Official Investing Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Joe Louis, Jul 12, 2010.

  1. NothingIsOT

    NothingIsOT Always down for the Kroger parking lot!
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    Ive gone back and forth on that. I’d go LUV, since it’s mostly domestic. DAL scares me given exposure to international travel and business travel. But you got to think consolidation, and best in breed are pros in DALs favor. I’ve dipped my toes in for day trades on both.

    Personally, I’m in on CCL for the homerun Hail Mary, vaccine trade. I bought at a decent base, and selling OOM 45 DTE $25 covered calls against it. May not work given the big debt loads CCL has taken on to stay afloat, but the volatility premiums on the calls really helping to reduce the base and my downside risk. Obviously I’m losing the massive upside if it gets above $25 on vaccine news rip, but I’m ok with a 50% capped upside with a reduced base downside.
     
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  2. NothingIsOT

    NothingIsOT Always down for the Kroger parking lot!
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    22% myself. 3.55 premium on an Oct 185 put (~10% downside) seemed like free money to me. Technically they hadn’t been below 185 since June 11 (that big June reckoning day that wiped out the reopen trade).
     
  3. southside

    southside Well-Known Member
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    I got a little ornery and took the 9/18 190 put. I would have let some ride but not with VXN still above 32. Closed it all out - it was a on a tight leash today regardless
     
  4. BP

    BP Bout to Regulate.
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    Makes sense I also threw in on NCLH. So we'll see.
     
  5. Smuggy

    Smuggy Well-Known Member

    For those of you planning for college with small kids - what is the best way to do that?
    Is it just setting up a 529 with the same company you have a 401k with and having them take X out of each paycheck?
     
  6. Stagger Lee

    Stagger Lee Crazy. Sexy. Cool.
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    I have a 529 for both my kids. It's fee heavy, but the tax-free gains are nice.
     
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  7. billdozer

    billdozer Well-Known Member
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    First I would see if your state gives you a state tax deduction to use theirs. If not, pick whomever you want.
     
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  8. Stagger Lee

    Stagger Lee Crazy. Sexy. Cool.
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    I also took out a small whole life policy on my boys, which I will take a non-recourse loan against to help pay for their college.
     
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  9. Ralph

    Ralph Well-Known Member
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    The answer depends on the state you're in. I live in GA, which has a state-run 529 that you'd need to use. Contributions are state tax-deductible up to a limit. So I just linked my bank account and have it pull from it each month.
     
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  10. Stagger Lee

    Stagger Lee Crazy. Sexy. Cool.
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    Sorry for being piecemeal -- my firm's 401(k) company (Lincoln Financial) doesn't offer 529s. I just make monthly ACH contributions through my 529 custodian (Northwestern Mutual). I'm happy to send you a name if you want to get in touch with someone.
     
  11. Stagger Lee

    Stagger Lee Crazy. Sexy. Cool.
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    How does that work if you move? Do you have to pay taxes on new gains? I know there has been a Supreme Court decision upholding that concept for payments to state pension plans.
     
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  12. billdozer

    billdozer Well-Known Member
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    No. You can keep it there or move it too your new program. Same as moving an IRA from Vanguard to Fidelity, for example. You can open a 529 under any state's program, you just wouldn't get a tax deduction unless they have that option and you file taxes in that state.
     
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  13. Ralph

    Ralph Well-Known Member
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    Per the GA site:
     
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  14. Smuggy

    Smuggy Well-Known Member

    Thanks. I might follow up with you on this after I do a little more research.
    I'm in Tennessee and we already don't have state income tax so not sure how it works here.
     
  15. Stagger Lee

    Stagger Lee Crazy. Sexy. Cool.
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    I'm in Texas. No income tax here either. I didn't know until just now that some states with income taxes require you to use their 529 plan
     
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  16. billdozer

    billdozer Well-Known Member
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    If I was in Tennessee where I didn't get a tax deduction for my 529, I'd pick something like Fidelity. Less fees and more options.
     
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  17. billdozer

    billdozer Well-Known Member
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    They don't require you too, but it would be stupid not to use it. I get to deduct all of the 529 money I contribute each year off my state income taxes.
     
  18. construxboy

    construxboy xenForo is the new TMB
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    In NC the program sucks and the tax benefits are nil so I have both of mine in the Utah plan. It's outstanding.
     
  19. construxboy

    construxboy xenForo is the new TMB
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    Assume you are in SC?
     
