Official Horse Racing Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by mtsucalico85, Apr 9, 2015.

  1. b7

    b7 Well-Known Member
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    What is anyone’s thoughts on Gamine vs Swiss Skydiver
     
  2. Gallant Knight

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    Gamine crushes
     
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  3. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Gamine is more talented, and that isn't really a debate for me.

    Playing Devil's advocate, however, are we certain that Gamine will produce the same kind of efforts at two turns? Gamine has only run once around two turns, and she was life and death to finish ahead of Speech (I believe by about a neck) in that 1 1/16 mile Oaklawn allowance race in which Gamine ultimately was DQ'd. Speech in the very next race, the 1 1/16 mile Santa Anita Oaks, was handled easily by Swiss Skydiver (about a four length victory). Since that allowance race, Gamine has ran in a one turn mile (Acorn) and at 7 furlongs (Test). I find it interesting that a sharp trainer like Baffert wouldn't go longer with her if he was confident that she'd excel at races going 9 furlongs. The Test and Acorn are big races for 3YO fillies, so it could be just as simple as that, but there were other Grade 1 opportunities he could have taken a chance with her (such as the Coaching Club American Oaks).
     
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  4. Gallant Knight

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    Sounds like we are going to the Iroquois stakes on derby day. Win and you’re in for the breeders cup juvenile
     
  5. Gallant Knight

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    herbs love and policy limit are both going through the auction ring in about an hour.

    can stream here if anyone is interested. hips 10 and 24

    http://www.ttasales.com/
     
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  6. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    why are you selling policy limit? thought you were real excited about that horse?
     
  7. b7

    b7 Well-Known Member
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    Just watched policy limit. What were you aiming for?
     
  8. Gallant Knight

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    Bought for 7,500 so figured if we could sell for a decent amount not a bad idea to

    They stopped right at his reserve at 39,000

    someone’s about to offer us $35,000 so will need to decide if I want to do that
     
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  9. Gallant Knight

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    50

    a little disappointed honestly
     
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  10. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    We've made it to Derby week. Here is the field for the Oaks.

     
  11. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    how much is Gallant Knight putting on gamine?
     
  12. Gallant Knight

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    Depends but I like her a lot
     
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  13. southlick

    southlick "Better Than You"
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  14. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    That's a shame. With him out, the only horse I could make an argument for beating Tiz the Law (unless he regresses in a significant way) would be Honor A.P.

    On that note, I can't wait to see how my future exacta box of Tiz the Law-Honor A.P. that I made back in February will let me down on Saturday.
     
  15. b7

    b7 Well-Known Member
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    After the Belmont I bet my buddy 100 that tiz would go off as even or better for the derby. Liking it right now.
     
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  16. Gallant Knight

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    He will be 3-5 and should be 1-9 unless he’s on the rail
     
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  17. b7

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    hypothetical - what does Nadal and Charlton do in the 3 year old campaign if healthy. Do you think they could beat Tiz The Law?
     
  18. Gallant Knight

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    I think they would certainly be ahead of anyone else in the group. Authentic was bafferts like 5th or 6th best of the two year olds he got. Like I’m not sure he could’ve beaten Bast
     
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  19. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I know at least one or two of the Authentic/Thousand Words/King Guillermo group end up going off at less than 10-1, but I legit think Tiz the Law and Honor A.P. are the only horses that should be below that mark.

    I'd be surprised if he wasn't 3-5 or 4-5. Can't see him going any lower than that because of the large field and that the Derby always attracts some money for people looking for the next Mine That Bird, though those type of bets will probably be lower than usual this year.
     
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  20. b7

    b7 Well-Known Member
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    i think because it’s so late in the season and already seeing the Belmont there will be a lot less action on the longer odds. That’s the main reason I bet my buddy on it.

    I can see Honor AP at 8-1 and no one else better than 10-1
     
  21. Gallant Knight

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    I doubt I’ll bet the derby

    will play gamine in the oaks and therideofalifetime in the Iroquois
     
  22. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Nadal would have been a threat - he would likely be right with Honor A.P. for me. I'm a little more skeptical of Charlatan at the distance, but I'd still prefer him to those other Baffert horses.

