Official Horse Racing Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by mtsucalico85, Apr 9, 2015.

  1. Thoros of Beer

    Thoros of Beer Academy Award-Winning Actor, Tim Allen
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    One note on Topper T. The owners paid the pricey supplement to get him entered. You don't do that without confidence from your trainer and Mott is one of the best.
     
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  2. wolfpck

    wolfpck haters gonna hate
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    North Carolina State Wolfpack

    Someone tell me who to bet on.
     
  3. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I like Abel Tasman (2) in the Distaff. Fair warning, though, she is one of those horses for me that I always seem to be against, and she makes me pay. Then I actually pick her, and she doesn't show up.

    For the Turf, Enable (2) is the horse to beat, but she'll be less than even money, and I don't think she's that much of a lock where I would take that price. That said, don't want to bet against her either. I'll do some tris, using Enable, Waldgeist (12), and Magical (5) in all three spots, and mixing in Channel Maker (3) and Sadler's Joy (11) underneath.

    The Classic is pretty wide open. My big opinion is to beat the horses coming out of the Awesome Again- West Coast (7) and Accelerate (14). Just didn't like that race. Also will try to beat Mind Your Biscuits (11), as I am skeptical of him at a mile and a quarter. McKinzie (6) is the most likely winner, but I also don't love him at this distance. I'll take a shot with Thunder Snow (1), but Catholic Boy (3) interests me as well. Those are my main two, but will also mix in McKinzie, Mendelssohn (9), and Gunnevera (4).
     
  4. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I like the horse, but Catholic Boy is being way overbet at 7-2. Thought he would be close to his morning line of 8-1, and that is what he should be at. Don't think McKinzie at 7-2 is great value, either.

    Thunder Snow at around 13-1 is fair to me.
     
  5. R2-D2Big

    R2-D2Big Capitalism > Socialism
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    Ok so now that dog racing is on its way out in Fla. I need to learn how to handicap the ponies. I had a winning formula in dog racing where I could bet certain class races, quinella wheels and position to make some decent bank and it was a good hobby.

    Any place where I could get some good info?

    FWIW, I won the Preakness, Derby and the Belmont this year. Win bets, Exacta and tri combos. I know the strategy’s but not exactly how to read the sheet.

    Any help appreciated

    Gallant Knight
     
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  6. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    I’m so mad that the dog racing amendment passed
     
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  7. Sammy Meatballs

    Sammy Meatballs Well-Known Member
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    Alabama Crimson TideArsenal

    there's a lot of information out there and a lot of it is bad.

    I'd suggest a couple books.

    Betting Thoroughbreds for the 21st Century is a recently updated book that's pretty good

    Betting with an Edge by Mike Maloney is very good.

    Exotic Betting by Steve Crist when you delve more into multirace wagers

    and the horseracing reddit has a discord channel that there's a couple of us from here active in that has good discussion, particularly on big weekends and during certain meets like del mar and saratoga.
     
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  8. R2-D2Big

    R2-D2Big Capitalism > Socialism
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    Yeah, but I gotta say it was a dying sport. I was always one of the youngest people in there and I’m almost 40.

    I’ve been a regular at my track for the last 7 years and it less and less people every year. The old people are dying and the young kids aren’t into it.

    You can almost only play the weekends because there’s never any dead money Mon-Thursday. All sharps, like myself and the payouts have obviously gone way down.

    I’ve had luck with the ponies before and I’m a good bankroll manger. Hopefully with some help from the sharps ITT I can find a new profitable hobby
     
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  9. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    Oh it was definitely a dying sport but we should have just let it die out naturally instead of cutting it off by 2020. The Florida amendments were a joke. Can’t believe all but one or two passed.

    I’m by no means a regular. Probably only go a handful of times a year so it’s not a big loss but I always enjoy it when I go. It’s something fun and different to do that will no longer be an option. So selfishly I’m mad about it.
     
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  10. Gallant Knight

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    Arkansas Razorbacks

    One of my horses is running at delta tonight. Valentine Street in race 2

    I think he will get top 3 at 6-1 morning line
     
  11. PCH

    PCH 2017 & 2019 National Champions - Clemson Tigers
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    Clemson TigersAtlanta BravesTiger Woods

    You're an investor of the horse?
     
  12. Gallant Knight

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    Arkansas Razorbacks

    I own him
     
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  13. Rasheed Wallace

    Rasheed Wallace Ball Don't Lie
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    On it
     
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  14. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    Ill put 100 across the board on him
     
  15. Rasheed Wallace

    Rasheed Wallace Ball Don't Lie
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  16. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    Leggo
     
  17. Gallant Knight

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    Arkansas Razorbacks

    Yes sir-eastern

    5:52 central
     
  18. PCH

    PCH 2017 & 2019 National Champions - Clemson Tigers
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    Clemson TigersAtlanta BravesTiger Woods

    Let's go! I'm on him!
     
