Official Horse Racing Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by mtsucalico85, Apr 9, 2015.

  1. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    I’m in a couple pick ems and I use Bovada. Wish it was legal. Would be more convenient
     
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  2. R2-D2Big

    R2-D2Big Capitalism > Socialism
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    How does Bovada payout to US citizens? When I used them the only way was to wait for a check for 2-3 weeks or goto a western union. Hopefully it’s improved now
     
  3. Gallant Knight

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    Someone talk me out of putting 10,000 on Monomy Girl today at 3/5
     
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  4. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    Check and bitcoin so still not super convenient.
     
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  5. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    You feeling that confident?
     
  6. Gallant Knight

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    Yeah. But I don't really want to bet if and then get 1-5
     
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  7. Gallant Knight

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    Give Stealth a look in the 5th at Saratoga. Blew the break in his debut at Churchill and was 20 lengths back. Ended up closing to loss by 7 lengths in a 6 furlong race and was passing horses in the gallop out.
     
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  8. Thoros of Beer

    Thoros of Beer Academy Award-Winning Actor, Tim Allen
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    You should do it
     
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  9. Gallant Knight

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    Pretty easy there
     
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  10. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    You do it? I fell asleep and missed the race.
     
  11. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Justify has officially been retired.
     
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  12. Gallant Knight

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    i wonder what the partnership agreement looked like for the people who bought racing interests in him--like sol kumin bought racing interests in both justify and audible but didnt have any breeding rights.
     
  13. The Hebrew Husker

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    Anyone rolling anything today?
     
  14. colonelrascals

    colonelrascals Mayonnaise-colored Benz, I push miracle whips
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  15. Gallant Knight

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    My horse won again last night at Retama Park in San Antonio. 2 for 2 this year
     
  16. Gallant Knight

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    love that this it the first thing posted in this thread.
     
  17. Gallant Knight

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    went to galveston over the weekend. made girlfriend drive 70ish minutes out of the way so i could go to SHRP to box Diversify and Mind your Biscuits. They have to hate me at SHRP.

    IMG_4661.jpg
     
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  18. Kinghorn817

    Kinghorn817 Well-Known Member
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    Goodness
     
  19. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    That's pretty tame compared to this gem of mine just a couple posts later:
    I definitely underrated his ability to get the distance.
     
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  20. Gallant Knight

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    everyone is wrong more than they are right in this game. but when you're right, you have to make it count.
     
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  21. Gallant Knight

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    Got a random check from Texas Thoroughbred Assocstion today for $2,330. I guess for my horse winning st lone star in June. On top of the purse I got in June

    Now only -$21,000 in horse ownership
     
  22. Kinghorn817

    Kinghorn817 Well-Known Member
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    Gallant, you like anything in Saratoga this weekend?
     
  23. Gallant Knight

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    In Vegas so I’ll be doping the card

    Look at la fuerza
     
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  24. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    My Travers Day Stakes thoughts, plus one bonus race. Spoilered for length.

    Saratoga Race 1: Will touch on the annual Travers Day 2YO maiden race, as it has a very good history at producing quality horses- last year, Good Magic debuted in this race. I think there are some interesting horses, but none jump out at me the way Good Magic did last year. I do like the future of the 1 horse, Greyes Creek, and the 2 horse, Mischievous Bird, but I don’t necessarily see either of them as relishing the classic distance. I’ll go with Mischievous Bird narrowly over Greyes Creek, as the value should be better, but those are the two for me. But I doubt this race will be as productive as last year's was when it comes to the Triple Crown Trail.

    Race 1 selections:
    1. Mischievous Bird (2) 9-2
    2. Greyes Creek (1) 8-5
    3. Puttheglassdown (5) 2-1

    Race 6: Allen Jerkens

    I don’t see a whole lot of pace, so this should be a good set up for Promises Fulfilled (1). The only other front running type horses are Gidu (6), who has turf speed, and Telekinesis (2), who has two-turn dirt speed. I don’t think either will pressure him too much. Given the setup, I would be a little interested in using both of those horses, at least in exotics. I prefer Telekinesis of the two, as Gidu is likely more of a turf horse. Firenze Fire (8) is the other big horse in the field, and if he runs the same race he did in the Dwyer, he probably wins, but I think he’d prefer more pace than he will get, and his Dwyer was such an outlier, I want him to prove it again. I'm likely to single Promises Fulfilled in this spot. But follow the tote board with Firenze Fire- if he takes a ton of money like he did in the Dwyer, it’s probably a sign he is going to fire.