  20. billdozer

    billdozer Well-Known Member
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    Yes. So no appreciable limit on state tax deductions.
     
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  21. Oranjello

    Oranjello Well-Known Member
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    Closed out at 107% (in the money)
     
  22. HuskerGuy99

    HuskerGuy99 Above Average Member

    SPY clocking in at 90M volume total for the day. Total volume actually trending down since the first big down day last week. Today's gap-up is prime example why it's hard to hold weekly options overnight during a correction. This could be a one day bounce off 50 day moving averages or it could be a sign that the correction is over. As for end of day selling today, I think it was more of a Wednesday option expiration deal. Max pain for SPY options expiring today was 340. It seems they have been pulling these stunts more lately.
     
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  23. Baseballman86

    Baseballman86 Well-Known Member

    Got one DKNG call expiring next Friday that I plan to keep through the weekend. My high level of analysis figures first weekend of NFL should be good
     
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  24. Hawks11

    Hawks11 The arsonist has oddly shaped feet
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  25. ohhaithur

    ohhaithur e-Batman
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    Not like stocks follow logic anymore but how is that not priced in?
     
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  26. Hawks11

    Hawks11 The arsonist has oddly shaped feet
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    I think some of it is priced in, but I was surprised to see the NBA numbers. First-round viewership increased 12 percent compared to last year. More people watching likely means more wagers placed on the game.
     
  27. HuskerGuy99

    HuskerGuy99 Above Average Member

    40% out of BA weekly calls in the first 10 minutes and I'm probably done for the day unless I see a good setup in PEP. DXY crashing again. Market seems safe for now...
     
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  28. HuskerGuy99

    HuskerGuy99 Above Average Member

    That actually sounds like a sell signal lol.
     
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  29. Dale Doback

    Dale Doback Well-Known Member
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    Those of you who did Oracle calls, are you holding through earnings?
     
  30. Fusiontegra

    Fusiontegra My life is dope and I do dope shit.#SparedByThanos
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    Recently, this has been a horrible idea. Play the run-up, sell before earnings.
     
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  31. HuskerGuy99

    HuskerGuy99 Above Average Member

    It does not seem safe now. lol

    DXY bouncing hard and volatility complex all shooting up.
     
  32. ScFan27

    ScFan27 Well-Known Member

    nope. Sold out of my position, my strike was $61 and I paid $0.60. I sold for $0.56. Not happy with the result but better than holding and expiring worthless
     
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  33. Fusiontegra

    Fusiontegra My life is dope and I do dope shit.#SparedByThanos
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    EU/UK news wrecked us for a bit this AM

    Stupid global economy
     
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  34. BP

    BP Bout to Regulate.
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    Buffet and Salesforce committing to buy $250 million each of Snowflake stock.
     
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  35. Sportfan

    Sportfan From Six to Dumptime

    My folks are looking for some less volatile options than index ETFs/funds.

    I was reading about corporate bond ETFs or the more dividend producing specific ETFs like VIG. Any advice would be appreciated.
     
  36. billdozer

    billdozer Well-Known Member
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    I would say a target date fund or Life Strategy fund (https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/lifestrategy/#/) would be an option. Vanguard also has funds like Wellington/Wellesley that are managed funds with higher bond ratios.
     
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  37. ScFan27

    ScFan27 Well-Known Member


    My opinion but I’d stay away from bond etfs. Sure the expense ratio is close to nothing but you pay for what you get. Passive management in the bond market is dangerous and I would suggest hiring an active manager for fixed income. I used to work at lord abbett and their fixed income funds are best in class with fairly lower expense ratios.
     
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  38. Fusiontegra

    Fusiontegra My life is dope and I do dope shit.#SparedByThanos
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    Failure of the corona bill...drop incoming.
     
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  39. Baseballman86

    Baseballman86 Well-Known Member

    I’m selling them all by Monday/Tuesday at the latest, not sticking around for any covid related news. If they jump overnight I’ll sell them all tomorrow.
     
  40. Fusiontegra

    Fusiontegra My life is dope and I do dope shit.#SparedByThanos
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    Fuck everything.
     
