Official Horse Racing Thread

Today's thoughts, will spoiler because it is long:

Spoiler

Race 4: Filly and Mare Sprint – As brilliant as she is, I’m going to try and beat Gamine (2) in this spot. I like the cut back in distance for her, but my big concern with her is she has always been on the lead, and that won’t happen with Serengeti Empress (7). Of the two favorites, I do prefer Serengeti Empress, and she is the one horse with early speed I want, but I want to use a couple horses coming off of the pace as well, and that is Speech (1) and Bell’s the One (9). I liked Speech in the Oaks, but she had a troubled trip, and it is possible that 9 furlongs was a bit too far for her. Bell’s the One, meanwhile, nosed out Serengeti Empress last time out after benefiting from a fast pace. I prefer Speech of the two, but like both at decent prices.

Filly and Mare Sprint selections:
1. Serengeti Empress (7) 3-1
2. Speech (1) 6-1
3. Bell’s the One (9) 6-1

Race 5: Turf Sprint – Once again, not my strength, but I’ll go three deep in here. I liked Oleksandra’s (8) run in the Jaipur, and I think there is enough pace to help set up her late kick, so she will be my top pick, especially since she’ll be a better price than the other two I will use. The other two horses are Leinster (7) and Imprimis (3), who figure to be among the favorites.

Turf Sprint selections:
1. Oleksandra (8) 12-1
2. Leinster (7) 4-1
3. Imprimis (3) 4-1

Race 6: Dirt Mile – The decision you have to make is whether or not you trust Knicks Go (5). He was a bit of a whipping boy before switching over to Brad Cox, but has won his last two starts, and completely demolished an allowance field last time out. If he runs that race back, he wins. He needs to prove it against better competition, but I think it seems real to me, and I will pick him on top. If you don’t buy the Knicks Go improvement, then Complexity (10) seems like the top option to me off of his win in the Kelso. A couple price horses I could use underneath are Rushie (7) and Silver Dust (3).

Dirt Mile selections:
1. Knicks Go (5) 7-2
2. Complexity (10) 2-1
3. Rushie (7) 20-1

Race 7: Filly and Mare Turf – I want the top two out of the Diana in this spot, and I will go with Mean Mary (4) to flip the result on Rushing Fall (6). I just prefer her at the distance more than I do Rushing Fall, even though I do believe Rushing Fall is the best horse in the field. I’m against Sistercharlie (2), who looks like she has taken a step back this season. I don’t love the Euros in this spot, but if I had to choose one, it would be Cayenne Pepper (14), despite the outside draw. But for the most part, it will be the top two for me.

Filly and Mare Turf selections:
1. Mean Mary (4) 7-2
2. Rushing Fall (6) 5-2
3. Cayenne Pepper (14) 8-1

Race 8: Sprint – Vekoma would have been a single for me had he not scratched, as I’m just not terribly impressed with the others in the field. I’m against Yaupon (10), who is one of the morning line favorites. He’s undefeated and should get a good trip, but hasn’t faced anyone, and his best performance was on a wet track. He really doesn’t hold any sort of speed figure edge, either. Of the two favorites, I prefer C Z Rocket (2), who has been as consistent as anyone this year, but I landed ultimately on Diamond Oops (8), who won the local prep in the Phoenix and his best is faster than any other horse’s best from a speed figure perspective when he’s in good form. He’s in good form now, so he goes on top for me. Don’t really love anyone else outside of the top two – I’ll go with Frank’s Rockette (6) in third, but not sure I’ll do much of anything in this race beyond the top two.

Sprint selections:
1. Diamond Oops (8) 8-1
2. C Z Rocket (2) 7-2
3. Frank’s Rockette (6) 10-1

Race 9: Mile – This is one of the more fascinating races on the card, and if you are looking for a price, this may be the spot I would target. I really like the group of Euros in this field, and don’t like the Americans, so my play will be entirely around the Euro horses. Siskin (4) will be my top pick, as of the Euro horses, he may be most suited to the American style of turf race (firmer ground, running style, etc.), even if he may not be the most talented. Kameko (2) looks logical in this spot, and may be the likeliest winner in the field, so he’s a must use for me. Lope y Fernandez (3), at a big price, is another horse I want to use, as his record would look much more appealing if he hadn’t been stuck behind horses like Pinatubo. Safe Voyage (6) and One Master (9) are usable as well. The one Euro who will have to beat me is Circus Maximus (1), who I don’t think is in good form right now. If he bounces back, he can win this race, but I’m betting against it.

