And harness season is back! No 2 or 3 year olds this year, didn't feel like jumping in until COVID shit was cleared up so hit the brakes on a few potentials. So I guess it's time to fall in love with a derby prep horse who only does one thing well and eventually will lose me thousands in May. This is the way. mtsucalico85 , we are going to hit that fucking super this year and not in a bad American Pharoah/Dortmund/Firing Line/Frosted kind of way.
I certainly haven't found our Normandy Invasion yet. Just have had trouble finding horses I love. Hopefully the San Felipe today changes that. Should be the best prep race of the year to date. One of the two Bafferts probably takes the race, but Roman Centurian might have the best shot to become the 2021 Normandy Invasion for me. I do think he wants longer than this, though, which is why I'd prefer Medina Spirit or Life is Good to win. Probably would take Medina Spirit as the pick today.
I got two lab puppies last September and I wish one of them would have been born a horse. I might have won a triple crown with him, dude is a rocket all day long. Small for his size, completely black and runs kind of funny but just dusts all of them at the dog park. My little Shared Belief pup.
Lousy betting race. Easy exacta, but that finished basically in odds order. Life is Good was easily the class of that field. Probably won't catch that breather in the backstretch he had today at Churchill, but was pretty impressive.
Life is Good reminds me so much of Authentic. Clearly the talent is there, but in early races, both did things during the early part of their 3YO year that I look at and gave me some skepticism. With Authentic, he was green in his early races (much like Life is Good was today when he was running down the center of the track down the stretch) and had the race in the Haskell where Ny Traffic was eating into his lead with each stride but couldn't quite get to him by the wire (similar to Life is Good in his last race against Medina Spirit). Authentic was able to put it all together when it mattered last year, and I don't really have much of a reason to think Life is Good can't do that either. He has the most pure talent of any of the 3YO's to date. But I do think he needs to mature a bit more - he isn't a finished product yet, as brilliant as he looked today.
The 100 point races start up this weekend, so I figured I'd bring up my current top 10 Derby contenders. Tier 1: 1. Life Is Good (Baffert) Tier 2: 2. Concert Tour (Baffert) 3. Mandaloun (Cox) 4. Essential Quality (Cox) 5. Risk Taking (Brown) Tier 3: 6. Proxy (Stidham) 7. Medina Spirit (Baffert) 8. Midnight Bourbon (Asmussen) Tier 4: 9. Greatest Honour (McGaughey) 10. Roman Centurian (Callaghan) HM's also in Tier 4 (in no particular order): Dream Shake, Collaborate, Prevalence, Caddo River, Helium Hard not to have Life Is Good a cut above every one else based off of his San Felipe. But I think the crop definitely looks better now than I was expecting it to look coming into the season. The Louisiana trio of Mandaloun/Proxy/Midnight Bourbon in particular have grown on me, and I realized I underrated Essential Quality a bit coming into this year. I think my hottest takes are having Risk Taking in my 2nd tier while Greatest Honour is only at the top of my 4th tier. I just haven't been impressed with the Gulfstream races, especially since Prime Factor fizzled out. Risk Taking isn't any faster, but he has only ran once as a 3YO, and I see more to like with the horse he beat in the Withers (Overtook) than I do any of the horses chasing Greatest Honour. If he can get in, Roman Centurian is my favorite horse in terms of a horse clunking up for 4th at big odds in a race like the Derby. I do think he needs to get out of California, as racing at Santa Anita is doing him no favors with his running style. Helium somewhat fits into this mode as well...it's just an odd route that he is taking to get to the Derby.
Doesn't look like the most inspiring field at this time to take on Greatest Honour. Collaborate would be the horse I'm most intrigued with, but this will be his first attempt against winners. Beyond that, you'll have a couple horses that have lost to Greatest Honour in the Fountain of Youth take another shot at him, the 2nd place finisher in the mediocre Sam F. Davis (Nova Rags), and the 5th place beaten favorite of that Davis that came back to win a Gulfstream allowance (Known Agenda). It is worth noting that Known Agenda did beat Greatest Honour at 1 1/8 miles when he broke his maiden, so he has that going for him.
