I've been lurking. We've been quite busy with severe weather since July 4th... Haven't been in the mood to talk weather outside of work
A broad low pressure system located about 1100 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Slow development of this system is expected during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, and a tropical depression is likely to form several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are now forecast to become unfavorable for additional development by early next week as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Get to deal with this bastard over the weekend. Looks to be more annoying than bad, but will be my first direct-ish hit after experiencing the sideswipe from Mangkhut last September.
Good luck with that dude, hope its not too bad. Straight line winds seem low but not sure how geography will affect you as far as rain and flooding.
I'm good, as I'm a couple miles inland and relatively high ground. Had torrential rains when I first moved here last August that led to flooding that killed 6 people in the city.
Living in Florida, flooding is so rare because of the soil, its always been crazy how such a small amount of rain (relatively speaking) can cause deadly flash flooding. Glad you are in a higher elevation.
Biggest variable will be the shear impact on Dorians strength. If the shear is strong, won't matter where Dorian ends up.
As long as this shit doesn't fuck up another damn football weekend for us (what would it be, four seasons in a row or some shit?)...
Saturday games should be fine, it's not moving that fast. Appears to be honing in on West Palm up to Cape Canaveral Sunday late morning. Many more model runs to go...
Still has to navigate the end game boss before it even has a shot. At this point; it is a mess of a storm and has to run the shredder to have a shot at Florida.
Appears to be some disagreement in the models on how strong the high pressure is. Some have it slightly less potent, allowing Dorian to steam into Cape Canaveral. Others have it pushing towards Florida and directing Dorian west even southwest near Fort Lauderdale.
Which are typically the better predictors of intensity, the dynamical or statistical models? It's weird seeing the track guidance in such agreement (relatively speaking), and the intensity guidance have such variation between models, usually the exact opposite.
Mother fuck, suppose to be at the beach in SC this weekend. Need this thing to take a turn east and fuck up the middle of the Atlantic