Official Hurricane Season Thread (Swings and Roundabouts))

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by NittanyKnight, Jun 28, 2011.

  1. NittanyKnight

    NittanyKnight They got love bites and everything
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    2012 Predictions from various sources

    • 11-14 named storms
    • 5-7 hurricanes
    • 2-3 major hurricanes
    2012 Names

    1. Alberto (Page 23) - formed 5/19 5pm No landfall Last Advisory 5/22 11am

    2. Beryl - (Page 24 to Page 26) formed 5/25 11pm, Landfall Jacksonville Beach 5/28 as a Tropical Storm with 70mph winds, Last Advisory 5/30 5pm

    3. Chris - (Page 27) formed 6/19 5pm No landfall Last Advisory 6/22 11am

    4. Debby (Page 28 to Page 36) - formed 6/23 5pm Landall near Steinhatchee, FL 6/26 TS (40mph), Last advisory 6/27 8pm

    5. Ernesto (Page 37) - formed 8/2 5pm Landfall #1 8/7 11pm Mahahual Mexico (Cat 1-85mph) Landfall #2 8/9 2pm Coatzacolas Mexico (TS 50mph) Last Advisory 8/10 11am

    6. Florence (Page 37) - formed 8/4 8am No Landfall Last Advisory 8/6 11am

    7. Gordon (Page 38) - formed 8/16 5am Landfall 8/20 2:30am Azores Islands (Cat 1-75mph)

    8. Helene (no discussion) - formed 8/17 5:30pm Landfall 8/18 Tampico, Mexico Tropical Storm Last Advisory 8/18 11pm

    9. Isaac (Page 38) - formed 8/21 5pm Landfall 8/28 8pm Plaquemines Parish (Cat1-80mph)

    10. Joyce (No discussion) - formed 8/23 11am No Landfall Last Advisory 8/24 11am

    11. Kirk (No discussion) - formed 8/28 11pm No Landfall Last Advisory

    Leslie
    Michael
    Nadine
    Oscar
    Patty
    Rafael
    Sandy
    Tony
    Valerie
    William

    Useful Websites
    http://www.weatherbellmodels.com/weather/ - Best for forecast models when no storms have developed.
    www.nhc.noaa.gov - National Hurricane Center
    www.spaghettimodels.com - Forecast model tracks once the storm has developed
     
  2. NittanyKnight

    NittanyKnight They got love bites and everything
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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene)

    Starting to get a little more organized. Arlene is expected to reach 60-70 mph winds before landfall early Thursday. Hurricane hunters are expected to fly into the storm later this morning to get a good look at it.


    [​IMG]
     
  3. dblplay1212

    dblplay1212 Well-Known Member
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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene Forms)

    We've had some pretty damn bad forrest fires around NE FL lately. Jax has been filled with smoke. Wouldn't mind a light tropical storm to bring 3 days of rain to put them out. Nothing severe, though. See what you can do, NK.
     
  4. NittanyKnight

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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene Forms)

    Yeah was really hoping that this storm made its way further north towards Texas to help them.


    I wish I had control over the weather. It will be well into late July before anything really gets going for Florida.
     
  5. prerecordedlive

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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene Forms)

    Good night, sweet Gulf Coast.
     
  6. NittanyKnight

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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene Heading for Mexico)

    Hurricane hunter plane completed their fly over/through and found 45 mph winds in the storm.
     
  7. NittanyKnight

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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene Heading for Mexico)

    http://landfalldisplay.geolabvirtualmaps.com/


    Says 33% of a major hurricane for the state of Florida.
     
  8. NinjaRXA

    NinjaRXA Make Anime Great Again
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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene Heading for Mexico)

    dear sweet, merciful, yet angry AIGAIOS

    please spare Tampa from your wrath

    love NinjaRXA
     
  9. HOOSINSC

    HOOSINSC You're with me leather
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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene Heading for Mexico)

    I'm expecting the coast to get hit much harder than the gulf. Unless we get something like Hugo I'll be safe where I live.
     
  10. brahmanknight

    brahmanknight MC OG, UCF Knights, bacon, vodka, white wemminz
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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene Heading for Mexico)

    I with ya.

