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Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by mtsucalico85, Apr 9, 2015.
Who wants to claim Dearborn with me on Saturday for $50k
I'm in for $100
i want this
i bet this ends up going for between 3-5k
i have four other "moneighs" from various horses--two in my office and two at home
Moneighs lol. That’s great
I overpaid by a multiple of 5 for this fuck it
does anyone have any interest in owning a horse through a partnership? there is a decent chance i will be privately purchasing a horse in California to run at oaklawn. the horse is an arkansas-bred, and will qualify for state bred allowances and starter-allowance conditions. he has been running against open company in california and has been doing pretty well. i think the step down into arkansas-bred company will be a game changer.
i don't need partners, but thought it could be fun to get more people involved.
if the deal gets done, the horse will probably cost between 10-12.5k with an additional ~1,500 to ship him to oaklawn. the day rate for my trainer at oaklawn is $70.
there is an allowance race on 2.14 with an $80k purse he would qualify for. there is also a starter allowance race on 2.10 with a $23k purse for arkansas-bred who have started for a claiming tag of $8k or less in 2018 that he would probably either be favored or 2nd choice in.
if anyone is interested PM me. i would say odds of us getting the horse are 50-50
valentine street entered at oaklawn on Saturday. i think i'm going to go for that.
What are the monthly expenses on a race horse? I assume it’s more than just $70/day
for valentine street last month i had to pay $100 for dental work and $150 for new shoes. he gets ferrier work once every 6 weeks or so.
i usually get a vet bill for ~100 each month for random shit and its like $18 to administer lasix on race day
That sounds awesome. If I had extra money around, I would be sure.
Justify winners circle picture autographed by mike smith
Heading to oaklawn on Saturday to watch valentine run
Very excited. Stretching out to a mile and class drop could be recipe to success
Smarty Jones Stakes (Oaklawn Park, Friday Race 8, 1 mile)
Historically, horses coming out of the Springboard Mile have performed well in the Smarty Jones Stakes, and that is where I largely ended up in this spot. Long Range Toddy (1) and Bankit (7) are the most likely winners in the race, and both need to be used in multi race wagers. However, I don’t necessarily think they have that large of an edge where I want to take a short price on them. I prefer Long Range Toddy of the two of them by a small margin, but the horse I’m a bit more interested in is Six Shooter (4). He had a troubled trip in the Springboard Mile, where he moved up to 4th at one point before fading back to last. However, he rebounded in the Big Drama at Delta Downs, and seems to be on the right track. I think there should be a solid pace set by Gray Attempt (8) and, assuming he runs, Jack Van Berg (9), and I’d expect Six Shooter to be sitting midpack and attack the pace horses entering the top of the stretch. I do hope is price climbs a touch from what his morning line is. The aforementioned Gray Attempt is the morning line favorite, but he’s gotten easy trips in both of his last two races, and he’ll have to stretch out in distance. I’m trying to beat him completely, though be aware that the 2nd and 3rd place horses he beat in the Sugar Bowl came back to finish 2nd and 3rd in the LeComte. The one non-Springboard Mile horse I want to fool around with a bit is Forloveofcountry (6), a horse that took a step forward with his first start on dirt after beginning his career on turf. He’ll have to prove he can run against this caliber of horse, as well as run on a dry track, but I think he has some ability. In a multi race wager, I would use him with the three Springboard Mile horses.
Smarty Jones Stakes selections:
1. Six Shooter (4) 6-1
2. Long Range Toddy (1) 4-1
3. Forloveofcountry (6) 12-1
Pegasus World Cup Turf is about to go off. I like the 3, Channel Maker. Currently at 7-1, and I'd take anything under 9-2 on him.
For the Pegasus World Cup, clearly City of Light (3) and Accelerate (5) are the two to beat. I prefer towards City of Light of the two. That said, I'm a little interested in Tom's d'Etat (6) at what should be a square price. Currently going off at 22-1. Think he should get good positioning (which is needed today, Gulfstream has been speed friendly today), and his optional claiming race 3 starts back is good enough to contend with the top two. Unfortunately, that was in 2017, and he was taken out of racing for a period. But his two return races later in 2018 were both good building blocks, and I think he can take a step forward off of those.
