i scalped spce $17 calls for 20% with an expiry of 10/2 when it was around $16 at the end of last week it’s now at $19 and flying
Based on Hanks weekend post and the short term charts I think we do have a big give back as the day progresses. Better chance of a -300 point run than a +300 point run from here to close. Stagger Lee interested to hear what your short and mid term charts reading says. Divergence?
Friday Morning Post: After looking at yesterday’s data, there was a cluster buy program that came in during the last half-hour of trading. These buy programs suggest that some type of short-term bottom could be forming. When I look at the price action and pattern on the Dow, it too suggests that a short-term bottom might be at hand, which means wave 3 of Wave 5 down could be complete with wave 4 up next. Wave 4 up could take the Dow back to the 27,200-27,400 level. That’s about 400-600 points above current levels. Then once wave 4 completes, I would expect the Dow to resume its decline. My target for Major Wave 1 down, once all five waves of the sequence are complete, remains near or below the 25,600 level, with 25,000 a likely possibility. There were NO Changes to the Market Timing Signals after yesterday’s trading. Last night’s Sector Ratio strengthened to 18-6 Negative.
Saturday/Weekend Update: In Friday’s early Comments, I mentioned that a cluster buy program came in during the last half-hour of trading on Thursday. I also mentioned that buy programs like this usually have a positive impact on the markets, and in this case because of the pattern, it would likely lead to a Wave 4 rally between 400-600 Dow points. During yesterday’s trading, the Dow reached a high of 27,239 which was 424 points above Thursday’s close. The Dow finished with a gain of 359 points at 27,173. It was down 483 points for the week. The NASDAQ finished with a gain of 241 points and as up 120 points on the week. Yesterday rally was likely a corrective wave 2 or a 4 up within Wave 3 down of Major Wave 1 down. If it’s a wave 2, it might have another 100 points or so of rally left before it completes, and the next impulse wave down begins. I would use any rally on Monday to add to my short positions. Friday’s rally did nothing to change the overall negative patterns in place (Inverse H&S and Bearish Ending Diagonal). These patterns continue to suggest the Dow and the other major indexes should be trading significantly lower in the weeks ahead. The H&S Pattern has a downside target near the 25,700-25,750 level. The Bearish ED has a target just below 25,000. The previous Wave 4 down low in the Dow’s retracement rally that started on 23 March was 24,971, which makes it a likely target. The alternate to this Bearish outlook is that the current decline could still be a Major Wave 4 a-b-c decline. Like I said previously, I don’t give this scenario much of a chance given the impulsive nature of the decline we’ve seen recently and the Bearish indicators. A break below 26,600 would eliminate this Bullish possibility. I remain on Full Red Alert now that ‘neckline’ support in the indexes has been broken. The Market Timing Indicators for the Major Indexes remain Negative. The Dean's List and Tide remain Negative. Students should note the short length of the current Dean’s List. It's really short now. The Sector Ratio weakened during yesterday’s rally. It is now 19-5 Negative. This is further evidence that a significant decline is developing once the current rally completes. The five strong sectors were Service, Retail, Consumer Products, Transportation, and Household Products. So, toothpaste and toilet paper are back on the strong list. Remember what happened last February when investors started buying service and household products stocks? Hmmm? That was just before the Dow tanked. The top five weak sectors were Energy, Autos, Banks, Healthcare, and Financials. I would expect these sectors will lead the market down. The Model sold its 400 shares of DUST yesterday at 20.30. Going into yesterday’s session, gold was EXTREMELY oversold, and the pattern suggested that Wave 4 down in gold could be complete and that a Wave 5 rally would be next. When gold (the metal) hit my downside target near 1,860, there was no reason to continue to hold the inverse ETF. The Model continues to hold trial positions of 1,200 shares of TWM, 1,600 shares of DXD, 400 shares of DUST, 800 shares of QID, and $43,651 in cash. The Model will likely use some of the funds received from the sale of DUST to add to its shares of inverse index ETFs. On the other hand, IF the timing indicators on gold turn positive, and it appears that gold is indeed starting a lengthy Wave 5 up, the Model will consider buying a positive ETF for gold. Right now, with gold still in a negative pattern, with negative indicators, its too early to take a position in gold. The top of Wave 1 in the previous rally sequence for gold is at the 1,766 level. So, if gold continues to fall, it could have another 100 points of decline before it reaches that Wave 1 support. That’s