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Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by mtsucalico85, Apr 9, 2015.
My hopes aren’t high.
She is in against Florida breds this time so I actually feel pretty confident
Went to barn and said hi to Trixie
taking a nap but she will be ready to roll tonight
ending the year with 6 wins and $95k in purses.
goal before the year was 10 wins and $100k, so didn't quite get there.
goal for 2020 is 20 wins and $250k in purses. i think it's attainable with the stable i've been able to construct over the last year. in january 2019 i had 1 horse i owned outright and 2 i co-owned with my trainer.
going into the 2020 i'll have 6 horses at sam houston, two at fair grounds in new orelans, two two year olds that should start in late summer, and the two $100k partnership horses that have made $95k in their first 5 starts.
it has been fun talking horses with the people in this thread over the last year, and i really appreciate those of you who have rooted along the way.
6/95k is pretty awesome. Hope you hit your 2020 goal as I’ll be following along. Has been fun this year as it gave me more tracks and races to watch other than the triple crown.
I’m hoping to make a derby trip this year as I’ve always wanted to go but it’s just never worked out with timing.
I want to go this year too. Already looking forward to mtsucalico85 prep notes
I usually start digging in for the season around New Years. Typically between the Breeders Cup and the start of the new year is my slowest time of year for handicapping and following horses.
Would guess Maxfield would be my number 1 horse right now, but that's based on limited information.
Obsessed with my yearling colt. Only second time sprinting and only going 1/16 but he goes by that other colt so easy
I really am expecting big things from him this summer
now just need to think of a name
I often think about what I would do if I was in charge of naming horses. I think I've decided that I would go with a theme of referencing movies from my childhood. In that vein, I suggest you go with Silver Tuna, which is what Harry from Home Alone calls the McCallister house when they are planning their heist. You could also go with Devil's Backbone, the name of the hill in Airborne, or Knuckle Puck, which I assume I don't have to explain.
Who is the dam and damsire?
In gold Blood is dam. Dam sure is My Golden Song
he is a Texas bred
Third dam is a full sister to Alysheba and she herself won a grade 2
Have owned a few texas breds, but none who have started out like this
Probably wouldn't go the naming route related to those horses, then. "Gold" and "Song" related names I think are too common, and Bradester isn't the easiest to work with.
Anything Arkansas related that you think could work? I wouldn't necessarily recommend it for this horse if you think he has a bright future and want to keep it simpler, but something like Fortyminutesofhell would be an interesting name if you wanted to go with something Razorback related.
The three names I'm considering right now are
Fort Smith - the town in Arkansas where my dad's family is from
Agua Dulce - small town in Texas where my great grandfather had a big oil well
Gushing Oil - name of my great grandfathers horse who won the arkansas derby
Windsor Park - name of my elementary school
Don't think you'd go wrong with any of them. Agua Dulce and Fort Smith are my favorites of that group. But I also tend to favor horse names named after cities/state/countries, so that is likely why those two would stand out to me.
Letter of Protection
I have definitely considered letter of protection
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I hit an exacta ($10 lol) on this race. Went this weekend and had late brunch/gambled all day Sunday at GulfStream. I knew i had heard the name Dancing Destroyer before and couldn't remember where from.
Taraz is your 3 year old filly sprinter of the year in 2020
for those of you who get put her in your stable mail
Gallant Knight when are you going to make a horse after tmb?
I was actually thinking about it but the horse I have to name looks like he will be good
Just got back into town and had a package from my racehorse
They sent me a Dancing Destroyer halter to celebrate her first win.
