A little clarification to the responses above. There are four main updates at the times Henry Blake mentioned (5am, 11am, 5pm, 11pm ET) for all storms. As Jigga mentioned, it does go to every 3 hours once watches/warnings are issued. However, these intermediate updates only update the positioning and current strength of the storm (and potentially to update the watches/warnings). In terms of the actual forecast track and intensity, these are almost always only updated during the four primary daily updates every 6 hours.
The Gulf of Mexico is essentially Nos for storms. This shit happens every time a storm sits over the gulf. If a storm is going to spend time in the gulf and you are in the path, be prepared for the worst.
Yep, if it's not moving at a high rate of speed, the gulf just amplifies them. It's so hot and shallow. There's not really a ton of cold water to upwell
Bolivar is a beach getaway full of mostly rentals and it just finally totally got back from Ike in 2008 when it was totally destroyed with almost nothing left. It’s probably gonna happen again.
My parents are renting a house for the rest of 2020 between Jamaica and San Luis starting 9/8. Not hopeful that's going to happen anymore
repeating what I said earlier, but only GTFO if you are in a flood zone. If you aren't stay where you are unless there are extenuating circumstances. All you are doing by leaving is adding more traffic to already packed roads and taking up more hotel space from people who need it more. Not to be derogatory, but don't fall victim to panicked wife syndrome. If your house is hurricane safe, bunker down and good to go.
Holy shit with everything now happening in Wisconsin no one is going to notice a potential Category 5 landfall. With so much to keep up with I didn't even see how strong Laura got until just now.
This thread is gonna be real busy, real soon. She’s turning into a fucking monster. Essentially everything bad that could have happened to get her to grow, has happened.
Yep gonna be our first too. As posted, we are far enough inland in the actual city of Houston where we should be fine but should be interesting. West side of the 610 loop
I’ve posted this in here before but it’s a really dire warning as to how vulnerable the infrastructure is around the port here to one of these storms. That infrastructure is responsible for providing power to a pretty significant part of the country too and the federal government has been slow to mitigate this risk. Let us pray!
12z euro - ~970mb at landfall https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...n=watl&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2020082612&fh=0
The ECMWF on Tropical Tidbits isn't the highest resolution since the higher resolution ECMWF is usually behind a paywall, plus this is when Laura has moved inland. Laura is already down to 948 mb, and I believe the 12Z Euro showed Laura getting down to 930mb as it approached the coast.
High tide is at 1:31am CT. And not only is 1:31am CT at high tide (pretty close to landfall time), but looking at the month of August, this is the 3rd highest high tide overall, just slightly behind during the early morning hours on the 28th/29th. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/n...ur&datum=MLLW&interval=hilo&action=dailychart
Anything west of the center of circulation wouldn't be as bad as the winds would be pushing water out. East of center and it's already pushing water in before it makes landfall. That plus a high tide us the surge
Freeport and San Luis Pass are southwest of Galveston and Houston; a storm whose center made landfall there would send the right front quadrant with the highest storm surge right at Houston and Galveston. It's about where the 1900 hurricane made landfall. Right now, the center of Laura is forecast to landfall just on the Louisiana side of the border, so the worst storm surge will be near Cameron, LA.