Official Horse Racing Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by mtsucalico85, Apr 9, 2015.

  1. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Minnesota TimberwolvesMinnesota Golden GophersMinnesota VikingsMinnesota WildMiami Hurricanes

    Rebel Stakes (Div. 1) (Saturday Race 8, Oaklawn Park, 1 1/16 miles, 37.5 points)

    Improbable (9) appears to be leaps and bounds above the rest of the competition in this spot, and I see no reason to go against him. Galilean (8) should be the solid second choice, and visually his races have looked good. That said, they haven’t been all that fast, either, and he’s been running against Cal-bred horses. This is a big step up in class. I think if you want to try and make some money in this race, the goal is to beat Galilean out of second place. Extra Hope (1) and Long Range Toddy (2) seem like the logical horses to consider, and I’d lean towards Extra Hope of the two. He was no match for Improbable or Mucho Gusto in the Los Alamitos Futurity, but he wasn’t terrible that day, and he rebounded for an allowance win against a solid field last time out at Santa Anita. With Long Range Toddy, he just hasn’t impressed me in either of the two earlier Oaklawn prep races. I’ll lean heavily on Improbable on top of Extra Hope in my betting, and in multi race wagers, Improbable is a single for me.

    Rebel Stakes (Div. 1) selections:

    1. Improbable (9) 3-5
    2. Extra Hope (1) 6-1
    3. Galilean (8) 3-1

    Rebel Stakes (Div. 2) (Saturday Race 10, Oaklawn Park, 1 1/16 miles, 37.5 points)

    I think if you are looking to take a shot against one of the big Baffert horses, Game Winner (5) is the one that may be a bit more vulnerable. His Breeders Cup Classic hasn’t exactly turned out to be a key race, he hasn’t been working out as strongly as Improbable has, and this field looks much deeper to me than the other field does. He’s clearly the most likely winner, and a must use in multi race wagers, but I will take a small shot against him. Omaha Beach (6) looks to be the most likely to challenge him, and he is a horse I will use, but he has developed a reputation for finishing second while being the favorite, and it took a wet track, a cut back in distance (though pedigree suggests distance shouldn’t be an issue), and a weak field to break his maiden. I also don’t see him having the easiest of trips, with both Market King (1) and Jersey Agenda (4) showing early speed. I’ll think he’ll be a bit overbet, though I do agree he is the second most likely winner. Both Our Braintrust (7) and Gunmetal Gray (8) are honest enough horses, but I also think there is limited upside to them. I’d limit those horses to using underneath. Captain Von Trapp (10) is marginally interesting, but he didn’t draw all that well. Still, he’s worth using underneath at a price. I landed on Laughing Fox (2), who most recently won an allowance race on the undercard of the Southwest Stakes. He’s 2 for 2 at this track and distance, and his speed figures have been steadily climbing with each race. I don’t think he’s brilliant, but I thought he finished pretty strongly in his last race, and the well-beaten third place horse came out of that race to win next time out with an improved speed figure. I also think he should get a reasonably good setup assuming Market King, Jersey Agenda, and Omaha Beach ensure a faster pace. In multi race wagers, I’ll lean on both Laughing Fox and Game Winner, with a small amount of Omaha Beach mixed in.

    Rebel Stakes (Div. 2) selections:

    1. Laughing Fox (2) 10-1
    2. Game Winner (5) 4-5
    3. Omaha Beach (6) 7-2
     
    #2301 mtsucalico85, Mar 16, 2019
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2019
  2. Gallant Knight

    Donor
    Arkansas Razorbacks

    Yep I really wanted Galilean to be in game winners division. It sounds like improbable has been working super
     
  3. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Minnesota TimberwolvesMinnesota Golden GophersMinnesota VikingsMinnesota WildMiami Hurricanes

    Pretty much how I feel, although I would swap Extra Hope for Galilean. Both would have been strong contenders in that race, though.
     
