Official Horse Racing Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by mtsucalico85, Apr 9, 2015.

  1. Sammy Meatballs

    Sammy Meatballs DeBoer on the Floor
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    it’s definitely that asshole

    And they used peter miller out west
     
  2. Gallant Knight

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    100%

    he seems like such a douche. congrats on using your father in laws money and giving six figure horses to juice trainers.
     
  3. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Quick pick for the Rebel: Going to hope that there is enough pace from No Parole (5) to cause Nadal (1) some problems (and maybe Basin (3) as well), and will take one of the horses coming from further back. Three Technique (6) is the one I prefer and is my pick, though I do think Silver Prospector (4) has a major chance. Would pick Nadal third behind those two.
     
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  4. Gallant Knight

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    Won a race while I was at my rehearsal dinner tonight. Up to $60,000 in purses this year and I have some good horses that are debuting this summer
     

    Attached Files:

  5. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    Nice. Double congrats
     
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  6. Paddy Murphy

    Paddy Murphy Well-Known Member
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    Nadal just ran a monster race. He ran a blistering half at the front putting away the speed, managed the second half and then had the stamina to hold off late runners. Super fucking impressive, it was an eye catching performance.
     
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  7. Sammy Meatballs

    Sammy Meatballs DeBoer on the Floor
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    Yeah that was quite impressive.
     
  8. Daddy Rabbit

    Daddy Rabbit obviously silly and not productive
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  9. Daddy Rabbit

    Daddy Rabbit obviously silly and not productive
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    The Derby in the middle of opening weekend of college football.

    :winning:
     
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  10. Gallant Knight

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    When you have too many horses:

    AEF5D88A-9527-4A93-ACF1-A9D873074FBD.png
     
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  11. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Javier Castellano tested positive for Covid-19. I may have missed someone, but that is the first horse racing name I've seen get confirmed with the virus. His agent says he is asymptomatic.
     
  12. DuffandMuff

    DuffandMuff Well-Known Member
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    And this was going to be the first derby I’d ever attended :-(

    hope it still works out
     
  13. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    NBCSN showing live races for anyone looking for some sports entertainment tonight On until 8. Having a nice time watching some ponies, drinking and making dinner while quarantined
     
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  14. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    Bored out my mind with no gambling. So Im betting horses again.

    TB Race 2
    WPS 1
    Exacta Box 1,9,11
     
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  15. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    Gulfstream R4

    WPS 6
    Exacta Box 369
     
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  16. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    Anyone have some florida derby picks?
     
  17. DuffandMuff

    DuffandMuff Well-Known Member
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    Had an exacta box with the 2 horse in the Derby yesterday :smug:

    $1 exacta :feelsbadman:

    Had a buddy sending me picks from his high level capper friend. I cleared a couple hundred while the capper cleared $50K+. Same thing.
     
  18. DuffandMuff

    DuffandMuff Well-Known Member
    Tampa Bay LightningSan Diego Padres

    Update: watching the GP stream online and blowing through all my winnings from yesterday. I am not a handicapper.

    Food and booze expenses may be down during quarantine, but I'm losing it at the track.
     
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  19. b7

    b7 Well-Known Member
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    Got a twin spires account yesterday. Did real well. Getting killed today.
     
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  20. DuffandMuff

    DuffandMuff Well-Known Member
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    My dumb ass buddy loves texting me his picks and he somehow wins a surprising amount with having zero knowledge.

    Worst part of all...asshole isn’t even betting. Not laying down a single dime.
     
  21. DuffandMuff

    DuffandMuff Well-Known Member
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    He just hit in tampa. This dick. Maybe I should start tailing.
     
  22. Gallant Knight

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    New acquisition: Cinco Charlie / Castelli’s Ace. A half to $100,000 Texas futurity winner Galactica
    9FBEEC4E-CBEB-45DD-BE63-1239C9053495.jpeg
     
  23. Paddy Murphy

    Paddy Murphy Well-Known Member
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    should have named it DIS 3/17 102 or Stonks or something.
     
