Official Horse Racing Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by mtsucalico85, Apr 9, 2015.

  1. JGator1

    JGator1 I'm the Michael Jordan of the industry
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    Should I bet on Medina Spirit?
     
  2. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    He's what I would lean towards. Anything better than 2-1 is good value on him, and I think most likely that is what is going to occur given the betting trends.
     
  3. Gallant Knight

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    Lol Chad brown just came over and bullshitted with us
     
  4. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    We putting the house on Medina?
     
  5. JGator1

    JGator1 I'm the Michael Jordan of the industry
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    welp fuck Medina Spirit that's why I don't bet horses
     
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  6. sc_chant

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    Had the 3, 5, 6, 10 exacta box :rain:
     
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  7. southlick

    southlick "Better Than You"
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  8. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    what had you on the 6? nothing about him stood out to me
     
  9. sc_chant

    sc_chant Be A Dog
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    I have no idea what I'm doing
     
  10. Gallant Knight

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  11. Gallant Knight

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    Hung out with Chad brown and Claudia from Gulfstream

    was a good time
     
  12. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    I love this
     
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  13. Gallant Knight

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    Lol some friends who stayed until the last race somehow were invited to the after party with Belinda stronarch

    also Claudia from Gulfstream one of the nicest people I’ve ever met
     
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  14. Gallant Knight

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    Apparently I was also invited to the after party but was so drunk I just stumbled to a cab
     
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  15. Gallant Knight

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    wow linda rice got $50k and 3 year suspension.
     
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  16. Gallant Knight

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    and nyra just banned baffert pending the test in ky
     
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  17. Gallant Knight

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    Have a two year old Texas bred making his debut next Friday. Trainer and jockey are high on him

    E3A66AB1-040D-4F54-AF62-D187849AC1D9.jpeg
     
  18. Gallant Knight

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    Just qualified for the NHC :)
     
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  19. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
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    Those say Danny Pish owns the horses. He's the trainer you use right? Does he just list the horse in his name, or is it just wrong on Equibase?
    What's your current stable?
     
  20. Gallant Knight

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    Ugh wow CDI suspends baffert for two years

    Other jurisdictions likely will reciprocate

    wow
     
  21. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    That's certainly a start. I really want to see how California reacts with him, though.
     
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  22. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Probably won't play much of the undercard tomorrow at Belmont - it is the least appealing Belmont Stakes undercard I've seen since they went to the new stakes schedule format, and I'll be working during the races anyways.

    But the Belmont itself should be a good race, and it is a much improved field from the Preakness. This isn't a race that I would try to get too creative with exotics - this sets up more as a straight win bet type of race given there are 5 major contenders, and 3 horses that appear to be up against it (I maintain that Overtook has a bright future, but thinking more late 2021 or 2022 for that to manifest itself, not this weekend). I could see a scenario where I bet any of the top five horses (with the possible exception of Hot Rod Charlie) depending on how the betting plays out.

    Here is my value line for the Belmont:
    1. Bourbonic: 49-1
    2. Essential Quality: 5-2
    3. Rombauer: 5-1
    4. Hot Rod Charlie: 6-1
    5. France Go de Ina: 49-1
    6. Known Agenda: 9-2
    7. Rock Your World: 4-1
    8. Overtook: 32-1

    My guess is that I will most likely end up betting one of Rock Your World or Known Agenda. I think Essential Quality is the most likely winner, but I think he ends up going off at under 2-1 at the end of the day, which is just too short of a price for me in a field like this. If I had to make a pick now, it would be Rock Your World, as there isn't much speed to challenge him, and the Belmont is a race that I prefer to have horses forwardly placed. Pedigree suggests the added distance shouldn't be a problem, though I don't think the distance will get any of the top five beat outside of maybe Hot Rod Charlie.
     
