Official Horse Racing Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by mtsucalico85, Apr 9, 2015.

  1. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Southwest Stakes (Monday Race 9, Oaklawn Park, 1 1/16 miles, 10 points):

    I was not impressed by the group of horses coming out of the Smarty Jones, and I’ll be almost entirely against them. Gray Attempt (1) got a soft trip going wire to wire to win the race, but at the same time, Long Range Toddy (10) and Boldor (4), really had no excuses not to pass him, as they sat just behind him all the way around. The only horse out of that race I’d be willing to give a pass to is Six Shooter (8), who finished 4th but was also really the only horse that made up any significant ground. He’s not a likely win candidate, but he’s worth using underneath. As for the new shooters, the three most logical horses are Cutting Humor (3), Jersey Agenda (5), and Sueno (7). I’m not all that impressed with Sueno, as I wasn’t a huge fan of the Sham either, but I do like the other two, and they will be my two main horses. I’ll lean towards Cutting Humor, as he’s been facing tougher horses (he was runner up to Bourbon War last time out in an allowance, and that horse I think would be close to even money in this spot), and I think he’ll get the better trip of the two, sitting in midpack, while Jersey Agenda should be closer to the leaders in what should be a faster pace than the Smarty Jones. Pletcher has had success bringing horses in from Gulfstream allowance races, as One Liner won the Southwest a couple years ago, and I'll give him the nod again in this edition.

    Southwest Stakes selections:
    1. Cutting Humor (3) 3-1
    2. Jersey Agenda (5) 5-1
    3. Six Shooter (8) 20-1
     
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  2. Gallant Knight

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    I don’t know who will win but don’t bet gray attempt he needs to be sprinting
     
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  3. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
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    Gallant Knight When you won over the weekend, how much did you win?

    Also, I'd be willing to throw money down once I understand. I feel like this would become an obsession quickly and that kind of excites me.
     
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  4. Gallant Knight

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    $4,020.00. It was a low level claiming race in Texas.

    I bought Valentine Street for $7,500 in March 2018. He raced for me 8 times winning 3, second once and got third twice to make $26,713 in purses. He was claimed for $5,000 on Friday, so I got that money too. Now someone else owns the horse.

    I have Golden Lullabye in the $65k Two Altazano stakes on Saturday. She will probably be second choice behind Cowgirls Like Us who has Kentucky Oaks points. Hoping it rains and the connections of Cowgirls Like Us decide to scratch

    I own two horses myself, two horses 50-50 with my trainer and 20% of two 2 year olds we bought as yearlings at Keeneland in September. I’ll probably buy a 2 year old either in a couple of weeks at OBS March or at the Texas thoroughbred association sale in April
     
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  5. Gallant Knight

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    If anyone actually does want to get involved we could claim a horse at oaklawn for $8k or $12.5k. I would have to be listed as the owner unless people want to go through th hassle of getting licensed. You have to get fingerprinted and get a passport photo and send to each jurisdiction

    If you owned 10% of an $8k claimer it would obv cost $800 for your 10% and then my trainer charges $70/day, so $7/day for your 10%. Misc bet fees would probably be $200/month so another 20.

    There would likely be a race in 3 weeks after we claim where the horse would run for $8k claiming price with a $22-24k purse

    Winning owners get 60% of the purse, 2nd 20%, 3rd 10%, 4th 5%, 5th 3% and the rest split 2%
     
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  6. Gallant Knight

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    Also, the trainer and jockey each get 10% of any purse the owner makes
     
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  7. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
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    Over the last few years, how much are you up/down?

    Valentine Street:
    - $7,500 - purchase
    + $26,713 - purses
    + $5,000 - Sold
    ----------------
    $24,213

    But how much did you spend in training, food, health, etc.
     
  8. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
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    Where's the race? I'd throw money in just to fly up and have vested interest in the race.
     
