Official Horse Racing Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by mtsucalico85, Apr 9, 2015.

  1. Gallant Knight

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    530k more bet at Sam houston on opening night this year versus last. Doubling the purses = better races = more betting
     
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  2. Sammy Meatballs

    Sammy Meatballs Well-Known Member
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    Big fields, low takeout, Lane Luzzi

    recipe for success
     
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  3. texasraider

    texasraider thanks
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    I wish Lone Star Park would do something to get better races. Great venue
     
  4. Gallant Knight

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    Their maiden and allowance races last year were like 22k purses. They’ll be 42-45 this year. They’ll have a significantly better product this summer

    I actually hate the layout of lone star. Probably my least favorite track I’ve been to
     
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  5. Gallant Knight

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    Let’s try this again. Thought I would have a great day after picking the first race and Archie winning the second. Didn’t work out that way
     
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  6. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    So I wasn't impressed with either Race 3 or Race 4 at Gulfstream today. This was the performance that stood out to me:

    Caracaro is horse trained by Gustavo Delgado. This was his second start (he finished 2nd to a decent horse in Premier Star), and he completed the mile in 1:35.16 (compare that to the 1:35.86 that was ran in Race 2 or the 1:36.92 that was ran in Race 3, the other two races at a mile today). He has a pretty interesting pedigree, too. He's a son of Uncle Mo out of a dam named Peace Time. Peace Time herself did not do much on the track, but she is the daughter of War Front and Santa Catarina, who finished 2nd in the 2003 Kentucky Oaks. It might not be a pedigree that screams being best at the classic distance, but there is enough distance influence where I wouldn't dismiss it either. I don't see a reason at this point why he can't stretch out further and still be successful.

    He'll be worth tracking on the Florida series of races.
     
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  7. Gallant Knight

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    naming him Policy Limit
     
  8. Gallant Knight

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    Winners circle picture from opening night

    A1868736-911D-4671-93AD-5AC639C4F550.jpeg
     
  9. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Lecomte Stakes (Saturday Race 13, Fair Grounds, 1 1/16 miles, 10 points):

    This is a race with some interesting talent and pedigrees, but I don’t see a true standout. Scabbard (4) will likely be your favorite, and he’s certainly logical – his runner up in the Iroquois to Dennis’ Moment is the best race that any horse in this field has run. I think he should get a decent trip, with a fast pace expected to develop that he can sit off of. I just wasn’t enthused by his effort in the Breeders Cup. He isn’t a toss by any stretch, and he is probably the most likely winner, but I’ll try to take a shot against him. Mr. Monomoy (2) is set up to be the 2nd choice. He is a half to the champion filly Monomoy Girl, and ran a decent second to Lynn’s Map (14) last time out (Lynn’s Map is likely to scratch out of this spot and run in Arkansas next week). But that’s as far as I’d go – decent. He needs to take a step forward to be a contender, and I prefer others over him. Pace scenario doesn’t really favor him, either. I like the potential of Halo Again (7), but I prefer him on turf or synthetic. Three of the top five horses from the Kentucky Jockey Club are in this field – Finnick the Fierce (1), Enforceable (10), and New Eagle (6) – and I think the first two in particular are interesting. Enforceable is a full brother to Mohaymen (4th place finisher in 2016 Derby) and a half to 2013 Breeders Cup Juvenile winner New Year’s Day. I think he is a contender, but he also seems to have a little steam as a wise guy horse, so I don’t expect him to be his 15-1 morning line. I picked him 4th. I do prefer Finnick the Fierce among the Kentucky Jockey Club horses, as I liked the run he put in more than I did for Enforceable, and think he is ahead of him at this point. He certainly ran his best race when finishing 2nd in that race, and while you can argue that the wet track moved him up, he’s been working on a different level coming out of that race. I just think he is an improving horse. You won’t get the 87-1 he was that day, but he’s 15-1 on the morning line, and I don’t think he’ll stray too far from there. But my top pick is Silver State (9). He was beaten by a nose as the favorite last time out, but the horse that beat him is Necker Island – a horse I have a pretty high opinion on – and he’s come out of the race with a series of strong works. I do have some questions about how far he wants to go down the road, but I think this distance is within his grasp, and if he is going to take a Derby prep race, this is the one he is set up for.

