Official Horse Racing Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by mtsucalico85, Apr 9, 2015.

  1. Gallant Knight

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    After the race my trainers wife was like so do you want to buy three pictures (one for me, one for jockey, one for trainer is customary)

    I bought 20 lol
     
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  2. Gallant Knight

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    I like the 5 Uncle Sigh in he 3rs at Belmont tomorrow. I watched the last race of his, a 200k NY bred stakes race, and it was a really good 3rd. I think the horse could've been a lot closer but Ortiz basically went to the back of the pack early to get him off the rail. I think he will like being on the outside here. It's only a 5 horse field and he will probably end up around 3/2 at post time
     
  3. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    That name is a blast from the past. Was high on him during the NY series of Triple Crown preps back in 2014.

    Amazing that he ran in the 2014 Derby, and then didn't race in another stakes race until this year.
     
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  4. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    Just saw he scratched. What happened?
     
  5. Gallant Knight

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    no clue.

    plan is to try to post a couple of winners in this thread every weekend and keep track of how i do on best bets.

    went 2-1 last weekend.

    first horse paid 2.80, second paid 5.60, so not great prices, but a 23% ROI through one week.

    and the only reason i took the horse that paid 2.80 was because i've been following the horse since his first workout and thought he was a total lock. i put $3k on him to win when i was at lone star, and actually emailed the trainer and offered to buy 10% of the horse on monday.
     
    #2055 Gallant Knight, Jun 29, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2018
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  6. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    You should start your W-L figures from the derby. Pretty sure you posted like 6-8 winners in a row. Or maybe I just got lucky and missed the losers. But keep up the great work. I appreciate the insight.
     
  7. Gallant Knight

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    Actually going to include core beliefs from last weekend in the Ohio derby

    The triple crown stuff was a bunch of different bets
     
  8. Gallant Knight

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    If you include Core Beliefs, which I gave out on 6/23, ROI is 50%, or $16 on four $2 win bets.

    Today, since my top pick scratched, lets go with Divine Interventio in the 5th race, a 35,000 N3L. Morning Line 5-2. He's dropping down out of a lot of allowance races. Been in for 50k once this year in an open claiming race, so 35k N3L will be the easiest spot this horse has been in in years. His numbers have been pretty consistent, so he will at least give you an honest race.

    All of these horses are double digit races without 3 wins, and the morning line favorite at 7-5 was just claimed for 14k and jumped up a few levels to this race. Maybe it's 7-5 because it's a first time gelding with Irad, but i don't trust any of that in the form because there is generally no penalty or a few hundred dollar trainer fine for not reporting that.

    These races at Belmont right now are probably coming up pretty soft because owners will want to run at Saratoga in a couple of weeks.


    I have my eye on Silvercents and Oratory Lights at Lone Star this weekend, but I'm not ready to pull the trigger.

    Good luck all.
     
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  9. Gallant Knight

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    Played it as a $250 straight win bet, a $20 exacta with 3 over all and a $10 trifecta with 3 over all over all
     
  10. The Hebrew Husker

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    When do these start?
     
  11. Gallant Knight

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    4:15 central post at Belmont for the 5th race
     
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  12. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    Gallant Knight have any bets this week? I need to place one more to get a sign up bonus on twin spires and if not I’m just gonna be sending out a prayer.
     
  13. Gallant Knight

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    I'm going to take a look either today or tomorrow
     
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  14. Gallant Knight

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    $16 returned on 5 $2 win bets for an ROI of 63%

    Looking at the Belmont card tomorrow:

    I like the 7, Fair Regis, in the 2nd race tomorrow. I’ve always been a pretty big fan of the West coast to east coast angle, and this fully ran a good second in the same starter allowance condition last out. And she gets a rider upgrade from Rosario to Irad. She is 2-1. The 9-5 favorite last ran in Kentucky, and I don’t like the Kentucky (or Florida for that matter) to New York angle. The races are a lot tougher.