  4. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Minnesota TimberwolvesMinnesota Golden GophersMinnesota VikingsMinnesota WildMiami Hurricanes

    Louisiana Derby (Saturday Race 13, Fair Grounds, 1 1/8 miles, 100 points):

    War of Will (6) deserves to be a pretty significant favorite off of his last two races, and he is the most likely winner. He’s a must use, but his races haven’t been so good where I want to take less than even money on him (where I think he’ll end up) in a race where I think there are interesting alternatives, and I thought he ran a better race two starts back in the Lecomte than the race he ran in the Risen Star. Additionally, he already has his Derby points, so he doesn’t need to win this race like others do. I see four horses as legitimate contenders – Limonite (3), Sueno (4), Country House (8), and Spinoff (10). Given the price, Limonite is who I am most interested in. He finished 5th beaten just over 7 lengths in the Risen Star last time out, behind War of Will and Country House, but it was his first race off of a layoff, and he had significant traffic trouble entering the stretch. With a better trip, he finishes closer to the top two, and this was a horse I thought needed the race going into it in the first place. I expect a jump in performance with him. My play will be to key on him in trifectas with the War of Will/Sueno/Country House/Spinoff group, as I don't necessarily think he is the likeliest winner, but I will do a win bet on him if he is anything better than 15-1 as well, which I should get.

    Louisiana Derby selections:

    1. Limonite (3) 20-1
    2. War of Will (6) 6-5
    3. Spinoff (10) 8-1

    Sunland Derby (Sunday Race 11, Sunland Park, 1 1/8 miles, 50 points):

    The biggest question with this race is whether or not Anothertwistafate (2) is able to transfer his synthetic form over to the dirt. If he can, then I think you can make the argument that he is just as likely a winner as Mucho Gusto (1), who should be heavily favored. But I will be taking the negative view on him. He ran on dirt once, in his debut race, and finished 9th in a below average Santa Anita maiden race. Within the next month, he was sent to Golden Gate and has been undefeated ever since. On top of that, he is a speed horse that hasn’t had challenging paces in his last three, and he’ll have to deal with horses like Mucho Gusto, Hustle Up (3), and Diamond Blitz (9) all showing early speed. I’ll be against him completely. Mucho Gusto is your likely winner, and I won’t be trying to beat him. But, in spite of his last effort, I still am not ready to completely give up on Cutting Humor (5). In the Southwest, he took a lot of dirt in his face entering the far turn, and he became completely rank. He thrashed about a bit, and then rushed up on the back stretch towards the leading group of horses before fading. This is still the same horse that finished just a couple lengths behind Bourbon War, and that effort would put him right in line with the top horses in this spot. I don’t really like anyone else here – maybe Wicked Indeed (4) for third, assuming Anothertwistafate, Hustle Up, and Diamond Blitz all fade (and the rest of the field beyond them look completely overmatched) but I’ll stick with exactas between Mucho Gusto and Cutting Humor as my play, with more weight on Mucho Gusto finishing first.

    Sunland Derby selections:

    1. Mucho Gusto (1) 8-5
    2. Cutting Humor (5) 8-1
    3. Wicked Indeed (4) 6-1
     
  5. Gallant Knight

    Donor
    Arkansas Razorbacks

    I like a war of will win with sueno getting either 2nd or 3rd in trifectas. Something like 6-4-all and 6-all-4 is how I’m going to play it

    I was at oaklawn last week and watched both rebels and Im going to play against baffert at sunland. Anothertwistafate is a freak. He is my pick
     
    mtsucalico85 and letan like this.
  6. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Minnesota TimberwolvesMinnesota Golden GophersMinnesota VikingsMinnesota WildMiami Hurricanes

    War of Will is definitely the most likely winner, and I'd be stunned if he was off the board. I could reasonably see him ending up my Derby horse. I'm just really intrigued with the setup for Limonite. I've seen that he's getting a fair amount of buzz, though, at least online, so I don't know if I'll get the price I'm hoping for on him. Maybe it allows War of Will to go off at more enticing odds than I expect? Because if he does end up drifting to something like 2-1, that is pretty solid value for him.

    Even if he isn't in my top three, after seeing what Long Range Toddy last weekend, Sueno has to be used. I don't have much separating my thoughts on Sueno, Spinoff, and Country House. Sueno might be the safest of the trio, as Spinoff and Country House both showed some greenness in their last races, but I think the upside of those two is higher than the upside of Sueno.

    I wanted to go against Baffert at Sunland, but I need to see Anothertwistafate prove it to me on dirt first. I would have been okay with even seeing some solid dirt workouts, but his whole preparation being on synthetic is a minor red flag to me. That Cutting Humor is the best alternative to either of those two horses shows the lack of depth in that race.
     