I know Gulfstream was speed favoring today, but Hidden Scroll put in the best performance I have seen by any horse in the current 3YO crop. Never would have expected this from a Bill Mott first time starter:
Gulfstream can be a bit shaky when it comes to timing races, so take this with a grain of salt, but there were 2 dirt track races ran at a mile on the day. These were the final times:
Race 4 (3YO Maidens, Hidden Scroll): 1:34.82
Race 9 (G3 Fred Hooper Stakes for 4+YO, Aztec Sense): 1:36.22
Quick look at Hidden Scroll's pedigree - his dam never raced, but the dam is a half to Starformer, who won a Grade 2 race at 1 1/4 miles and has three Grade 3 wins between 1 3/8 miles and 1 1/2 miles, though all of those races are on turf.
flew from houston to little rock at 7AM on saturday morning, rented a car and drove to oaklawn. proceeded to have ~15 drinks, ate a steak, passed out.
sunday: woke up at 5AM and drove to little rock to fly back to houston. rented a suite at sam houston for ~55 people (colonelrascals ) with an open bar. watched my trainer win a stakes race. had another ~15 drinks. hit the pick six--was excited--it paid $400 :/
i am tired as fuck.
LeComte Stakes Recap:
Winner: War of Will (8)
All in all, this was a decisive win for War of Will, and he proved that his win in the slop last time out wasn’t a fluke. He’s certainly a capable dirt horse. I still wonder if, long term, he will turn out to be a better turf horse, but you have to take him seriously on dirt at this point. His better speed figures are on dirt, but is that because (despite his pedigree) he’s a better dirt horse, or is it just natural progression from a young horse gaining experience? I like his running style – he can sit just off the leaders, then made a winning move moving out of the far turn into the stretch. If there is one concern, it did help to be forwardly placed in this race. Malpais (2) faded badly, but otherwise Manny Wah (13) was up on the pace and held for third, while the longshot Wicked Indeed (1) was 3rd or 4th throughout and finished 4th. The only horse who made up any ground was Hog Creek Hustle (6), and I thought it was a very good effort for him, but he looks like a late running sprinter to me. Outside of War of Will, the only horse I’d be willing to consider going forward as the distances increase is Plus Que Parfait (12), who finished a disappointing 5th but had some trouble. He stumbled out of the gate, then was forced to race wide around both turns. I also don’t think this was just a starting point for him. He needs to take a major step forward next time out, though.
Smarty Jones Stakes Recap:
Winner: Gray Attempt (8)
I wasn’t as impressed with this race. Gray Attempt benefitted from the scratch of Jack Van Berg, who I expected to push Gray Attempt early on. As such, Gray Attempt, while the pace certainly wasn’t slow, it was uncontested, which allowed him to get comfortable. The three horses closest to the pace ended up finishing 1-3-2 at the end. I also still have distance concerns with Gray Attempt going forward, especially if he is getting pressed. That said, Long Range Toddy (1) and Boldor (5), who finished 2nd and 3rd, don’t really have an excuse either. They had relatively easy trips, and couldn’t quite catch Gray Attempt. I’d have a hard time taking any of them next time out, as they all need to improve significantly. The horse I’m most interested going forward is Six Shooter (4), as he was the only one making up any ground late. With that said, much like Hog Creek Hustle, I wonder if he ultimately ends up being a late running sprinter.
Gray attempt is going to be a good sprinter. He got that lead so easily
The short stretch at oaklawn going a mile-their mike races end at the 1/16th pole-really helped him in that race
One more horse to at least be aware of, looking with an eye towards the UAE Derby: Walking Thunder. He romped in the UAE 2000 Guineas Trial (he's the 15 horse) a couple weeks back, and the horse who finished a well beaten 2nd came back to win another local stakes race at Meydan. I do wonder how far the Violence horses want to ultimately go, but he does have a bit more stamina deeper on his female side of the pedigree. Wouldn't say he's on the level of a Thunder Snow or a Mendelssohn at this point, but he's certainly worth watching.
