Official Horse Racing Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by mtsucalico85, Apr 9, 2015.

  1. Sammy Meatballs

    Sammy Meatballs Well-Known Member
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    Don’t feel like John has the same juice as Jason.

    But I do think she’s a need the lead speedball. With how the track played yesterday, she probably wins by open lengths if she gets the lead
     
  2. Gallant Knight

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    Would’ve loved motion emotion to be in this race. I think jaywalk is a definite play against
     
  3. UKupNorth

    UKupNorth Well-Known Member

    Anything for tomorrow from my experts on this board?
     
  4. Gallant Knight

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    bizwhacks across the board in the ashland.

    haven't really doped any of the cards for this weekend.
     
  5. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Wood Memorial (Saturday Race 10, Aqueduct, 1 1/8 miles, 100 points):

    I think this is a pretty wide open race, and I’d be surprised if there was a heavy favorite, since I see five horses taking fairly significant money – Tax (1), Tacitus (2), Hoffa’s Union (3), Haikal (4), and Outshine (10), plus a horse like Final Jeopardy (5) may take his fair share of money as well. And ultimately, that is the group of horses I’d focus on, as the others look to be at least a cut below. Of that group, I’m most against Haikal, as he had a dream setup in the Gotham closing into a pace meltdown, and he just screams closing sprinter to me. He’s a half to Takaful, who is a strong sprinter but definitely struggled around 2 turns. I think Tacitus is the most likely winner, and he is my tepid selection. He was best in the Tampa Bay Derby when beating Outshine, and that was off of a layoff. Tax’s run in the Withers was solid, but the two horses finishing with him have disappointed coming out of the race. Still, I think you’ll get an honest effort out of him. The other two horses, Hoffa’s Union and Final Jeopardy, are jumping significantly up in class, but that hasn’t seemed to be a problem for horses like By My Standards or Maximum Security. I think Hoffa’s Union has the more talent of the two, but Final Jeopardy has the backing of Jason Servis, so take from that what you will. I don’t have strong enough feelings to have a ton of money invested in this race, but if I can get something like 3-1 on Tacitus, I think that would be a fair price.

    Wood Memorial selections:
    1. Tacitus (2) 5-2
    2. Tax (1) 9-2
    3. Hoffa’s Union (3) 6-1

    Blue Grass Stakes (Saturday Race 10, Keeneland, 1 1/8 miles, 100 points):

    This race is a headache. Vekoma (2) is the morning line favorite, and he probably is the most talented horse in the race. But he’s another horse that I look at and think he will be better around 1 turn than 2. This field has enough questions where his talent may overcome this in this race, so in exotics, I wouldn’t let him beat me, but as far as win betting, I’m willing to take a shot to beat him. Win Win Win (7) is similar to Vekoma to me, where he seems like a 1 turn horse, though I think Vekoma is slightly more talented (though race shape may slightly benefit Win Win Win). I could use him underneath, but I’ll try to beat him out of the top spot. Signalman (3) is the third horse that should take a good amount of money, but his return race was dreadful, and the fields in his 2YO races have not amounted to much this year. He’s one that I’m against. Somelikeithotbrown (1) is intriguing if he can translate his synthetic form to the dirt, but I’m skeptical on that. Plus I think he’ll set a solid pace, which could help horses coming from further back. I’ll let him beat me, but he does make me a bit nervous. The two horses I’m most interested in are two horses that have already disappointed me this year – Dream Maker (6) and So Alive (11), and the fact that So Alive (a horse I swore I wouldn’t get suckered into after his Sam Davis until he proves he is professional) is under consideration for me shows how underwhelmed I am with this field. I do narrowly prefer Dream Maker, though. I don’t think he was very comfortable being in traffic in the Tampa Bay Derby, but he did show at least a little bit of run in the stretch once it was far too late. I’ll give him another chance at what should be a much better price. One more price horse that I would consider underneath is Sir Winston (9). I think he’ll be too far out of it early on to be a true win threat, but he'll be running at the end.