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  9. Gallant Knight

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    I think I made a couple of thousand on valentine street, but I was able to write off a lot of stuff associated with going to watch him race so I’ll be able to show a tax loss

    Horse racing qualifies for the hobby-loss rule for the irs which means you have to show a profit 2 of every 7 years in order to deduct shit on taxes. If you never turn a profit the irs considers it a hobby and not a business

    The good thing is that for the first 5 years it means you can show losses and write them off

    The other horses I have are

    Lexi’s Golden Song and Madam Jellybean. Own 50-50 with trainer and paid $3,000 each

    Airline Drive - bought for $12,000 as a yearling at Texas sale and she will debut at Lone Star Park in probably June. So have been paying $50/day since August with no purses

    Trixie Racer and Gold Speed Go- own 20% of each tht I have in a partnership where $100k was put in and I put in 20k. They’ll also likely debut at lone star. Bought at Keeneland September sale as yearlings
     
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  10. Gallant Knight

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    It would be in hot springs Arkansas
     
  11. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
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    Based on this math. Assuming we go with the 12.5k horse and purse is $22k:

    - $1,250 - 10% of purchase
    - $210 - assuming 30 days of training, which will likely be less if it's claimed
    - $600 - Misc for 30 days, may be less
    ------------------
    $2,060 is what I'd be in for.

    To win: Here's where I'm not 100% sure of how it works
    1st Place:
    $ 1,320 - 10% of owners purse
    $ 800 - 10% of claiming price
    $2,120 - Total winnings - I'd net $60

    2nd:
    $ 440 - 10% of owners purse
    $ not sure how this works
    Net loss
     
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  12. beist

    beist Hyperbolist
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    Any of you guys familiar with this? My uncle part of the team that put this together - just a side project for him but seems to be reasonably successful from what I can gather. He's also gotten into the ownership game.

    https://horseracesnow.com/
     
  13. Gallant Knight

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    So if we claim for 12.5k I think the purses are 25

    Run back in 3-4 weeks at same claiming tag.

    Expenses are
    1,250 for 10%
    7/day for training = ~200
    Misc =10-20

    1st place purse
    15k x .8 = 12k /10 = 1200

    2nd place
    5k x .8 = 4K/10 = 400

    3rd place
    2500 x .8 = 2k /10 = 200

    But yeah generally the only way you make money on horse racing is to win races. And if looking at it as an investment it’s probably the worst one you can make
     
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  14. Gallant Knight

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    E44C308E-A9E0-48B9-BBDC-2F71360097FE.png

    But I love this shit
     
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  15. PCH

    PCH 2017 & 2019 National Champions - Clemson Tigers
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    I really want to do this.

    1. The look on my wife's face when I tell her "we bought a race house, sweetie!"

    2. Traveling to see the horse race and place

    3. The pictures for the gram if I'm being honest .
     
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  16. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
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    Just tempering my expectations of becoming a horse owning millionaire.

    But this doesn't include the claiming price does it?
     
  17. Gallant Knight

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    Right if someone claims the horse you get that money back too
     
  18. Gallant Knight

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    the purses are absolutely ridiculous at oaklawn today. four maiden races with purses of 90k
     
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  19. Hogview

    Hogview Fan of the Green board, Razorbacks
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    Are you at oaklawn today?
     
  20. Gallant Knight

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    Nope. Live in Houston. Went opening weekend and probably going back two more times this season
     
  21. Hogview

    Hogview Fan of the Green board, Razorbacks
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    Oh okay cool.
     
  22. Gallant Knight

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    Can confidently say the derby winner is not coming from oaklawn
     
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  23. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Yeah that was uninspiring. I was more impressed by Pletcher's maiden winner in race 3 (Intrepid Heart) than anyone in the Southwest.
     
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  24. Gallant Knight

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    Had a $50 7-10 box so I’m v salty
     
  25. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    Let’s make a bunch of money on the triple crown races this year and then buy a tmb racehorse with our winnings
     
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  26. Kinghorn817

    Kinghorn817 Well-Known Member
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    Anyone have any updated thoughts about Kentucky derby horses and who they like?
     
  27. Gallant Knight

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    game winner, improbably and instagrand look like they will all be in the san felipe on 3.9 at santa anita.

    if larry best had let hollendorfer do his thing with instagrand, i would like him. however, i have no idea what the horse will look like off the layoff.

    i'm confident in saying that i dont like anyone at all who has run at oaklawn this season.

    war of will has looked good at fairgrounds, but i'm not really sure what the level or horses he has been facing is.
     
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  28. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Game Winner and Improbable are still my clear top two, and I'd have Improbable my top choice right now. War of Will is the only stakes horse that has run in 2019 that has impressed me.

    For horses who haven't made their stakes debut yet, Global Campaign and Hidden Scroll are the two that are most intriguing.

    Overall, this has been a below average crop.
     