    I like the 6, Hangman, quite a lot in the 3rd, a 100k stakes a mile over the turf. I watched both of his races, the first race he ran without blinkers and didn’t want to pass horses. When Franco got him on the outside on the stretch he started passing horses but it was too late. In his next race, with the addition of blinkers, he broke best, sat back and rated, and then won by two lengths under a hand ride the last half furlong. This is a horse who needed blinkers badly, they made the change, and that race was the best last race beyer figure in the field. I don’t think the extra furlong will bother him because the race remains a one turn mile at Belmont.
     
    #2064 Gallant Knight, Jul 3, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2018
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  15. Gallant Knight

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    300 to win on the 7, 10 tri with 7 over all over all, 200 double 7-6
     
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  16. Gallant Knight

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    Only retuned 4.30 but a win is a win
     
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  17. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    I took that horse in the second and going with you on the third as well. Have a pick 3 going too. Let’s go.
     
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  18. Gallant Knight

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    Well shit
     
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  19. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    Fuck that 4 horse. Ruined all my bets on that race.
     
  20. Gallant Knight

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    Set a slot pace for a stake race and then ran away with it. If they’re going to let a horse run a 49 second half mile in a stakes races of course he will run away with it

    Have returned 20.30 on 16 at this point
     
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  21. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Interesting day of racing at Belmont tomorrow. Mendelssohn (6) is running in the Dwyer (Race 6), and it may be a make or break type of race for him in the US. This is a field he should beat (I'm not a big fan of Rugbyman, and beyond him, the only other horse I could see contending would be Noble Indy), so if he runs poorly here, there are big problems.

    In the Belmont Sprint (Race 7), I prefer Limousine Liberal (1) over Whitmore (2), but those are clearly the top two.

    The Belmont Oaks (Race 8) is pretty wide open, and is a race I would spread. The one horse I am completely willing to beat me is the O'Brien horse, Athena. Nothing that I have seen from her really wows me, and she'll take a good amount of money. I tend to like the horses coming out of the Wonder Again the most- I like Significant Form (1) the most, turning the tables on La Signare (7), but will use both of those along with the third place finisher from that race, Mighty Scarlett (10), and, at a price, I like Fatale Bere (9) a little bit as well. In multi-race wagers, I'd use all four of them, and would consider throwing in Capla Temptress (4) and Toinette (5), though most of my play will focus on those first four.

    In the Suburban (Race 9), I'll take a chance with Take Your Guns (7). He ran well in the Brooklyn last time out, when he finished 3rd to Hoppertunity, and I like the cut back to 1 1/4 miles this time out, as I think he tired a bit the final 1/4 mile. I also think he may have a little more room to improve than the rest of the field, who I kind of think are what they are. In multi-race wagers, though, I will also use Hoppertunity (8), who always runs well at Belmont (don't love the pace setup for him, though), and Dr. Dorr (5), who is probably in the best form of any horse right now, and should be forwardly placed, which may be beneficial.

    In the Belmont Derby (Race 10), I'm not a huge fan of most of the American turf horses in this spot, as I question the distance for most of them. The one American horse I am interested in is My Boy Jack (9), who despite his dirt successes this year, I've always preferred on turf. I picked him second, with Hunting Horn (4) my top pick and the other Euro, Kingstar (6), in third. Those would be my three horses to use in multi-race wages. The trio of Analyze It, Catholic Boy, and Hawkish all have bright futures, but I prefer all of them at 1 1/8 miles or shorter.
     
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  22. Gallant Knight

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    Doping this card right now. I’m probably going with Noble Indy in the Dwyer. I don’t see much difference between Limosene Liberal and Whitmore. Will probably exacta box them
     
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  23. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Yeah if Mendelssohn faltered, I would prefer Noble Indy to Rugbyman. And I agree that I would be more likely to go with an exacta box in the Sprint than a straight win bet.
     