I got tickets for the race last week. I wasn’t expecting a great field here. Hoping to see Greatest Honnour take a huge step forward at least.
Last year aside, there is always at least 1 that emerges to be this year's version of Keen Ice. Haven't been awful at identifying them, either - Country House was that horse for me in 2019 and Lone Sailor/Instilled Regard were those horses for me in 2018. Just didn't actually think Country House could actually win the race, and with Instilled Regard, I was against Audible. We call it finding the next Keen Ice given we started going back and forth more about horse racing during that 2015 season, but for me personally - I would replace Keen Ice's name with Summer Bird. That was the first horse that I really identified in advance as one that I saw a lot to like out of a performance, even though that performance was a 3rd place finish in the Arkansas Derby. It didn't help in the Derby that year, as he ran well but finished 6th at giant odds, (not that I would have ever used Mine That Bird even if Summer Bird did finish in the top 4), but it damn sure paid off in the Belmont that year. That he turned into the best 3YO male (2nd best 3YO overall behind Rachel) was icing on the cake.
That's why I always ride with you on that one. If it doesn't hit in the derby, usually does by the Belmont. Finally had a chance to go back and watch most of everything, I feel like a larger super key with LIG up top is the way to go this year, haven't felt that strongly about a horse winning since California Chrome after Shared Belief got injured. If the board is all muddled, maybe even just go bigger on the bet and shoot for the key tri. $1 tri hit for $1700 on Chrome's year, maybe up that to $5 or $10 and go for it rather than the 8 super box. Dallas have anything going this year?
He has a 20-1 shot in the Louisiana Derby this weekend, but I have a hard time seeing him get the points he needs with the Louisiana trio all in the race plus Hot Rod Charlie.
As I was saying, I think we should stick to our 7 horse super box like every year and not deviate from the plan at all ... That freaking sucks though. Was the class of that crop so far.
Mandaloun and Proxy should be the top two choices in this field, but I don't think there should be as large of a difference in odds between those two (6-5 and 5-2, respectively) and Midnight Bourbon, who is 7-1. I don't have any money on the race, just going to watch it, but that stands out to me.
All the talk about this crop of Louisiana horses being “serious” derby horses turned out to be nonsense.
Not sure I'm completely ready to go that far yet, though it seems clear the west coast has been the strongest group so far. Midnight Bourbon ran his race and just found one better - not that much of a surprise. He is what he is. Proxy didn't have the easiest of trips, though, getting bumped around a bit early. Would have liked to see him outfinish O Besos, but he wasn't awful. Mandaloun is the one I look at and can't explain. He did no running whatsoever. I think part of the reason that Louisiana got a little more hype this year is that outside of the Baffert horses and Essential Quality, there just hasn't been much out there to grab on to. Greatest Honour is really the only Gulfstream horse seen as a top contender, and he has yet to run a fast race. New York doesn't have much (and this is coming from someone much higher on Risk Taking than most). The Tampa Bay Derby was a weak edition this year. Arkansas has mostly been taken over by Essential Quality and Baffert, especially with Caddo River disappointing last time out. Comparatively speaking, the Louisiana horses have been faster than all of those jurisdictions, so they seemed the most logical of the alternatives. I don't expect to pick any of these horses as my Derby winner, but barring Greatest Honour taking a big step forward in the Florida Derby, I'd rather use a horse like Proxy at his odds than I would use Greatest Honour at what he is likely to go off at.