    I certainly get the feeling I'm higher on Honor A.P. than most people are, even in this thread. People seem to be down on him after his Shared Belief, in a race that he wasn't cranked up for and was shorter than what I think he would prefer. Shirreffs is great at setting a target, and getting that horse to peak on that day. Tiz the Law deserves to be a strong favorite, but Honor A.P. going off at around 3-1 or 4-1 I think is fair value. I won't be betting Honor A.P. to win at those odds this Saturday, but that is because I already have him locked in at 25-1 from my futures bet.

    Still working out how I'll attack the race, but my current idea is to key those two in a super and try to get some price horses underneath.
     
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  23. b7

    b7 Well-Known Member
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    I will bet small on Tiz in hopes of betting on a triple crown winner in all 3 races similar to American Pharoah.

    I didn’t bet Justify.
     
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  24. Gallant Knight

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    Betting justify was fun
     
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  25. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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  26. matadorjim

    matadorjim Well-Known Member
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    That's a crazy draw. All the speed to the outside.
     
  27. Gallant Knight

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    did anyone here buy a share in authentic from myracehorse? i'm seriously considering filing a class action against them and spendthrift
     
  28. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Something to watch over the next day or two:

     
  29. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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  30. 941Gator

    941Gator TMB's resident beach bum
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  31. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Not a ranking of the horses. The 1 signifies Finnick the Fierce's post position.
     
  32. DuffandMuff

    DuffandMuff Well-Known Member
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    Referred my gf to TwinSpires so I could get a $50 bonus and she could too. I think TwinSpires messed up and we each got $100. I'll take it.
     
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  33. DuffandMuff

    DuffandMuff Well-Known Member
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    And Finnick was just scratched this morning.
     
  34. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Kentucky Oaks undercard is pretty underwelming, and I probably won't be playing a whole lot today. Not looking to beat Sharing in this next race.

    In the Alysheba (Race 10), I like By My Standards (6), and may try to connect him in an exacta with Silver Dust (1) and Owendale (3). Trying to beat McKinzie

    In the La Troienne (Race 11), I'm a little interested taking a shot with Horologist (1) to upset Monomoy Girl, though Monomoy Girl is clearly the most likely winner.

    For the Kentucky Oaks (Race 12), I do think Gamine (5) is the most likely winner, and if any horse wins by 5+ length, it will be her. I still have just enough questions about her going this distance, though, where I don't want to take her at less than even money. I do prefer her to Swiss Skydiver (1) among the two big favorites - I'm a little concerned at the quick turnaround for her, and given how much she has run this year (which I commend her and her connections for), I can't help but question if at some point she takes a step back. One other concern - both Gamine and Swiss Skydiver I could see going at each other and trying to turn it into a match race, and if that happens, Speech (4) can take advantage of it and become the spoiler. Speech has finished behind both of these horses (though Gamine only finished ahead of her by a neck), but she took a nice step forward in the Ashland, and that race is good enough to put her in contention. I would want every bit of that 5-1 morning line to bet her to win. I will be more interested in doing some exactas with her and Gamine.

    Kentucky Oaks picks:
    1. Speech (4) 5-1
    2. Gamine (5) Even
    3. Swiss Skydiver (1) 8-5
    4. Shedaresthedevil (7) 20-1
     
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  35. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I guess I should have gone bigger in the Alysheba and gone for the trifecta instead of just the exacta.
     
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  36. b7

    b7 Well-Known Member
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    Been playing Kentucky and Saratoga all day sitting on the beach. Been awesome.
     
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  37. b7

    b7 Well-Known Member
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    I hit exacta and win place for the oaks. pretty pumped.
     
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  38. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Not that it was a bad performance, but definitely some more evidence on the "Gamine is a 1-turn horse" take.

    Hope someone here just decided to box the four horses I listed, because I sure as hell didn't.
     
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  39. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    I read your post last minute and tri-boxed those four so I appreciate the post for sure.
     
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  40. Kinghorn817

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    Keyed Gamine :/
     
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  41. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Pretty good day for Matt Bernier.
     
  42. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Quick picks for the undercard. Hard to find longer priced horses that I like. Turf Classic looks like the best betting race of the group.