Want to see him deal with some pace pressure. Once Jack Van Berg was scratched, there just wasn't anyone quick enough to challenge him. Do agree that he has the potential to be a solid sprinter.
We are putting a claim in tomorrow at oaklawn. I’m going to go there once a month during the meet. It is legit amazing
How much money to go in with you on the horse previously mentioned? You ever coming down to Gulfstream?
Also, mtsucalico85 can you post an update to your pics? It's fun to see your thought process, but I want to see your results without googling old races.
Not a great start for me. Of the four races I've posted about this year, these are how my top picks ended up:
LeComte: Tackett (finished 9th of 12 at 7.5-1. Just wasn't good enough)
Smarty Jones: Six Shooter (finished 4th of 8 at 24-1. Was hurt by the scratch of the 9 horse, as that slowed the pace down)
Pegasus Turf: Channel Maker (finished 5th of 10 at 7.5-1. Wasn't an awful effort, just was outfinished. Also, Bricks and Mortar is better than I thought he was)
Pegasus World Cup: City of Light (finished 1st of 12 at 1.9-1. The longer shot horse I mentioned being interested in, Tom's d'Etat, finished 9th at 20-1; he wasn't quite ready for this caliber of a field)
I'll try to keep track of my picks going through the Triple Crown. Even though it may not be what I actually bet, to keep it simple, let's say that with each race, I'll have a $2 WP bet on my top pick. With those guidelines, my record is currently at 4: 1-0-0, -$6.00.
Holy Bull Stakes (Saturday Race 11, Gulfstream Park, 1 1/16 miles, 10 points):
It’s hard to go against Maximus Mischief (8) here. His three starts are faster than any start by any other horse in this field on the Beyer scale, and given that he has already won at a longer distance, I don’t see any issues with this distance for him. The only major issue I could see happening is that there is a lot of pace, especially with horses like Gladiator King (9) and Going for Gold (10) just to his outside. But he’s shown he’s been able to finish strongly in the past even after setting a solid pace, so I’m not concerned about that. I am a bit interested in Epic Dreamer (3), who finished ahead of Mihos (6) in his debut race, and had to deal with some trouble as the favorite in the Springboard Mile. Not sure he is good enough to win, but I want to use him underneath. Going to try and beat Mihos out of the top two spots – the more I look at his Mucho Macho Man, the less impressed I am with it – that was a slow final quarter in that race. Would prefer Federal Case (2) and Harvey Wallbanger (5) over Mihos, and those horses will be better prices.
Holy Bull Stakes selections:
1. Maximus Mischief (8) 1-1
2. Epic Dreamer (3) 15-1
3. Federal Case (2) 6-1
Withers Stakes (Saturday Race 9, Aqueduct, 1 1/8 miles, 10 points):
Of the three prep races this weekend, this is the most evenly matched group on paper. Tax (1) is your morning line favorite, based off of his 3rd in the Remsen. If he runs a repeat of that Remsen, he’ll be tough, as there isn’t anything on the level of Maximus Mischief or Network Effect in this race. That said, I kind of want to see him prove it again, as that was a pretty sharp improvement by him. The horse I like is Moretti (3). His maiden win last time out wasn’t necessarily the most impressive in the world – he’s drifted in and out a bit in the stretch, showing he is still a bit green. Because of this, he is adding blinkers for this start. But even with that immaturity, he’s already won at this distance at Aqueduct, and I envision him sitting a decent trip midpack behind what should be a fairly quick pace for a 7-horse field at this distance. He has a solid pedigree, as he is a half to Battle Of Midway (won Breeders Cup Dirt Mile and finished 3rd in 2017 Derby). The main knock on him is that his Beyers are not strong – he earned a 79 in his maiden win. However, figure makers are split on this race, with Timeform US rating it much more favorably (I believe it was a 110, which is roughly the equivalent of a 90 Beyer). So that race may be faster than he is being given credit for. Don’t really love anyone else here – I think Lucky Lee (5) and Not That Brady (7) will push each other up front, hurting each other’s chances. I’ll go with Our Braintrust (6) to finish 3rd, though I have serious questions in him getting this distance.