    Lecomte Stakes selections:
    1. Silver State (8) 5-1
    2. Finnick the Fierce (1) 15-1
    3. Scabbard (4) 7/2
     
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  10. Gallant Knight

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    Biggest day of my racing career tomorrow

    two entries and claiming two
     
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  11. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    which horses? and seems like lane luzzi is pretty hot. he gonna keep crushing it?
     
  12. Gallant Knight

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    Luzzi and deshawn Parker are probably the best two jockeys in the colony.

    luzzi will be on Airline Drive in the 4th. I would be happy with a 3rd place for her

    bode on tap in the 7th should be tough

    would rather not put online which I’m planning on claiming
     
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  13. Gallant Knight

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    Ended up with a 3rd and a 4th last night. Both horses hadn’t run since September and actually ran their best speed figures so that is promising going forward

    claimed a filly named Herbs Love who got second by half a length in a race for fillies and mares who have never won 3 races. And that actually worked out perfect because she also ran her best ever speed figure and she is still eligible for the non 3. Whenever you claim a horse in a non winners of x race you want them to run well but not win so they are still eligible for the race
     
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  14. Gallant Knight

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    Also, I think a handful of people on here bought into Dancing Destroyer. She runs in the 10th race at Gulfstream today in an allowance race with a $45,000 purse

    post time is 3:35 central. She’s 6-1 on the morning line
     
  15. Kinghorn817

    Kinghorn817 Well-Known Member
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    Anybody have any leans on who and what they like for The Pegasus this upcoming weekend?
     
  16. Sammy Meatballs

    Sammy Meatballs Well-Known Member
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    Draw is wednesday, I’ll start forming opinions once I know who is where.
     
  17. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Lecomte Stakes Recap:
    Winner: Enforceable (10)
    Beyer: 89



    Wouldn't say this was a great race by any stretch, but this has probably been the best stakes race in 2020 to this point. Enforceable (10) got the win, and there are definitely things to like about him. I've talked about his pedigree, which bodes favorably for him going forward, and he has a strong closing kick - this race set up for him pretty well with the contested pace, but there were other contenders that had the benefit of that (Silver State (9), Finnick the Fierce (1)), and he was just better than them. Those two were fine, finishing 2nd and 4th, and both could be horses that may pick up pieces to get a minor prize in some of these prep races, but may not be strong win contenders at the highest level. Outside of the winner, the two horses that I think have the most room for improvement are Mr. Monomoy (2) and Scabbard (4). Mr. Monomoy was the only horse that was anywhere near the pace that hung around at the finish. Scabbard, meanwhile, had to deal with some traffic trouble moving into the stretch. I still wanted to see him finish a little bit better than he did, but he hadn't raced since the Breeders Cup, so he may have needed the race. I do prefer Mr. Monomoy of the two coming out of this race - he and Enforceable are the two I most want to follow going forward.

    That said, you can make the argument that the best 3YO to race at Fair Grounds on Saturday was no in the Lecomte - it was a horse in an allowance race on the undercard. At the same distance as the Lecomte, Blackberry Wine ran a half second faster than Enforceable did, and earned a 94 Beyer while doing it. He did have a pretty easy trip, though, and Enforceable did finish stronger than Blackberry Wine did in the final 1 1/16th of a mile of their respective races. Blackberry Wine is worth following, but I could see that being a race that looks better on paper that it actually was on the track, and I think I'd lean towards Enforceable and Mr. Monomoy over him at this point.
     
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  18. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I am looking forward to the Smarty Jones Stakes on Friday - I think that is a pretty strong field for this time of year, all things considered. Asmussen has a quartet of horses - three of which figure to be contenders, plus Lynn's Map (who beat Mr. Monomoy last time out) and Three Technique both have some promise. And none of those horses are the Grade 1 winning horse in the field.
     