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  29. UKupNorth

    UKupNorth Well-Known Member

    Any plays this wknd?
     
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  30. Gallant Knight

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    Haven’t really looked but I have a horse who is the 4-1 third choice in a $65k stakes race at Sam Houston on Saturday night. It looks like Cowgirls Like Us is running though and she will be prohibitive favorite
     
  31. Gallant Knight

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    Got 2nd. 13k for daddy
     
  32. Jim Brockmire

    Jim Brockmire I think you're wildly underestimating heroin.
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    Solid horse. 1-1-1 in 3 starts!
     
  33. Gallant Knight

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    I claimed her doe $25k with the assumption Cowgirls Like Us wasn’t going to be in that race-I think it can still work out

    Honestly I might run her in protected races and then breed her. Her dan and 3rd dam are all stakes horses and now my horse has black type from 2nd in that race. The family is all Texas bred. Interested in seeing what the dams can do with top flight stallions
     
  34. Gallant Knight

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    thinking about claiming a horse on friday for $15,000 and wheeling him back into a $50k texas bred stakes race on 3.23
     
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  35. Gallant Knight

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    also just realized that Cowgirls Like Us was bred in Kentucky--which is weird because her sire is a regional Texas stallion.

    Anyway, on March 23rd there is a $50k race for 3 year old fillies in Texas and my horse, Golden Lullabye, will be the prohibitive favorite
     
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  36. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    Good luck and can you remind us closer to the race so we can bet on the horse?
     
  37. Gallant Knight

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    Sure I will let you know when the entries are drawn. Hoping a couple horses racing out of state don’t show up
     
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  38. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Risen Star Stakes Recap:
    Winner: War of Will (14)
    Beyer: 92


    I thought this was another good performance by War of Will, and it solidified my thought that he has been the best horse to run in Derby points races this year (admittedly, not a high bar to climb). His running style of being forwardly placed, tracking a leader, has been very successful over the past few years, and it’s worth noting that while he was sitting second behind the pacesetter Gun It (15), the horses that ultimately finished 2nd-5th were the four trailing horses at the half mile. He was the only one who stuck around for the finish, which is certainly a positive. I think I liked his LeComte a little more, but I don’t have much to knock on him. He does need to get a little bit faster from a speed figure standpoint, but he isn’t too far off from the fastest horses. Country House (9), who finished 2nd, flashed a good amount of talent, but he broke slowly and was super green running down the stretch, lugging in and drifting out at times. He’s an intriguing horse if he can get it all squared away mentally. Roiland (2) was fine enough in getting 3rd, though he wasn’t ever threatening the top two. If there is one horse I’d want to give another chance to, it would be Limonite (10). He’s a horse I thought would need a race, and just wanted to see a good effort out of. He did not have the cleanest of trips – he had to steady at the top of the lane, and had further traffic to deal with until finally getting room to run late in the stretch. I thought he was 3rd best overall, and I’d expect him to move forward next time out at what could be a decent price. Clearly I overrated that allowance race that Owendale (8) and Gun It came out of, and Plus Que Parfait (1) disappointed once again.

    Southwest Stakes Recap:
    Winner: Super Steed (6)
    Beyer: 87


    I thought the first Arkansas race was mediocre at best, and I feel that way about the Southwest as well. Credit to Super Steed (6) to take advantage of a contentious pace (even if it wasn’t that fast) to get the win at just over 62-1. He made a strong move going 5-wide around the far turn to quickly build a 3+ length lead, but that lead diminished to ¾ lengths at the finish line. He doesn’t have a terrible distance pedigree, but he runs more like a late running sprinter to me. If I had to take anyone going forward out of the race, it would be Sueno (7), who was diminishing the gap and galloped out best after the wire. He’ll probably appreciate the additional distance. I just don’t know how good he actually is, and he certainly needs to improve quite a bit to get to the top tier of horses in this crop. I probably will be just looking elsewhere entirely. I was really disappointed with Cutting Humor’s (3) performance – he clearly didn’t appreciate the dirt in his face going into the clubhouse turn, and he didn’t have the most comfortable of trips, but he had nothing down the lane.