Some thoughts on the Derby prep races tomorrow: Wood Memorial: Risk Taking (4) is the morning line favorite, but I think by post time, Prevalence (6) will be favored. I'm still not sure how I feel about Prevalence. His maiden breaker was visually impressive and got a nice speed fig, but that wasn't the strongest field he beat, and his allowance race in his second start I thought was just fine. I'm also not sure if longer is better for him. I'm going to try and beat him. Of the two favorites, I much prefer Risk Taking, and he'll be my pick to win. He wants every bit of distance that you can give him, and despite the slower speed figs, I liked the Withers much more overall as a race than the Gotham, which Weyburn (8) and Crowded Trade (2) come out of. Those two need to prove to me that the Gotham wasn't a fluke (though if forced to pick one, it would be Weyburn). Besides Risk Taking, I'm at least a little intrigued with Brooklyn Strong (1) and Dynamic One (5), and may try to match them up in exactas with Risk Taking. But I'd be more than okay with making a win bet on Risk Taking even if he fell to 2-1, and a win bet on him probably interests me more than getting too involved with the exotics. Don't think I would take any shorter than that though. Wood Memorial selections: 1. Risk Taking (4) 5-2 2. Brooklyn Strong (1) 6-1 3. Dynamic One (5) 12-1 Blue Grass Stakes: Not a whole lot to analyze with this one - I expect Essential Quality (4) to win. There is next to no speed in this field, and the top two choices (Essential Quality and Highly Motivated (3)) should be forwardly placed. And with Highly Motivated, I expect him to be better going around one turn in the end. The one other horse I at least have a little interest in is Untreated (2), who is coming off of a maiden win at Tampa. He beat nothing that day, but visually I liked what I saw. I will probably just do a trifecta with Essential Quality on top and Highly Motivated/Untreated in second and third, and a cold exacta bet of Essential Quality-Untreated also has some interest of me. Blue Grass Stakes selections: 1. Essential Quality (4) 3-5 2. Untreated (2) 10-1 3. Highly Motivated (3) 3-1 Santa Anita Derby: Medina Spirit (7) is the morning line favorite and the most likely winner. And he will end up being my top pick, but unless he drifts in price more than I think will, I don't see this as a race I'm rushing to make a win bet on. The main objective for me in this spot is to get Roman Centurian (1) into the top three. I don't see him as a likely win candidate in this spot, as the pace looks middling at best, and Santa Anita isn't the kindest track to closers. But I do think the longer distance will benefit him more than anyone else in the field, and he's shown that he can be competitive with horses like Medina Spirit and Hot Rod Charlie with his run in the Lewis. My play will be to key Roman Centurian in exotics with Medina Spirit, Dream Shake (2), and Defunded (10), with a higher weighting on the combinations with Medina Spirit on top. Santa Anita Derby selections: 1. Medina Spirit (7) 5-2 2. Roman Centurian (1) 8-1 3. Dream Shake (2) 7-2
So much for that plan for me in the Santa Anita Derby - Roman Centurian is being scratched because Callaghan didn't like the way he trained on Friday. Doing some testing on him, and if all goes well, he may still go in the Arkansas Derby or Lexington Stakes.
Bob has the best excuses it’s as if he didn’t know the Arkansas derby was 3 weeks before the Kentucky derby
It sucks for rispoli he lost rock your world to rosario. rispoli is my favorite jockey currently riding not named hector Berrios.
the practical joke is out of a texas bred my golden song mare named in gold blood. her third dam is https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=1220675®istry=T&rbt=TB the other filly is an upstart out of a mare i raced named bode on tap. that mare is a bodemeister on top out of a tapit mare. we're sending bode on tap to spun to run. we were going to send in gold blood to texas red because i got a season for $1,500. but the people i board the mares with in kentucky say her yearling on the ground, by bradester, looks like a monster and then they really like the look of this foal, so we are reevaluating.
Probably need to send to someone who is actually a horseman and not just a trainer. That wide leg action can be hard on horses and I would want someone who can actually sit on a horse
Not 100% locked in yet, but I think I'm leaning towards Mandaloun, and I'm just going to pretend his Louisiana Derby doesn't exist.
I agree with Mandaloun. I also like Hot Rod and long shot Soup and Sandwich (very unscientific but watching him in the paddock at Florida was awesome I bet him and he finished 2nd)
Was en fuego betting yesterday afternoon. Won like $16k on the horses. Going to book a last minute trip to the derby fuck it
Literally haven’t looked at anything if I find something I’ll let y’all know I have one running this evening at lone star, Carlos sixes in the 6th, who should be tough