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  19. Kinghorn817

    Kinghorn817 Well-Known Member
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    Sad to hear Omaha Beach is retiring.
     
  20. Gallant Knight

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    Pegasus was going to be his last race anyway
     
  21. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Smarty Jones Stakes (Friday Race 8, Oaklawn Park, 1 mile, 10 points):

    This seems like a pretty strong field for a January prep race. Silver Prospector (2) is the morning line favorite coming off of his win in the Kentucky Jockey Club, and he’s probably your most likely winner. He’s taken a big step forward since switching from turf to dirt. I picked him second, but he’s a must use in multi-race wagers. But I will try to beat him with Three Technique (9), who I thought looked fantastic in his maiden breaker two starts back, and won rather easily coming off of a small layoff back in November – a race that has been somewhat productive coming out of it, with the 4th place finisher returning to win a $100k stakes race at Parx. And given the depth of this race, I think he’s a playable price if he goes off around his morning line odds. Beyond those two, I figure Gold Street (6), Shoplifted (7), and Lynn’s Map (8) will take some money, and cases can be made for all of them. Of those, Gold Street is the one I’ll be the most against, as he has been campaigned as if he’ll be a sprinter, and I lean towards that being the type of horse he'll end up being. As for the other two, I’d lean towards Lynn’s Map, as his allowance win last time out was flattered a bit by a good performance by Mr. Monomoy in the Lecomte. Both are usable, but I do prefer others. I’ll be against the one Grade 1 winner in the field – Nucky (4) – as he has been dreadful in his past two starts. Among the longer shots, the one horse I’m interested in using at least underneath would be Shared Sense (3). He’s still a maiden, but he has finished 2nd in his last two starts to Lynn’s Map by a ½ lengths and to Blackberry Wine, who was arguably the top 3YO that ran at the Fair Grounds last weekend. He’s been working strong coming out of the race as well.

    Smarty Jones Stakes selections:
    1. Three Technique (9) 9/2
    2. Silver Prospector (2) 5/2
    3. Shared Sense (3) 12-1
     
    #3121 mtsucalico85, Jan 23, 2020
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2020
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  22. Gallant Knight

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    Something is not adding up with my racehorse.

    They/we own 25% of dancing destroyer

    after her race in 12/15 this was included in the financial breakdown:

    -Race Result: 1st place; $24,000.00 prize
    -MRH Owners Stake: 25%; $6,000 ($24/ share)
    -MRH Owners Projected Expenses: Race $1,320; Management Fee $600.00
    -Projected Available Balance: $4,080.00
    -Current Reserve: $4,921.97
    -Projected Reserve: Top off $2,684.44, Post Race: $7,606.41

    now, after her race on 1/19 it was this:

    -Race Result: 3rd place; $4,400 prize
    -MRH Owners Stake: 25%; $1,100 prize ($4.40/share)
    -MRH Owners Projected Expenses: Race $242.00; Management Fee $110.00
    -Projected Available Balance: $748.00
    -Current Reserve $3,989.61
    -Projected Reserve: Top Off $748 Post Race $4,737.81



    So, unless I’m wrong which is definitely possibly, it looks like the reserve for training bills went down 3,600. My racehorse should just be paying 25% of these bills as they only own 25% of the horse.

    so that would mean her monthly bill was like $14.5k

    This makes no sense. Bafferts day rate is like $115 a day
     
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  23. Gallant Knight

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    Just sent an email and claims the trainer was behind on his bill lol
     
  24. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
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    Headed to Gulfstream in a few. Any tips
     
  25. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I've only looked at the two Pegasus races on the card, and I don't have any terribly strong opinions on the Turf. The two horses I would be somewhat interested in for the Turf race are Instilled Regard (6) and Admissions Office (7), to go along with Without Parole (3), who is the most likely winner from my view. Not sure if I'll have much money in this spot.