  23. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    For the Manhattan, I am intrigued by the 5 horse, Master Piece. It's a step up in class for him, but speed figure wise, he is as fast if not faster than anyone in the race. In his two American races, he has ran a 102 and 103 Beyer, compared to the favorites like Domestic Spending and Colonel Liam, who have topped out in the 99-100 range. And he has the same running style as Domestic Spending, from the same trainer in Chad Brown. I don't think he puts him in here if he doesn't think he has a real shot with him.

    He's currently 13-1, and while I figure he drops a bit from there, I don't see him being any lower that 8-1 or 10-1, and I am happy to take a shot with him at those odds.
     
  24. Hogview

    Hogview Fan of the Green board, Razorbacks
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    Arkansas Derby moving to April 2nd and for $1.25 mil
     
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  25. Gallant Knight

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    And Oaklawn opening in December
     
  26. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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  27. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Mandaloun is working his way to a 3YO of the year resume without actually finishing 1st in his races.
     
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  28. b7

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    That was a real good battle. Hopefully Paco Lopez is ok.
     
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  29. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Looks like he avoided anything more than a sore knee. Sounds like he plans on riding tomorrow.
     
  30. Gallant Knight

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    Closed office at 3:00 today. Glad I did that

    F50CE9A3-DA93-4911-B779-D06209F3EE76.jpeg C6613C44-8374-4728-AD9D-114E03174A94.jpeg 9AC3B2CC-C6CA-4C0C-A018-EA25E2D2850E.jpeg
     
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  31. Alshon

    Alshon Well-Known Member
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  32. Gallant Knight

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    Just watched some race replayed and fired
     
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  33. b7

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    My harness horse won won on her 2nd time out. My other two owners wanted to sell i didn’t. 2 against one I lost.
     
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  34. Gallant Knight

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    Message from the people who board my mates/foals to my bloodstock guy yesterday. Apparently the practical joke filly I have is pretty nice
    CB51BDA4-7FF7-4C53-A735-3C9D6894013B.jpeg
     
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  35. Gallant Knight

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    Also have a Practical Joke weanling, who is the sire of Wit who is probably the best two year old

    Wit and Double Thunder will probably face off in the Saratoga Special this weekend
     
  36. Alshon

    Alshon Well-Known Member
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    If a race gets moved off turf, is it still raced at the same distance but on dirt? If not, is there a way to know the distance beforehand?
     
  37. Gallant Knight

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    Usually in the racing form it will have the alternate dirt distance

    most of the time it is the same
     
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  38. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Well that was certainly an interesting edition of the Forego.
     
  39. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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  40. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Better angle of what happened:



    I had forgotten that this had happened to Firenze Fire a couple years ago.

     
  41. mal630

    mal630 Well-Known Member
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    Any picks for these last 2 races at Saratoga?
     
  42. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I'm a little interested in Cross Border (7) in the Sword Dancer, though I do think Tribhuvan (1) is the most likely winner.

    In the Travers, I don't know if I want to have a ton of money against Essential Quality (2), but Midnight Bourbon (1) may have a pace advantage in the race, and I don't think Dynamic One (4) is impossible either. I may just key Essential Quality in an exacta with those two, putting more weight on Essential Quality on top.
     
  43. Gallant Knight

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    I’m going with king fury
     
  44. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    At some point, a price horse has to win today. The longest price to win so far today was 6-1, and the second longest price was 2.7-1.
     
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  45. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    That maiden winner from the 2nd race (Jack Christopher) is a runner, that's for sure. Pretty sprint heavy pedigree, though.
     
  46. mal630

    mal630 Well-Known Member
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    What do we think that exacta pays? Can't be too much
     
  47. Gallant Knight

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    Oh well essential quality was most likely winner but if I’m betting 2-5 it needs to be better than that
     
  48. mal630

    mal630 Well-Known Member
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    I exacta boxed Essential Quality, Midnight Bourbon and Dynamic One and marginally lost money with the win. Haha
     
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