Official Horse Racing Thread

This is how I'm currently leaning.

Improbable is the most boom or bust to me though. If I were told that a Baffert horse were to win, I think he is the most likely, as his Arkansas Derby is the best performance of all of the Baffert horses, all things considered. At the same time, I also think he's also more likely than the other two to become unraveled and finish 16th. I have less concerns about the other two throwing in a clunker, but how good is their best really? (moreso with Roadster)

I guess Game Winner is probably the safest use in exotics.

 

Santa Anita Derby in general is interesting, since speed figures vary significantly depending on the source. Beyer had Roadster earning a 98, which puts him only slightly behind Maximum Security and Omaha Beach/Improbable, who were in the 100-101 range. On Timeform, however, Roadster earned a 113 figure, well behind the Wood/Arkansas top two (120-121 range), and a cut below the Louisiana Derby, Vekoma, and Maximum Security as well.

Given your thoughts on the Wood, are you interested at all in Tax, at least in exotics?

 

It's not the debut race that concerns me about Maximum Security. It's that he has had ideal trip after ideal trip, and of the prep winners, he had the softest trip of the group. I don't see how that happens in the Derby, especially with War of Will drawing the inside post. WoW has to go from the break to try to avoid the traffic issues.

Of the horses that will take significant money (ie no more than 12-1), he's the one I'll be most against. If he wins, I'll lose.

 

Yeah that's how I'm looking at Tax. Have a hard time seeing him win, but he's one of the more intriguing longer shots in the field to me when it comes to hitting the board.

 

Kentucky Oaks card picks and thoughts:

Spoiler

Race 5: Eight Belles
1. Queen of Beas (3) 4-1
2. Lyrical Lady (7) 8-1
3. Del Mar May (6) 5-1

- I'm not all that high on Baffert's horse Mother Mother (9), who is the morning line favorite. I think there should be enough of a pace between Lyrical Lady and Break Even (4) to at least make it fair for horses coming from midpack, which is why I went with Queen of Beas on top and Del Mar May in third. Should the pace not heat up as much, I do prefer Lyrical Lady to Break Even. I would use all three horses in multi race wagers, though I may lean a little heavier on Queen of Beas.

Race 6: Edgewood
1. Newspaperofrecord (1) 3-5
2. Winter Sunset (3) 10-1
3. Cambier Parc (2) 2-1

- Definitely the most likely winner of the day, and a single in multi race wagers. I think the way to make money is to try and beat Cambier Parc out of the exacta, and I do like Winter Sunset a bit. Admittedly, part of that is tied to being the daughter of Winter Memories, who was a multiple Grade 1 winning turf horse in the early 2010's.

Race 7: Alysheba
1. McKinzie (1) 8-5
2. Instilled Regard (6) 8-1
3. Seeking the Soul (8) 5-2

- Hard to go against McKinzie, but I do want to use a little bit of Instilled Regard on top as well. I think he'll benefit from the turf to dirt switch, and I think Brown has a better handle on him compared to when he first got him from Hollendorfer and ran him in the PA Derby. Seeking the Soul is definitely a contender, but I didn't like what I saw from him in Dubai, and he hasn't exactly been training great coming out of that race. Will try to beat him out of the top spot.

Race 8: La Troienne
1. Awe Emma (4) 20-1
2. Teresa Z (7) 15-1
3. Divine Miss Grey (3) 7-2

- Most wide open race on the day, and one where I really don't like the favorites all that much. I do think there is some upside to Awe Emma, and she is my tepid selection. I don't think there is a ton of pace, so I could see her sitting a comfortable trip up front, and she has shown considerable improvement as a 4YO compared to last year, admittedly against weaker competition. Her dam, Awesome Maria, was a solid horse as a 2/3YO (with a Grade 2 win), but she also took a giant step forward during her 4YO season, going 4 for 4 in graded stakes, including a win in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps. With that said, this is a definite spread race, one in which I would use my top 3 plus She's a Julie (1) and Blue Prize (2). Blue Prize's best may be better than everyone else's best, but the long layoff concerns me. Going to take a stand against Secret Spice (9) on top, just think she'll find at least one better in this spot.