    For the dirt race, Tax (2) and Higher Power (6) are your most likely winners (and I would lean towards Tax of the two if it came down to it), but neither are the type of horse I would want to take at 7-2 or less, which I think they could both go off at. But beyond those two, the one horse that intrigues me is Seeking the Soul (4), and between the two races, he would be the one I'd be most likely to fool around with. His recent form leaves something to be desired for sure, but you can argue that he didn't like racing in California (3 of his starts). Can't argue the track was the issue in the 4th start (the Clark), but while he was no win threat, he didn't have the easiest of trips that day either. He's been able to get a little bit of a breather, and has worked out nicely in the lead up to the race. If (and this is a big if) he can regain his form from the first half of 2019, when he finished 2nd in this race to City of Light last year and won the Stephen Foster, I think he could be dangerous at what should be a big price.
     
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  26. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
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    So give me two bets. Won’t hold it against you
     
  27. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I would first start with a WPS bet on Seeking the Soul, then would look at doing exacta boxes involving Seeking the Soul with both Tax and Higher Power. Three ways of doing this that I would consider:

    1st Way: Box all three together in one exacta box (2,4,6). Not the most efficient, but would give you at least something to fall back on in case Seeking the Soul doesn't fire.
    2nd Way: Key Seeking the Soul with those two (4 with 2,6; 2,6 with 4).
    3rd Way: Split them into separate exacta boxes, then give weight toward whichever of the shorter priced horses you'd prefer. I prefer Tax over Higher Power, so in this example, I would put more money into the exacta box with Tax-Seeking the Soul (2,4), and less money into the Higher Power-Seeking the Soul exacta box (4,6).

    I would lean towards the first way in this case just to give you some more flexibility, and to keep it a bit more simple.
     
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  28. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
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    First Bet race 7.
    5 to win and 4 to show (wife’s pick).
     
  29. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
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    Race 8 I like 5. She likes 6
     
  30. Gallant Knight

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    I have five horses entered over the next seven days. I am fucking hyped
     
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  31. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
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    How bout race 11. 3.5 ROI at the moment
     
  32. mal630

    mal630 Well-Known Member
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    I can only bet winners without going to a track but I got a little of Tax +525 and Seeking the Soul +1415
     
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  33. Hogview

    Hogview Fan of the Green board, Razorbacks
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    My buddies horse won the Pegasus world turf invitational yesterday. Really good looking horse.
     
  34. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Smarty Jones Stakes Recap
    Winner: Gold Street (6)
    Beyer: 95


    Gold Street gets the win and a pretty nice speed figure for this time of year, but I don’t think he could have had a more ideal setup that what he got. He got a wet track (which he now has 3 wins on, compared to no wins on a dry track), and when his two expected pace rivals did not show early speed (Lykan (1) decided to rate, and Nucky (4) showed absolutely nothing), he was able to set a slow pace that was not contested all that much (and it was a day at Oaklawn where it already slightly favored being forwardly placed). I can’t see how he gets everything so perfectly when he returns in the Southwest, and he’ll be a bet against. And on that note, I can be a bit more forgiving towards the clear runner-up Three Technique (9). He didn’t have the worst trip in the world to be sure, but Gold Street had the more favorable setup of the two, and while he didn’t get to him at the wire, Three Technique did have the stronger gallop out. And while he didn’t win, it is a positive that he earned a new career top Beyer with a 90. I wouldn’t upgrade him after this effort, but I don’t see too much of a reason to downgrade him either. Silver Prospector (4) definitely had the worst of it from a pace perspective, given that he was last at the half mile mark. I still would have liked to see him get a little closer than a well-beaten 4th. I’d still take Silver Prospector over the third place finished Shoplifted (7) moving forward given the difference in trips, but I’m not as enthused with his future as I was coming into the race.
     
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  35. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Withers Stakes (Saturday Race 8, Aqueduct, 1 1/8 miles, 10 points)

    This is the most wide open race of the three races with qualifying points this weekend. Shotski (5) should be favored based off of his win in the Remsen. That said, he had absolutely everything his own way that day, and it isn’t as if he holds a massive speed figure advantage over the field. He’s the kind of horse I’d like to play against. I prefer Portos (8), who has already ran three races at a mile and an eighth and won by a large margin last time out when breaking his maiden. It should be noted that his win was on a wet track, but he had been showing steady improvement going into that race, so I’m not ready to say it was the track that moved him up. Max Player (3) and Prince of Pharoahs (6) are usable underneath, with Max Player being a fringe win contender for me.