Withers Stakes selections:
1. Moretti (3) 3-1
2. Tax (1) 2-1
3. Our Braintrust (6) 6-1
Robert B. Lewis Stakes (Saturday Race 6, Santa Anita, 1 1/16 miles, 10 points):
This is probably the least interesting race of the group, with three clear standouts in Gunmetal Gray (4), Mucho Gusto (5), and Nolo Contesto (6). The pace looks to be on the slower side, which would likely benefit Mucho Gusto and hurt Gunmetal Gray, and that is ultimately how I see this race going. The one wildcard will be the track condition, as there is a threat for a wet track, which none of these horses have run over. Mucho Gusto has the most questionable wet track pedigree of the three, for what that ‘s worth, but I’m not going to let that deter me for now.
Robert B. Lewis Stakes selections:
1. Mucho Gusto (5) 8-5
2. Nolo Contesto (6) 5-2
3. Gunmetal Gray (4) 9-5
Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby future wager is run this weekend.
As a rule of thumb, I'll never take anything under 20-1 this far out unless my number one horse goes off at 15-1 or something like that. With horses 20-1 or less, I may mess around with some exactas, but that's about it.
With that in mind, these are the horses I will be tracking in terms of a potential win bet. These are ranked in order of how likely I am to bet on them - I feel pretty certain I will have some sort of bet on Global Campaign, at the very least.
- Global Campaign (4) 50-1
- War Of Will (22) 30-1
- Walking Thunder (21) 50-1
Horses I would consider using in exactas:
- Game Winner (3) 6-1
- Global Campaign (4) 50-1
- Hidden Scroll (8) 12-1
- Improbable (9) 8-1
- Walking Thunder (21) 50-1
- War Of Will (22) 30-1
- All Other 3YO's (24) 5-2
Can I send someone money to put on instagrand at 10-1 for me?
It was a great time
Holy Bull Stakes Recap:
Winner: Harvey Wallbanger (5)
Hard to take a lot of positives out of this race. It was setup to be a pace meltdown, yet only Harvey Wallbanger (5) actually closed into it, which to me is an indictment on this entire field. He had a dream trip running on the inside with no resistance or traffic troubles, as well as Epic Dreamer (3) and Maximus Mischief (8) running an honest pace, and yet only won by a length over a horse who was 128-1 in Everfast (4). He got the win here, but Harvey Wallbanger needs to run much better if he wants to be a true Derby contender. The bigger take away from this is with Maximus Mischief. This was the first time he’s dealt with any real pace pressure, and he faded a bit down the stretch. I had some distance concerns before the Remsen, but given he ran a strong race that time, those had faded somewhat for me, but after this performance, I’m back to where I was before the Remsen with him. I’m not ready to give up on him – he’s shown he is better than this, and he deserves another chance in a race like the Fountain of Youth, but at the same time, I’m not excited to take a short price on him when he returns, especially if there is other speed signed on.
Withers Stakes Recap:
Winner: Tax (1)
Tax (1) showed that his improved performance in the Remsen wasn’t a fluke, as he edged out Not That Brady (7) and Our Braintrust (6) to get the win. He received a 96 Beyer in winning the race, which is very credible for this time of year. With that said, I still wouldn’t say I loved his race. He may have briefly stumbled at the start, but otherwise he had an easy trip. He also was losing ground compared to the three horses chasing him down the stretch, though he had enough in the tank to hold on. It’s certainly better than the Holy Bull, but I still have some questions with him. All things considered, I thought Not That Brady ran the best race. He didn’t break all that well, he was wide going into the first turn, and was rushed up a bit to get the lead early on. Tax overtook him going into the stretch, and looked like he was going to pull away for a bit, but Not That Brady was closing the gap on Tax approaching the finish line. I think he is a horse that will ultimately turn out to be best as a miler, but there is a lot to like about him. I thought both Casse horses – Our Braintrust and Sir Winston (2) – ran fine, with Our Braintrust the better of them now. I think I prefer Sir Winston of the two looking long term, though. He made up some ground late on the field, even if he was a well beaten 4th, and unlike some others in this field, he seems more well-suited to two turns. This was also his first effort on dirt since sprinting in his debut race. He definitely needs to improve, but I think there is upside here, and he could be a decent price next time out in a race like the Tampa Bay Derby.