    Race 8: American Turf
    1. Field Pass (4) 2-1
    2. Smooth Like Strait (5) 8-5
    3. American Butterfly (2) 12-1

    Race 9: Pat Day Mile
    1. Rushie (9) 4-1
    2. Echo Town (2) 7-2
    3. Tap It to Win (6) 4-1

    Race 10: Iroquois
    1. Therideofalifetime (10) 7-5
    2. Belofonte (6) 20-1
    3. Pico d’Oro (7) 5-1

    Race 11: Churchill Distaff Turf Mile
    1. Newspaperofrecord (4) 4-5
    2. La Signare (7) 10-1
    3. Daddy Is a Legend (2) 6-1

    Race 12: Derby City Distaff
    1. Cece (10) 3-1
    2. Serengeti Empress (8) 9-5
    3. Sally’s Curlin (6) 12-1

    Race 13: Turf Classic
    1. Sacred Life (8) 6-1
    2. Somelikeithotbrown (9) 8-1
    3. Spectacular Gem (10) 10-1
     
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  43. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Race 14: Kentucky Derby. My horse-by-horse thoughts are in the spoiler. The odds I used are the current odds as of this evening, not the morning line odds.
    1. Finnick the Fierce - SCR
    2. Max Player – 15-1: He’s been well beaten by Tiz the Law the past two races, but he’s still put in good efforts each time, and has improved with each race. He’s been training well coming into the race. I have a tough time seeing him turn the tables on Tiz the Law, but he’s one of the more likely candidates to fill out the bottom of the exotics to me.
    3. Enforceable – 22-1: He would benefit from a fast pace, and while I don’t think we get a super fast pace, it will be honest enough to give him a chance to make one run. He’s certainly not brilliant, and needs to take a step up to be a contender, but I have less questions about the distance with him than many others, and think he’ll pick up a few horses down the stretch. Exotics contender.
    4. Storm the Court – 22-1: Last year’s 2YO champ just hasn’t improved at all this year, and his best effort in my view for this year was his one turf race. Not using.
    5. Major Fed – 27-1: Another horse that will be taken well back and will make one run, though I prefer others over him with that running style in this race. Not using.
    6. King Guillermo - SCR
    7. Money Moves – 15-1: It’s not often you get a horse making their stakes debut in the Kentucky Derby, but here we are. He was a solid 2nd last time out in an allowance race against older horses, and his numbers certainly fit in well with those horses outside of the top group. Given that the Jim Dandy is also this weekend, it’s certainly a sign of confidence in the horse to send him here. However, I also think it is telling that Pletcher is remaining at Saratoga and won’t be at the Derby. There’s enough upside in him to use him in exotics, but don’t view him as a likely upsetter.
    8. South Bend – 32-1: He’s another horse that has little early speed and will try to pick up tiring horses late. That’s what he did in the Travers, and it managed to get him a 4th place finish. He’s not a likely board hitter, but there are worse long shots to take a shot with than him, and I’ll use him a little bit underneath.
    9. Mr. Big News – 43-1: Was beaten by double digit lengths last time out in the Blue Grass, yet that was still a lifetime high Beyer for him. He just appears to be a cut below the majority of this field. Not using.
    10. Thousand Words – 9-1: One of the tougher calls for me. His Shared Belief was certainly a step forward, but he also had absolutely everything his own way in that race, and he had been a major disappointment in his races before that one this year. I do like his chances to get the distance better than the other Baffert, so if I were to use a Baffert, he would be the one. But I will be using him very defensively, and ultimately is a horse I’ll try to beat.
    11. Necker Island – 42-1: He hasn’t run a race yet that would be good enough to hit the board. He’s a tough horse to recommend using. That being said, he’s a horse I’ve always liked (and been disappointed by) and may end up being the longest shot on the board. There are other horses in this race that I’m okay beating me, but with my history with this horse, there is no way I am letting him be the one that gets me beat. I’m using defensively in exotics, just for my sanity more than any other reason, but if there is a horse to cut among the ones I am using, it would be him.
    12. Sole Volante – 22-1: His Belmont was disappointing, but every other dirt race he’s had this year has been rock solid, and you can make the argument that he ran on too short of rest in the Belmont. I do find it odd that all of his works in the lead up to the Derby have been on turf, though he has been working well. I’ll use him underneath, though I wonder if his future will ultimately end up back on turf.
    13. Attachment Rate – 43-1: He’s shown some real improvement his past couple of starts, and his 2nd place finish to Art Collector last time out I think is even better than it looks on paper, as he didn’t have the easiest of trips that day. His two best Beyer figures are his two longest races, so distance doesn’t appear to be a hindrance, and I think he should sit a pretty good trip – he has some tactical speed, but I don’t expect him to be among the pace setters, but at the same time will get the jump on some of the late running horses. I don’t see him as a likely winner, but at a big price, I want to use him in a major way underneath.
    14. Winning Impression – 43-1: Dallas Stewart has had large prices get in the number in the past, but I have a hard time recommending using a horse that has a career best Beyer of 82. Not using.
    15. Ny Traffic – 16-1: He’s a game horse, and his runner up in the Haskell makes him one of the few horses that has received a 100+ Beyer. That said, I do think it was just as much Authentic coming back to him as it was him getting to Authentic. I don’t love the increased distance for him. Similar to Thousand Words, I’ll use him defensively underneath, but ideally I’d like to beat him.
    16. Honor A.P. – 8-1: The only horse I can really make a sound argument to beat Tiz the Law. I fully expect him to run the best race of his life in the Derby. Will that be enough to overtake Tiz the Law? We’ll see. Ultimately, I’m picking him 2nd, but he is a win contender for me. And ultimately, he’s the horse I’ll be cheering for, as financially it will be better for me.
    17. Tiz the Law – 6-5: At the end of the day, I just have a tough time not putting him on top, as he has done everything you want to see out of a 3YO colt this year. I wouldn’t single him, as I would include Honor A.P. as well, but I would definitely weigh things in his favor.
    18. Authentic – 9-1: You can’t deny the talent, but he has always been a bit immature when running and finishing his races, and I don’t like the added distance for him. Of the horses who will get bet, he’s the one I want the least part of. Not using.