    Allen Jerkens selections:
    1. Promises Fulfilled (1) 8-5
    2. Telekinesis (2) 20-1
    3. Firenze Fire (8) 5-2

    Race 7: Personal Ensign

    Pretty clear top two with Abel Tasman (1) and Elate (6), and of the two, I prefer Elate. She was using the Delaware Handicap as a prep, but still looked really good in doing so (even against a mediocre field). I’ve never been the biggest Abel Tasman fan- she wins whenever I pick against her, and she disappoints when I do. So this solidifies that she will win this race.

    Personal Ensign selections:
    1. Elate (6) 7-5
    2. Abel Tasman (1) 6-5
    3. Wow Cat (4) 4-1

    Race 8: Ballerina

    I like a little bit of a price here in Still There (3). Part of it is me being underwhelmed with the four horses that will be favored to various degrees, but also I think Still There has looked strong in all three of her dirt efforts, and I expect her to be forwardly placed enough to sit a good trip. Of the four favorites, I’m way against Lewis Bay (6), and will try to beat her entirely, but will mix in Marley’s Freedom (7), Finley’sluckycharm (5), and Ivy Bell (2). I prefer them in that order.

    Ballerina selections:
    1. Still There (3) 12-1
    2. Marley’s Freedom (7) 5-2
    3. Finley’sluckycharm (5) 3-1

    Race 9: Forego

    I spent all year last year waiting on that breakthrough performance from No Dozing (5), and it just never came. He went on a layoff at the end of last year, and was gelded during that time. He came back in an optional claiming race in July, and ran the best race of his career. I also liked that he showed more early speed last time, which I think is needed in this spot. Being gelded might have been what he needed to unlock his potential. I’ll mix him in with City of Light (8), who is clearly the horse to beat, and also a little bit of CZ Rocket (6).

    Forego selections:
    1. No Dozing (5) 12-1
    2. City of Light (8) 9-5
    3. CZ Rocket (6) 9-2

    Race 10: Sword Dancer

    This is easily the most wide open race of the day- of the 10 horses, I could make a case for at least 7 horses to win this race (and that doesn’t include horses like Glorious Empire (1), who won the local prep). I landed on Spring Quality (2), who I think is in the best form at the moment, and is versatile enough to be in a good position no matter the pace situation. Sadler’s Joy is probably the other horse I may give a slight preference to over others in the race. But this is a race where I will spread heavily in multi race wagers, using Spring Quality, Hi Happy (4), Highland Sky (5), and Sadler’s Joy at the very least, and may throw in Funtastic (3) and Seahenge (8) as well.

    Sword Dancer selections:
    1. Spring Quality (2) 4-1
    2. Sadler’s Joy (10) 7-2
    3. Highland Sky (5) 12-1

    Race 11: Travers

    Not the strongest edition of the Travers, but still an interesting one. Good Magic (9) is clearly the horse to beat. While he has run fine at a mile and a quarter, I don’t think it is his best distance. Given the price he’ll go off at, I’m not excited to bet him to win. The problem is finding someone to beat him with. I’m way against Wonder Gadot (3) in this spot. I think this is a pretty large step up in class for her, and as visually impressive as her two wins in Canada were, I’m not sure what she was beating. The second in the Oaks is her best race to me, and I don’t think that’s enough to win this race. I’ll be against Gronkowski as well, though I like him more than Wonder Gadot. I just want him to prove that his Belmont wasn’t a fluke. He’s interesting at 10-1, but at second choice, I’ll let him beat me.