    Gallant Knight likes this.
  7. Gallant Knight

    Donor
    Arkansas Razorbacks

    My horse, Golden Lullabye, is second choice at 3-1 at Sam Houston in the $50k Bara Lass stakes tonight at 9:15
     
    HuskerInMiami likes this.
  8. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
    Donor
    Real MadridJacksonville JaguarsFlorida GatorsTampa Bay Rays

    So he gonna win?
     
  9. Gallant Knight

    Donor
    Arkansas Razorbacks

    Pretty good chance. This will be the favorites third race in March. Broberg running her into the ground
     
    letan likes this.
  10. Paddy Murphy

    Paddy Murphy Well-Known Member
    Atlanta BravesCarolina PanthersWofford TerriersUnited States Men's National Soccer TeamLiverpool

    Played. Come on son!
     
  11. Gallant Knight

    Donor
    Arkansas Razorbacks

    Talked with trainers assistant and he said she looks ready to roll
     
    letan likes this.
  12. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
    Donor
    Real MadridJacksonville JaguarsFlorida GatorsTampa Bay Rays

    Gallant Knight what are you doing for the Louisiana derby? 6/4/all 6/all/4?
     
  13. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Minnesota TimberwolvesMinnesota Golden GophersMinnesota VikingsMinnesota WildMiami Hurricanes

    I give up with this crop.
     
    Gallant Knight and letan like this.
  14. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
    Donor
    Real MadridJacksonville JaguarsFlorida GatorsTampa Bay Rays

    Turn that 6 horse into glue!!
     
    HuskerInMiami and Kinghorn817 like this.
  15. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
    Donor
    Real MadridJacksonville JaguarsFlorida GatorsTampa Bay Rays

    Let’s go golden lullabye!!
     
    Gallant Knight likes this.
  16. sc_chant

    sc_chant Be A Dog
    Donor
    South Carolina GamecocksBoston Red SoxCoastal Carolina Chanticleers

    So close!
     
    Gallant Knight likes this.
  17. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Minnesota TimberwolvesMinnesota Golden GophersMinnesota VikingsMinnesota WildMiami Hurricanes

    Florida Derby (Saturday Race 14, Gulfstream Park, 1 1/8 miles, 100 points):

    There are four horses that look to take the vast majority of the money – the top three horses coming out of the Fountain of Youth (Code of Honor (9), Bourbon War (4), and Hidden Scroll (1)) as well as Maximum Security (7), who was last seen earning a 102 Beyer while beating a group of optional claimers by 18 lengths. From that group, I much prefer Hidden Scroll and Bourbon War. I thought Hidden Scroll was best after setting that blistering pace before finishing a relatively close 4th. The horse that dueled him up front last time out, Gladiator King, faded to dead last, but rebounded to win the Hutcheson Stakes last weekend. I don’t think anyone has that kind of speed to challenge him like Gladiator King did – both Hard Belle (6) and Maximum Security should be forwardly placed, but they’ve never shown that kind of speed. As for separating Bourbon War and Code of Honor, both had great trips, with Code of Honor getting the jump on Bourbon War, but Bourbon War was the one finishing strongest, and he galloped out much the best. The distance should only help him, while I’m not convinced longer is better for Code of Honor. Hidden Scroll will be my top pick, but Bourbon War will be used heavily on top as well. Code of Honor I’ll keep limited to using underneath. Maximum Security I am way against. This is a major step up in class and distance for him, and all he has done since his last start 5 weeks ago was one extremely slow 4 furlong workout. I’m trying to beat him completely out of the top three. Two longer shots I am interested a bit in using underneath are Harvey Wallbanger (3), who I thought won a weak Holy Bull, but he’s capable of clunking along to pick up a piece. The more interesting one to me is Bodexpress (8), who is still a maiden, but I thought it was a very good effort last time out when he lost by a neck. On a speed figure scale, his 91 Beyer puts him right in the ballpark of the Fountain of Youth horses, and he should be a mammoth price. I can’t see him winning (he did lose by 18 lengths in Hidden Scroll’s debut race), but hitting the board wouldn’t shock me.