    Kentucky Derby selections:
    1. Tiz the Law (17) 6-5
    2. Honor A.P. (16) 8-1
    3. Attachment Rate (13) 43-1
    4. Max Player (2) 15-1

    Win contenders: 16, 17
    Exotics key: 13
    Use in exotics: 2, 3, 7, 12
    Defensively use in exotics: 8, 10, 11, 15
    Not using: 4, 5, 9, 14, 18

    My betting strategy will largely be to target the superfecta, with Tiz the Law, Honor A.P., and Attachment Rate being locked in to 3 of the 4 spots (only Tiz the Law and Honor A.P. will be used on top). Will go with higher weighting on the supers that have Tiz the Law winning, and will also have higher weighting on the horses in my “use in exotics group” compared to the “defensively use in exotics” group.
     
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  44. Gallant Knight

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    Tizthe Law at 6-5 is amazing value
     
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  45. mal630

    mal630 Well-Known Member
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    Here are my dumb bets cheating off of everyone else. I have Tiz the Law -125 and took attachment rate to top 3 on my bookmaker site at +850.

    . 50 Trifecta Box (insurance if Tiz the law doesnt win)
    17, 16, 13
    17, 16, 2
    17, 2, 13

    $2 Tri
    17, 13, 2
    17, 16, 13
    17, 16, 2
    17, 2, 13
    17, 2, 16
    17, 13, 16

    $1 super

    12 different bets centered around 17 winning with 13, 16, 2, 12 and 7 in the mix

    $2 quinellas
    17, 16
    17, 13
    17, 2
    17, 13

    $50 invested on stuff at a track
     
    #3445 mal630, Sep 5, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2020
  46. Tobias

    Tobias dan “the man qb1” jones fan account
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    finnick the fierce has a great name should i bet him
     
  47. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    He's scratched. Vets were concerned about the way he was moving on the track, so they decided to hold him out. He may be back for the Preakness.
     
  48. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I'd expect him to come down a little bit, but the price of the favorites always seem to be a little inflated in the Derby because you get more of the general public betting on the horses name, post position number, etc. There really isn't a reason for horses like Storm the Court to be 22-1, Major Fed to be 27-1, or Necker Island/Winning Impression/Mr. Big News to be in that 42-1 to 43-1 range.

    The projected odds based on the Oaks-Derby double look a lot more realistic to me as to what the odds should be, but I don't think it will fully get there.
     
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  49. Gaknight

    Gaknight Trae Young’s #1 fan, LaMelo Stan
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    Well he’s scratched so I wouldn’t recommend that
     
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  50. Gallant Knight

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    You’ll get your money back so better than if he was actively running
     
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