Some people are starting to say Hurricane Floyd track from 1999 where it turns more northerly through the Bahamas, but a little more to the west, allowing for a landfall in coastal Georgia or South Carolina
Gonna let this play out till the 8pm update when it should be near Puerto Rico. Too much instability in the models.
FWIW, my dad works with the Air Force and he has always followed the NOGAPS model as the one to go by and that one has it going east of Florida possibly hitting the tip of Carolina.
this would be a bad time to mention the euro model(which has been the best so far in 2011) skimming Florida as a 972 cane and then slamming into Savannah as a 9...gulp..52 cane Sam has a good read on this storm it seems, the noonish models all looked well east but then the 2 pm models had...well really bad for south florida... does seem to be an eye forming, the wise folks at storm2k.org are debating eye/dry intrusion feature...that is a very good website for discussions with pro mets and rank amateurs on active storms http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewforum.php?f=59
Yep. potential energy along that carolinas is off the charts. Rapid growth is possible if it does get close to the carolina coast.
Coming into range on the San Juan radar http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=JUA&loop=yes
39 MPH sustained out of St. Thomas. Radar almost looks like the center is jogging slightly to the south, though I'm sure that is probably temporary. NHC forecast continues to lag behind the model consensus, I imagine the next update (8pm or 11pm) will move the center of the mean range off shore from Florida.
St. Thomas just hit 68 MPH with a wind gust, should be a hurricane very soon. Models continue to move eastward, this could quickly become an Outerbanks storm with little impact on the SE US other than riptides.
Then again supposedly the pressure reading out of Bermuda were higher this afternoon than expected so we might see a more westerly track.
i think NHC has the track pretty much on the money still until it hits florida, think it will be headed more N at that point and not NNW...there is really nothing that could make this thing recurve off the US coast right now
up 10 mph, down 4 mb from the 5 PM position and slowing down to 15 mph forward speed, still moving wnw
You can have a hurricane party with Dbl & Cyn with the bonus being they are both sturdy enough to provide you protection from the storm. I'm supposed to be in Orlando doing a training for clients on Thurs & then headed to Clearwater for meeting Fri through next Thursday. Was going to fish & chill at beach this weekend. Fuck this storm!
yeah well I havent seen my girlfriend in a month and she is supposed to fly in Friday fuck this storm
I'd wait a few more hours to confirm it but no a landfall in Florida is probably not on the table. Might get very close, but will likely stay off shore.
I think the center has reformed a bit north of St. Croix, will probably skirt the SE coast of Puerto Rico before crossing the island.
Yep but even I know do not know what the mountains the Dominican and Haiti with possibly Cuba are going to do it. I am holding off until tomorrow afternoon before I really start looking at this storm and potential destinations.
our old psu alum Bastardi is tweeting that this will just miss florida and nail South Carolina with the strongest storm there in a decade
The weather machine is up and running. They definitely want it to hit Florida so it will. Every 4 years we get some hurricane or another.
Cantore can bunk at my place. I actually love when hurricanes hit (except Charley, that sucked real bad for me), but on this occasion I hope it turns away from FL.
bastardi is a media hound, he always wants to make bold statements like that and his storm predictions are always near major cities...that being said, he is right every so often...here are his latest tweets BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Note: I am further west in the Bahamas BUT EAST OF FLA without FLA landfall 1 minute ago BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi HWRF (off Dr Ryan Maue's site) pretty close to my track and intensity as per Weatherbell posts. coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/… 2 minutes ago BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Partial eyewall forming nw of St Croix radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph… 39 minutes ago BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Weatherbell post has painstakingly outlined reasons all along for why this threat was southeast, not gulf, along with intensity ideas 43 minutes ago BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Expect track to be midway between Floyd ( 99) and Cleo ( 64) for FLa as worst of the hit is further north 43 minutes ago BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi My track is just east of FLA with strongest hit in the Carolinas since Isabel in 2003. System looking more like Floyd to me 44 minutes ago BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Irene 17.8 65.0 995 mb... Hurricane conditions may develop on Puerto Rico tonight as storm is intensifying.
I have a sick tendency to root for every hurricane to hit where I live. Thought I would have grown out of that by now. Oh well.
You ever have one absolutely destroy where you live? My dad lost every possession in his home after Charley, that was when I stopped rooting for landfalls where I live.