You know, I thought it was weird when BA popped latter half Friday. They had been melting it down to max pain every single Friday for options. Instead it ripped up $6. Now it's up over 10% today. Guess somebody knew about this vaccine in advance.
Everyone moving out of the Yen now it seems. DXY is shooting into the green at the same time. Only 82% of stocks in S&P 100 up at the moment despite the major move.
Don't worry, Hank says we are about to start a down rip once we hit 30K-30,500 HANK POST from Saturday The markets pulled back slightly on Friday. The Dow finished with a loss of 67 points, closing at 28,323. The large cap index was up 1,834 points for the week after being down 1,834 points the previous week. Amazing! Talk about volatility! The tech heavy NASDAQ was relatively flat on Friday, gaining 4 points. It was up 984 points for the week. Not much changed since Thursday’s update. The election is still undecided, but it’s starting to look like Vice President Biden is on the brink of victory. If the vote count continues in his favor, it appears he will get 306 electoral votes, which is the same amount that President Trump got in 2016. They called Trump’s victory a landslide back then, but somehow this election doesn’t feel like a landslide to me, even though it appears the Vice President is well ahead in the popular vote. Last week, I mentioned that the market usually rallies during the week of the election and then pulls back the following week. So far, we got the rally, and now the charts are suggesting some type of pullback. From a pattern perspective, the two scenarios I have been talking about prior to the election are still alive and have almost equal odds. I have to give the Bullish scenario a slight edge over the next few weeks, but because last week’s rally did not exceed the 12 October high, it’s still possible that the current rally is nothing more that minor wave 2 within Wave 3 down. In other words, nothing has changed or been resolved between the two scenarios. If the current rally is indeed minor wave 2 up, the rally should end near current levels and begin to decline hard next week. If the market doesn’t decline hard next week, it’s likely the Bullish scenario is taking place. In this scenario, the Dow should rally above the 30,00 level, with 30,300 possible. That’s about 2,000 Dow points from current levels. If this rally is occurring, the Dow should be close to completing minor wave 1 of Wave 5 up. So, in either scenario, Bullish or Bearish, the Dow should see some type of pullback next week and that will be important to watch. That’s because IF the pullback is corrective, it will likely be minor wave 2 within Wave 5 up. If the pullback is impulsive, it will likely be the start of Wave 3 down. An impulsive decline next week will change the odds in favor of the Bearish scenario. So, you can be sure I will be watching next week’s market action. It should tell us a lot about the future direction of this market. BTW, IF the action is NOT impulsive, and any decline is accomplished in a series of a-b-c moves, the Model will look for an opportunity to re-enter a position in the Q’s. One more thing that I want my students to understand. Even though I have been talking about a Bullish scenario, students should understand that it’s not that Bullish. Maybe 2,000 Dow points. Once this potential Wave 5 rally completes, the market should begin a significant decline…a Major Bear Market. The Corona virus is not only impacting the health of the American people, but it has also weakened the financial condition in the U.S. All the spending on stimulus has more than tripled the deficit to $3 trillion. And even though we saw great growth numbers last week out of Washington two weeks ago (33.1 percent), that can only be temporary. The fact is that federal debt as a percentage of GDP continues to rise and will soon exceed the old record high of 106 percent, a number that hasn’t been seen in over 75 years! Students should understand that this is serious stuff. It’s what caused EXTREME financial problems in Europe several years ago…recall the financial crisis in Greece, Spain, and Italy. I believe that once Wave 5 up completes, these EXTREME problems with servicing our debt will begin to surface, probably starting in early 2021. Once the euphoria in the markets driven by low interest rates and stimulus money wears off, stock prices will come back to earth. They must. Low interest rates motivate consumers to buy cars, houses, refrigerators now instead of in the future. Demand is pushed forward. That’s why the Sector List has been showing strength in Autos, Cap Goods and Consumer Products. People want to take advantage of the low interest rates. Also, the Fed’s balance sheet is now up to $7.1 Trillion, the largest on record. Almost $4 Trillion of the $7.1 Trillion is left over from the last financial crisis. The easy money provided by the Fed for the past 11 years is the primary reason equity prices have continued to rise since 2009. This is about to change. I believe the Fed will start reducing its balance sheet (selling) in early 2021 when the new President takes office. This selling will take significant amounts of money out of the American economy, which will hammer stock prices, and reduce the demand for autos, real estate, and most other big ticket items. This is the reason I remain cautious going forward, as I do not believe equity prices in my Bullish scenario are going to the moon. The ‘moon’ will likely be limited to the 30,000-30,300 level. The Market Timing Indicators for the Major Indexes are mixed. The Dow is Neutral, the NASDAQ has turned Positive. The Weekly Timing Indicators on the Dow are Neutral. The same indicators on the NASDAQ (QQQ) are Positive. The Dean's List and The Tide are Positive. The Sector Ratio improved to 18-6 Positive after yesterday’s session. The top 5 strong sectors were Retail, Semiconductors, PharmaBio, Cap Goods and Autos. The top five weak sectors were Energy, Real Estate, Computers, Media, and Foods. The Scalp Trading indicators on Gold (GLD) turned Positive on Friday. Because of this, I will be looking to establish a ‘trial’ position for the Model in gold early next week. I’m still not seeing the positive divergence that I would like to see at the start of a Wave 5 up. Without divergence, any rally will likely be modest. My current target for the metal is above the 7 August high of 2,072. On Friday, gold (the metal) closed at 1,951. There were NO Changes to the Model after yesterday’s session. The Model remains 100 percent in cash. The Model will likely remain in cash until the conflicting patterns are resolved. The key downside level on the Dow is the 30 October low of 26,144. The same key number for the NASDAQ is the 2 November low of 10,957. A decline below these lows would support the Bearish Scenarios. Be patient and continue to protect yourself. That’s what I’m doing. h The Model Portfolio is being shown for educational purposed only. The Buy/Sell actions in the Model Portfolio are made based on technical indicators that can and do change frequently and should NOT be considered as recommendations for trading an actual portfolio. Any gain or loss in the Model Portfolio should not be used to predict future performance of the Model.
