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Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by mtsucalico85, Apr 9, 2015.
This is probably my favorite weird race ever. Didn't a T Swift race at Churchill this week?
Still kicking myself about that one. Liked him all winter, and got cold feet Derby week. My top three horses (and yours, I believe) finished first, third, and fourth.
The $1 tri paid over $3400, and the $1 super paid over $28,000 that year.
I love watching replays of longshots winning. 1993 breeders cup is a classic.
Here's another but I'm not sure how to embed it since its in flash.... http://www.hollywoodpnrc.com/Racing/General Information/Video
Go the race replay from 1/31/13, Race 8.
And here comes a donkey to win this race at 94 to 1.
A couple Tom Durkin calls I've always liked:
Night School tonight at 8:30ET, covering when to bet more and bet less
any of you guys listen to steve byk regularly?
I still remember most of my old main bets ...
1. Dullahan (4)
2. Bodemeister (2)
3. Union Rags (7)
4. Gemologist (16)
1. Normandy Invasion (4)
2. Revolutionary (3)
3. Orb (1)
4. itsmyluckyday (15)
hit the $1 trifecta for $3400 and something because I randomly put Golden Soul in because I figured he could follow Normandy out of the gate, cheaped out on the super by keying Normandy up top because I wanted to add itsmyluckyday who finished in the back 5. Only cost myself $50k to save a couple hundred.
1. California Chrome (1) (I had Shared Belief in everything in the future pool, spent a ton on the early stuff)
2. Saamrat (6)
3. Danza (3)
4. Wicked Strong (4)
2015 - This year was fucked up because I was doing a 7 horse super, but the below bet is what I was mostly doing on my own. I was all on board with Dortmund/Firing Line at 1/2. We got 7 of the top 10 in our big bet, but paid shitty.
1. Dortmund (3)
2. Firing Line (2)
3. Frosted (4)
4. Carpe Diem (10)
So that's not terrible for the last couple of years. Hit random stuff, but those were my main looks going back.
And this will probably bite me in the ass in 5 weeks, but I don't think American Pharoah is all that great historically looking at 3 year olds. That was a slow derby, barely ahead of CC last year who basically walked across the finish, but a touch slower than Orb (after it had basically been monsoon for 36 hours) and over a full second behind I'll Have Another on similar fast tracks (although the I'll Have Another year the track was probably a little faster).
He might win in 12 days, I think the race will probably be similar, but Materiality/Frosted/Keen Ice were making up lengths in the last furlong as the top 3 finishers were all-out. I'm really surprised Dortmund got passed and didn't rally.
Well, if that guy posted here, we'd all have lost everything on Mubtaahij last weekend. He kind of rubs me wrong when he goes out of his way to criticize the american system and bring up foreign breeding with freaking Animal Kingdom as an outlier.
Also, Mub beating AP is not Kentucky losing in the final four. Weird analogy to push that narrative even if the state makes it more relevant.
so apparently the the 3rd quarter of the race was one of the faster splits in recent times, i think jay privman said this on the radio today I was only half listening
I believe these were mine, going back to 2011 (in 2011 and 2012, the top three were my main horses, I don't completely remember who I had 4th those years, but I remember using them in exotics)
1. Animal Kingdom (1)
2. Soldat (11)
3. Nehro (2)
4. Brilliant Speed (7)
1. Creative Cause (5)
2. Bodemeister (2)
3. Alpha (12)
4. El Padrino (13)
1. Normandy Invasion (4)
2. Orb (1)
3. Revolutionary (3)
4. Oxbow (6)
1. California Chrome (1)
2. Wicked Strong (4)
3. Medal Count (8)
4. Candy Boy (14)
2011 was definitely my most successful Derby year, while 2012 was awful.
I can pick the hell out of the horse that finishes 4th. Still salty with Palice Malice for going that hard in 2013. I think I had $500 or more with Normandy up top in everything. 2011 was when I was getting back in, I think I was Mucho Macho Man/Stay Thirsty/Nehro/PantsonFire, but can't recall that one as well. I know it was awful.
As far as the splits go, with the way this year's race set up, you knew Dortmund/Firing Line/AP were finishing 1/2/3 in some order after the first half mile. If that 3rd fraction wasn't blazing, half the field would have caught them.
Two factors helped contribute to this- the pace was not very fast by Derby standards, and I think the track was slowing down throughout the day. Also, while he did have a very good trip, he was running a bit wide throughout the race, just to stay out of trouble. The only horse who covered more ground than him was Frosted (by a whole 7 feet).
Raw times have to be taken with a grain of salt, because the track can play so different from year to year (or even day to day)- even if they are all considered fast tracks. I don't think anyone would consider Monarchos one of the best Derby winners of all time, yet he's the only horse other than Secretariat to run the Derby in under 2 minutes, thanks in part to a souped up track and an insanely fast pace.