    Florida Derby selections:

    1. Hidden Scroll (1) 5-2
    2. Bourbon War (4) 7-2
    3. Bodexpress (8) 30-1
     
    Kinghorn817 and matadorjim like this.
  18. Gallant Knight

    Donor
    Arkansas Razorbacks

    Will be all over hidden scroll if I can get 5-2

    He would’ve won 6f stakes races with that pace and still beat a bunch of horses
     
    mtsucalico85 and Kinghorn817 like this.
  19. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Minnesota TimberwolvesMinnesota Golden GophersMinnesota VikingsMinnesota WildMiami Hurricanes

    Don't think we get the 5-2, but even something like 9-5 would be playable. Not sure I'd want to take much lower than that, since I think Bourbon War is a legit threat.
     
  20. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Minnesota TimberwolvesMinnesota Golden GophersMinnesota VikingsMinnesota WildMiami Hurricanes

    Two horrible rides for Hidden Scroll in a row. Overcompensated too much for the pace in the Fountain of Youth, because he has no excuse not being on the pace given how he broke and how slow the pace ended up being.
     
    HuskerInMiami and Kinghorn817 like this.
  21. Gallant Knight

    Donor
    Arkansas Razorbacks

    At this point I think he might’ve just freaked on a sloppy track his first race
     
  22. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Minnesota TimberwolvesMinnesota Golden GophersMinnesota VikingsMinnesota WildMiami Hurricanes

    He ran too well in the Fountain of Youth for me to think this, at least at this point. It is more likely to me that the Fountain of Youth effort took a lot out of him and he bounced. Also have to wonder if he just wants to go shorter.

    Have to admit though, I'm starting to see some similarities between him and Social Inclusion from 2014.
     
    Gallant Knight likes this.
  23. Sammy Meatballs

    Sammy Meatballs Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Alabama Crimson TideArsenal

    Jason Servis has the best hay and oats in the game. From a 16k maiden claimer to Florida derby winner.
     
    Gallant Knight likes this.
  24. Gallant Knight

    Donor
    Arkansas Razorbacks

    Would love to know what Servis and Navarro are up to
     
  25. Sammy Meatballs

    Sammy Meatballs Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Alabama Crimson TideArsenal

    You mean it’s not normal to win 48% at gulfstream?
     
    Gallant Knight likes this.
  26. Gallant Knight

    Donor
    Arkansas Razorbacks

    Terrible spill at Santa Anita on the downhill turf course dirt crossing.

    They need to close and resurface the track
     
    Sammy Meatballs likes this.
  27. sc_chant

    sc_chant Be A Dog
    Donor
    South Carolina GamecocksBoston Red SoxCoastal Carolina Chanticleers

    Enjoyed some nice steeplechasing yesterday at the Carolina Cup. One of my horses didn't make the jump. I blame the jockey for getting him too inside and just going head first into the poles of the outside wall of the jump. Horse barrel rolled, got up, and took off running like a champ. Jockey did not.
     
    HuskerInMiami likes this.
  28. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Miami DolphinsNebraska Cornhuskers

     
  29. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Miami DolphinsNebraska Cornhuskers

     
  30. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Miami DolphinsNebraska Cornhuskers

    I looked up to see how your selections were to what happened and figured I'd post the results in case anyone wondered.
     
  31. Gallant Knight

    Donor
    Arkansas Razorbacks

    Read somewhere that there have been 23 different winners of the 24 preps
     
    HuskerInMiami likes this.
  32. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Miami DolphinsNebraska Cornhuskers

     
  33. Gallant Knight

    Donor
    Arkansas Razorbacks

    Also, I know I’m about as small a player in the game as there is, but I would not allow my horses to even be stabled at Santa Anita, much less work or race there. 25 fatalities in 3 months is ridiculous. I went to at least 60% of the races in Houston this year and I didn’t even see a horse get pulled up, much less break down.

    The people blaming this on cheap horses being more susceptible to injury are doofuses.
     
    Kinghorn817 and HuskerInMiami like this.
  34. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Miami DolphinsNebraska Cornhuskers

    What's the cause? Just a bad surface?
     