Robert B. Lewis Stakes Recap:
Winner: Mucho Gusto (5)
Not a whole lot to say here, as Mucho Gusto (5) won by almost 5 lengths over Gunmetal Gray (4). Mucho Gusto had a pretty easy trip all things considered, but he proved he can sit behind a horse and then make a move, as well as proved his affinity on a wet track. I think this says more about how good Improbable is than anything, though. After Nolo Contesto scratched, Gunmetal Gray was really the only horse anywhere near as talented as Mucho Gusto in the race, and he was up against it from a pace perspective. Overall, I think Mucho Gusto is a good horse, and probably the most talented of the three winners this past weekend, but at the same time, think he’s more of a second-tier Baffert horse, while Game Winner and Improbable remain ahead of him. As for Gunmetal Gray, I think he’s going to be one of those horses that gives an honest effort, but as the waters get deeper, he’ll find at least one or two more that are just better than him.
Picks record to date: 7: 2-0-1, -$11.60
Sam F Davis Stakes (Saturday Race 11, Tampa Bay Downs, 1 1/16 miles, 10 points):
On paper, this race doesn’t have much in the way of proven talent outside of Knicks Go (3), the Breeders Futurity winner and the Breeders Cup Juvenile runner-up. But I think this field is deeper than it appears on paper. First of all, I’ll be trying to beat Knicks Go. The Futurity was a slow race where he got to set an uncontested pace. That race looks better on paper than it really was, which leaves the Juvenile the sole race where I liked what I saw from him. And I don’t think this was a strong Juvenile, all things considered. His last start in the Jockey Club was awful. To be fair, it was on a wet track, but he also dealt with a quicker pace than he ever had before, and he tired. Which leads to this field, where I see a lot of early speed. Beyond Knicks Go, I see Going For Gold (2), Five Star General (7), and Well Defined (9) all having early speed. I’m hoping those four dueling each other into submission, setting it up for horses midpack or further back. I have three main horses I am focusing on – Kentucky Wildcat (6), So Alive (8), and Still Dreaming (10). I’ll narrowly go with So Alive as my top pick over Kentucky Wildcat, though I’ll largely use the two equally. He has already won at the track, and though it wasn’t a fast race, it wasn’t an easy trip for him, and I really liked the way he finished. Still Dreaming might be a touch too slow at this point, and I don’t love the outside draw, which is why I have him slightly behind the other two. All three have strong pedigrees – Kentucky Wildcat is out of multiple Grade 1 winner Better Lucky, So Alive is a half to last year’s Wood Memotial winner Vino Rosso, and Still Dreaming is a half to former Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist. I don’t like him to win, but I could also mix in Cave Run (4) underneath as well.
Sam F. Davis Stakes selections:
1. So Alive (8) 5-1
2. Kentucky Wildcat (6) 9-2
3. Still Dreaming (10) 15-1
Went 5/6 on that mandatory pick 6 payout yesterday at gulfstream and not because of the two bombs, but because I didn’t like the workout reports on the Chad Brown juddmonte homebred in the third leg and moved that horse to a B instead of an A.
Not feeling great this morning.
How much did you spend on your ticket
Total ticket cost was just shy of $1000, shared with some college friends. Had 4x on all a’s, 2x on the all a’s and 1 b tickets. Clause was a B in the third race.
I got scared to buy a ticket after the mandatory payout st Santa Anita was $300 a few weeks back
Yeah I played that one on a $100 ticket. Fuck Santa Anita and their 5 horse fields.
Actually thinking about claiming horses at the end of the Santa Anita and Del Mar meets and moving them to Louisiana and oaklawn next year so I’ll be part of the problem
15k claimers in California are allowance horses in Louisiana running for 40k purses
Also, claimed a horse last night that we are putting in a $65k Texas stallion stakes race in two weeks at Sam Houston
I want to do this. On a minority basis though. Like I'd be good for a grand. Any chance on the horse making the derby or any race on tv?
Lol the derby?
I have no idea how this works.