Race 9: Allowance Race
1. Fuel the Bern (12) 20-1
2. Solid Wager (7) 5-2
3. Knight’s Key (5) 10-1

- If Soul Streit (15) draws into the field, I'd put him second. But Fuel the Bern has stepped up his game since moving from the turf over to dirt. This is another race that I don't think is loaded with early speed, which should help him a bit. Don't think I get 20-1 on him, I feel he will get bet down from that. In multi race wagers, I'd limit myself to Fuel the Bern, Solid Wager, and Soul Streit if he gets in.

Race 10: Turf Sprint
1. World of Trouble (6) 1-1
2. Bound for Nowhere (1) 3-1
3. Chaos Theory (5) 12-1

- Simply put, the top two tower over the field, and they should be sitting 1-2 in what should be a relatively slow pace. World of Trouble is my strong preference, and in multi race wagers, he'd be my only A horse, but I would use Bound for Nowhere as a backup.

Race 11: Kentucky Oaks
1. Champagne Anyone (10) 6-1
2. Out for a Spin (1) 15-1
3. Bellafina (4) 2-1

- Bellafina should be the favorite, but I think she's vulnerable for two reasons. First of all, the quick pace won't do her any favors. Motion Emotion (8) is very quick out of the gate, and I think Serengeti Empress (8) is a need the lead type as well. Jaywalk (7) will also be up there close to the pace. Second, I'm not convinced that longer will be better for Bellafina. Her best races IMO have been the Sorrento as a 2YO and the Santa Ynez earlier this year, and both of those races were at 7 furlongs. I'd use her as a backup in multi race wagers, but from a single race standpoint, I'm going to try and beat her out of the top spot. Champagne Anyone is capable of both being just off the pace as well as coming from midpack, which should suit her well, and I thought her win in the Gulfstream Park Oaks was the best prep of the group. I also am highly interested in Out for a Spin at a price. It may have came out of nowhere, but I was really impressed with her win in the Ashland. If that race isn't a fluke, then she is a major player being bet at a fringe contender level. She's been forwardly placed, but not on the lead, and I do think she can sit a little bit if need be. Champagne Anyone and Out for a Spin will be my main two horses. Horses I would consider (in order of preference) underneath are Restless Rider (14), who had a nice comeback effort when finishing as the runner up to Out for a Spin, Motion Emotion (8), who would make a strong case for being my top pick if it wasn't for all the other speed in the field, and Lady Apple (3), who took advantage of Motion Emotion's fast pace last time out to beat her in the Fantasy.

 

Bodexpress is in, so he'll be in the outside post.

 

Kentucky Derby day undercard thoughts and picks:

Spoiler

Race 6: Humana Distaff
1. Amy’s Challenge (5) 4-1
2. Emboldened (6) 8-1
3. Talk Veuve to Me (4) 4-1

Pretty wide open race as far as 7 horse fields go. I’ll lean slightly towards Amy’s Challenge, as I don’t see a ton of early speed with her, though the 7th furlong does make me a bit nervous. But in multi-race wagers, this is a spread race, using my top three plus the favored Marley’s Freedom.

Race 7: Distaff Turf Mile
1. Environs (9) 8-1
2. Daddy Is a Legend (5) 5-1
3. Proctor’s Ledge (3) 5-1

I wish I could lock in that 8-1 on Environs, but she’ll probably go off at half that price. Still like her even with the shorter price, and definitely the preferred Chad Brown for me. I will also use Daddy Is a Legend, but not all that interested in anyone else.

Race 8: Churchill Downs
1. Uncontested (9) 10-1
2. Do Share (1) 10-1
3. Promises Fulfilled (6) 4-1

Should be a hot pace between Promises Fulfilled and Mitole (8), who should be the two favorites. I think Promises Fulfilled is more battle tested for that scenario, so I’d lean towards him of the two, but Promises Fulfilled is more of a defensive use. I’m banking on Uncontested’s last effort being a bit of a fluke, as he didn’t break well and didn’t do much running. His win 2 back in the General George I thought was strong. For horses that should be further back, Do Share and Whitmore (12) are the more interesting ones to me, and are horses I would use.

Race 9: American Turf
1. Henley’s Joy (10) 8-1
2. A Thread of Blue (1) 3-1
3. Digital Age (3) 6-1

I thought Henley’s Joy was best in the Transylvania when finishing a closing 2nd to Avie’s Flatter (8), and I think has been the most consistent turf runner in this group. The one thing that makes me a bit nervous with him is that his one true poor performance on turf came on a yielding turf course in the Breeders Cup, so a wet turf course may not be ideal. Not a ton of speed signed on to challenge A Thread of Blue, so I think he’s a horse you have to use, while Digital Age is more of an upside play coming off of a listed stake win. Those will be my three horses, though the aforementioned Avie’s Flatter is worth using underneath as well.

