Official Horse Racing Thread

Happy for Javier Castellano to finally get a Derby win.

 

This, plus hit nothing on the undercard. Not great.

 

By name, it's the middle jewel of the Triple Crown. But by quality, this is a Grade 2 caliber field at best.

 

With First Mission scratching, the Preakness becomes even more of an underwhelming race. He and Mage were clearly the top two for me, so that leaves Mage (3) as far and away the most likely winner. I've never been a fan of National Treasure (1), and though I acknowledge he is now the second most likely winner, I don't think he has improved as a 3YO, and I'm not sold longer being better for him. I don't think the California races are as good as speed figures indicate they are. Blazing Sevens (7) is another horse that I think will be better going shorter, and am not sure if he has improved from 2 to 3.

If you think Mage wins (and I do), but don't really want to take 3-5 on him, then either a cold exacta or singling him in multi-race wagers is the way to go. Haven't dug into the undercard at all yet (will look at it in the morning), so I'll focus on the exacta. It comes down to either Red Route One (5) or Perform (6), and I'll lean towards Perform. He's too slow to win, and frankly needs to get faster to get second, but he has improved after stretching out to two turns, and visually had an impressive finish dodging traffic in the Tesio. It's fair to question what he beat, but that his connections paid $150,000 to make him eligible for the race afterwards is a positive sign to me. I don't think Shug McGaughey would sign off on that if he didn't think he had a real opportunity for a big piece here. I also think he can be a little more forwardly placed than Red Route One, who has absolutely no early speed whatsoever.

If Mage is even money, though, I think that is sufficient enough value wise to make a win bet on him. Even 4-5 could be fair value for him. Wouldn't go any shorter than that.

Preakness picks:
1. Mage (3) 8-5
2. Perform (6) 15-1
3. Red Route One (5) 10-1

 

Pace made the race. National Treasure couldn't have had a more ideal setup.

 

I still haven't fully made up my mind, and my guess is it will come down to how they are bet. But I am mostly down to Angel of Empire and Hit Show, with Tapit Trice still a consideration but likely third. If Hit Show is closer to his 10-1 morning line, he's probably the play, but my hunch is he gets bet down to closer to 6-1 or 7-1. If that happens, and Angel of Empire is around his 7-2 morning line, he would be my top pick. Tapit Trice is the prototypical Belmont horse in that he is a Tapit colt trained by Todd Pletcher and he looks like he'll run all day, but if he and Angel of Empire are similar prices, I'd rather go with Angel of Empire who was clearly better than him on Derby day despite similar trips. If for some reason Tapit Trice doesn't take any money and goes off closer to 5-1 or 6-1, as opposed to his 3-1 morning line, then he's more appealing to me.

I will be trying to beat Forte (maybe in exotics underneath for him, but I've always had some distance concerns, and he hasn't raced in 8 weeks now) and especially National Treasure (Preakness was weak, and he'll face more pressure this time around from Tapit Shoes)

 

Won't be around by the time the Belmont goes off (will give my thoughts beforehand though), but will play along with some of the undercard beforehand.

In the next race, I like Next (5). Think he needed the race last time out off of the layoff, and think he steps up to his form of last year this time around, which is good enough to win this race.

 

In the Odgen Phipps, I think Clairiere (6) is the most likely winner, but I'm also interested in Pass the Champagne (1) at a bit of a price. Clairiere at 9-5 is reasonable enough for a price, though I don't want to take any shorter. But I want to connect those two in an exacta, and may also mix in Search Results (2) as well in exotics.

 

Acknowledging that Arabian Lion (3) and General Jim (4) should be the two favorites based on their past couple races, I think the Woody Stephens is pretty wide open. I think horses like Drew's Gold (13) and Federal Judge (7) are live at solid prices, but I will lean towards Victory Formation (11). He's been running in two turn races trying to make the Derby after winning the Smarty Jones (beating Angel of Empire in the process), and I think he'll be best going forward at one turn. Not a strong win bet for me, given how open the race is, but at around 10-1, I think he's worth a shot.

 

I won't be around after this next race, so will give some quick thoughts.

Race 9: Not a race I will put a lot into since I suck at handicapping turf sprints, but I do like Casa Creed (11), a horse who loves Belmont Park and has won this race the past two times.

Race 10: Cody's Wish (1) is far and away the horse to beat. But if someone beats him, I think it is Charge It (5). He's not the most reliable horse, but the one time he ran at Belmont, he ran his career best race in the Dwyer last season. Admittedly, this is a much tougher field than that Dwyer was. I don't want to take anything shorter than 5-1 on him, but if he's at that price, I'll take a shot with him to upset Cody's Wish. But I will have those two in an exacta as well.

Race 11: It's a two horse race to me in Up to the Mark (8) and Ottoman Fleet (4). If they were the same price, I'd narrowly lean towards Up to the Mark, but I think he will end up being solidly favored, so I expect that Ottoman Fleet will be the horse I end up betting to win.

Race 12 (Belmont Stakes): I think Angel of Empire (8) is most likely going to be where I end up, given that he sticks around his current 7-2 odds. But Tapit Trice (2) is currently 6-1. I assume he will take more money and end up more even with Angel of Empire, and given even odds, I will take Angel of Empire. If he somehow stays twice the price, though, I think that is the better value. Hit Show (7) remains the third horse I am tracking, and he is currently 8-1. I'd prefer Angel of Empire at 7-2 over that price for Hit Show.

Given current odds: my betting preference order of those three is: 1) Tapit Trice (6-1), 2) Angel of Empire (7-2), 3) Hit Show (8-1)

At what I think they will go off at: 1) Angel of Empire (7-2), 2) Hit Show (8-1), 3) Tapit Trice (7-2)