Jerome Stakes (Wednesday Race 7, Aqueduct, 1 mile, 10 points):
First points race of the year, and it all runs through Independence Hall (3), who will be a massive favorite off of his romp in the Nashua last time out. I don’t expect him to run back to that Nashua race, where he ran a 101 Beyer, but I don’t think he has to, as even his maiden debut where he ran an 82 Beyer is still ahead of every other horse in this race from a speed figure standpoint. Should Independence Hall stumble, I think Prince of Pharoahs (1) is the most intriguing runner in the field. Don’t think he beat much in his maiden breaker, but he at least looked good visually doing it. Bourbon Bay (7) is logical underneath as well, though I prefer Prince of Pharoah over him. If you want to get creative, I’m a little intrigued with Polar Bear Pete (5) at what should be a giant price. His speed figures are light (Beyer top of 56), but he ran against an intriguing 2YO in Three Technique last time out and wasn’t embarrassed, and Polar Bear Pete finished ahead of a horse in that race that came back to win a state-bred stakes race at Parx. Don’t think he can win, but he might be worth fooling around with in exactas and tris underneath Independence Hall.
Jerome Stakes selections:
1. Independence Hall (3) 1-5
2. Prince of Pharoahs (1) 8-1
3. Polar Bear Pete (5) 30-1
Sham Stakes (Saturday Race 5, Santa Anita, 1 mile, 10 points):
Not a deep field, but some interesting horses here. I think you have to make a decision on the likely favorite, Authentic (1). He looked good in his maiden breaker, and earned the top speed figure in the field in that effort. That said, he’s the kind of horse I am looking to beat. That maiden race has not come back strong – the second place horse (by 1 ½ lengths) in that field came back to finish 3rd, 5 ½ lengths behind the winning horse Azul Coast (4), who will also be in the Sham at what will be a bigger price. It's also a bit of a step up in distance, and others in this field have raced at this distance while he hasn't. Azul Coast is actually the horse I’m most interested in long term in this field, but there are some questions – his win was on a wet track, and his breeding suggests he should like a wet track. His race also did not come up fast, though as a closing type of horse, that isn’t all on him. He should get a fast pace to work with, as Authentic, Uncaptured Hero (3), and maybe even Scoring (5) have early speed. It comes down to Azul Coast and Taishan (6) for me, and while I may prefer Azul Coast in the long run, I’ll lean towards Taishan here. He beat a better horse in Tizamagician than any of the other top contenders have even faced at this point. I like the tracking trip he should get, sitting just off of the pace but getting first run over Azul Coast, and I think he is one race ahead of Azul Coast in this stage of their developments.
Sham Stakes selections:
1. Taishan (6) 5-2
2. Azul Coast (4) 5-2
3. Authentic (1) 8-5
broke his maiden yesterday for the myracehorse people
Archie is entered opening day at SHRP
Carpe Vinum won his maiden
Bloodstock guy texted me when it happened
We bought a yearling filly by carpe Diem at Keeneland. She looks promising
6421 from the discord is a big fan of lane
Had a suite at Remington for trixies last race and invited lanes agent up there
luzzi will be on the majority of my horses this year in Texas. I have 7 at Sam Houston right now and already have my eye on one I’m going to potentially claim opening day
also planning on posting pics on my Twitter. I was over a $2 ROI at lone star last summer before I got too busy to continue
they’ve doubled the purses in Texas this year. Could not be more excited for the Sam houston meet
I guess it’s national championship time
My early season top 20 Derby contenders, plus 10 honorable mentions (in alphabetical order):
1. Maxfield (Brendan Walsh)
2. Dennis’ Moment (Dale Romans)
3. Tiz the Law (Barclay Tagg)
4. Independence Hall (Mike Trombetta)
5. Honor A.P. (John Shirrefs)
6. Thousand Words (Bob Baffert)
7. Three Technique (Jeremiah Englehart)
8. Structor (Chad Brown)
9. Ajaaweed (Kiaran McLaughlin)
10. Necker Island (Stanley Hough)
11. Silver Prospector (Steve Asmussen)
12. Carpe Omnious (Todd Pletcher)
13. Storm the Court (Peter Eurton)
14. Devil Made Me Do It (Doug O’Neill)
15. Green Light Go (Jimmy Jerkens)
16. High Velocity (Bob Baffert)
17. Shoplifted (Steve Asmussen)
18. Anneau d’Or (Blaine Wright)
19. Azul Coast (Bob Baffert)
20. Sole Volante (Patrick Biancone)
Ancient Warrior (Jerry Hollendorfer)
Answer In (Steve Asmussen)
Authentic (Bob Baffert)
Banks Island (Brendan Walsh)
Basin (Steve Asmussen)
Eight Rings (Bob Baffert)
Gouverneur Morris (Todd Pletcher)
Sharecropper (Al Stall Jr.)