Race 10: Pat Day Mile
1. Instagrand (10) 6-5
2. Frolic More (11) 20-1
3. Hog Creek Hustle (13) 30-1

I have a hard time getting past Instagrand here, especially if Global Campaign (15) fails to draw in. I’m planning on singling him unless Global Campaign gets in, and I’m assuming he won’t at this point. I think my plan will be to try and connect big prices with Instagrand in exactas, with Frolic More and Hog Creek Hustle the two that interest me the most. Would also mix in Last Judgment (14) with those two in tris, but none of the 10-1 to 15-1 type of horses impress me all that much.

Race 11: Turf Classic
1. Bricks and Mortar (12) 5-2
2. Synchrony (9) 8-1
3. Qurbaan (1) 8-1

Bricks and Mortar is far and away the horse to beat – if he runs his Pegasus Turf race, he’s just better than these. But I do want to use Synchrony a bit as well, as he has next to no chance in the Muniz last time out given the slow pace. He did well to finish 3rd, beaten by only 1 ¾ lengths by Bricks and Mortar (admittedly, that was a B effort by Bricks and Mortar). I don’t expect a fast pace, but it should be at least a bit more fair. I don’t plan on going beyond those two.

 

Kentucky Derby thoughts and picks:

Race 12: Kentucky Derby
1. Tacitus (8) 8-1
2. Improbable (5) 5-1
3. By My Standards (3) 15-1
4. Game Winner (16) 9-2
5. Tax (2) 20-1

With Omaha Beach out, it came down to Tacitus and Improbable for me, and I ended up going with Tacitus. He’s the one horse who has demonstrated he can overcome a troubled trip and still win, which is important in a 20 horse field. I imagine him being midpack initially before making his move going around the far turn. He has won on a good track, albeit against maidens, and his dam (Close Hatches) was a Grade 1 winner on a wet track. I think you can make a good argument for Improbable being the most likely winner, but I went with him second because a) he should be a shorter price than Tacitus and b) he is a bit of a boom or bust type of horse, whereas Tacitus feels safer to me. Those would be my two main horses in multi race wagers, but I would also use By My Standards and Game Winner on top as well. I think I’m higher on the Louisiana Derby than most people are, and was planning on using By My Standards even before all the glowing workout reports on him. He won’t be as short as I’m hoping he would be because of that, but I think he’ll still be a reasonably fair price. Game Winner is who I want out of the Santa Anita Derby, as he raced wide throughout whereas Roadster (17) had a perfect setup. Roadster is at best a defensive play for me underneath, but I’ll be mostly trying to beat him, and if he wins, I’ll lose. Maximum Security (7) is the other shorter price that I will be trying to beat, and I’m planning on throwing him out of the top 3 completely. I don’t see him getting the pace setups he has been getting his past couple of races. As for horses to use underneath, Tax is my favorite longer price horse to use. I struggle to see him win, but he’s battle tested with three 1 1/8 mile races under his belt, and he fits right up there from a speed figure standpoint. Don’t see distance being an issue for him either.

Other horses that I see as fringe type of contenders for the bottom of exotics, in order of preference: War of Will (1), Spinoff (19), Cutting Humor (10), and Country House (20). War of Will is the one I like the most long term, but I have a suspicion that he could be this year’s Bravazo, in that he comes into the Derby off of a wasted final prep race, has a decent (top 10) running in the Derby that gets him into better shape, and then takes a big step forward in the Preakness. Win Win Win (14) and Code of Honor (13) are probably my toughest calls in terms of not using, but I just have a feeling that they’ll be better going shorter (I kind of feel that way about Country House also, to be honest, but he'll be 40-1, while the other two will be 15-1). If I had to use a Blue Grass horse, though, I would prefer Win Win Win over Vekoma (6), and if I had to use a Florida Derby horse, I would prefer Code of Honor over Maximum Security.

 

With Haikal scratched, 1-10 get shifted down a spot, and the 1 post will be left open. Might give War of Will a little more room for error, though it shouldn't change his tactics.

Also saw Mike Smith will get to ride Cutting Humor.