    I still think he has a bright future, but I have a hard time trusting Tenfold (10) given the way he was weaving down the stretch of the Jim Dandy. I can use him in exotics, but nothing more. We know what Bravazo (4) is- capable of hitting the board, but he’s going to find at least one better, if not more. I don’t hold the Derby against Mendelssohn (8), and I don’t even hold it against him losing to Firenze Fire in the Dwyer (as that horse freaked), but it’s a major red flag that he couldn’t beat out Seven Trumpets for second.

    The two horses I would look at as potential upsetters would be Vino Rosso (5) and Catholic Boy (11). I can’t in good conscience put Vino Rosso on top- you know my history with him- but I still maintain that if he can put it together, he’s the most talented 10 furlong horse in this race. And you may get double digit odds on him. I have to use him in multis. As for Catholic Boy, it is possible (if not probable) that he is a superior turf horse than on dirt. But with his two poor dirt starts this year, there are excuses for both of them. In the Sam Davis, he was coming in off of a layoff, and he may have needed a race. With the Florida Derby, he bled during the race. His form improved last year when he shifted from turf to dirt. This year, even if he maintains his form with the transition from turf to dirt, he’s right in the mix. Those will be my main three. If I had to throw in a fourth, it would be Gronkowski.

    Travers selections:
    1. Catholic Boy (11) 8-1
    2. Good Magic (9) 2-1
    3. Vino Rosso (5) 10-1

    Race 12: Ballston Spa

    I not going to try beat A Raving Beauty (1)- she may have been best last time out in the Diana when having a tough trip in losing to Sistercharlie, and that horse may be the top turf filly at these middle distances in the country. The other two Chad Brown horses (Quidera (5) and Off Limits (6)) and Proctor’s Ledge (3) are nice horses, but I don’t think Quidera or Proctor’s Ledge are quite as good, and Off Limits has not run to the level she was at in 2017.

    Ballston Spa selections:
    1. A Raving Beauty (1) 7-5
    2. Quidera (5) 4-1
    3. Off Limits (6) 3-1
     
  25. Sammy Meatballs

    Sammy Meatballs Well-Known Member
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    what a wonderful day of racing

    happy travers day everyone
     
  26. Gallant Knight

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    I don’t think I’m going to try to beat good magic

    I like elate over Abel Tasman

    But I also loved la fuerza yesterday and he got dfl, so who knows
     
  27. Sammy Meatballs

    Sammy Meatballs Well-Known Member
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    Nobody is closing on the dirt so far.
     
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  28. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Still in on Still There this race, will gladly take 9-1 on her.

    But the way the track is playing, Finley'sluckycharm is certainly dangerous. Will do a small exacta saver with her on top of Still There as well.
     
  29. Gallant Knight

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    Got on a hot roll and haven’t bet a single race today. +14.9k at cosmo
     
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  30. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    The only good value I see in this race from a win standpoint is Tenfold. He shouldn't be 16-1. I just wish I could trust him more.

    Catholic Boy at 6-1 isn't terrible, but was hoping for his 8-1 morning line.
     
  31. Gallant Knight

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    Good magic for fucked out of the gate
     
  32. LSUTigers1986

    LSUTigers1986 Well-Known Member
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    My friend hit the pick 4 with catholic boy. We’re at the Westgate and I went to piss walking in and said bet whatever you do. He forgot and I’m not too happy.
     
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  33. Gallant Knight

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    bidding on a yearling at the TTA sale this afternoon. Will also likely buy a yearling at keeneland.
     
  34. Gallant Knight

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    bought her.
     
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  35. Gallant Knight

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    Roadster 6/5 morning line in the Del Mae futurity this afternoon. If I can get anywhere near even money I'll be hammering him

    Sucks instgrand decided not to run
     
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  36. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    1/9 jeez

    Edit: guess I’m seeing 1/5 now
     
  37. Gallant Knight

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    Yeah had a feeling this would be the case
     
  38. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    Finished 3rd too
     
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  39. Gallant Knight

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    Good thing he was such a short price it saved me a lot of $
     
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  40. Gallant Knight

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    justify half sibling had a high bid of $1.75 million at Keeneland yearling sale that didn't meet the reserve. Could probably buy 10% for $250,000.00. Who wants to form an LLC and do it?
     