  35. Gallant Knight

    Donor
    Arkansas Razorbacks

    no one has said anything definitively. i think it has to be the surface. as far as i know, the horses are all breaking down on the dirt, not the turf course. yesterday on the downhill course a colt broke down as soon as they transferred from the turf to the dirt crossing.
     
    HuskerInMiami likes this.
  36. Thoros of Beer

    Thoros of Beer Academy Award-Winning Actor, Tim Allen
    Donor
    Crystal Palace


    Bad steps are relatively common in that transition.

    It's undeniable that 1) modern thoroughbreds have poor conformation and 2) there is a pressure (and incentive) in California to run horses often and maybe when they shouldn't run, given low field sizes.

    I think a lot of trainers take whatever they can get to run out there which puts horses in precarious positions.

    Is there an issue with the track? Probably. But, the issue is way more complicated than it's being portrayed.
     
    HuskerInMiami likes this.
  37. Gallant Knight

    Donor
    Arkansas Razorbacks

    broberg is running cheap claimers 2x a month in texas and louisiana and they are all fine. the california trainers are running their horses every 6 weeks.

    i agree it's more complicated than just the surface.

    belinda stronarch trying to ban lasix and the whip are ridiculous. the horses breaking down while working aren't being whipped and aren't on lasix.
     
    HuskerInMiami likes this.
  38. Thoros of Beer

    Thoros of Beer Academy Award-Winning Actor, Tim Allen
    Donor
    Crystal Palace

    Yeah it has nothing to do with Lasix or the whip, it's just an opportunity to seize.

    That being said if Lasix didn't exist bleeding would have been bred out long ago. The best modern sire lines are rife with bleeders.

    In my view the California circuit is plagued with good pedigreed horses that have bad conformation. Cheap claimers in Texas or Louisiana tend to come from hardier sire lines and modest maternal lines that don't get the speed necessary to move up.

    Totally my anecdotal opinion. I think the Santa Anita situation is a perfect storm, and it's a shame. I fear for anything that may happen at Breeders Cup.
     
    HuskerInMiami and Gallant Knight like this.
  39. Gallant Knight

    Donor
    Arkansas Razorbacks

    They need to move the breeders cup.

    Surprised that game winner and other big time horses are running in the Santa Anita derby instead of the Arkansas derby
     
    Thoros of Beer likes this.
  40. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Miami DolphinsNebraska Cornhuskers

    What does conformation mean?
    Can you explain bleeder?
     
  41. Gallant Knight

    Donor
    Arkansas Razorbacks

    their lungs bleed and it comes out of their mouth and nostrils. not a pretty sight. lasix is the medication used to prevent this.

    conformation is a fancy word for how a horse is built.
     
    HuskerInMiami likes this.
  42. Gallant Knight

    Donor
    Arkansas Razorbacks

    i'm going to be buying a 2 year old at the texas two year old in training sale next week for between 20-30k. if anyone wants to be a co-owner, send me a PM.
     
  43. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Miami DolphinsNebraska Cornhuskers

    Why do their lungs bleed?
     
  44. Gallant Knight

    Donor
    Arkansas Razorbacks

    No one really knows
     
  45. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Minnesota TimberwolvesMinnesota Golden GophersMinnesota VikingsMinnesota WildMiami Hurricanes

    Definitely been a down year for me so far.

    Also haven't had the time the past few weeks to recap the most recent races. The Rebel race featuring Omaha Beach has been the strongest prep to date so far (and the other Rebel might be 2nd), but the 100 points races have all been pretty mediocre to me. Hoping the races this weekend pick it up, but I can't say I'm impressed by the projected Wood or Blue Grass fields (Santa Anita Derby should be a good race).
     
    Kinghorn817 likes this.
  46. Gallant Knight

    Donor
    Arkansas Razorbacks

    the good thing is that if you have a strong opinion on anyone other than game runner in teh derby you are going to get at least 6-1 and probably more
     
    Kinghorn817 likes this.
  47. Sammy Meatballs

    Sammy Meatballs Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Alabama Crimson TideArsenal

    I’m making my annual pilgrimage this weekend to the happiest place on earth: keeneland.
     
  48. Gallant Knight

    Donor
    Arkansas Razorbacks

    I sort of like bizwhacks in the Ashland

    Jaywalk is probably cooked. Too much juice from Sevis as a 2 year old
     
    Kinghorn817 likes this.