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  24. DuffandMuff

    DuffandMuff Well-Known Member
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    Back at it. Ignoring work while streaming GP and wasting money.
     
  25. b7

    b7 Well-Known Member
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    Getting Dq when you had the Tri sucks
     
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  26. Gallant Knight

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    Golden Lullabye runs in the first race at Will Rogers Downs today. 1:15 post. First time in for a tag since I claimed her in February 2019
     
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  27. DuffandMuff

    DuffandMuff Well-Known Member
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    Guess I have to put a little down to win
     
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  28. Gallant Knight

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    8D290699-03F9-4040-913F-31C53EB17852.jpeg C1A44145-12A9-40D0-82B6-A31E189BE216.jpeg It’s a girl! Full sibling to my colt Policy Limit who will be debuting at Lone Star this summer probably in the $75,000 texas stallion stakes
     
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  29. Gallant Knight

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    Yes the wine glasses at the Sherman household are the yearly Kentucky derby cups

    5434DDC2-523B-40DD-AA6F-2913D11D6CBE.jpeg
     
  30. Paddy Murphy

    Paddy Murphy Well-Known Member
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    Dancing Destroyer got claimed for 30k on Thursday. Waiting to see the math but should be a small net profit.
     
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  31. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    This Saturday at Oaklawn looks like our last big race day until at least later this summer. Will have two Arkansas Derby fields (both 11 horses), with the Oaklawn Handicap in between.

    Definitely feels like the second Arkansas Derby is the stronger and much deeper of the two fields - the first field looks like Charlatan, Gouvernour Morris, and a few horses who had accomplishments at 2YO but haven't done anything as 3YO's (Anneau d'Or, Basin, Wrecking Crew (if you want to be generous)). Only one horse in this field has even hit the board in a graded stakes in 2020 (Basin a distant 3rd in the Rebel). Plus there doesn't look like much speed beyond Charlatan and Shooters Shoot, and Charlatan has already defeated Shooters Shoot.

    Meanwhile, the second field has Nadal, King Guillermo, Wells Bayou, and Silver Prospector - all of whom have won graded stakes this year. Plus throw in Storm the Court - while you could say he also has been a disappointment in 2020, I would at least take his 3rd place finish in the San Felipe over any of the other 3YO disappointments in the first field. Even the second tier horses like Farmington Road and Fast Enough would fit right in with any horse in the first Arkansas Derby outside of maybe Charlatan. Should be a much more contentious pace as well.
     
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  32. matadorjim

    matadorjim Well-Known Member
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    I was surprised by how much money Charlatan took in the last derby future pool.
     
  33. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I wasn't. Seen a lot of people making the "Charlatan is this year's version of Justify" case, plus his 106 and 105 Beyers are the only two 3YO performances this year that exceeded 100 (Tiz The Law did hit 100). Tiz The Law would be (and still is) my personal favorite, but I get the case behind Charlatan.

    I'm not necessarily convinced that he is a mile and a quarter horse at this stage, but I can't rule it out either. I don't love Speightstown horses at the longer distances, but he's at least gotten a couple distance horses, and his dam Authenticity had success going longer. Personally, if I had to pick one Baffert horse, it would still be Nadal.

    The horse that surprised me the most for how much money he took in the last future pool was Maxfield. I get that the delay in the Derby probably benefits him the most of any horse, and I loved him as a 2YO - he was my number 1 horse coming into January for a reason. However, he still has yet to race since last October, and even within the past month or two, he has had a couple interruptions in his work tab. And while I really liked his Breeders Futurity win, it wasn't like it was a abnormally fast race that makes him a standout even if he didn't improve. Yet he was still the third choice at 9-1 behind Charlatan and Tiz The Law?
     
  34. texasraider

    texasraider thanks
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    how'd the math work out?
     
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  35. Gallant Knight

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    Not great.

    Will not make that mistake again
     
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  36. Irish226

    Irish226 Well-Known Member
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    Surprised there hasn’t been more horse betting traffic here or on the gambling board. Been putting a few coins in play the last couple weekends.
     