Mile selections:
1. Siskin (4) 15-1
2. Kameko (2) 6-1
3. Lope y Fernandez (3) 30-1

Race 10: Distaff – Set up to be a two horse race between Swiss Skydiver (5) and Monomoy Girl (10), and I like Monomoy Girl of the two here. The Breeders Cup has been the target all year for Monomoy Girl, while Swiss Skydiver was targeting races like the Kentucky Oaks and ultimately the Preakness. I think this would just be the cherry on top for Swiss Skydiver, while this is the whole prize for Monomoy Girl. Since I’m going to spread in other races in the pick 4, I need to make a call somewhere, and this will be it. I’m singling her. The one horse beyond the top two I have my eye on a little bit in exotics is Harvest Moon (2), who has emerged as the top 3YO filly on the west coast late this year.

Distaff selections:
1. Monomoy Girl (10) 8-5
2. Swiss Skydiver (5) 2-1
3. Harvest Moon (2) 12-1

Race 11: Turf – Another turf race where the group of Euros look much more appealing than the Americans. Tarnawa (3) is my pick among that group. She is undefeated this year, and I thought her best performance was in the 12 furlong Prix Vermeille, which was on a firm ground. If she is anywhere near her morning line, she is the best win bet for me on the card. I do think she will end up going off shorter, though. Magical (2) and Mogul (10) are the other Euros that have a major shot, with Magical the more trustworthy of the two. Lord North (6) isn’t impossible, either, but he has to take a major step forward from his last race, so he will have to meet me. Channel Maker (9) is the best American hope, but he’s gotten two good setups in his last two races, and none of the horses he was facing are on the level of the top Euros.

Turf selections:
1. Tarnawa (3) 6-1
2. Magical (2) 5-2
3. Mogul (10) 4-1

Race 12: Classic – Fantastic field, and one where I could make a case for every horse outside of Tacitus (1), Title Ready (5), and Higher Power (6) to win. The one horse I am completely against is Maximum Security (10), who just doesn’t look like the same horse he was before and up to the Saudi Cup. But that still leaves me with six horses I want to use in some fashion – Tiz the Law (2), By My Standards (3), Tom’s d’Etat (4), Global Campaign (7), Improbable (8), and Authentic (9). I narrowly lean towards Tiz the Law from that group – my one concern with him is trip, as he runs best outside of horses and he drew inside. But I prefer him among the three year olds, as I thought he had a less favorable trip than Authentic did in the Derby and think he can turn the table on him. He’s also ran best when he’s had more time off in between races, which he didn’t have in the Derby. Improbable has been the most consistent horse in the field this year, and is probably likeliest of hitting the board. By My Standards and Global Campaign are two personal favorites of mine, though they aren’t the likeliest of winners, I expect both to outrun their odds. Tom’s d’Etat and Authentic are the two I would be most ‘against’ of those six, but neither winning would stun me. But this is a lot of racing in a short amount of time for Authentic, while with Tom’s d’Etat, I think he had the run of the race in the Foster against By My Standards in the Foster (though I still think he was best), which I think makes him look better than he is. If you are willing to spread and go six deep, though, they should be used. In a single race standpoint, though, my plan would be to go with a win bet on Tiz the Law if he stays 3-1 or better, while messing around with By My Standards and Global Campaign in exotics.

Classic selections:
1. Tiz the Law (2) 3-1
2. Improbable (8) 5-2
3. By My Standards (3) 10-1
4. Global Campaign (7) 20-1

 

More than okay with taking 4-1 or 9/2 for Mean Mary.

 

Hope you had something on Whitmore, Cza

 

Still good to see him get a Breeders Cup win, even if he was nowhere on my tickets.

 

I use every Euro but two, and of course those two Euros run 1-2.

 

Just going to mess around with Global Campaign and By My Standards in exotics and try and get one of them in the exacta.