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  19. wes tegg

    wes tegg I'm a Guy's guy, guys.
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    I went $75.
     
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  20. wes tegg

    wes tegg I'm a Guy's guy, guys.
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    Shit like this is why this place is so cool.
     
  21. Gallant Knight

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    Arkansas Razorbacks

    That jockey can kiss my ass. 7 wide in the first turn
     
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  22. R2-D2Big

    R2-D2Big Capitalism > Socialism
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    What site do you guys use to wager? TVG, Betfair, Twin Spires??
     
  23. Gallant Knight

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    Arkansas Razorbacks

    Would use tvg if Texas allowed it
     
  24. R2-D2Big

    R2-D2Big Capitalism > Socialism
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    That’s what I’m looking at in Florida
     
  25. Gallant Knight

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    Arkansas Razorbacks

    Would give them my business as a thank you for televising all the races
     
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  26. R2-D2Big

    R2-D2Big Capitalism > Socialism
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    Curious as to what % they take on each wager if U know
     
  27. Gallant Knight

    Donor
    Arkansas Razorbacks

    It’s the same as parimutuel everywhere
     
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  28. R2-D2Big

    R2-D2Big Capitalism > Socialism
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    Ok cool, my local dog track charges 3% to bet ponies. TVG should be much easier all around

    Thanks
     
  29. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    I was actually wondering earlier how you pick a jockey. Do you leave it up to the trainer?
     
  30. Gallant Knight

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    Arkansas Razorbacks

    Yep

    But that guy will never be on another one of my horses
     
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  31. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    I just use my sportsbook. Dont get the best odds compared to horse racing places but its just convenient and easy
     
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  32. Thoros of Beer

    Thoros of Beer Academy Award-Winning Actor, Tim Allen
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  33. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    I use TwinSpires bc it’s the first one I found, allows PayPal to be used and you can watch all the races.
     
  34. Gallant Knight

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    Arkansas Razorbacks

    up to 6 horses and might be privately buying another this week.

    valentine street is running wednesday at delta. think the plan is to move him to houston after that race to take advantage of the texas bred races. if he wins wednesday we might run him in the $50k texas bred stakes race at sam houston on 1.27
     
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  35. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    How we feeling about him winning Wednesday?
     
  36. Gallant Knight

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    Arkansas Razorbacks

    Easier group than last time and gets an extra 110 yards

    I think the oval at delta is tough. I’m looking forward to him coming back to Texas
     
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  37. Gallant Knight

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    Arkansas Razorbacks

    Got third. Won like 2500

    There’s a race mid February in Houston for Texas bred who haven’t won’t other than maiden claiming or starter that he will probably be favored in
     
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  38. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    Damnit. Forgot about the race today. Nice finish tho. Congrats
     
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  39. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    My initial top 20 prospects for the 2019 Kentucky Derby, along with their initial odds by Johnny Avello (former Wynn oddsmaker, now with Draft Kings):

    1. Game Winner (Bob Baffert) (10)
    2. Improbable (Bob Baffert) (16)
    3. So Alive (Todd Pletcher) (150)
    4. Gun It (Steve Asmussen) (150)
    5. Maximus Mischief (Butch Reid) (45)
    6. Global Campaign (Stan Hough) (100)
    7. Mucho Gusto (Bob Baffert) (60)
    8. King For A Day (Todd Pletcher) (150)
    9. Roadster (Bob Baffert) (75)
    10. Signalman (Kenny McPeek) (40)
    11. Standard Deviation (Chad Brown) (125)
    12. Plus Que Parfait (Brendan Walsh) (100)
    13. Network Effect (Chad Brown) (60)
    14. Mihos (Jimmy Jerkens) (60)
    15. Gunmetal Gray (Jerry Hollendorfer) (30)
    16. Kingly (Bob Baffert) (125)
    17. Limonite (Steve Asmussen) (150)
    18. Moon Colony (Mark Casse) (275)
    19. Moretti (Todd Pletcher) (85)
    20. Galilean (Jerry Hollendorfer) (125)

    Coliseum (Bob Baffert) and Code of Honor (Shug McGaughey) were bigger name horses that would probably be somewhere on the list had they not both run horribly last weekend. One horse I am a bit interested in watching is Still Dreaming (Graham Motion), and he’d probably be my number 21. He isn’t listed in the future betting at this time, though.