  37. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Between a busy work weekend and the draft, I had missed this...but my boy is back!

    Pretty good field as well - while it was an allowance race, every horse but one in the field was Graded Stakes placed, and the only horse who wasn't (Soldado) was actually the post time favorite.
     
    #3238 mtsucalico85, Apr 27, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2020
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  38. DuffandMuff

    DuffandMuff Well-Known Member
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    I've been betting Fri-Sun for the past month or so. Need some kind of vice.
     
  39. Gallant Knight

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    Bloodstock guy is going to look at some two year olds tomorrow. Might buy 1-2

    Pm if interested in buying a %
     
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  40. Gallant Knight

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    This is the filly I’m looking at. Jimmy Creed out of a Tizmow mare.

    Probably in the $35k range. Third dam is a blue hen and second dam is from same family as Mr. Money.
    FBB85AF2-C3CC-4B72-A40D-FB3C0BF996D5.jpeg 25B3A7B4-B59C-4B86-9DE3-38B2B180FBD2.png
     
  41. Gallant Knight

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    Golden Lullabye just won. nice way to end April
     
  42. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I'm starting to handicap the Oaklawn card for tomorrow, and the Oaklawn Handicap looks like an absolute war. That's a spread race if there ever was one.
     
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  43. DuffandMuff

    DuffandMuff Well-Known Member
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    My buddy's client is a big time capper in San Diego. I just sit on the sidelines hoping for a text with all the analytics so I can blindly enter bets. Had a pretty nice hit in the Apple Blossom a few weeks ago.
     
  44. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    My thoughts for the stakes races at Oaklawn tomorrow, plus my initial late pick 4 play:

    Race 11: Arkansas Derby (1st Division):

    Unless he just doesn’t get the distance, I have a hard time seeing Charlatan lose in this spot. With the scratch of Shooters Shoot, there just isn’t any speed signed up on paper to give him a legitimate challenge. Even if he regresses, others would still need to jump up in a big way to beat him. Gouverneur Morris seems like a solid second option for me – I definitely prefer him to the Anneau d’Or, Wrecking Crew, and Basin group of horses – though I still have questions to how good he really is. I expected a little better showing from his Florida Derby. Two price horses that I want to mix in underneath are Winning Impression (9) and Crypto Cast (10). Getting one of those two in 2nd/3rd is probably the way to try and make money here.

    Arkansas Derby (1st Division) selections:
    1. Charlatan (1) 1-1
    2. Gouverneur Morris (4) 9-2
    3. Winning Impression (9) 15-1
    4. Crypto Cast (10) 20-1

    Race 12: Oaklawn Handicap:

    Really curious to see how this race gets bet. Combatant is the morning line favorite based off of his Santa Anita Handicap win, but I feel like Tacitus ends up being the post time favorite. Tacitus may be the most talented horse in the field, but he’s also one that just always seems to find someone better. He’s not a horse I’d want to take at a short price. That said, even though he isn’t in my top four selections, I probably think he is the most likely horse to hit the board in the field. If I had to pick a most likely winner, I would probably say it would be Mr. Freeze – a horse I think is best at a mile but has run credible races at 1 1/8 miles as well. I do expect him to get challenged by Warrior’s Charge on the front end, which could soften him up a bit. I’m a bit interested in Trophy Chaser at a price, as I thought his win in the Challenger last time out was a strong effort, though he does have to transfer his form out of the state of Florida. Further down the list for me on horses that are capable of running a big race, but questions whether they will actually do it, are Tax and Improbable (if you still are a believer in Improbable, I do think he took a small step in the right direction last time out, even if he didn’t win, and you will easily get the best price on him in his career). All that said, my tepid top selection will be By My Standards. After a Kentucky Derby that did not go his way, he took off the rest of 2019, and in 2020, has two easy wins and I thought looked good doing it. He did have favorable pace scenarios, and this is a much tougher field, but I could imagine a trip with him setting just off the pace and letting Mr. Freeze/Warrior’s Charge duel it out, and then get the jump on the rest of the field moving into the stretch. I do expect him to drift upwards from his morning line price, as horses like Tacitus and Mr. Freeze should take more money. Regarding betting this race, I’m not going to fool around with exotics – I think there are just too many options for me. I would rather just pick one horse and hope to get them home. In multi-race wagers, though, this is absolutely a spread – I may go as deep as 7 horses with the pick 4.

