Official Horse Racing Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by mtsucalico85, Apr 9, 2015.

  1. Hogview

    Hogview Fan of the Green board, Razorbacks
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    Any thoughts on oaklawn today?
     
  2. momux

    momux AFAM Scholar
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    Folks would appreciate any handicapping for the oaks or the derby.
     
  3. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Was going to dig more into the handicapping later this week.

    Here is the post draw and morning line:
     
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  4. Jt272929

    Jt272929 TMB only ISU Fan.

    Everyone ready for the derby? Will start looking at it tonight, just reading some articles looks like may be some money on the board this weekend....
     
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  5. Jt272929

    Jt272929 TMB only ISU Fan.

    Early thoughts

    Taiba, Zandon, Messier
    Taiba, Zandon, Messier, Epicenter
    Taiba, Zandon, Messier, Epicenter, Mo Donegal
    Taiba, Zandon, Messier, Epicenter, Mo Donegal, White Abarrio
     
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  6. mal630

    mal630 Well-Known Member
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    I have an early bet on Taiba at +900. Not sure what else to do
     
  7. Jt272929

    Jt272929 TMB only ISU Fan.

    Depends on what type of bets you are looking to play, Where are you betting through?
     
  8. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Kentucky Oaks thoughts: There seems to be a top 4 and then the rest of the field, with Secret Oath (1), Nest (4), Echo Zulu (7), and Kathleen O (10) that top group. I was a little surprised that she was made the morning line favorite (and a win bet on her at that 5-2 price doesn't excite me), but I do like Nest the most of that group. I think the Gulfstream race that Kathleen O won looks better on paper than in actual performance, and (while a win) Echo Zulu ran worse in her 3YO debut than she did in any of her 2YO races. Secret Oath I probably like the second most of the group. But I want to try and sneak Desert Dawn (9) into the exotics. I think she beat a couple of nice fillies in the Santa Anita Oaks, and I think distance will be her friend, whereas horses like Echo Zulu and Secret Oath I'm not completely sold want to go this far.

    Kentucky Oaks picks:
    1. Nest (4) 5-2
    2. Desert Dawn (9) 20-1
    3. Secret Oath (1) 6-1
    4. Echo Zulu (7) 4-1

    My plan will be to play a trifecta where I key Nest and Desert Dawn in two of the spots, with a collection of Secret Oath, Echo Zulu, Kathleen O, and Hidden Connection (3) in the other spot.

    4, 9
    4, 9
    1, 3, 7, 10

    4, 9
    1, 3, 7, 10
    4, 9

    1, 3, 7, 10
    4, 9
    4, 9
     
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  9. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Kentucky Derby: I think there are 4 horses that can win: Mo Donegal (1), Epicenter (3), Zandon (10), and Taiba (12). From a pure win perspective, Taiba will be my selection - assuming he doesn't get bet down anymore than around 5-1 or 6-1 (the 12-1 morning line isn't happening). There is a reasonable chance that his best is just better than anyone else's best, and given that he'll be 3rd choice at the very least, there is value there. That said, he is not the type of horse I'd want to key - as talented as he is, this still could be too much, too soon. He has strong 'win or off the board' vibes.

    The horse I will be keying in exotics is Mo Donegal. I'm not concerned about drawing the 1 post because a) he's a deep closer anyways and b) the new 20-horse gate provides more space for horses breaking out of the 1 post. I don't think much separates him and Zandon - they were head to head in the Remsen last year and they both had similar 2022 races (troubled 3rd with a promising close in their 1st race, then winning with an impressive stretch run in their 2nd and final prep). I know Zandon is getting praise for his workouts, but I don't see why one should be 3-4x the price of the other. He's the best value of the big 4 in terms of hitting the board, so I will be relying on him.

    I will not be using anyone other than those four on top in my exotics, but some price horses I would be willing to use underneath (in order of preference) are Smile Happy (5), Zozos (19), Barber Road (14), and Tawny Port (18).

