Official Hurricane Season Thread (Swings and Roundabouts))

Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (TS Bret - Northern Bahamas)

Not going to impact anything but Hurricane Dora in the Pacific is a strong category 4. 150 mph winds with gusts to 185. Expectations will be a rapid weakening over the next 24-48 hours.

 

Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (Nothing Happening Again)

Yeah one area of potential but it will get torn apart by wind shear. The shear this season has been strong.

It is only a matter of time. 16 straight hurricanes have missed the US. 3rd longest streak since 1950. Also there has never been 6 straight years without a major hurricane making landfall in the US. The last one was in 2005 (Rita).

 

Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (Nothing Happening Again)

Going to have a tropical depression later on today off the southwest coast of Cuba.

First set of forecast models are out for it. Pretty consistent thinking of a tropical storm within 24-36 hours. Some of the long range models have it as a small category 1 hurricane before landfall.

 

Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (Watching Invest 90l)

Yeah the model runs from the overnight had it going to more towards Texas and Louisiana. They are now focused on central and southern Texas. SHIPS has it building rather quickly into a strong tropical storm.

 

Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (Watching Invest 90l)

NHC is flying a recon fly later on today into the storm that is 50 miles northeast of Cancun. It should be a tropical depression after the flight is complete.

 

Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (Watching Invest 90l)

Tropical Storm Don has formed.


Models are targeting the Texas coastline at this point.

 

Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (Tropical Storm Don)





Winds are at 40mph and moving in a north/northwest direction




SHIPS is the only model taking it to hurricane strength. Very good news for Texas so they can much needed rain without the potential for wide spread damage.

http://image5.flhurricane.com/images/2011/clarki4latest.png

 

Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (Tropical Storm Don)

Remember that storm well for it reorganizing/strengthening over land. They are still studying it and have not really reached any conclusion on what caused the rapid growth of it on land. The HAARP freaks claim it was because of the HAARP program. They look for any reason to wear their tin foil hats.

 

Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (Tropical Storm Don)

Yeah it looks like Texas will get a lot of help from this storm if it holds track. It looks be track into west Texas so there is hope that a frontal system from the west coast comes along and picks up the remaining moisture and sends it in your direction.

 

Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (Tropical Storm Don)

Tropical Storm Watch is up from Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass. Basically just north of South Padre Island to just south of Gavleston.


Still at 40mph winds and moving north/northwest at 12 mph. Still forecasted to stay at a Tropical Storm with 65mph winds. Most of the models are saying landfall around Corpus Christi.

 

Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (Tropical Storm Don)

TS Don still holding at 40 mph winds with those extending out 45 miles from the center of the storm. Forward speed has slowed to 10 mph. Hurricane Hunter aircraft is in route to further investigate the storm. Models have shifted landfall to the south of Corpus Christi. It is expected to make landfall late Friday night into Saturday morning.

 

Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (Tropical Storm Don)

11am update with hurricane recon info moves the winds up to 45mph. Movement is now northwest at 14 mph TS warnings are now posted for previous watch area. Also a new watch area to mouth of Rio Grande.

 

Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (Tropical Storm Don)

Not much change in the storm throughout the day. Still hanging around 45mph winds and moving to the west/northwest at 16mph. Official strength guidance is 60mph before landfall in the Corpus Christi area overnight Friday into Saturday. Cantore is reporting live from North Padre Island for now.

 

Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (Tropical Storm Don)

TS Don is up to 50mph and is moving west/northwest at 14mph. TS warnings have been dropped from San Luis Pass and points north. New warnings are up from the mouth of the Rio Grande to Matagorda. Winds are expected to climb to 60mph by afternoon today before landfall overnight tonight. Rainfall is expected in 3-6 inch range for areas in the path of the storm.



Also invest 91 is way out in the Atlantic but SHIPS intensity models are saying it will be a cat. 3 storm at the 120 hour mark. Models are bringing it across the Leeward Islands right now.

 

Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (Tropical Storm Don)

TS Don holding at 50mph and moving west/northwest at 16 mph. It is about 95 miles southeast of Corpus Christi. Winds are extending out 125 miles. Landfall is expected overnight near Padre Island.

 

Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (Tropical Storm Don)

Just took a piss that would have done more good than TS Don.



Now time to watch Invest 91 that is east of the Leeward Islands and has a 70% potential of tropical development in the next 48 hours.

 

Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (Don is dead)

Yeah forecast models are not looking promising unless you are headed to the Leewards or Bermuda.

 

Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (Don is dead)

Yeah hurricanes are pretty boring in comparison to tornadoes. Here is a site that has a bunch of the models and is pretty solid at looking at the storms.


http://spaghettimodels.com/

 

Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (Don is dead)

Yeah every time I go there; I stare at that map for a good 5 minutes.

It gets better when there is a big storm out there.

 

Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (Don is dead)

Yep basically what it is showing.


If you watch off the coast of Texas in the first couple of frames you can see TS Don.

 

Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (Don is dead)

Yeah anytime there is hurricane floating around; it is really something to just sit and stare at for a while.

 

Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (Don is dead)

Invest 91 is at 100% chance of tropical cyclone formation. Hurricane Hunters are flying into this afternoon and is expected to be become Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm Emily.


Models are dragging it across the Windward and Leeward Islands and across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola before northern turn and take it out to sea. At this point; the high pressure system in the gulf looks too strong for this storm to get close to the US.

 

Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (Emily later on Today)

NHC had communications issues with the recon flight and are still using satellite and ship reports to monitor the storm. No name just yet. Another recon flight is scheduled for Monday morning.


Models are still pretty consistent with the track staying east of the Bahamas and turn out to sea before the east coast of the states. Intensity models are all over the place from staying a tropical storm to a category 3 hurricane.

 

Re: Official Hurricane Season Thread (Emily later on Today)

Storm is struggling to organize. The lower level wind shear is starting to impact it as well as there is dry air ahead of it that could start wrapping into it.


Recon flight this afternoon so hopefully more information becomes available at that point.