    Withers Stakes selections:
    1. Portos (8) 3-1
    2. Max Player (3) 9-2
    3. Shotski (5) 2-1

    Holy Bull Stakes (Saturday Race 11, Gulfstream Park, 1 1/16 miles, 10 points)

    Tiz the Law (3) will be a heavy favorite coming into this race, and based on his accomplishments compared to the rest of the field, it is hard to make a strong case against him. However, over recent years the Holy Bull has given top 2YO horses that are making their 3YO debut some trouble. Over the past decade, three 2YO champions (Classic Empire, Shanghai Bobby, and Hansen) lost their 3YO debut in the Holy Bull, plus Maximus Mischief finished 3rd after being a heavy favorite last season. Also, I could see a scenario where this is just a starting point for Barclay Tagg in getting Tiz the Law to peak later this spring. With that in mind, while Tiz the Law will be my top pick, I wouldn’t quite single him. The clear options behind him are the horses coming out of a local allowance race, Ete Indian (4) and Toledo (1). Ete Indian won the race, but I didn’t love the way he finished that race, and don’t think increasing in distance is ideal for him. Toledo would be the other horse for me to use, and I expect him to turn the tables on Ete Indian at the very least. Is he good enough to beat Tiz the Law? If we get Tiz the Law’s A race, probably not, but if we get Tiz the Law’s B- race? I think he has a puncher’s chance.

    Holy Bull Stakes selections:
    1. Tiz the Law (3) 3-5
    2. Toledo (1) 7-2
    3. Ete Indian (4) 6-1

    Robert B. Lewis Stakes (Saturday Race 6, Santa Anita, 1 1/16 miles, 10 points)

    I think this is the race we will learn the most from of the group. I like Thousand Words (2) quite a bit, and I think he has a bright future. Between the two Baffert’s, I much prefer him to High Velocity (5). He’s a must use in multi-race wagers, and is the most likely winner of the race. That said, I will give a small chance to Tizamagician (3) to pull a minor upset. I thought his maiden breaker was a strong race, and this is a pretty confident move for Mandella to make – there are only six instances of Mandella going from a maiden win directly to a graded stakes race, and two of those were Paradise Woods and Omaha Beach. It should be noted that it took Omaha Beach a while to break his maiden, but once he did, he became arguably the top horse in the crop. I don’t think Tizamagician is as good as Omaha Beach was, but there is at least enough to intrigue me. Will go with High Velocity almost by default for third, but it is really about the top two for me.

    Robert B. Lewis Stakes selections:
    1. Tizamagician (3) 3-1
    2. Thousand Words (2) 4-5
    3. High Velocity (5) 3-1
     
  36. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
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    Headed to races at gulfstream tomorrow bc family is in town for Super Bowl. Any suggestions would be appreciated.
     
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  37. Gallant Knight

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    The holy bull, picked above, is running tomorrow at GP. Prep for the derby
     
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  38. matadorjim

    matadorjim Well-Known Member
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    That was a pretty impressive performance by Tiz the Law.
     
  39. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
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    Didn’t bet bc odds were so shitty but it was an impressive run.
     
  40. Gallant Knight

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    And after this pick my ROI at Sam Houston is $2.16 based on $2 win bets. I’ve posted picks every day of the meet other than the day I played in a handicapping competition. Considering the takeout is 18%, or the equivalent of -118 for those who bet spots, I’m pretty proud of that



    77E2BAFB-B5FC-4D6B-A483-2A3F1FAC5FBE.png
     
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  41. Gallant Knight

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    I have a colt that just turned two that we are really excited about-Policy Limit (Sammy Meatballs ). Just made a deal to buy his mom and she is in foal and about to give birth to his full sibling.

    getting into the breeding game!
     