    Blue Grass Stakes selections:
    1. Dream Maker (6) 12-1
    2. So Alive (11) 15-1
    3. Vekoma (2) 9-5

    Santa Anita Derby (Saturday Race 8, Santa Anita, 1 1/8 miles, 100 points):

    It’s a six horse field, but only four of them matter – Roadster (1), Nolo Contesto (3), Instagrand (5), and Game Winner (6). Any of those four horses would be pretty strong favorites if they were in the other two races. Of that four, I’m the most skeptical of Instagrand, as I had distance concerns with him coming into this year, and though I thought he ran well, his run in the Gotham didn’t dismiss those concerns. So for me, it comes down to the other three horses, and I’ll narrowly lean towards Roadster. His 3YO debut, where he defeated Nolo Contesto, I thought was very impressive, and going back to when he was a 2YO, at one point he looked like he was the horse Baffert thought was his best Derby prospect (see him not being overjoyed when Game Winner defeated Roadster in the Del Mar Futurity). It’s also worth noting that Nolo Contesto beat Omaha Beach when breaking his maiden, and Omaha Beach is a good enough horse to beat Game Winner. So that shows Nolo Contesto’s quality, and Roadster handled him pretty easily.

    Santa Anita Derby selections:
    1. Roadster (1) 5-2
    2. Game Winner (6) 4-5
    3. Nolo Contesto (3) 6-1
     
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  6. Gallant Knight

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    Well I had a feeling jaywalk was a play against. Picked the 22-1 long shot instead of the 52-1

    Fml
     
  7. Kinghorn817

    Kinghorn817 Well-Known Member
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    Who do you like for SA derby?
     
  8. Gallant Knight

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    Instagrand because I’m an idiot
     
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  9. Sammy Meatballs

    Sammy Meatballs Well-Known Member
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    Jaywalk is done.

    Servis used her up at 2 and supposedly she hasn’t filled out well from 2-3. If she couldn’t win on that speed favoring merry go-round yesterday against a shitty field, it ain’t happening.

    I had the 46-1 bomb in the 5th, but like you, I picked the wrong shots to play against jaywalk.
     
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  10. Gallant Knight

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    I thought Tacitus looked pretty good yesterday. Bumped all over the place and still won

    Not sure what to think of Vekoma. His action is so ducking weird
     
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  11. Sammy Meatballs

    Sammy Meatballs Well-Known Member
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    Baffert is winning the derby again, no way around it.

    I want nobody from that blue grass for sure.
     
  12. Sammy Meatballs

    Sammy Meatballs Well-Known Member
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    And I would quite prefer if it’s improbable that does it for baffert. I’ve got a large double future with bellafina/improbable.
     
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  13. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
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    Solid day from you.
     
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  14. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Arkansas Derby (Saturday Race 11, Oaklawn Park, 1 1/8 miles, 100 points):

    This field is strong at the top, headlined by Improbable (1) and Omaha Beach (3), who I would consider two of the top three Derby contenders at this time. And I do think those are far and away your likeliest winners. They will have to deal with what should be a relatively quick pace, as both horses like to be forwardly placed, and they will be joined by Gray Attempt (6), One Flew South (9), and maybe even Galilean (7) and Jersey Agenda (10). If Improbable and Omaha Beach are as good as I think they are, though, they should be able to overcome that. I think their chances are relatively even, so I’ll go with the better price in Omaha Beach of the two (plus, there is a good chance it will be a wet track, which Omaha Beach has proven he can handle, Improbable hasn’t). But I think you want to play against all the other forwardly placed horses, and use the horses coming off of the pace to complement the top two. Of that group, Country House (8) and Long Range Toddy (11) should take the most attention. Country House is the more talented of the two to me, but he’s still a bit immature, hasn’t run all that fast, and I have a feeling he will take a ton of money – he seems to be the wise guy horse, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he went off as the third choice. I’ll use him underneath, but if he wins, I’ll lose. If the top two falter, Long Range Toddy probably is the one to do it, and I want to use him as a saver at the very least. I don’t think there is much room for improvement, but his Rebel last time out puts him in contention. Two price horses I want to use underneath are Six Shooter (2) and Laughing Fox (5), though I think I’d limit them to 3rd or 4th.

