Like you said, you do you. The great thing about technical analysis is it works until it doesn't. And then the story gets retrofitted: "Oh this was an A-B-C movement, but it was really an A-B-C-D-E movement, so I was actually still right" Unless you have inside information or are trading low volume securities, the market is pretty efficient. The best data proven strategy for an information outsider is to dollar cost average investments in low cost index funds and adjust the portfolio allocation based on your age.
I don't like TA because it only has one way of being correct. Like the people who care about moving averages.
If you aren't convinced we are about to start seeing record defaults and that a V shaped recovery is still possible...I just had a business broker reach out to me (they sent a prospectus 3 weeks ago and we never talked again) and offer a 27% reduction in sales price (<2x multiple now) with minimum of 50% seller financing as a starting point in negotiations. This is a broker notorious for not structuring deals and doing 0 % seller financing historically. Them reaching out to offer that hand of cards unsolicited is INSANE and speaks volumes to the hemorrhaging we are about to witness
v shaped as in we’re about to dive to the bottom, or V shaped like we already did and now are headed back?
I've been getting hammered on my shorts the last several sessions. Pretty much a lock that I'm not going to end in the read on all of them. Thankfully, I've been "scalping" gains day trading UCO to offset those losses. I'm almost certainly a "day trader" now with Schwab. Looking forward to the upcoming margin call.
I’m just excited to see how all this plays out honestly. I’ll either make some quick money and get in at the low, or I’ll miss the low, learn some good lessons and just catch on the way up. The lessons may be more valuable long term, but sure would be great if the former
BoA just sent me an invitation for a 3 month payment deferral. I have no intention of staying in this house long enough to pay it off anyways. My pay has been cut in half but I'm still making more than 2x monthly expenses. Is there any reason not do this? Could I do this and make payments instead directly against the capital instead of interest?
If you’re able to make the payments, I wouldn’t do it. You’re going to have. 3 months of accrued interest added to your deferral.
If I sell long before its still a negative? No way to pay directly against the capital now? When you start to realise that you have no idea how the largest investment you've ever made works.
I'm at about an 80% hit rate on 30 or so trades this week but it's only translated to about a 4% gain on that capital. Fucking tough out here. I'm getting tired of just staring at charts all day.
I'm too stupid to figure this out. 1 $95 put on ZM expiring 4/17 premium of $2.50. If the share price is $80 on 4/17 and I exercise, do I have to have the margin to buy all 100 shares in and out?
two week check in ALK @$26.65 $29.14 SYY @$35.55 $47.25 VIAC @$11.12 $15.79 DAL @$21.56 $23.23 OXY @$9.67 $15.56 USFD @$11.85 $18.08 PCG @$8.83 $10.90 EMR @$38.43 $52.10 HON @$111.50 $139.25 WY @$13.32 $19.46 WFC @$26.87 $30.28
No. Options are cash settled, meaning you only exchange the net. In your example, you’d shell out $250 when you buy the option contract (100 shares per contract times $2.50 premium). When you exercise the option, which can be done at any point up to expiration, you receive $1,500 because the strike price exceeds the exercise price by $15 at the time of exercise (($95 strike minus $80 exercise) times 100 shares per contract. At the time of exercise, you do not pay $8000 and get paid $9500.
The markets had another strong rally yesterday, with the Dow approaching its target high. The large cap index finished with a gain of 780 points, at 23,434. The high for the day was 23,513. The NASDAQ and SPX were up 204 and 91 points, respectively. Volume on the NYSE was low coming in at 89 percent of its 10-day moving average. Once again, I found it strange that the volume was relatively low on a day when the Dow had such a large point gain. There were 7 new highs and 6 new lows. The market appears to be in a short-term rally phase within a strong decline. Yesterday, the Dow formed an inside day where the high and low were within the range of the Tuesday’s session. Inside days sometimes mark the end of a rally phase, so Major Wave B up could be nearing completion. We’ll see. Once Major Wave B up completes, another crash wave (Major Wave C down) should begin. This wave should see the Dow trade back down to the 17,000-18,000 level, with 12,000 to 13,000 possible if Major Wave C down extends. The final trading day before the Easter Holiday is usually positive. My indicators suggest that the market could begin to weaken later today and continue into next Tuesday. If the short-term indicators turn negative, I’ll look to establish a ‘trial’ position in DXDs. The market timing indicators were Neutral after yesterday’s session. Strangely, the Dean’s List turned Negative after yesterday’s 780 point rally. The Tide remains neutral. The Sector Ratio strengthened to 12-12 Neutral after yesterday’s session. The Strong List was led by Material, Telecoms, Semiconductors, Utilities, and Healthcare. The Weak List was led by Media, Service, Banks, Autos, and Leisure. There were NO CHANGES to the Model after yesterday’s session. The Model remains heavily invested in cash with a few shares of UCO, the ETF for Crude Oil. There was a report yesterday that Russia could be close to reducing the production of Crude Oil. If this happens, we could see a nice move in UCO. Gold (GLD) fell 1.39 points yesterday to 154.65. The past three days of trading on the ETF have formed the Blade of a small Hockey Stick. If so, gold should begin to move higher once the Blade completes. It’s possible that Wave 2 up in Bonds is either complete or nearing completing. If the short-term indicators turn positive on TBT, the Model will buy a ‘Trial’ position in the ETF today and look to add to the position once the Daily’s turn positive.
Thanks. In that same scenario, if the share price is $100 at 4/17 the put is worthless, correct? Just expires? I can't figure out yesterday why it gained 40% value when ZM was up 4%
remember when -160 would have been an oh shit moment. Now it’s like ho hum, light day might as well turn off the tv.
Do we think we're past the bottom on CCL or is there another drop coming? I can't imagine this is already recovering.
I keep thinking the same thing, but it’s important to note that CCL dropped 82% from Jan 18 to March 17, so the feeling could be just that it was oversold. If that’s the case, we could have already hit bottom even if CCL hovers in this sub $15 range for a long time
Guys you’ll be excited to know that I checked out IV AND daily volume on my last option before I just blindly purchased. I’m checking out yachts now.
6 million file for unemployment and the fed announces another 2 trillion in easing and we have a 500 point swing. Crap Crap Crap. Earnings start next week and there is a 3 day weekend this was setting up to be a bad day. Crap Crap Crap
I said it before, but I just started a TD Ameritrade account and buying stocks in January. I literally do not remember that. If we aren't +/-3% or more on any given day, I'm bored.
holding UCO, TBT, DXD and SPXS. have taken hits on the inverses the past 3 days but keep holding out hope that we have to drop. It looked like we were going to finally have that day today. Get out or ride it over the weekend on the inverses?
What do you think will be the leading factor for this next drop? Unemployment numbers? Q1 Earnings?The news on the virus (and thus the economy reopening) should really only get better from here. Fed keeps unloading more and more money. I am struggling to see how we suddenly have a massive drop but obviously everyday is mayhem.
I'm holding 3x inverse etfs that are just getting hammered. With the decay factor I don't think I'll ever get out of the red, even with a huge drop next week. While I probably should hold UCO, I'm having too much fun day trading it.
Obviously all this easing and stimulus is just kicking the can down the road right? Eventually this shit is just gonna fall off a cliff bc COVID isn't going away anytime soon.