    2018 Picks Record to date: 10: 3-0-2, -$12.60
     
    #2288 mtsucalico85, Feb 27, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 27, 2019
  39. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Fountain of Youth Stakes (Saturday Race 13, Gulfstream Park, 1 1/16 miles, 50 points):

    This is a good mix of horses with quality 2YO stakes form as well as some 3YO horses making their stakes debut that have a bit of hype behind them. Hidden Scroll (7) is the favorite off of his maiden victory, and if he runs that race again, he likely wins fairly comfortably. There are things to nitpick about him, though. His one race was on a wet track that can exaggerate performances a bit, and it was in a one turn race. There’s also enough pace on paper to keep it honest, so I don’t see him sitting an easy lead. Given the depth of the field, this isn’t a place I want to take too short of a price, even though he is the most likely winner. I picked him second, but he’s a must use in multis. Both Vekoma (5) and Signalman (6) are making their 3YO debuts after winning the Nashua and Kentucky Jockey Club respectively in their final 2YO races. The Kentucky Jockey Club hasn’t exactly aged well to this point, however, and on top of that, Signalman doesn’t appear to be training like he is cranked up for this race. I’ll try to beat him. Vekoma I could see myself using to some degree, mainly underneath, but I prefer others. This is also his two turn debut, and I lean towards him being more of a one turn horse at this point. Code of Honor (1) ran strongly in the Champagne two starts back, but his comeback effort in the Mucho Macho Man was not good, and he still has some name hype associated with him going back to that Champagne. He’s underneath at best to me. Bourbon War (4) was a horse I was interested in quite a bit, and I still like him to a degree, but after seeing Cutting Humor disappoint in the Southwest, he did lose a little bit of luster for me. Still want to use him on my tickets somewhere. But my pick will be Global Campaign (8), who has the second best maiden win (behind Hidden Scroll) at the Gulfstream meet and the best 3YO allowance win at the Gulfstream meet. He’s been more impressive visually to this point of the career as opposed to by the clock, but some of that can be reflected on him not being pushed in either race. He’ll be pushed this time, but I expect him to take a nice step forward, and given the others in the field, I should get a solid price on him.

    Fountain of Youth Stakes selections:
    1. Global Campaign (8) 10-1
    2. Hidden Scroll (7) 9-5
    3. Bourbon War (4) 10-1
     
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  40. Gallant Knight

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    i think a lot of people are going to look back on this race and kick themselves for going against hidden scroll because of track conditions in his maiden victory. all the racing writers on twitter can't shut up about it
     
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  41. Gallant Knight

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    so, we are doing this. it sounds like someone else is going to drop a claim as well. my trainer's assistant talked to the other guy and asked if he wanted to go 50-50 and he said no.
     
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  42. R2-D2Big

    R2-D2Big Capitalism > Socialism
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    Need a few plays for Friday. Y’all got anything that looks promising?
     
  43. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I just think he'll go off at something like 6-5 or even money, and there are easier spots to take a horse at that price than in this one in terms of a straight win bet. But anyone not using Hidden Scroll as an A in multi race wagers is making a mistake.

    That, and I'm essentially the president of the Global Campaign fan club. If he's as good as I think he is, this will be the last time I can get him at a price of 8-1 or 10-1 outside of races like the Derby.
     
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  44. Gallant Knight

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    have a horse named Madam Jelleybean running in the 8th at Sam Houston tonight. Not loving her chances--but for those who want to follow along...
     
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  45. R2-D2Big

    R2-D2Big Capitalism > Socialism
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    Well, who is gonna beat her?
     
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  46. Gallant Knight

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    mtsucalico85 your big Vino Rossi is running in the 9th at aqueduct today

    Also, have been waiting a long time for Instagrand to return to the races. I think the one turn mile will be perfect for him today. Probably going to put $2-3k on him this afternoon

    Might be going to the Rebel next weekend at Oaklawn. If they get 20 horses they’re going to split the field and run two Rebels with $750k purses for each one. Would be rock hard the entire time
     
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  47. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Won't have time to do my typical previews for the two dirt Derby preps, but I do like Instagrand in the Gotham, despite all of the speed signed on. Planning on connecting him with Haikal (5) and Tikhvin Flew (8) in exactas (of the two, I'd lean towards Tikhvin Flew, as he had a tougher trip than Haikal had in their last race when Haikal defeated Tikhvin Flew).

    For the Tampa Bay Derby, I'm not a big fan of this field. I'll go with Dream Maker (4) as my pick, but I don't expect to have much money on this race. More of a race to watch and learn from to me than to bet.
     