There are like 20,000 foals born each year and the top 20 three year old males make it to the derby. You either win the lottery with a yearling or decide to spent $500k+ at yearling sales for 20 years or find someone willing to sell you a portion of their derby prospect for hundreds of thousands of dollars
So, you're saying we have a zero chance of winning and we have a 1 in 20000 chance if we just try?
Sam F. Davis Stakes Recap:
Winner: Well Defined (9)
Video Replay In Link
Even if there were no real established horses in this field, outside of perhaps Knicks Go (3), I had reasonably high hopes that someone would emerge. And you can make the case that Well Defined (9) did, as he won fairly decisively and he earned a respectable, though unspectacular, speed figure. It’s also worth noting that he was on the lead, while the horses that finished 2nd through 4th were the three horses trailing the field at the half mile mark. That said, I tend to think that this was ultimately a product of a weak field. It was a fair pace that Well Defined set, but it wasn’t a fast one, and he was out front uncontested. That a horse like Knicks Go was tracking him and faded badly says more about Knicks Go than it does Well Defined – we know that giving Well Defined an easy lead can result in him running a Beyer in the low 90s. When not given an easy lead, he’s finished up the track against stakes caliber horses. The only horse that made up any sort of ground was Kentucky Wildcat (6), who finished 2 ¾ lengths behind Well Defined, and was nearly 9 lengths clear of the third place horse, and Kentucky Wildcat was subsequently vanned off and had surgery earlier this week (he's clearly out for a while, and could potentially be retired). My pick in the race was So Alive (8), and he did rally for third, but it is clear that he is Vino Rosso’s brother. He showed no interest through much of the race, lagging well behind the field, but finally put in an effort down the stretch. He has talent, but I’m going to need to see him put it together for a full race before buying in to him again. I'm not going down this track again like I did with Vino Rosso (and I think Vino Rosso may have shown a bit more talent at this stage)
Valentine running in the 4th tonight at Sam Houston. Will be pretty surprised if he doesn’t win and also get claimed
We are entering golden lullabye in the $65 two altzano stakes that’s running a week from Saturday. Really hope cowgirls like us doesn’t show up
I should have 5-6 horses running at lone star this summer
Need a minority owner? Like really minority?
I can hit you up tomorrow about some cheaper horses
Risen Star Stakes (Saturday Race 12, Fair Grounds, 1 1/16 miles, 50 points):
I think there is some quality depth in this field, but I have a hard time going against War of Will (14). To date, I think his win in the Lecomte Stakes was the best stakes performance by a 3YO in 2019. Being drawn that far outside isn’t ideal, but he raced wide for much of the running in the Lecomte, and it didn’t impact him. I don’t know how much value he’ll have, but if the draw scares some bettors, maybe he could go off at 3-1, which would be fair. He’s my pick, but he isn’t a horse I’d single, though, as there are others I like. If War of Will does get threatened, I believe it will be from a new shooter, and not any of the Lecomte horses – the only Lecomte also ran that I might consider using would be Plus Que Parfait (1), who did not have an easy trip in finishing 5th, but he’d be limited to using underneath in exotics at best. Two newcomers I’m against are the two Breeders Cup horses in Mr. Money (3) (wasn’t that impressed by his 4th in the Juvenile) and Henley’s Joy (5) (don’t like his chances on dirt). I like the potential of Limonite (10), but not sure this is the spot for him off of the layoff – I prefer others here, but I’m interested to watch him run. To go along with War of Will, I’ll look at the horses coming out of the January 17th allowance race – Owendale (8), Frolic More (12), and Gun It (15) were the top three finishers – as well as recent Gulfstream maiden breaker Country House (9), whose form was flattered a bit when Kentucky Wildcat finished second in the Sam F. Davis. I’m not as high on Frolic More as the other three, as Owendale beat him on the square, and I think both Gun It (despite Frolic More finishing ahead of him) and Country House have more room to move forward of only three career starts. I expect Owendale to take more money than Gun It and Country House, which is why he isn’t listed in my top three, but I view him on the same level of those two.
Risen Star Selections:
1. War of Will (14) 5-2
2. Country House (9) 20-1
3. Gun It (15) 10-1