/2/5 3 of 3 $207.50 $0.50 Pick-4 6/9/2/5,21,22 4 of 4 $3441.40 $0.50 Pick-5 8/6/9/2/5,21,22 5 of 5 $50063.35 $2.00 Pick-6 2,6/8/6/9/2/5,21,22 6 of 6 $857335.40 $2.00 Pick-6 2,6/8/6/9/2/5,21,22 5 of 6 $1815.80
I know nothing about horse betting. Am I reading it right that if you picked the right horse 1 through 4 you got 76k for each dollar bet?
If you played the Pick 6 - pick the winner in 6 consecutive races - you would have won $857,000 Best game ever
On track vet just said that he was examined, and saw no injuries, so he was able to walk to the barn. Guessing the combination of the crowd and the wet track combined to just freak him out.
After another viewing, I'd revise this to say that being forwardly placed helped (the top 10 horses at the mile call were the same group that finished in the top 10 at the end of the race), but being on the inside was even more important. Lookin at Lee moved up closer earlier than I thought he did and rode the rail throughout- he had an absolutely perfect ride and trip. Just wasn't good enough. Classic Empire had a much worse trip. And naturally, the horse I liked (Gunnevera) ran 5 or 6 wide around the far turn and was fanned out even wider in the stretch.
Classic Empire and lookin at Lee were the only horses making up ground... obviously more impressive coming from Classic Empire. I think Classic Empire is going to be a load to handle come Preakness time.
Early Preakness probables: Always Dreaming (1st Kentucky Derby) Classic Empire (4th Kentucky Derby) Cloud Computing (3rd Wood Memorial) Conquest Mo Money (2nd Arkansas Derby) Gunnevera (7th Kentucky Derby) Hence (11th Kentucky Derby) Lookin at Lee (2nd Kentucky Derby) Multiplier (1st Illinois Derby) Royal Mo (3rd Santa Anita Derby) Senior Investment (1st Lexington Stakes)
Royal Mo suffered a career-ending injury this morning, so he can be taken out of the Preakness probables. Still looking at a field of 10, though, as Term of Art is expected to run. But the way this race is shaping up (especially with Royal Mo now out), it's hard to see a ton of pace. Conquest Mo Money should be on the lead, with Always Dreaming sitting behind him in second. Beyond them, the only horses I wouldn't consider pure closers are Classic Empire and Cloud Computing, and even those two I see more as mid-pack horses.
Preakness field: 1. Multiplier, Rosario (30-1) 2. Cloud Computing, Castellano (12-1) 3. Hence, Geroux (20-1) 4. Always Dreaming, Velasquez (4-5) 5. Classic Empire, Leparoux (3-1) 6. Gunnevera, Smith (15-1) 7. Term of Art, J. Ortiz (30-1) 8. Senior Investment, Hill (30-1) 9. Lookin at Lee, Lanarie (10-1) 10. Conquest Mo Money, Carreno (15-1)