Tried to scalp some pfizer overnight. Went from up $500 to down at least $300 while I can't login to tda
Yes. What's amazing to me is how they dumped tech and rotated into energy, travel, etc. overnight and then retail just double-fisted right back into overbought tech at the open anyway.
I have to say these valuations seem very high for setting record COVID #s. Seems ripe for a pullback. I did buy more NIO though, so I am not all bearish.
That's because i bought another 1000 shares. Well my order is hanging in the interweb somewhere. It will be interesting to see when and at what price point I actually get filled. I mean I bought at damn near open, got a confirmation but it is not showing in my Merrill account.
Wow AMD with a massive move in the past hour. Should have jumped on that pullback. SPY has 60M volume already :O Had 74M total all day Friday, including after-hours trading.
Just means they are no longer going up/down together. LI down big today, while NIO is up double bigly.
He’ll continue to predict it and one day, be it tomorrow or 3 years from now, we’ll hit it and he’ll claim victory.
It's the gift that keeps on giving. I bought back in Friday mid day. Nio and Plug have been on complete tears
Are you using TOS??? I was in 15 minutes before the open. It got laggy for about 5 minutes at open but fine since.
Was literally a penny off a fill for a +$20k trade in the last 30 minutes. On the positive side, at least I wasn't one of the people that just got absolutely hammered by that finish to the day.
Those retail got double-fisted today. And I'm back to wondering WTF is going on with the market. Bearish or bullish?
i don't normally fuck with biotech but I do know vaccines aren't usually highly profitable. you guys buying Pfizer and BioNTech or staying away? popped bigly today, wish I had some to sell.
I lost a fucking a lot today This morning I placed a bunch of huge buy orders to scalp. Didn't think any of them filled with Schwab being down when I placed them. None showed up as having been filled, and I did several duplicate orders as a result. I also put in stop losses that didn't register because I had no shares to sell when the orders were placed. This afternoon (several hours after I entered the buy trades that I didn't think filled), all the morning trades posted. I was immediately down like 10% when they posted. Ended up losing like $2,200. Trying to get Schwab to reimburse me, but I doubt it will.
That sucks. NIO was like that for me this morning. I bought 1000 didnt see the pending order or anything. Bought another 1000 and a pop up said this is like an order that was just placed proceed? I said no, went back looked at account, money there, looked at pending, nothing so I placed another 1000 buy. Well that wound up working out. 2000 shares and a good profit. Not filled at the price they shoudl have been had they been recorded when i hit enter but still a good day.
VVIX and the SPY options chain tipped me off in the last few hours. Wasn't really buying the rip because we were sitting at 80/20 advance/decline for a good part of the day. It just slowly decreased from the open. Sucks I got greedy with the fill on my lottos and didn't just sack-up the first time I thought about entering. Would have been a 50-bagger off the low that I was looking at, but I can't be too sure that I wouldn't have locked profit at 5-7x.
Another day like that and I'm gonna retire. SABR up over 40% today, took profits by selling half, multiple REITs up over 30%. Ended today one account +14.38% and the other +9.43%. Tech weighing me down.
Hoping NIO holds enough this morning so I can just get back out with a grand or two profit from yesterday. QID should pay well today.
What companies could benefit from the cold shipping of this supposed vaccine? Got to imagine some random companies that do the refrigeration
So far have not been burnt. Got out this morning with a good profit and then rebought a couple points lower. up a couple grand again. Also sold 20 covered calls on them that is doing well for me as well.
You talking about NIO? Playing some INTC calls right now as I noticed it had dipped way below the bottom Keltner. Think we may go up into tomorrow and then sell off again. At least everything except the NASDAQ. Looking at SPY 358-359 before pullback late tomorrow.
I can't tell if QQQ is going to make a run right now. QID set up real nice yesterday but I am thinking i need to get out now and take the winnings.