Futures reversing may as well crash it 15% now into the close and rebuild from there. My GS puts would like that as well.
Type in /ES or /ES00 in your chart...it's the futures contract for the S&P 500. And here comes the battle. They really do not want to go under 303 today. If we close under that we could drop a lot more this week.
Anytime I sell a stock for profit early, I try to remember the quote from JP Morgan: “I made a fortune getting out too soon.” Lock up a profit and don’t worry about what could’ve been.
PROFESSOR'S Mid Day Update s for Wed Jun 24, 2020 Here's where I am after today's decline on the Dow. At this point, I still don't know if the decline is the real deal.....the start of Wave 3 down. Today's decline could easily be corrective wave 'b' within the a-b-c move toward 26,600+ The thing I'm paying closer attention to is the HUI. Just a few minutes ago, the HUI traded down to Monday's early low near the 33.34 level. That level is the neckline for a small H&S pattern that IF broken, should send prices even lower to test the 260 level, which is the neckline for another larger H&S Pattern. If the 260 level is broken, the HUI should be headed a lot lower, perhaps as low as 220. That's what I'm watching. h Also, The Model just bought a 'trial' position of 800 shares in DXD, the inverse ETF for the Dow. Price paid for the DVDs was 19.20. I also bought a small position in SPY July 18 Puts with a price of 200 paying $1.24 per contract for my own account.
I'm just confused because Spy doesn't have July 18 puts and the $200 July 17 puts are $0.14. $1.24 per can get you almost $300
Can I get the definition of moon? Gets thrown around all the time in here. We talking 2%, 25% or what?
Imagine a green bar growing out of your display up to the moon. As far as I know, the term "moonshot" has been around for quite a while and has no origins on reddit.
lol I know what the term means, I’m just saying for how often it gets used in this thread you’d think everyday is a +20% day or something. So I was just wondering what everyone’s personal meaning for it was.
The market plunged yesterday on moderate volume. The Dow finished with loss of 710 points, closing at 25,446. The NASDAQ and SPX were down 222 and 80 points, respectively. Volume on the NYSE came in at 99 percent of its 10-day average. There were 15 new highs and 12 new lows. The increase in new lows turned the Hi-Lo indicator negative, making our combination breadth indicator, The Tide, negative. It’s been over three months since The Tide has been negative. Yesterday’s decline was the Big Move predicted by Tuesday’s small change in the A-D oscillator. Because it was impulsive, it’s possible that the move was the start of Wave 3 down, a major crash wave within Wave C down of the Bear Market. However, we still don’t know this yet. That’s because the market timing signals for the Dow and NASDAQ are still mixed, and as long as the Dow remains above its 15 June low of 24,843, there’s still a possibility that the Dow could still rally back to the 26,700 level to complete Wave 2 up. Yeah, I know that 24,843 is still almost 600 points from current levels, but that’s one of the ways you tell if corrective waves are complete. Anyone who tells you otherwise doesn’t really understand technical analysis. You MUST see the market make a lower low, and right now that hasn’t happened yet. It will one the Dow breaks below 24,843. On the other hand, there are a few other clues that are telling us Wave 2 up has completed and Wave 3 down is underway. The first is the Market Timing Indicator for the Dow, which has turned negative generating a Sell Signal. The second is The Tide which I mentioned above. Joining these are the Sentiment and yesterday’s BIB CHANGE in the Sector Ratio. First, let’s talk about sentiment. Yesterday’s IIA survey of investment advisors was the highest since the week of February 12-18 just before stocks crashed. The reading showed Bullish Advisors at 57.3 percent, the highest since level since 21 January. Now a high percent of Bullish Advisors is not unusual by itself, because these guys tend to remain bullish. But when you see the percent of Advisors rising when the markets are falling…well, that’s worth paying attention to. Also, students MUST understand where they are. It’s not like we don’t have other signs. Remember, yesterday’s decline followed Tuesday’s gap open, so from a technical perspective, the markets made an “Island Reversal” pattern yesterday. These candlestick patterns are almost always found at major turning points…. like the completion of a Wave 2. So, there’s that too. But the thing that really got my attention was the Sector Ratio. It fell to 12-12 Neutral after yesterday’s session. If you have been following the Ratio, you know that it was one of the first indicators to signal the start of the Wave 2 corrective rally. The Ratio stayed heavily positive since the rally began, supporting the rally. So, by turning 12-12 neutral after yesterday’s session, at the very least, we need to pay attention. The combination of all the above was enough for the Model to establish a ‘trial’ position in DXDs. I believe the odds are above average that Wave 3 down has started, so I want something sort or inverse on. But it’s still early. The Market Timing Indicators for the Major Indexes are mixed with the Dow Negative and the NASDAQ still Positive. The Dean’s List is Neutral while the Tide has turned Negative. Again, the Sector Ratio has turned 12-12 Neutral. The top 5 strongest Sectors were Household Products, Cap Goods, Materials, Computers and Retail. The List is telling us that consumers are staying home, buying toothpaste and toilet paper, and ordering things for their homes online. Hmm, seems a lot like what I’ve been doing. The Weak Sector List was led by Telecoms, Banks, Food, Insurance, and PharmaBio. If the market begins to head down, I would expect these weak sectors to lead the way. With yesterday’s purchase, the Model currently holds 800 shares of DXD, the 2X inverse ETF for the Dow (DIA), 400 shares of DUST and a lot of cash. It continues to look for opportunities to buy shares of inverse index ETFs. These purchases could begin within the next few days, but I'd really like to see the NASDAQ (QQQ) generate a sell signal. Gold and the miners fell slightly yesterday. GLD dropped 0.58 cents to 165.9. It’s possible that gold had broken out of its Bullish flag pattern and is about to rally to the 1,900 level as Wave 3 up unfolds. The miners are a different story. In recent Bear Markets, the miners have had tendency to follow stocks down as gold rallied. So, the current pattern on he short -term bars needs to be watched. As I mentioned in yesterday’s update, the HUI has developed two small H&S Patterns that if broken should send prices significantly lower. The levels to watch for a break are 272 and then 258-260. Both levels form the neckline of small H&S patterns that IF broken, should send prices significantly lower. That’s what I’m doing. h
Why doesn't he say how much cash the computer has. Instead he says "a lot of cash". Also, some days he posts his winnings/losses, and others he doesn't. Does he post this more transparently on his site?
No, If you go back a day or two he has the cash amount. At the end of the year he does post what the annual return was over a the 12 past months. I think last year was like 30%.
So I guess 303 is the critical point now. Just stuck there since yesterday. Jerome has me nervous about buying more puts.
It is also only like $40 per month and I have made way more than than the fee from reading the blogs so to me its worth it. Even the scalp trading class which was like $250 more than paid for itself and I had no clue how to read technicals before taking that class. It was a series of 4 1 hour videos. I was able to share them with Stagger Lee and i think he found them educational and beneficial as well. He has been pretty accurate as well. I cashed out in mid Feb when he said a big drop was happening and i have been riding the waves when he says to get in. When he says stay out I scalp.
So I blindly bought 06/19 calls on FSLY based on your original post. Bought on 5/27, out on 6/1 for nearly 4x and hadn’t looked at it since. Just checked and had I held til the 19th it would’ve been more like 9x. I cant fault myself for selling but do wish I’d rolled the win into some July calls. Thanks for the tip by the way.
Id assume it’s pretty vague because it’s a “model”, it reminds me of the gambling guys that just refer to things in “units”. Not saying that voids the validity of the guys write up but probably more universal/easier to follow for everyone keeping it vague.
Calls small hedge thru the end of this week. Will dump quick if they double unless accompanied by volume.