    Messier (6) and Pioneer of Medina (11) were my toughest calls, but will be willing to let them beat me. Just think Messier looks better on paper than he actually is. As for Pioneer of Medina, as much as I like the Louisiana races, I couldn't justify using all 6 horses who raced down there, and he was the one that I had the hardest time seeing hit the board of the group.

    Kentucky Derby picks:
    1. Taiba (12) 12-1
    2. Mo Donegal (1) 10-1
    3. Epicenter (3) 7-2
    4. Zandon (10) 3-1
    5. Smile Happy (5) 20-1

    My trifecta bet for the race will look like this:

    1
    3, 5, 10, 12, 14, 18, 19
    3, 5, 10, 12, 14, 18, 19

    3, 10, 12
    1
    3, 5, 10, 12, 14, 18, 19

    3, 10, 12
    3, 5, 10, 12, 14, 18, 19
    1
     
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  10. momux

    momux AFAM Scholar
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    Going to be a long couple of days.

    upload_2022-5-6_9-37-23.jpeg
     
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  11. Jt272929

    Jt272929 TMB only ISU Fan.


    Nicely Written, For the oaks I'm thinking Nest and Kathleen O with the rest of the field behind, Haven't made my play yet as ill watch Churchill all day and see if any trends develop. Unfortunately will be driving during the oaks so will have to stream on my phone.
     
  12. Jt272929

    Jt272929 TMB only ISU Fan.

    Sucks that Grael Scratched the 3rd race, was really high on him with a good price.
     
  13. Jt272929

    Jt272929 TMB only ISU Fan.

    Hit the Exacta and Tri in Races 4 & 5, didn't pay shit but o well.
     
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  14. momux

    momux AFAM Scholar
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    Let me know if you like anything else.
     
  15. Jt272929

    Jt272929 TMB only ISU Fan.

    Race 6

    2/4,2,4,6/2,4-6

    Might expand it into a super as well, well see
     
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  16. Jt272929

    Jt272929 TMB only ISU Fan.

    Nice position from the start kept that 7 in it for 3rd, thought the 4 would show more charge, moving on..
     
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  17. Jt272929

    Jt272929 TMB only ISU Fan.

    RACE 7

    2,5,7 EXACTA BOX

    Really don't love the race, and 5 is the clear favorite, hoping 2 can jump in and make an impact to bring some money.
     
  18. Jt272929

    Jt272929 TMB only ISU Fan.

    Another win, another low pay (as expected) the 2 needed to be in there for it to pay anything..moving on.
     
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  19. Jt272929

    Jt272929 TMB only ISU Fan.

    Going to be driving here in a little bit, but will leave you with my Oaks Picks

    Exacta
    1,4,7,10 BOX

    Tri
    4,10/1,4,7,10/1,4,7,10

    Oaks Derby Double
    4,10/6,10,12

    Good luck boys and ill check in tonight.
     
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  20. b7

    b7 Well-Known Member
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    I am going 4-9-10 in exactas and Tri with all at place for tri.
     
  21. Yanks711

    Yanks711 TMB's Hoosier
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    Thoughts on Crown Pride?
     
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  22. matadorjim

    matadorjim Well-Known Member
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    Nice play on the Tri!
     
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  23. momux

    momux AFAM Scholar
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    Thanks. This paid for the weekend.
     
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  24. Gaknight

    Gaknight Well-Known Member
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    I got bets on Mo Donegal, Charge it, and long shot on Zozos
     
  25. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I like the 5, Obligatory, in this spot.
     
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  26. LSUTigers1986

    LSUTigers1986 Well-Known Member
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    what a close
     
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  27. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I don't want him to be too much shorter than his current 9/2 (and I don't think he will), but I like Portfolio Company, the 6, in the American Turf.
     