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  24. Gallant Knight

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    On Dr Door big here
     
  25. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    When the stakes sequence started off with Firenze Fire being bet down to 5/2 in the Dwyer (which seemed ridiculous to me), and then he ran off to win by 9, I knew it wasn't going to be my day.

    All I got from the day was a win in the 5th race with Exulting and that exacta in the Belmont Sprint, and Whitmore could have been very easily DQ'd from 2nd in that race. I do think leaving him up was the right call, though.
     
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  26. Gallant Knight

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    Lost money on that Belmont card as well. I had a good amount on limousine liberal in the sprint, but gave it all back
     
  27. Gallant Knight

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    But I will say that card was good in an education for the rest of the year

    Firenze fire is a one turn miler. Analyze it will add blinkers next our and probably bear catholic boy if there is a rematch. My boy jack isn’t going to be a grade 1 or 2 horse going forward. Noble Indy is 100% cooked and Mendelssohn probably is too. And other stuff I can’t think of
     
  28. Gallant Knight

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    I like the 6 in the next race at Belmont (3rd). Lots of speed for him to close into
     
  29. Gallant Knight

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    Might buy a yearling tomorrow at Fasig Tipton
     
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  30. Gallant Knight

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    Filly didn’t pass our vet exam :(
     
  31. matadorjim

    matadorjim Well-Known Member
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    This is interesting to watch the live auction. Are the two American Pharoh fillies going to be the most expensive? His stud fee was $200k from what I read?
     
  32. Gallant Knight

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    I’m not sure. That is (obviously) significantly out of my price range. I liked hip38 that went for 150k. I was looking more in the 20-30 range

    Yesterday there was a horses of racing age sale and people were paying like 75k for horses than ran in 25k claiming races in may. Made zero sense
     
  33. Gallant Knight

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    Also, tapit is the most expensive American sire. Advertised fee is 300k for live foal. Not sure how many people pay full freight on that though
     
  34. matadorjim

    matadorjim Well-Known Member
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    It's definitely tricky to wrap your head around. Fascinating though.
     
  35. Gallant Knight

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    Just let me know when y’all are ready to start tmb racing club
     
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  36. b7

    b7 Well-Known Member
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    My best friend want to go in half on a horse with me. I can't pull the trigger yet.
     
  37. Gallant Knight

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    My training bill for two horses this month was like 4400 + a 500 vet bill + 10% of my winnings
     
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  38. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    I’m ready but also cannot afford those bills lol
     
  39. Gallant Knight

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    would just be aportion of them.
     
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  40. Gallant Knight

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    Look at bazooka in the 3rd at lone star on Sunday

    12.5k with a good shot to take a step forward second time dirt second time blinkers

    I want
     
  41. Gallant Knight

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    probably flying up to lone star for the handicapping contest on sunday. doing some video review

    Race 1 – Maiden Special Weight 1 Mile 3+

    1. How Creative – broke well but shied a little between horses. Addition of blinkers should help. Lost to even money favorite but was 4 clear of the rest of the pack. Geared down the last 200 yards when wasn’t winning and secured second easily. Horse he lost to has never missed the board

    2. Risquey Bidness – easily got the lead. If can get him to settle down down the backstretch he could be a player.

    3. Flat Out Sassy – squeezed at the rail behind the pack and couldn’t respond. Don’t love this one, but has diego?

    4. Paddy O – completely missed the break and rallied from wayyy off the pack to get a very good 4th. This one is dangerous.

    5. Bitty Brit – got the lead at first asking at 7F in Maiden 7500 and got beat rather easily. Don’t think this one wants any part of a two turn mile.

    6. Gymnastic – totally missed start, rushed up and faded. If she does it again at a mile she will be toast.

    Thinking about either boxing the 1 and 4 or playing a 1-4-all trifecta.
     
  42. Gallant Knight

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    Race 2 – 12,500N2L 3+

    1. Superstyle – pretty unremarkable in allowance race. Had a perfect trip sitting a length off the lead after a 50 second half mile and when asked he didn’t do anything.