way too much risk for me to be buying gold now, especially with a leveraged ETF. That’s why the Model will be focusing on inverse index ETFs for now. The patterns are a lot clearer. BTW, after looking at how the market performed in the two months prior to a presidential election (negative), I read an article published by Bob Prechter and others in 2012. Bob talked about how the performance of the stock market could be used to predict the results of Presidential Elections. I thought the results were extremely interesting, so I thought I would share them with you today. Bob and his fellow authors only looked at elections where the incumbent was running for re-election. They found that a lot of things like inflation, unemployment, and GDP don’t matter. I found this interesting because the last quarter of GDP that we have data for was down about 34 percent. None of the GDP data that Bob’s team analyzed got anywhere close to this negative number, so we’ll have to see if this outlying large number will impact his conclusions. Anyhow, what Bob found was that when the market was up over 10 percent in the three years the incumbent was President, he was re-elected. If it was down 10 percent, he lost. It was that simple. Further, if the market was up over 20 percent in the incumbent’s 3 prior years, he won in a land slide, with a landslide being defined as victory with more than 40 percent of the Electoral vote. The results had an 87 percent success rate. Maybe this is the reason President Trump spends so much time talking about the performance of the stock market. History suggests that it’s the performance of the stock market and NOT presidential polls, that is the only thing that matters. All this starts to get interesting as we approach the next Presidential election. That’s because when President Trump was first elected in November 2016, the Dow was trading at 17,883. So, a 10 percent increase over 3 years would be 19,671. This is the level that Prechter suggests would lead to the President’s re-election. A 20 percent gain, enough to ensure a landslide victory, again according to Bob, would occur if the Dow stays above 21,459. So, given the current patterns on the Dow and other indexes, which suggest a significant decline is coming in the months ahead, it will be interesting to watch these historical numbers as we move into November. That’s what I’m doing.
Definitely noticing something up with Friday and today's action. Volume up in the stocks I watch as they make large upside moves. BA and PEP both running hard right back to their pre-selloff levels. 95% of S&P 100 stocks are up on the day. Should be noted that I anticipated a rally + squeeze to these levels last week with 338.5 being the topside target, but this feels a little different. Do the big players know something about a coming stimulus? BA returning HUGE today. Possible running play this week. PEP also doing the same with earnings Thursday, but BA can run much higher and faster, so I am focusing on that this week.
Got a fill. You now have permission to blast off BA. Should have been more patient...could have got a 10% better fill if I waited. It touched 165.01 and then went up. Now just hope the market doesn't decide to shit the bed today.
lol wow. Heard some issues with NVDA's new graphics cards are popping up. Not sure how that would affect their stock as they seem pretty strong. Also, bailing on these BA calls if we close under 164.50 in 30 minutes. Not popping like I hoped it would. Will revisit in the morning if we don't start running.
Just seent it happen. BA also finally busted up. Damn, now I have to agonize about whether I want to hold overnight or not. Double gap-up for BA would probably mean good things for the market in general.
Comments 092920 - Tue, Sep 29th, 2020 -:- 6 : 25 : 22 The markets rallied hard again yesterday continuing the rally that started last Friday from extreme oversold conditions. The Dow finished with a gain of 410 points, closing at 27,584. The NASDAQ and S&P were up 204 and 53 points, respectively. Volume on the NYSE was low, coming in at 87 percent of its 10-day average. Large rallies on low volume are always suspect. There were 49 new highs and 10 new lows Yesterday’s rally was likely part of an a-b-c retracement for Wave 2 up. It was likely wave 'a' of the move. I expect the Dow to fall about 300-400 points from yesterday’s close in wave 'b' down before testing the 27,800 level in wave 'c' up. Then once wave ‘c’ up of Wave 2 up completes, the Dow should resume its decline toward the 25,000 level as Wave 3 down unfolds. The alternative is that because of yesterday’s late pullback, which could be considered a small wave ’b’, the Dow could continue to rally toward the 27,800 level without a significant retracement. However, because the Dow is EXTREMELY overbought now, with an RSI of 87.6 and the VTI showing NO Trend, I give this scenario significantly lower odds. I remain on Full Red Alert as the market works its way through the current retracement rally. The Market Timing Indicators for