    Arkansas Derby selections:
    1. Omaha Beach (3) 2-1
    2. Improbable (1) 8-5
    3. Long Range Toddy (11) 5-1

    Lexington Stakes (Saturday Race 9, Keeneland, 1 1/16 miles, 20 points):

    If he runs his best race, I have a hard time seeing Anothertwistafate (4) lose. He has run the two fastest races of anyone in the field in his last two starts from a speed figure standpoint. He’s a horse I would key on top, and then try to find horses to connect with him. The only horses that interest me at all, though, are Sueno (3) and Zenden (9). Sueno is probably the second most likely horse in the field to hit the board behind Anothertwistafate, but I can’t say I’ve been thrilled with any of his races. I actually liked Zenden’s Tampa Bay Derby a lot, and think he’s going to be a top sprinter/miler in time. This might be a touch beyond his ideal distance, but this field doesn’t look as strong as the Tampa Bay Derby did, and while Hawaiian Noises (2) and Knicks Go (7) both have some early speed, I don’t think the pace will be as blistering in this race compared to Tampa.

    Lexington Stakes selections:
    1. Anothertwistafate (4) 2-1
    2. Zenden (9) 6-1
    3. Sueno (3) 5-1
     
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  15. Gallant Knight

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    I like Galilean across the board in the Arkansas derby. He had a difficult trip in the Rebel. Broke slow, 3 wide around the first turn, and was between horses the entire trip.

    If he can break better and not be stuck between horses for 7/8 of the race I think he will run significantly better

    Improbable drawing the rail isn’t doing him any favors and I don’t like long range toddy at all here
     
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  16. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Long Range Toddy kind of feels like the Arkansas version of Tax, in that I don't think they have a ton of upside necessarily going forward, but you know you should get an honest effort out of him.

    With Galilean, I get the appeal, but I want him to prove it to me against this caliber of competition. He might not have had a great trip last time, but I didn't think it cost him 1st or 2nd either.
     
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  17. Gallant Knight

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    The short price horses are very beatable, so I think it’s probably a good idea to try to find a price here

    Right now I think Tacitus is my derby pick
     
  18. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    If he runs like I think he's capable of today, I think Omaha Beach would be mine. I do think Tacitus has run the best race of any of the 9 furlong prep races, though, so he's definitely high on my list.

    The horse I'll have the hardest time figuring out what to do with is Maximum Security. He's had soft trip after soft trip, but he also has far and away the fastest final 3/8 mile finishing time (35.96) seconds of any horse in the race, which has been a good indicator of horses stretching out to a mile and a quarter. Complicating that, though, is that the Florida Derby horses behind him that finished 2nd-4th all ran sub 37's, and even a disappointing Hidden Scroll finished in 37.66. That 37.66 by Hidden Scroll is faster than any other non-Florida Derby horse outside of Cutting Humor and Anothertwistafate in the Sunland Derby, and the Sunland track was incredibly fast that day. So I think something was at play, between the slow pace and perhaps the track, that helped make those finishing times in the Florida Derby more impressive on paper than it was in actuality.

    Sub 38 seconds is what I usually like to see, though it isn't a hard and fast rule. By My Standards and Spinoff are the only other horses who have run a sub 38 at this time (Tacitus was 38.57, for what that's worth).
     
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  19. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    American Pharoah's first starter is a winner:
     
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  20. Gallant Knight

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    Wonder who will ride Omaha beach in the derby. Have to think smith will go to roadster

    I’m not sure who is available
     
  21. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I think Smith will go with Roadster because of Baffert, but if the connections weren't a consideration, I'd go with Omaha Beach.

    There should be a few options if it isn't Smith. If Mandella wants to go with a West Coast jockey that he is comfortable with, Flavien Prat and Drayden Van Dyke are probably the best options. If he's willing to look elsewhere, Florent Geroux is available. Javier Castellano (Vekoma), John Velasquez (Code of Honor) and Irad Ortiz (Win Win Win) all have mounts, and I doubt they would jump off of them because it wouldn't be the best look, but Omaha Beach is an upgrade over all of those horses.