  41. Thoros of Beer

    Thoros of Beer Academy Award-Winning Actor, Tim Allen
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    That's an awful lot of money to spend on an unproven sire.

    The vets must have hated that colt out of Leslie's Lady for it to only bring 60k. I thought he looked really immature, but there has to be something more
     
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  42. Gallant Knight

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    yeah i mean that was a potential sale topper based on the catalog page.
     
  43. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    We're about a month away from the Breeders Cup. They are offering futures this weekend on the Classic and the Turf.

    As far as the Classic goes, it lacks the star power of the past few years, and frankly, this is a below average group altogether. But it could set up to be a really interesting betting race, depending on how you feel about Accelerate, and as of now, I think there is enough to question with him for me to not want to take too short of a price on him.

    The morning line odds for the Classic future pool, in terms of the top choices:

    5-2: Accelerate
    8-1: West Coast
    10-1: Catholic Boy, McKinzie, Thunder Snow
    12-1: Mendelssohn
    15-1: Diversify, Mind Your Biscuits, Seeking the Soul, Yoshida
     
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  44. Gallant Knight

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    8-1 on west coach looks nice
     
  45. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Don't see any way that he goes off at that big of a price by the end of the betting. I'd expect him to get bet down.

    As of now, I prefer West Coast to Accelerate, but I wasn't exactly thrilled with his race in the Awesome Again either. I know he was coming off of a lengthy layoff, but Baffert usually has them firing first time out off of those type of layoffs. That Isotherm - who is essentially a Grade 3 turf horse - finished that close to him bothers me a bit.

    That said, Discreet Lover won the Jockey Club, so who knows what you are getting out of the New York horses. But with the pace in that spot, you can make excuses for a couple horses coming out of that race.
     
  46. El_Pato

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  47. Thoros of Beer

    Thoros of Beer Academy Award-Winning Actor, Tim Allen
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    was only gonna go saturday for breeders cup, but now going friday too. headed to lexington after the races, getting a tour on sunday morning and then probably going to the Fasig Tipton sale sunday afternoon.
     
  48. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Breeders Cup Classic post positions:

    1. Thunder Snow (12-1), Soumillon
    2. Roaring Lion (20-1), Murphy
    3. Catholic Boy (8-1), Castellano
    4. Gunnevera (20-1), I. Ortiz
    5. Lone Sailor (30-1), Graham
    6. McKinzie (6-1), Smith
    7. West Coast (5-1), Velazquez
    8. Pavel (20-1), Gutierrez
    9. Mendelssohn (12-1), Moore
    10. Yoshida (10-1), J. Ortiz
    11. Mind Your Biscuits (6-1), Gaffalione
    12. Axelrod (30-1), Bravo
    13. Discreet Lover (20-1), Franco
    14. Accelerate (5-2), Rosario
     
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  49. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Breeders Cup Friday thoughts:

    Race 5: Juvenile Turf Sprint: Leaning heavily on the Euros here, as the American based horses just don't inspire me. Sergei Prokofiev (6) and Soldier's Call (2) are the two most logical horses to me, but if you are interested in a price horse, I wouldn't ignore Pocket Dynamo (12)- he and Sergei Prokofiev came out of the same race, and he had a lot of trouble in finishing fifth (Sergei Prokofiev also had some trouble, but overcame it to win).

    Juvenile Turf Sprint selections:
    1. Sergei Prokofiev (6) 6-1
    2. Soldier's Call (2) 7-2
    3. Pocket Dynamo (12) 20-1

    Race 6: Juvenile Fillies Turf: Newspaperofrecord (6) is the most likely winner of any Breeders Cup race to me. She just has the look of Chad Brown's latest turf filly that is just a monster, ala Lady Eli. I plan on singling her in multi race wagers. One horse I do think is interesting underneath is East (14)- she's a Group 3 winner in France and has run well on a wet turf course. If you were to add a second horse from this race into the Pick 4 or 5, she'd be the one I use, but I'm just going to roll with Newspaperofrecord. Just Wonderful (4) is a horse I like, but it sounds like she's a filly that would prefer a firmer turf course than she will get.