I think speed figures are a little bit better for comparisons (although they have their own flaws as well). His Beyer stacks up favorably compared to recent runners- the last Derby winner with a higher Beyer than him was Big Brown in 2008. It is a different story going back to the late 90's and much of the 2000's, but Beyers in general have been trending lighter over the past few years, for various reasons, so he was never going to earn a 116 like Monarchos did or a 114 like War Emblem did, no matter how impressive he was.
116- Monarchos (2001)
115- Silver Charm (1997)
114- War Emblem (2002)
111- Barbaro (2006)
110- Street Sense (2007)
109- Funny Cide (2003), Big Brown (2008)
108- Charasmatic (1999), Fusaichi Pegasus (2000)
107- Real Quiet (1998), Smarty Jones (2004)
105- Mine That Bird (2009), American Pharoah (2015)
104- Super Saver (2010), Orb (2013)
103- Animal Kingdom (2011)
101- I'll Have Another (2012)
100- Giacomo (2005)
97- California Chrome (2014)
I do agree that I'll most likely be looking to beat him at the Belmont, should he make it there. But that will be for other reasons- I think this was a stronger Derby than the past few runnings. Now, if you want to compare him to horses like Silver Charm, Barbaro, and Street Sense, then I'd agree with you- he isn't on their level.
Preakness field is going to be light, Pletcher won't have a runner.
American Pharoah, Firing Line, and Dortmund—as well as Bodhisattva, Danzig Moon, Divining Rod, and Tale of Verve.
Was really hoping Materiality and Carpe Diem would enter. Also, really surprised Competitive Edge is out.
Is that official? Only 7 runners.
Pretty sure. Can't think of anyone else. Belmont should be full.
Any chance the 4 derby horses don't finish in the top 4?
Always a chance, but a pretty disappointing field.
I'll play Firing Line on top in a few different things, but likely wait on the Belmont to bet heavy against AP.
well no point in betting the Preakness...
I get why but I hate that Derby horses who lose skip the Preakness to stay fresh and ruin the triple crown bid.
I wish there was a way to force horses to run the first two races if they want to enter the Belmont
Pick 4 and Pick 5 pools have guaranteed payouts this weekend. Solid bets to be made on the undercard.
Probably key 2 out of the 3 favorites at 1,2 and put the 4 additions in 3rd. Hope someone has an off day.
The only horse that even somewhat intrigues me is Divining Rod- I like him more than I do Danzig Moon. But he would need the top three to regress to get on their level.
But this Preakness is shaping up to be a lot like the I'll Have Another/Bodemeister/Creative Cause edition, where those three just towered over the others.
Late entry is Grand Bili ... just looking over some numbers, never gone over 7f in two lifetime starts both at Gulfstream, but at least we will have 8.
And I agree with mt, unless someone gets pulled up or there is a late scratch, can't see any of this group catching AP/Dortmund/Firing Line.
From a personal standpoint, actually hope AP wins because the Belmont is aiming to be one of the bigger fields in recent memory and would garner a lot of interest (and money) from the general public. If Firing Line or Dortmund wins Saturday, the Belmont becomes a footnote.
Will be at Pimlico on Saturday - thread bookmarked
Crazy draw. Dortmund moved up to 2nd favorite with Firing Line drawing 8.
Mr. Z bought by Calumut and entered at the last minute.
Would post PP but on mobile.
The Preakness field:
1. American Pharoah, 4-5
2. Dortmund, 7-2
3. Mr. Z, 20-1
4. Danzig Moon, 15-1
5. Tale of Verve, 30-1
6. Bodhisattva, 20-1
7. Divining Rod, 12-1
8. Firing Line, 4-1
Dortmund was always going to be the second choice, at least on the morning line.
In general, post positions in an 8 horse race don't matter too much, but if anything, I think Firing Line drew the best. Mr. Z is going to be more forwardly placed, which could put added pressure on the two Baffert horses racing inside of him. And it isn't like Mr. Z is the most predictable horse in the world, either. And between Mr. Z and Firing Line, there isn't a ton of speed, so Gary Stevens will be able to position Firing Line wherever he wants, knowing that horses like Tale of Verve are going to drop back and won't be anywhere near the pace.
Another set of Preakness PP's, these from DRF:
We have to play the hand we are dealt. Hard not to the think the derby winners will repeat.
I wasn't sure about that. Firing Line seems to be getting all the press this week and after putting him away by a length two weeks ago, assumed that Dortmund would slip to 3rd.
Anyhow, I am basically doing the same exacta bets from the Derby, but going to go against Pharoah on my personal stuff as the Firing Line/Dortmund exacta could pay quite a bit if people aren't covering their bets. Unless it's a total slop track, then the only horse I have seen run in that was Pharoah and Mr. Z so would change what I am going to do a little.
This is the bet bigger money to make any money type of race. If you're throwing $1 tri stuff out, better at least take one of the big 3 off the ticket or you're $6 box bet will probably return $15
I'll probably try and slip Divining Rod into an exacta/trifecta with the top three for my bets. But I pretty much agree otherwise. I'll look at the undercard later today/tonight (haven't had a chance to look at those PPs yet), but my Preakness picks will be:
1. Firing Line
3. American Pharoah
4. Divining Rod
American Pharoah is the most likely winner, but I don't think he's a huge standout compared to Firing Line/Dortmund, and those two will be 5 times the price. I won't be using anyone other than Divining Rod in my exotics (exactas/tris)- if Danzig Moon beats me, he beats me. And I can't make a case for any of the other three.