  28. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I'm not looking to beat Jackie's Warrior (3) here, but I also don't really want to bet him at 4-5. Maybe I'd think about connecting him with Prevalence (6) in an exacta, but I don't plan on playing the race.
     
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  29. mal630

    mal630 Well-Known Member
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    Bookmakers race book is down for me. Sucks.
     
  30. DuffandMuff

    DuffandMuff Well-Known Member
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    $2 to win $163.60. I’m rich.

    (Up like $20 on the day)
     
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  31. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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  32. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    A horse that I thought ran really well and would be looking to bet next time out depending on where he shows up: Zozos. Here are the placements where the eventual top 11 finishers of the race were at at the half mile marker:

    18-8-11-15-17-19-14-9-16-3-13

    Nobody else that finished in the top 11 was in the top 7 after a half mile, and Zozos was racing in third up close to that hot pace. Also need to give credit to Epicenter, who was the only horse to finish in the top 7 that was in the top half of the field after a half mile.
     
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  33. Paddy Murphy

    Paddy Murphy Well-Known Member
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    The last gap he makes before the charge is freakishly agile.

    Once he got to a length behind in the live broadcast I swear you can see him look at the two in front and say fuck you. Maybe I want to see it but I swear he watches them all the way past them.
     
  34. Paddy Murphy

    Paddy Murphy Well-Known Member
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    Rich Strike’s highest Beyer before today was 84 apparently. I bet Gallant has (had) a couple horses that have run faster than that.
     
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  35. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    And that 84 was earned on synthetic when he finished 3rd in the Jeff Ruby, beaten over 5 lengths by Tiz The Bomb (also finished behind Tawny Port).

    His best dirt Beyer was a 65 in a $30,000 maiden claimer. That said, he did win that race by over 17 lengths, and that race was at Churchill.
     
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  36. Yanks711

    Yanks711 TMB's Hoosier
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    So this horse has essentially a 0% chance of making a run at the triple right?
     
  37. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I don't see it. His best case scenario to me is that he catches a lightning-in-a-bottle type of run that Mine That Bird had when he followed his Derby win with a 2nd in the Preakness and 3rd in the Belmont. Even that seems like a stretch to me, though. I don't see the paces in either of those spots being near as swift as that.
     
  38. Shunface

    Shunface Well-Known Member
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    If I’m the owner that horses never runs again and I just stud him out.
     
  39. Sammy Meatballs

    Sammy Meatballs Pete Gelding
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    He doesn’t win another race.
     
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  40. Illinihockey

    Illinihockey Well-Known Member
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    I’ve watched this probably 20 times and my jaw drops each time. The announcer is so focused on the two favorites he doesn’t even see rich strike flying up on the inside until the very end and his head almost exploded. It’s just amazing
     
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  41. Illinihockey

    Illinihockey Well-Known Member
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    God damn when he gets to the rail and everything opens up in front of him he just puts it in another gear and passes 9 horses like they’re standing still
     
  42. b7

    b7 Well-Known Member
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    i felt like he could of ran another mile. He was just getting stronger and stronger as all the others just faded.
     
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  43. Gallant Knight

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    His pedigree is not good
     
  44. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I will not tolerate this Keen Ice slander.
     
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  45. Shunface

    Shunface Well-Known Member
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    May be but he’s a derby winner. Stud fee has to go up.
     
  46. Gallant Knight

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    Prob 15k advertised right now but could get for half price

    he needs to win another race or two
     
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  47. Shunface

    Shunface Well-Known Member
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    $7-15k sounds pretty good to me.

    How many times can he go in a day?
     
  48. Gallant Knight

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    160 mares each season
     
  49. Shunface

    Shunface Well-Known Member
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    So low end 1.1 million to high end 2.4 million if he doesn’t race again.

    Per year for how many years?
     
  50. Gallant Knight

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    2-3 years and then it will go down and if his horses don’t do anything in the track he will get shipped to another country

    and you’re not getting all of that maybe like 30%
     
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