Shotski (Jeremiah O’Dwyer)
Tizamagician (Richard Mandella)
Those honorable mentions are essentially in the 4th tier as well.
I went with Maxfield number one for now. I really liked his Breeders Futurity win, and to date that is still my favorite race by any horse in the crop. The injuries are concerning, but as long as he gets two races in during the prep season, I'm comfortable enough with that.
Of the more under the radar type of horses (ie, horses that are 60-1+ according to the most recent William Hill futures), Necker Island, Carpe Omnious, and Devil Made Me Do It would be my top three to watch.
i would have devil made me doit in tier 1. he is fast as fuck.
his half sister goes through the ring next week. i may try to get her for like $75k and sell her for 750 after he wins the santa anita derby
Pedigree makes me a little concerned about the classic distances, which is the main reason he is in tier 3, but that was an explosive performance.
If I could get future odds on him for the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile, I would be interested.
New cups just got here just in time for opening night at Sam Houston. Got a suite for like 75 people and will be using those to get lit
Picks for opening night at Sam Houston. First post 6:45
I love the Sam Houston takeout on multis
be careful placing large bets. the pools should be better this year with the increased purse structure, but last year the typical pick four pool was like 12k.
i like jazz music quite a bit tonight and if we can get 4-1 on archie, the horse i own in the 2nd, that would be worth a win bet imo
let’s go and make some money!
Good start! Gallant Knight
2/2 and a win for the home team
Congrats Gallant Knight
Damn that was fun. Not often everything goes according to plan in horse racing but we claimed Archie a month ago and the plan was to run on opening night at Sam Houston, win the race, and let someone else claim him and that’s exactly what happened
1 for 1 in 2020
No points races this weekend. Gulfstream Park is loaded with 3YO maiden races on today's card, though. Races 3 and 4 in particular are the ones I have my eye on. I especially want to see how the two Pletcher horses look in their debut races - Awesome Party (7) in race 3, and Palm Springs (1) in race 4. Both were sold for high prices as a yearling, and both have pretty strong pedigrees for when the distances increase. I think I like the Awesome Party pedigree a bit more for those longer distances. In workouts, Palm Springs has been a touch more impressive between the two of them.
Awesome Party is in the tougher spot of the two, as the other horses who figure to take a good amount of money, Kingmeister (1) and Telephone Talker (2), will have the experience edge on him. I think Telephone Talker will probably get a bit overbet (he's 6/5 on the morning line, which I don't get when compared to Kingmeister at 9/2 and Awesome Party at 6-1), so I would lean toward whichever horse has the better odds between Awesome Party and Kingmeister, and if they are the same price, I would narrowly lean towards Awesome Party. But if Telephone Talker goes off at close to even money, there is a scenario where both could be bettable. Something in the 4-1 to 5-1 range seems fair for either horse.
Palm Springs, on the other hand, is facing all first time starters except for one, and the one returning starter will be among the long shots. Seems like the two horses that will take the bulk of the betting will be Palm Springs and the Servis horse, Epic West (4). I expect both horses to get bet down to under 2-1, so I probably won't be playing this race. I'd probably slightly lean towards Epic West in this spot, as I think the 6 furlong distance might benefit him more than it will Palm Springs. If Epic West does stay at his 3-1 morning line, or even only drops to 5/2, he might be worth a shot at that point, but I don't think that will happen.
Just saw that Doug O'Neill is going to give Devil Made Me Doit 2 months off - he came out of the race sore.
22.5k pick five carryover today
luzzi blew it up with a 40-1 winner
yeah I had a double with that horse and the luzzi horse in the finale but he couldn’t close it out for me. I’ll be playing that carry