    If a storm ever came up Tampa Bay ( like Charley was suppossed to in 2004 before it turned and hit Punta Gorda ) with the winds blowing north, no way everything south of I 275 isn't flooded. Hell, a good size thunderstorm floods parts of that area now.
     
  11. NittanyKnight

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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene Heading for Mexico)

    Tampa is overdue according to historical stats.

    http://www.hurricanecity.com/city/tampa.htm

    Anything that gets into Gulf this year is going to blow up. Water temps are high and the water was relatively untouched last season. Now saying that; the coast of SC and NC are due for a big one.
     
  12. Sweet Dick Willie

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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene Heading for Mexico)

    Tampa/centralx Florida are due for a hurricane big time.
     
  13. O-face

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  14. clemsontyger04

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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene Heading for Mexico)

    SC is due for a big hurricane
     
  15. prerecordedlive

    prerecordedlive Matthew Gertz is my real Congressman
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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene Heading for Mexico)

    5.8% chance Escambia Co. gets hurricane force winds. Not bad. I'll take that allllll day.
     
  16. NinjaRXA

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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene Heading for Mexico)

    DON'T YOU PUT THAT EVIL ON ME!
     
  17. beerleagueman

    beerleagueman Well-Known Member

    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene Heading for Mexico)

    anything under a Cat 2 can be fun if it's a fast moving storm
     
  18. Sweet Dick Willie

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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene Heading for Mexico)

    Sister lives in tampa
    , aunt and uncle in Lakeland
    My parents in norlando
     
  19. brahmanknight

    brahmanknight MC OG, UCF Knights, bacon, vodka, white wemminz
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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene Heading for Mexico)

    Yeah, I don't even pay a hurricane any attention until it hits Cat 3. Anything under that is just an afternoon thunderstorm to me.
     
  20. I <3 bama cock

    I <3 bama cock Sharks are born swimming
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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene Heading for Mexico)

    Louisiana deserves a break this year. Although our economy would probably appreciate a big boy.
     
  21. LSUTigers1986

    LSUTigers1986 Well-Known Member
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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene Heading for Mexico)

    16.5% for hurricane force winds in Orleans "County". Thank God I live in Orleans Parish.
     
  22. NinjaRXA

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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene Heading for Mexico)

    what? fuck them, I live in Tampa
     
  23. Jack Parkman

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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene Heading for Mexico)

    we've been lucky the last couple hurricane seasons down here, we're def due for a bad hurricane season
     
  24. CK D Floppin

    CK D Floppin Eat a bag of dicks Bruce

    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene Heading for Mexico)

    Will enjoy watching Geraldo getting all [​IMG] before being swept out to sea
     
  25. Jigga

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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene Heading for Mexico)

    S Fla is gonna get ass fucked this year
     
  26. brahmanknight

    brahmanknight MC OG, UCF Knights, bacon, vodka, white wemminz
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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene Heading for Mexico)

    If only we were so lucky as to see him wash out to sea.
     
  27. NittanyKnight

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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene Heading for Mexico)

    Arlene is now up to 60 mph winds and hurricane warnings have been posted. The storm is moving from 80-82 degree water into 83-86 degree water so some possible growth before landfall is possible. The impact on southern Texas has also increase because the storm is still north/northeast dominate which will see some showers move into extreme southern Texas on Thursday.


    [​IMG]
     
  28. I <3 bama cock

    I <3 bama cock Sharks are born swimming
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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene Heading for Mexico)

    With all of the scorching temperatures early in the year, and the lack of any rain has the Gulf just boiling. I really think this is going to be a turrible year for the gulf south.
     
  29. OopsPowSurprise

    OopsPowSurprise Owed one ass kicking from poweshow
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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene Heading for Mexico)

    yeah this is gonna be fucking brutal this summer
     
  30. NittanyKnight

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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene Heading for Mexico)

    Yep temps are running in the lower 80s in the middle of gulf and it is from 84-87 to closer to land.
     