the Major Indexes remain Negative. The Dean's List remains Negative, but the Tide has turned Neutral. The current Dean’s List remains short. The major change to the indicators after two days of hard rally was in the Sector Ratio. It turned 17- 7 Positive. The top five strong sectors were Service, Retail, Consumer Products, Transportation, and Leisure. I did note that 11 of the Strong Sectors has RS ratings of 1 or zero, which tells me the strong sectors are not that strong and almost any down day could turn these sectors back to negative again. The top five weak sectors were Energy, Autos, Healthcare, Bank, and PharmaBio. There were NO CHANGES to the Model after yesterday’s session. The Model continues to hold trial positions of 1,200 shares of TWM, 1,600 shares of DXD, 800 shares of QID, and $43,651 in cash. The Model will likely use some of the funds received from the recent sale of DUST to add to its shares of inverse index ETFs. I used yesterday’s rally to buy back the DXD's I sold early last Friday and am now about 75-80 percent short with inverse ETFs (DXD, QID and SQQQ). I’m also waiting for my 30 minute Scalp Trading volume indicator on Apple (AAPL) to turn negative again before looking to re-establish my short in the stock. APPL closed at 114.97 yesterday. My target for the stock is 89, which is where the 200 day-moving average is currently located. BTW, if the volume indicator on AAPL turns negative, I will also look to buy a few shares of SQQQ, a 3X inverse leveraged ETF that tracks the NASDAQ-100. That’s what I’m doing.
I saw some divergence and bought a little bit of inverse ETFs into the close. I'm mostly just playing pivots right now.
I agree. Is the new Iphone going to be 5G? That would be the big reason to get it. Seems like less and less people upgrade every year these days. see more and more "older" phones these days.
Sometimes I wonder how much money Hank would have made in the past two months if he wasn’t such a pussy
He has fucked me this year. I had heavy inverse, market went way up to its aug highs and pulled out thinking he was nuts to keep those inverses, took a big loss. Then the market bounced back down and i bought back into the inverses again and it reversed. Basically my timing has been horrible. I have gone from up 30% this year to only like up 10% for the year in a month.
I trusted the gut and doubled down on the SLV calls. Paying off big time. Buying JD and Baba for the earnings run up is free money IMO. Holding (10) Baba $260 1.15.21c and (25) JD $70 1.15.21c. Do it
Hank: 12.20 Update - Tue, Sep 29th, 2020 -:- 12 : 21 : 26 With the Dow down about 200 points, I'm gonna take a few bucks profit ($1,7,66) on my inverse ETFs and move to the sidelines. I got the 'b' wave down I expected and now want to see what happens during tonight's Presidential debate.
The Fed's survey of U.S. Family Finances from 2016 to 2019. Of course 2020 will severely impact the results, but was positive all around otherwise. https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/scf20.pdf
Probably a good move. Didn't trade today because I had some things to do, but it looks a bit bull-flaggy on the short term charts. Wondering if this debate and all this stimulus talk is going to really put the shorts in some pain for the rest of the week. On another note, anyone see they increased the limit up/down to +/- 7% for overnight trade? What the hell are we supposed to think about that? Why would they do that?
I think this debate and stimulus uncertainty has some traders waiting. BA's volume was WAY lower today than yesterday.
Worst GDP numbers ever, Disney lays off 28,000 people, airlines say 100,000 lay offs if no stimulus today. ....futures turn green
You should know by now, the worse the news the greater the bounce. 1+1 does not = 2 in these times. Interested in HuskerGuy99 take at 10am this morning. I am thinking the first 30 mins will be telling. With the lighter volumes there should be some pent up volume coming out of the gate this morning.
Was just watching CNBC during lunch and saw Asana was going public via direct listing. Went to high school with the CEO who was already a billionaire from being a Facebook co-founder.
Got up near this and melted down. Hard to believe we are still green on the day. Out and back in on BA calls. Holding this one overnight on a gamble. Should have sold my initial calls at 171 as that has been resistance for it, so missed out on like an extra 50% profit after it pulled back earlier. Could have triple-dipped it today but got busy with some house stuff. Still thinking we may ride up this week to around 342 again, but we will see. This volatile action today probably shook some people.
Going for next week expiry starting today just because of how volatile stuff is. Usually I would have been in weeklies (and would have made a killing today if I did), but I'm aiming for 10/9 now and as usual looking to get out ASAP with profit.
You can def play both sides on it. Calls just a bit safer due to risk of BA ripping. That may change in a few weeks.