    Oaklawn Handicap selections:
    1. By My Standards (12) 9-2
    2. Mr. Freeze (4) 6-1
    3. Combatant (7) 4-1
    4. Trophy Chaser (2) 12-1

    Race 13: Arkansas Derby (2nd Division):

    Definitely the deeper of the two fields, and this all starts with the three favorites – Nadal, King Guillermo, and Wells Bayou. All three of them should be forwardly placed and should ensure a speedy pace. Of the trio, the one I am most against is Wells Bayou, as I don’t think he is as naturally quick as a horse like Nadal, and I think he’ll end up having to do a lot of dirty work which will soften himself up. I also don’t think he has the same upside as the other two favorites. I will try to beat him completely. King Guillermo has to prove that his Tampa Bay Derby wasn’t a fluke, but I think for the most part he is legit. He has run some decent races on the turf – just hadn’t shown in on dirt until last time out. Both horses are must uses for me, but I will take a small shot on top with Silver Prospector. He certainly isn’t the most reliable horse, but his race in the Southwest is good enough to win this race. His Rebel looks pretty poor on paper, but I don’t think he got all that great of a trip, as he moved up during the middle of the race – the fastest part of the race – and that tired him out down the stretch. With a better timed move, I think he’s in this. I also think Farmington Road absolutely has a shot to win. He needs a pace meltdown for that to happen, as he has no early speed whatsoever, but I don’t think that is out of the realm of possibility. I’ll be against Storm the Court from a win standpoint, but he can hit the board, and Finnick the Fierce may also be a back of the exotics type of horse. But I’ll largely go with the top four I have.

    Arkansas Derby (2nd Division) selections:
    1. Silver Prospector (7) 10-1
    2. Nadal (5) 5-2
    3. King Guillermo (4) 3-1
    4. Farmington Road (10) 12-1
    Pick 4 play:
    Race 11: 1
    Race 12: 2, 4, 7, 12, 9, 11, 14
    Race 13: 4, 5, 7, 10
    Race 14: 5, 14

    The red horses in Race 12 are the horses I would look at cutting if you don't want to go 7 deep in a single race. Given that I'm singling Charlatan and going fairly short in the final leg (an allowance race), I'll probably use all 7 horses, but will give more weight to the first four listed.
     
  45. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I'll be in here following along with the Oaklawn card today. Yesterday, Oaklawn seemed relatively speed friendly, so we will see if that carries forward into today.

    Sure enough, in the first race, the horse I was looking at betting (the 10 horse) got scratched. Timely Tradition (1) is the favorite, and is my most likely winner. I am a little interested in Jaccat (11) at a little bit of a price. Was certainly a poor effort last time out, but maybe she just didn't take to the wet track? Her race two back puts her right in the mix.

    At the current price of 9-1, I'll take a shot with Jaccat, and will also do an exacta with her and Timely Tradition
     
    #3247 mtsucalico85, May 2, 2020
    Last edited: May 2, 2020
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  46. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    In Race 2, Scolding (6) is being heavily bet in her debut race, and I understand why. She's been working out well leading up to this race, and Asmussen is a decent first time out trainer. I don't know if I want to take close to even money on her, though. Will definitely use her, but if I am going to bet anyone to win, I'll try to go with Bonus Baby (10). Englehart does well with first time starters, and I do see signs of promise in her works as well. If there is one concern, her better works on paper look to be on days with a little moisture on the track. Still, at something like 9-1, I'll take a shot with Bonus Baby.
     
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  47. Gallant Knight

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    I bet both the favorites and they were both free money
     
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  48. Gallant Knight

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    4 in the next one