  31. I <3 bama cock

    I <3 bama cock Sharks are born swimming
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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene Heading for Mexico)

    Not to mention summer officially started 7 days ago. We could be seeing 90 degree water off the coast :ohdear:
     
  32. NittanyKnight

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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene Heading for Mexico)

    It is very possible. Right now the western gulf near the coast is running 1 to 6 degrees above average already. July and August could see those temps reach as high as 92 or 93 degrees.

    There are already 2 stations over 90 degrees.

    The eastern gulf is warmer than average but not nearly as extreme as the western gulf. Dauphin
    Island is about 5 degrees above normal. Everywhere else is 1-3.
     
  33. prerecordedlive

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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene Heading for Mexico)

    Sign this man up, Jimbo.
     
  34. NittanyKnight

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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene Heading for Mexico)

    No changes with 11pm update.


    60mph winds extending out 140 miles. Tampico is already getting some of the rain bands. They are thinking it could be a hurricane right before landfall.
     
  35. Perdido Beach

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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene Heading for Mexico)

    :ohdear:
     
  36. NittanyKnight

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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene Heading for Mexico)

    5am update says landfall is happening near Cabo Rojo. Winds are at 65 mph. TS force winds are extending out 205 miles from the center.
     
  37. I <3 bama cock

    I <3 bama cock Sharks are born swimming
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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene - Landfall in Mexico)

    Did it ever turn into a hurricane nk?
     
  38. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene - Landfall in Mexico)

    No, sustained winds peaked at 65 mph.
     
  39. Arkadin

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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene - Landfall in Mexico)

    charleston is waaaay over due :ohnoes:
     
  40. knights390

    knights390 New Member
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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene - Landfall in Mexico)

    sorry if this was already posted but, NK are you a meteorologist or something?
     
  41. Sweet Dick Willie

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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene - Landfall in Mexico)

    He's god


    :oshit:
     
  42. NittanyKnight

    NittanyKnight They got love bites and everything
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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Arlene - Landfall in Mexico)

    Arlene is now a depression and will become just a large thunderstorm complex overnight. Main issue has been the 6+ inches of rain that has fallen and possibility of 6 or more to come from the storm. Flooding is the problem and will continue to be the problem. Just wish the storm would have came inland about 100 miles to the north and gave some much needed rain to Texas.

    Mexico has done well updating their infrastructure and are reporting very few issues besides the flooding. 5 years ago a storm like this would have destroyed the infrastructure of those areas hit by the storm.



    Yep. That Savannah to Myrtle Beach area has been due for a couple of years now.


    Nope just have an interest in the weather.
     
  43. Arkadin

    Arkadin inefficiently efficent and unclearly clear
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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TD Arlene)

    seriously. god thats gonna suck

    and if they miss us they always hit wilmington and my grandmother lives there. i will be cleaning up somewhere this summer imo
     
  44. NittanyKnight

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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TD Arlene)

    Hopefully it is just a repeat of last season with the storms staying away from the US overall.
     
  45. Jack Parkman

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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TD Arlene)

    had a nasty storm come by sofla today, some serious winds and thunder
     
  46. NittanyKnight

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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (All is calm)

    Florida is feeling the effects of this wave that is centered over some really warm water off of northwest Cuba. It is starting to show signs of oganzing a little better with pressure dropping and the storms starting to develop more intensity to them. 40% chance of development in the next 48 hours. It will continue to track towards the northeast towards the Big Bend area of Florida.
     
  47. NittanyKnight

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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (All is calm)

    :cerealkiller: Tropical Storm Bret. Looks to be a northern Bahamas storm as it moves away from land. Possible rain impacting the east coast of Florida.
     
  48. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Bret - Northern Bahamas)

    There's a 50/50 shot of me working at NHC for the next year as part of my graduate program- it will either be there or with the Miami WFO (or theoretically, both could be possible, as it's the same building). :feelsgoodman:
     
  49. NittanyKnight

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    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Bret - Northern Bahamas)

    That would be a fantastic experience.


    Also 2am update on Bret is showing 45 mph winds. Tropical Storm warnings up for Grand Bahamas and Abaco Islands. Still moving at a crawl to south/southeast. Tracks are still taking out to sea and northwest of Bermuda.
     
  50. offshore

    offshore I'm on a boat

    Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Bret - Northern Bahamas)

    This thread is relevant to my interests