Fisker going public at $2.9B valuation. Aren’t they the ones whose cars caught fire?? I thought they were belly up a few years ago
Just watched Closing Bell from today so I could watch the 400 point drop that happened in the span of 60 minutes. Spoiler We are fucked
With your bearishness are you up over this bull run at all? I know you hedge pretty strongly with volatility
Which bull run? To me there have been a handful this year I am +35% since jan. Total portfolio. In the play account up over 200% but that one is obviously a smaller % of my total investment portfolio and one I am much more aggressive to the short. The larger dollars are mostly on the side lines.
Premarket has taken a pretty big turn for the red in the last hour. DOW positive by a few points but nasdaq down 1%
Spoiler The markets staged another strong rally early yesterday, then gave it back in the afternoon session. The Dow rose to the 26,639 level, which was slightly above the 26,500 level I talked about in the WSR. Then once that target level was hit, it turned around giving back all but 11 points of the gain to finish at 26,085. The intraday reversal produced a “Shooting Star’ candle stick pattern often seen at important tops. The thing about Shooting Stars is that they often turn into Island Reversals, another reliable reversal pattern, so we’ll have to see what happens today. The NASDAQ and SPX also had potential reversal days, closing down 227 and 30 points, respectively. Volume on the decline was a lot heavier than what we’ve been seeing during the past week, coming in at 106 percent of its 10 day average. This might not seem like much but compared to the extremely low volume (80-85 percent) we’ve been seeing, it’s a lot. Also, the important thing to note was that the high volume occurred on the downside. There were 119 new highs and 6 new lows. While yesterday was an important day from a candlestick perspective, it didn’t produce any important changes to the market timing indicators. The Timing Indicator for the Dow remains Neutral while the indicator for the NASDAQ remains Positive. The Dean’s List and The Tide are Neutral. For today’s session, I’m gonna stick with what I said in the WSR, …that students should understand that once Wave 2 completes, possibly within days, Wave 3 down of Major Wave 3 down should begin. This set of waves should be a powerful decline that drops prices below the 23,000 level. By the time all five waves of the sequence are complete, the Dow should be trading below the 18,000 level. The VTI rose to 60.56 after yesterday’s session with a 2-period RSI at 66.86. The VTI will need to turn lower before I add any inverse shares to the Model Portfolio. By continuing to rise, the VTI is telling me it’s still too early to get aggressive. BTW, with this week being options expiration week and seeing the VTI with a high-neutral reading of 60+, there's a good possibility that any Big Move in the markets will be delayed until next week. Options expiration week is usually Bullish, but the moves tend to be small. Also remember, for any large down trend to begin, the VTI will need to move below 30 and right now its still above 50. So, after yesterday's session, the thing I want to see now is a five wave decline on the short term bars for Wave 1 down followed by a three wave a-b-c retracement for wave 2 up. This down-up action will likely take 3-5 days to develop. If this happens, I’ll go to full Red Alert as Wave 3 down of Major Wave 3 down is likely right around the corner. Students should also watch for any impulsive action now to the downside, as it would increase the odds that Wave 3 down is underway. The Sector Ratio stayed at 19-5 Positive after yesterday’s volatile session. Students should watch for a major change to the ratio within the next few days to confirm what we’re seeing from the reversal candle stick patterns. The top 5 Strongest Sectors yesterday were Material, Autos, Semiconductors, Cap Goods, and Household Products. The top five Weak Sectors were Energy, Banks, Leisure, Service, and Telecoms. The Model continues to hold 1,200 shares of TWM, 1,600 shares of DXD, 400 shares of DUST, and a lot of cash. It continues to look for opportunities to buy shares of inverse index ETFs. The Model will become aggressively negative if the Dow falls below the 25,000 level. Gold rose, but the miners fell on Monday, following stocks down. This is something I will be watching during the next few day as I want to see if this ‘following stocks’ vs. ‘following gold’ relationship continues. If it does, now that the HUI has reached its upper trend line, it should continue to fall. My target for the HUI remains near or below the 240 level. That’s what I’m doing. h [\spoiler]
Sold my Disney Puts from 3pm yesterday for 50+% return. Made back what I had lost on previous Disney puts.
I think it would be more productive if I stepped outside and set my money on fire instead of doing any this investing stuff. None of this makes sense or reacts the way it should
I too am up 50% and I am just torn. I really want to sell and get back what I lost on my IWM put that expires this week.
Being super heavy in tech the last two days has stunk. Trying to remember how good it was the last month though lol. Guess I should be buying this “dip”?
Bought some FSLY calls yesterday “on the dip”. Lost a quick 42% on that one and abandoned ship this morning, immediately bought a put in FSLY instead, and now that’s up 150% if at first you don’t succeed, panic and change course and get extremely lucky.
One industry that I feel is being neglected is the home building industry. The Lennar’s, Pultes, Hortons of the world are continuing to report strong sales and traffic, but don’t see much publicity surrounding it and the accompanying building retail yards that supply them.
Home improvement in general is doing well. I work for a privately owned company that does outdoor cooking And sells at Lowe’s, Menard’s, Ace etc, and we are waaay up this year, after 3-4 years of declining sales no less
I work for a wallboard company and we are doing fine right now. Normal sales. Only April was really down, with a little into May.
I’m a Partner in a Recruiting Firm and our top revenue practice this year is Construction- ahead of Life Sciences, Tax, Banking, Finance. Usually a decent indicator of market trends. At least in those spaces anyway.
I consult for energy infrastructure projects. Both of my clients have major backlogs. As long as liquidity is at these levels, industrial construction will perform well.
Certainly looks like they are well positioned to be the first company to get a vaccine to market. Starting Phase 3 trials in two weeks. Goal of having safety and efficacy results by Thanksgiving.
"Someone just purchased 20,000 straddles on $JPM $100 strike with expiration date Sep-18-20 for a premium of $27M."
Someone spent $27,000,000 to buy 20,000 JP Morgan $100 puts for September AND 200,000 JP Morgan $100 calls for September. Here's what their final profit/loss will be if they hold until expiration.
So it is just a massive bet that J.P. Morgan is going to have a massive move with the big bet that it moves up drastically?
Is it true it’s more just a general development of antibodies, not specifically to fight against COVID? I’ve seen that in some places.
Hard to get the timing right in this game, but every once and a while it happens. Today was that day for us.
Doesn't matter if it moves up or down. Just that it moves a lot. 15% in either direction would be break-even, so for that risk they're expecting much more
That I am unsure about. We should know more in the coming weeks. Johnson & Johnson is starting their Phase 3 vaccine trials in August. Pfizer too. Hopefully Gilead’s remdesivir treatment gets green lighted sometime in the next month or so.
FWIW id be very surprised if someone with that kind of access to capital places this trade in isolation. Much more likely it’s part of a multi-trade scheme done by a hedge fund that’s focused on a much more narrow bet / outcome and the JPM bet is just one leg of the structure. Maybe I’m staying the obvious though.