    Don’t really see this as a strong group at this time. Essentially went with Game Winner by default, but even him I’m not completely sold on how good he is. So Alive, Gun It, and Global Campaign are probably the three horses I am most interested in tracking given their prices. I liked So Alive’s allowance win last weekend at Tampa, and think he has the most upside of the Pletcher horses. He’s a half to Vino Rosso, so not worried about distance with him, though I hope he doesn’t have a penchant for running in spots like Vino Rosso did. Gun It had a nice maiden win at the Fair Grounds, and I really like his pedigree (Tapit out of a mare who is a half to Saint Liam). Global Campaign had the most impressive maiden race I’ve seen in 2019 last weekend at Gulfstream. Wasn’t the most impressive time wise, but he was also wrapped up pretty early on. He is a half to Bolt d’Oro, and with Curlin his sire, I don’t see distance an issue with him either.
     
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  40. Gallant Knight

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    Arkansas Razorbacks

    No mention of Instagrand? I think you have Gun It way too high off that maiden win.
     
  41. Thoros of Beer

    Thoros of Beer Academy Award-Winning Actor, Tim Allen
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    Vekoma, Mind Control, Knicks Go, Long Range Toddy, too
     
  42. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Knew I would be forgetting someone. He deserves to be somewhere on there.

    That said, he wouldn't be near the top for me - he'd probably be in the 9-13 range. I'm not sold on him being as good going longer. Definitely a top 5 talent in the class at this point though.

    Gun It is more projection than anything at this point. Someone has to fill out the top 5, and I think there is more upside with him than others on the list. The top two are the clear top two to me, even if I don't love them.

    Long Range Toddy was one of my final cuts, definitely intrigued a bit with him. Not all that high on the others though. Mind Control didn't beat much in the Hopeful or Jerome, and I wasn't exactly wowed by him in his races. Knicks Go I think overachieved during the fall - he may not be as bad as he showed in the Jockey Club, but at the same time, I like the top four horses from that race more going forward. I like Vekoma the second most of that group, but his mom was a pure sprinter, which concerns me a bit.
     
  43. Gallant Knight

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    Arkansas Razorbacks

    My 1-2 would be game winner and instagrand

    Not very impressed with this crop but still a long way to go
     
  44. Thoros of Beer

    Thoros of Beer Academy Award-Winning Actor, Tim Allen
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    I think improbable and instagrand are the most impressive looking 3 yo I've seen in training. Improbable's stride is incredible and he's still green.

    Crazy to see the dearth of talent that Pletcher is working with this year
     
  45. Gallant Knight

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    Arkansas Razorbacks

    When I saw instagrand break his maiden a few months ago i thought I was seeing justify again

    It sucks that his owner is a total bozo
     
  46. Gallant Knight

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    Arkansas Razorbacks

    never mind, apparently we are going to oaklawn!
     
  47. Thoros of Beer

    Thoros of Beer Academy Award-Winning Actor, Tim Allen
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    Hope you intend to get up there
     
  48. Gallant Knight

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    Arkansas Razorbacks

    Definitely

    Betting her gets claimed during the meet. Purses have gotten outrageous there. Last year there were a bunch of 15 way shakes etc
     
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  49. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    LeComte Stakes (Fair Grounds, Saturday Race 12, 1 mile 70 yards)

    It’s a full field, but not many standouts here. Plus Que Parfait (12) is your tepid morning line favorite, and he is probably the most likely winner. I liked his runner up effort in the Kentucky Jockey Club, finishing only a neck behind a horse in Signalman who would be a pretty clear favorite in this spot. That said, he did get the benefit of a fast pace in the Jockey Club, and it wasn’t like the race earned the strongest speed figures. He has shown the ability to be forwardly placed in other spots, so I think he can adapt to whatever the pace is. I’m not excited to take him as the favorite, as I don’t think he’s that much ahead of everyone else, but I certainly like him. I picked him second. I’m against the two horses coming out of the Juvenile in Mr. Money (4) and Tight Ten (11). Just haven’t been impressed with any of their races – Mr. Money got fourth in the Juvenile only because nobody else showed up outside of the top 3. War of Will (8) is interesting a bit. His pedigree is all turf, and he is Grade 1 placed on turf, but he looked visually impressive breaking his maiden on dirt. He beat nobody that day, though. He may have the most upside potential in the field, but a) I have a feeling he’s going to get bet down pretty hard and b) I still think he’ll ultimately turn out to be a better turf horse. I went with Tackett (3) as my top pick. I don’t see that fast of a pace (unless Malpais (2) goes faster than I expect), so I want someone forwardly placed, and he will be right on or near the lead. He has two wins already at this distance at the Fair Grounds, and both were solid enough performances. I also expect him to be the best price of the three horses I am looking at. I don’t expect him to have the long term upside that Plus Que Parfait and War of Will have, but I think this could be the right race at the right time for him. May also mix in Manny Wah (13) underneath.

    LeComte Stakes selections:
    1. Tackett (3) 6-1
    2. Plus Que Parfait (12) 9-2
    3. War of Will (8) 6-1
     
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