  42. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
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    Can you give a full list of all your current horses? I added a couple in Equibase and it's cool to get the email when your horses are running.
     
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  43. Gallant Knight

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    Golden Lullabye
    Airline Drive
    Herb’s Love
    Bode on Tap
    Legendary Song
    Iza Daddy
    Turbo Street
    Myblendofwhisky
    Gustnado
    Trixie Racer
    Gold Speed Go
    Policy Limit
    Paydiem
    Dancing Destroyer

    :/
     
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  44. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby futures is this weekend. Will be tracking a few horses on this list for potential win/exacta betting, but the two in particular that look most appealing at their morning line odds are Honor A.P. and Three Technique. I am curious to see what Maxfield goes off at. I wouldn't touch him at 15-1 given all of the questions surrounding him, but among those horses that are in the 10-1 to 15-1 range, he is the one I could see being coldest on the board because of those question marks. If he drifts into the 20-1+ range, I'll have to start thinking about him. I think those are the only three I could see myself doing a win bet on unless a horse like Structor takes less money than I think he will. Could maybe talk myself into Enforceable if he drifts up from his morning line, but he's comfortably behind others for me at this point.

    1. Anneau d'Or (30-1)
    2. Authentic (15-1)
    3. Basin (30-1)
    4. Chance It (30-1)
    5. Dennis' Moment (12-1)
    6. Enforceable (30-1)
    7. Exaulted (50-1)
    8. Gold Street (30-1)
    9. Governeur Morris (30-1)
    10. Honor A.P. (30-1)
    11. Independence Hall (10-1)
    12. Max Player (20-1)
    13. Maxfield (15-1)
    14. Nadal (12-1)
    15. Palm Springs (50-1)
    16. Premier Star (50-1)
    17. Silver State (50-1)
    18. Storm the Court (30-1)
    19. Structor (30-1)
    20. Thousand Words (15-1)
    21. Three Technique (50-1)
    22. Tiz the Law (8-1)
    23. Violent City (50-1)
    24. All Other Horses (5-2)
     
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  45. Gallant Knight

    Donor
    Arkansas RazorbacksHouston AstrosAston Villa

    Tiz The Law was super impressive
     
  46. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Minnesota TimberwolvesMinnesota Golden GophersMinnesota VikingsMinnesota WildMiami Hurricanes

    Yeah, he deserves to be the favorite. Just don't have any interest in taking less than 10-1 this far out on a horse (frankly, I wouldn't take anything less than 20-1 unless it was my top choice, and even then I wouldn't realistically go beyond 15-1 - too much can go wrong between now and then), so anything I do with him would be limited to exactas.
     
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  47. Gallant Knight

    Donor
    Arkansas RazorbacksHouston AstrosAston Villa

    I just followed up on this. They said their accountant would have some sort of breakdown to me by Friday, and of coure that didn't happen. I have a feeling they're somehow stealing money from people.

    Since most people buy microshares for a few hundred, they won't care about getting a return, they just want to say they own a horse, go to the paddock and buy awin picutre if their horse wins
     
    texasraider likes this.
  48. beist

    beist Hyperbolist
    Donor

    I have similar concerns about the organization. I needed some documentation about my ownership for compliance purposes at work, and it took waaayyyy too long to get what I needed from them (I didn't even see any actual paperwork). Also they were supposed deposit $3.53 per share in our accounts for the race on 12/15, that still hasn't come and they haven't mentioned it at all since. Not to mention the fact that they overpaid on the race before that because of something that seemed like it should have been obvious.

    I am exactly the type of customer you outlined so I don't care enough to waste any time on it, but if they aren't scamming people it's just a clown show organization.
     
  49. Gallant Knight

    Donor
    Arkansas RazorbacksHouston AstrosAston Villa

    It really shouldn’t be that hard to keep track of basically 30 horses if that is legit your only job. If they aren’t stealing money I would be very surprised

    I’m guessing I’m one of the few people involved who own horses on their own, so their excuse of the trainer being behind on bills is hilarious
     
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