I'm a rookie, what's the best "type" of bet tomorrow
Like a trifecta? Where I pick 1-3 in order?
trifecta is 1-3 in order. trifecta box is 1-3 any order
im a rookie and did 2 boxes and a win for the derby
Just got back from Hoosier Harness, ran 2nd by a nose in an elimination final for $19k. Was race 3 at Hoosier if anyone wants to go check it out, you might be able to see me by the finish line next to the track trying to body English her into the lead.
8 hours in the car for 1:53.3 of fun. Gotta love this business.
My amateur photography skills ...
Lost the race, but ...
Getting a handle on the Hoosier crop of 3 year olds this year. Probably in late June will start doing a few picks a week in here at that track. Seen each good horse about 4-5 times.
Now I am debating doing a $250 super straight tomorrow.
Start small and cash a ticket, take Firing Line/Pharoah/Dortmund and exacta box with 3 horses. Would be a shock if you don't cash that ticket.
So on the way home tonight, driving through Fort Wayne, my GPS on my phone suddenly has me get off a random exit because I have it configured to skip construction, anyhow, takes me way around and dead ends me into this old farm and does the you have arrived at your destination ... then flips off and on and says return to the highway so I am betting the 4 numbers off the barn address my GPS took me to randomly. 2-6-1-7
If you believe in weird shit, go ahead and join me on that one.
Haha what are you betting using the address, I'll do it!
Also, So bet those 3 horses as an exacta box? Or do I need to add a 4th?
Problem with doing box bets with more than 2 horses is a $2 with 2 horses becomes $4. A $2 exacta with 3 horses becomes $12 and with 4 becomes $24.
The problem with this race is there are only 8 runners so if you box half the field and spend $24, if it comes in Pharoah and Firing Line in 1st and 2nd, you just spent $24 to make $10.
This is not the best race to start your wagering career on. I would take $30 and pick either Dortmund/Firing Line/Pharoah and go $20 to win, then pick 2 of those 3 mentioned above and do a $5 exacta box for $10 and then watch this thread for the next 3 weeks and do some exotics (trifectas and supers) on the Belmont in 3 weeks.
For an example, because I feel so strongly about 2 of Pharoah/Firing Line/Dortmund finishing first or second, I am doing a $50 exacta box with those 3 that costs $300 and hoping Pharoah is off the board for the sake of that bet and if not, I lose and the public still shows up for the Belmont.
This is the race to just fuck around and do a $10 super straight. You know who is going to likely be top 3, just need the order and it's a minimal wager.
I'm going with variations of ...
2. Firing Line
3. American PHaroah
4. Divining Rod/Tale of Verve (Dallas fucking Stewart will never beat me again)
Also, my reasoning on Pharoah, he's gotten perfect outside or up front trips in all of his races EXCEPT for his maiden when he got stuck inside and caught up and just gave up in the stretch and finished 5th. Not sure the #1 spot is going to work out for him tomorrow.
So just go up to the window tomorrow and say "I wanna do an exacta box with" and tell them the 2 horses or numbers?
Race first, then bet, then horses by number.
Race 13, $2 exacta box, horses 1 and 2 and 8 and they will say "that will be $12". Also, if you win, tip the person that pays you out.
Kinda feel like I need some results here since we have some people getting into this and I just found that I could pull my online betting records for the past 3 years from xpressbet only. 2012 sucked, but going to post them below anyway.
3 years of gambling
2012 - lost most of this on I'll Have Another ...
2013 - Started to bet on Hoosier this year and thanks to mt, hit on Golden Soul in the derby ...
2014 I started to become serious about handicapping ...
What the above tells you is I love low priced exotics and in 2012, I was trying to just stay above par and it wasn't working for me. You can tell the difference with the amount of bets won/placed and when I figured out doing large show bets on a favorite over and over wasn't going to work. Anyhow, hope that helps. I am up about $15k the past 3 years with twinspires and being at the track.
Haha sorry, so am I betting 2 or 3 horses to do the exacta box, AP and one of the other 2?
Say exactly this below
That is a $12 dollar bet. You are taking three horses to finish 1-2 in any order. You can bet more obviously than $2.
Or you could pick AP and one of the other. A $2 exacta box is $4.
Sounds good, what's it pay do you think then?
I need to learn more about this stuff. Would love to get into it but need to still learn all the ins and outs.
It will pay more if the 2/8 side of the box hits
Yup, if you it comes in Firing Line/Dortmund, I'd guess you would get close to $40 on the $2. Pharoah with either closer to $18-$22.
I'm just going to hammer away with big exacta and trifectas with the 3 favorites. Should be able to at least scratch if Pharoah wins and then we're going to have a lucrative Belmont in 3 weeks so it's a win win all around.