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  41. poetictrojan

    poetictrojan Well-Known Member
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    Low Vol ETFs have seriously underperformed over the last few years both on upside capture and downside protection. They are advertised as safe stock funds but were near the bottom of all funds back in the spring. Well diversified equity holdings in the right proportion vs. bond holdings is the best away for them to protect themselves. I agree with above that bond funds are easy to find that provide alpha vs ETFs and Lord Abbott is solid. Biggest key would be to lock in what their largest loss they would be comfortable with would be and pick an equity percentage that aligns with that. Target date funds can be an option but be aware they are set very conservative on purpose. I have most clients who are using target funds pick one that is a little further out than their actual goal date.
     
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  42. Fusiontegra

    Fusiontegra My life is dope and I do dope shit.#SparedByThanos
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    I got damn good 9/18 call entries for FDX earnings next week, and SPY just shit all over them.
     
  43. ScFan27

    ScFan27 Well-Known Member

    might jump in on this, potentially wait and see how things open tomorrow
     
  44. HuskerGuy99

    HuskerGuy99 Above Average Member

    Market shaky right now. SPY volume 90M total thus far. Gapped-up only to plunge the rest of the day. DXY got hammered at open and then rocketed back up. Bonds pulled the same move. Two interesting things from today were the good-but-not-crashworthy volume during the sell-off and the breadth of the selling. About 95% of the S&P 100 was being sold. That is higher than it was last Thursday when the initial plunge started. So just about everything is being sold but not to a high enough degree that inspires real fear. I guess we wait again for tomorrow's action to tell more. From a probability standpoint, we are now beyond the 1 standard deviation move down for the week, so the safe play is actually up. I couldn't pull the trigger on that one.
     
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  45. southside

    southside Well-Known Member
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    I think we are getting ready to make another move up.

    dollar looks to be consolidating to move down, gold is consolidating aggressively with falling volatility. Very bullish for a move there which would imply the dollar crash is about to continue.

    nasdaq vol down three days in a row even with the down move today
     
  46. Smuggy

    Smuggy Well-Known Member

    Appreciate the feedback yesterday from you and billdozer. Spoke with Fidelity today about setting something up. It’s a no-brainer.
     
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  47. CaneKnight

    CaneKnight Well-Known Member
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    It was a political stunt that had no chance of passing. It would be dumb if the market got hit because of that.
     
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  48. construxboy

    construxboy xenForo is the new TMB
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    2020: "Hold my beer"
     
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  49. pacey

    pacey Well-Known Member
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    Comments 091120 - Fri, Sep 11th, 2020 -:- 6 : 24 : 13
    The markets rose early, with the Dow gaining over 200 points. However, it was evident from the indicators that the rally had no fuel behind it and once it ran out of gas, stocks continued their down-slide. The Dow finished with a loss of 406 points, closing at 27,535. The NASDAQ and SPX finished down 222 and 60 points, respectively. Volume on the NYSE was moderate, coming in at 103 percent of its 10-day average. There were 57 new highs and 22 new lows.

    Yesterday’s decline in the Dow re-tested the 27,500 level (27,447actual low) for the second time. Several weeks ago, I mentioned that a break of this level would confirm that the Bear market is underway. That’s because the 27,500 level is where Wave 4 ended on 20 August and the final rally to a top began. It is also the level that now supports the right shoulder of a Major Head & Shoulders pattern with the 3 September high of 29,199 as the 'head'. If you subtract 27,000 from the 'head high', you get about 1,700 Dow points. If you then subtract 1,700 from the neckline at 27,500, you get a target of 25,800.

    In my previous comments, I had been using 26,600 as my initial target which was based on a Hockey Stick Pattern. But now that the H&S Pattern has formed, I can now lower the initial target to 25,800. Also, IF this happens, it will increase the odds for even lower prices, as other, larger patterns will come into play. For example, the 25,000 level is where the Bearish Rising Wedge for final Wave 5 up started on 11 June. This is an obvious target as Wedge Patterns usually end where they began.

    Anyhow, I wanted to give you something to watch today now that the Dow has approached 27,500. If you’ve been paying attention to what’s been happening during the past week or so, you know that the rallies and the declines are now making lower highs and lower lows. In other words, the market is changing character. During the rally since early April, the market was making higher highs and higher lows. Now it’s just the opposite. So, pay attention to the 27,500 level. A break of this level will likely send stocks reeling.

    Indicator Update: The Tide turned Negative. The Sector Ratio fell to 18-5 after yesterday’s session. My algorithm highlighted another 56 stocks as shorts.

    That’s what I’m doing,

    h