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  48. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
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    Almost went to gulfstream today. Gonna go tomorrow instead. Any suggestions on horses to bet on?
     
  49. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
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    2 races left. Even on money. Someone check this out and hook me up w some tips
     
  50. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Fountain of Youth Stakes Recap:
    Winner: Code of Honor (1)
    Beyer: 95


    This was a classic example regarding pace making the race, as both Code of Honor and Bourbon War (4) took advantage of a pace meltdown to run 1-2. The opening half mile set by Hidden Scroll (7) was run in 45.69 seconds, and it was a contested pace with the longshot Gladiator King (3) pushing him along. Despite finishing 4th, I thought Hidden Scroll was best, as he only lost by about 3 lengths despite that pace, while Gladiator King finished last by 33 lengths. TimeformUS concurs with this, as Hidden Scroll was awarded the highest fig by their numbers in this race (his 120 is actually the highest fig earned by any 3YO this year, and that includes his maiden win). He needs to learn how to relax, but if he can do that, I still see him as a top contender. As for the top finishers, I liked their performance, though if I had to pick one of the top three finishers going forward, it would be Bourbon War. The top two both had perfect trips, with Code of Honor getting the jump on Bourbon War, but I thought Bourbon War was finishing much better of the two, and he had a much stronger gallop out. Additional distance will only help Bourbon War, while I’m not sure that is the case for Code of Honor. Vekoma (5) ran a nice race in his comeback effort, but I still think he’ll be a better one turn horse. My pick, Global Campaign (8), ran a better than it looks 5th. He was not far off that hot pace, and understandably tired down the stretch. I referenced TimeformUS earlier, though, and he earned the same figure that both Bourbon War and Vekoma did. That said, he grabbed a quarter during the race, and will be briefly sidelined, so the Derby seems very unlikely at this point. But he’s still a horse I am interested in following this year.

    Tampa Bay Derby Recap:
    Winner: Tacitus (10)
    Beyer: 93


    Of the three, this is the race I’m having the hardest time deciding how I feel about it. I do think it was a good effort from Tacitus – I thought he may have needed the race coming off of the layoff, but he was ready to fire from off the bench. And of the horses in the field, he’s the one I feel is most likely to take an additional step forward. He has a great pedigree, being the son of Tapit and multiple Grade 1 winning router Close Hatches, so distance should not be an issue for him – his galloping out much the best from this field further supports this. With that said, I thought it was more of a workmanlike effort than a brilliant one, and he had a great setup with the pace that was set by Zenden (11) and Well Defined (5). And Zenden – a horse I had and still do have major doubts about two turns – only finished about 3 lengths behind Tacitus (Zenden was 2nd best, though, and he’s intriguing in some of the 3YO sprint races). I wasn’t all that inspired by Outshine (6) finishing 2nd, as he looked like he was in strong position exiting the far turn, but he didn’t finish strongly, and that he still held on for second I think is an indictment on the race. As was Win Win Win (7) finishing 3rd, as he never really seemed to get comfortable, and he looked like he was going to finish up the track entering the stretch. Yet somehow, even though I don’t think he finished all that strongly, he somehow managed to finish third. I guess overall I find myself being more negative on the race than positive, but simultaneously think Tacitus has a bright future. I wouldn’t consider him one of my top Derby horses at this point, but I certainly wouldn’t dismiss him at this point either.

    Gotham Stakes Recap:
    Winner: Haikal (5)
    Beyer: 95


    This had another vicious pace, which set things up for Haikal and Mind Control (3) to finish 1-2. But the horses that ran the best race were, in order, 4th place finishing Much Better (4), and 3rd place finishing Instagrand (6). The opening half mile set by Much Better was a blazing 44.42 seconds, and Instagrand being forwardly placed didn’t help him in this spot. Much Better was beaten by less than 2 lengths despite setting that pace. I think he has a fantastic future as a sprinter. Haikal looks like a nice closing sprinter, but I don’t see him improving with the added distance (he’s a half to Takaful, who was clearly better sprinting than routing). Mind Control and Instagrand both are horses I’ve always suspected would be better around 1 turn than 2 turns, and nothing that happened here dissuaded me from that. It was a lengthy layoff for Instagrand, so if you want to give him the benefit of the doubt that he needed a race, you can make that argument. But if he is going longer, he’ll likely be a bet against for me.
     
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