    Juvenile Fillies Turf selections:
    1. Newspaperofrecord (6) 2-1
    2. East (14) 20-1
    3. Just Wonderful (4) 6-1

    Race 7: Juvenile Fillies: This looks like a two horse race to me between Bellafina (10) and Restless Rider (4), and my multi race wagers will focus on those two. I'll give Bellafina a slight edge, as her best just seems a touch better than Restless Rider's best at this point. I don't see her as a win threat, but a horse I'm interested in underneath is Sippican Harbor (8). May try to key her underneath with the top two, and also mixing in Vibrance (3) and Jaywalk (7). I am way against Serengeti Empress (2)- this is a major jump up in class for her, and I think she'll be way overbet off of her last race where she demolished an overmatched field.

    Juvenile Fillies selections:
    1. Bellafina (10) 2-1
    2. Restless Rider (4) 9-2
    3. Sippican Harbor (8) 12-1

    Race 8: Juvenile Turf: This seems like a fairly evenly matched race. Anthony Van Dyck (14), from a talent and class perspective, is likely the best horse in the field, and is certainly logical. He didn't draw well, though, drawing the outside post. I didn't love his last race, either. I picked him third, and will be using him in multi race wagers, but he's also a favorite I'm not afraid of taking a shot against with. I landed on Line of Duty (5), the Group 3 winner out of France. The third place horse he beat in that Group 3 came back to win a Group 1 race overseas next time out. He showed a nice turn of foot in that spot, as well. A wet turf course shouldn't impact him negatively, as he won that group 3 on a soft turf course. I wouldn't completely dismiss the American horses, though. I do like Forty Under (4) a fair amount- he finished with a good kick in the Pilgrim last time out, and that was on a yielding turf course. Those will be my main three horses. I could conceivably talk myself into using the three Bourbon horses (Henley's Joy (6), War of Will (10), and Current (12)) if I wanted to go deep, especially since I am going to single a horse in Race 6 and only going with 2 horses in Race 7, but they seem like more underneath horses to me.

    Juvenile Turf selections:
    1. Line of Duty (5) 10-1
    2. Forty Under (4) 5-1
    3. Anthony Van Dyck (14) 4-1

    Race 9: Juvenile: There are two horses that should take the bulk of the money - Game Winner (9) and Complexity (6) - and of the two, I prefer Game Winner. I'm not sold on Complexity improving with the increase in distance. I'm going to try and beat him completely. Game Winner will be one of my main two horses, and is the most likely winner. But I'm going to take a shot with Standard Deviation (8). He drew poorly in the Breeders Futurity, and then didn't have much pace to run into. He should sit a much better trip this time out. He definitely needs to take a jump in his speed figures, as he is well behind Game Winner on that front, but I think he is primed for a nice jump forward, very much like Good Magic last year. While those will be my two main horses, two other horses I will be mixing in is Code of Honor (11) (though I do think he will be a bit overbet) and, at a large price, Topper T (13). Topper T, on form, doesn't seem to fit- he's coming off of a 2nd place finish in a listed stake at Canterbury, but he has switched over to the Bill Mott barn, and has apparently been drawing rave reviews ever since arriving to Churchill. I'm at least mildly intrigued by him, even if he isn't a likely winner.

    Juvenile selections:
    1. Standard Deviation (8) 12-1
    2. Game Winner (9) 8-5
    3. Code of Honor (11) 5-1

    Still haven't completely planned my betting, but a potential pick 4 could look something like below. The numbers in black represent my main horses, and the red numbers are my fringe horses. If you wanted to play the pick 5, I would use the 2, 6, and 12 in Race 5, and potentially fade the horses in red (especially the ones in Race 8, I might still play the Race 9 red horses in that case).

    Race 6: 6
    Race 7: 4, 10
    Race 8: 4, 5, 14, 6, 10, 12
    Race 9: 8, 9, 11, 13