    Prat has ridden Omaha Beach in all of his races except the Rebel and Arkansas Derby, so I would guess he would be the rider if it isn't Smith.
     
  22. Gallant Knight

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    I would make Irad say no before moving to anyone else. Win win win isn’t going to have a chance in the derby so I don’t think anyone would blame him
     
  23. Gallant Knight

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    irad riding improbable
     
  24. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Figured I would post some Timeform US data on the Derby horses:

    [​IMG]
     
  25. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Craig Milkowski, one of Timeform US's main figure makers, has a bit of a system where he ranks horses by final 3/8 mile times in 9 furlong races, along with their Timeform US rating, and combines the rankings. This is how it turned out in 2018:

    [​IMG]

    This is what he has for 2019:

    [​IMG]
     
  26. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Smith chooses Omaha Beach. Florent Geroux picks up Roadster.
     
  27. Gallant Knight

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    that says a lot. all things being equal it seems he would choose the baffert.
     
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  28. Gallant Knight

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    Opening day picks for Lone Star Park on Thursday. Going to try to do these for each race day. Broberg responsed on Twitter that he doesn’t think his horse will win the 7th and that She’s Our Fastest will be much the best

    1. 3+ $7.5kN2L – Divine Favor (5) was competitive at the $5kN2L at Fairgrounds. Like the Sharp claimed this one back last out. Shift from Fairgounds to Lone Star should suit this one. Commander McDivitt (6) has beaten a few of these this year and will be close to the lead. Witt’s Cut (2) should like getting back to this level after in for $25k last out.

    2. Mdn$20k – Trip Candy (1) was more competitive after moving to Sam Houston from Fairgrounds and Churchill. Another drop in class should be the ticket here. Bernardian (6) has the best speed figures of the field, but 4-5 on a 10 race maiden is too short of a price. Tinseltown Kitten (4) is in the easiest spot he has ever seen by a mile. Should be competitive here.

    3. TX 3+ $20kN2L – The entry looks tough here, but they both look like they need the lead to win. I’m going to take a chance with Momsabarmaid (8) who has been able to route in his first two starts. (1) Moro Charlie and (1a) Moro Chief have both been in stakes races. So this looks to be an admission that they aren’t shaping up to be what was hoped. King Cloudy (7) is cross entered tomorrow for $10k and he should like that spot a little better. He has burned a lot of money in his last two starts going off at less than even money.

    4. TX3+ MSW23k – Storms Golden Boy (8) adds blinkers here and that might be able to put him over the hump after two consecutive second place finishes in Houston at this level. With the Band (7) moves back into MSW company after trying a state bred stakes race last out that did not go very well. Paula’s Buddy (1) an 0 -34 maiden could be able to pick up the pieces here.

    5. 3+Mdn$20k – Promontory (1) is your most likely winner of the day. Facing significantly tougher at the Gulfstream Park championship meet. The move to Texas should suit him great. Victory Lane’s (2) efforts on turf have not been very good, but the rest of the field is so weak it should not matter

    6. TX FM 3+ Mdn $7.5k – this is about as weak a field as you will see all meet. Not even going to try. We own the 3 here, so let’s see if she can pull through in her first start.

    7. TX FM 3+ $50k stake – I’m going to go with a slight upset here and pick Ima Discreet Lady (8). She gets a five pound weight break over the favorite and since breaking her maiden she has run four races, won two, and lost the other two by a combined ¾ length. She’s Our Fastest (5) will probably go off at less than even money here after her win in the Yellow Rose in March. That is too short of a price. Zarelda (6) looks like the show horse here.

    8. 3+ $15kN3L – Cajun Creed (5) is the most live longshot of opening day. The first time in for a tag and had a great work on the 12th. He’s earned $120k and been in 5 stakes. Fifteen Love Back (2) should also appreciate the drop in class. This one was competitive in Houston at the allowance level. Blowin Smoke (1) is facing tougher here after being less than even money his last two starts.