    2. More Than Money – easy lead after a 25/50 qtr/half and couldn’t keep lead. Held second. Horse that beat him came back to finish 6th and 8th in 5k claiming races.

    3. Okavango Alfa – Pretty nice rail trip to come up with a game third by a head. The horse that won was much the best, but it was dead even between him and the second place finisher. Might appreciate getting off the rail? Could also appreciate slower pace than 23-46.3

    4. Spring for Gold – sat an absolutely PERFECT trip third behind two huge longshots in a 7500N2L race, go the lead easily, but was run down and beaten by a length and a half. If he couldn’t close the deal in that race, I’m not sure how he can here in a step up in class.

    5. Bazooka – have watched this race a bunch of times. Comes between two horses to edge away and win in first start on dirt. If he takes any sort of step forward at all, he is much the best here. Hopefully he likes two turns.

    6. Get the Bling – sat the rail the entire trip against a state bred maiden special weight field. Finished a full second slower than bazooka at the 7F trip. Could see him getting a piece.

    7. Zilker – came from last to almost win—lost by a head in a 7500 N2L. I have no idea why this horse is 20-1. He obviously wants some speed to close into but might not get it in this race.

    i like bazooka here. if he improves at all he is an allowance horse. i have no idea why zilker is 20-1. i dont see bazooka or get the bling running a 46 second half mile, so he might be up against it.

    i dont like spring for gold at all, and the more than money 2nd in the allowance at will rogers is deceptively not great.

    probably looking at a 1 with 3,7 exacta here.
     
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  43. Gallant Knight

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    7500 Claiming 1MI

    2. South Texas Drawl – watched last two turn race, got easy lead at 25.4 and 49.4 and was ran down pretty easily. Seems like a decent bet to hit the board but not sure if I can make a win bet on him after watching that performance. However it was an allowance race and now he’s in for 7500.

    1. Yeowzer – won money on him at 3-1 2 weeks ago. Not sure he wants any part of a two turn dirt mile. Easy to lay off here at 2-1.

    3. D’urban Park – also not sure this horse wants two turns. Sat mid pack and had every opportunity to make a move and just flattened out.

    4. Shaded – Have watched this horse and cant bet him to hit the board.

    5. Captain Payback – looking to go from last to first. Last two races have been two turn miles and he was able to do it against 5000 claimers but in the allowance race before that he wasn’t. if yeowzer and d’urban park get into a speed duel, I like this one a lot at 10-1. He is a must include in horizontal wagers.

    6. Stealcase – pretty ordinary last race at a mile. Was against better, but didn’t show anything at all. Sat 6tth the entire way by 4-6 lengths and never improved. At 9 he may just not want to race anymore. Leaving off all ticket.s

    1A. Oh Newman – another one who probably wants shorter. Sat right off a 19-1 shot and couldn’t overtake him and finished out of the money.

    7. Cuco Trejo – trailed the whole way and passed tired horses.

    probably going to do a small exacta with 5 over 1,2,3. if it hits it will pay big. if not i will lose $15 or 30
     
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  44. Gallant Knight

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    Race 4 allowance N2X

    C27D3707-9059-4B2D-B212-65362CB14DFE.png 365C2789-B1A0-4D18-968C-53414D2FEFF9.png
     
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  45. Gallant Knight

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    Lone star tomorrow. I may be flying up there for a contest tomorrow
     
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  46. Kinghorn817

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    I think I'm going to head to prairie meadows in a bit
     
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  47. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    We have any good races to bet on coming up? Need something fun to gamble on for the next month or two until football is back
     
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  48. Thoros of Beer

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    The Saratoga meet just started
     
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  49. R2-D2Big

    R2-D2Big Capitalism > Socialism
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    Where do you bet your football? Is it legal in your state now or you have an offshore website you use ?