    Most likely winner: Promontory – Race 5

    Best Longshot: Cajun Creed – Race 8

    Early Pick 4: 1, 4, 6, 7; 1, 8; 1, 3, 4, 7, 8; 1 - $20

    Late Pick 4: 1, 2; ALL; 5, 8; 5, 2 - $40
     
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  29. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
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    Thanks for write up. Can you explain what this last part means?
     
  30. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
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    We went to GulfStream on Sunday to watch the races. Only lost about $20 in the end. Was on the rail and a bunch of people started cheering when horse 5/7 won and I was all WTF? This old man on the rail walked up to me and started talking to me (appreciative I understood that they're idiots) and taught me quite a bit on how to bet. He picked the winner in the next race and helped get me out of the big hole I was in.

    He said to focus on who their last trainer was. In one of the races, the horse had just switched to a new trainer and this new guy was good and old one sucked.
    Look how they did last time at the same track.
    Said any results outside of 6 months is garbage.
    See if they're dropping down classes.

    How good is that advice? He had a different book than the $5 one I bought, and I can't remember the other stuff because it went over my head.
     
  31. Gallant Knight

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    There are pick 4 bets where you have to pick the winners of four races in a row. The base bet is 50 cents

    If you use those combination of horses the first one you make 40 bets using the combination of horses

    There will probably be a ~40,000 pool in that bet at lone star and it’s paid out to whoever gets all 4 correct
     
  32. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
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    I guess I'm confused by the ; in the middle

    Early Pick 4: 1, 4, 6, 7; 1, 8; 1, 3, 4, 7, 8; 1 - $20

    You're doing a box on 1,4,6,7 and one on 1,3,4,7,8? Wouldn't that be $12 for the first 1,4,6,7 box (based on $.50 bets)? Thanks for the patience.

    Late Pick 4: 1, 2; ALL; 5, 8; 5, 2 - $40
     
  33. Gallant Knight

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    So it’s a four race sequence

    In the first race I have 1,4,6,7
    In the second: 1,8
    Third: 1,3,4,7,8
    Fourth 1

    It’s not a box like an exacta box. Just have to have some combination of those horses win the four races in a row
     
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  34. Gallant Knight

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    I own Lexis Golden song who is racing in 6 minutes at lone star
     
  35. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
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    #2386 HuskerInMiami, Apr 19, 2019 at 4:16 PM
    Last edited: Apr 19, 2019 at 4:22 PM
  36. Gallant Knight

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  37. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    How many horses are you gonna be up to after that?
     
  38. Gallant Knight

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    Own 3 on my own, own one 50-50 with my trainer, and two that I own 20% of in a partnership

    3 of the 6 are two year olds and haven’t raced yet.
     
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  39. R2-D2Big

    R2-D2Big Capitalism > Socialism
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  40. Gallant Knight

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    Going to post my picks each night of the lone star meet on that twitter account

    4 winners in 8 races tonight. Won 3 in 7 races last night.

    Best bet of the night won the 8th race and paid $11; best longshot paid $7.60 to place in the 7th and lost by a head

    Gave out the trifecta in Race 1 that paid 32-1 and the exacta in Race 8 that paid 16-1

    Been a profitable start to the meet
     
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  41. Gallant Knight

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    $2.90 ROI based on $2 win bets aka 45% ROI so far
     
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  42. R2-D2Big

    R2-D2Big Capitalism > Socialism
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    Great call on Dragon Dragon, that long shot in R7 almost hit as well

    :beerchug:
     
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  43. Gallant Knight

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    Hopefully can keep it rolling

     
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  44. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    Leggo
     
  45. Gallant Knight

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    Best long shot clipped heels and went down in the 3rd. That sucked
     
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  46. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    Race 5 was nice. You nailed the winner and exacta. And I threw in a tri box and hit that too
     
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  47. Gallant Knight

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    Yep I had that race nailed in hindsight
     
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  48. Gallant Knight

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    That ride by Luzzi on the favorite was garbage
     
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