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Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Joe Louis, Jul 12, 2010.
Just enjoy having extra to contribute to your brokerage. Good problem to have.
Without a doubt. I hope I'm in the same position next year. Very fortunate.
Conor is a really good follow to talk about Markets and Macro stuff btw
I mean when you go to pretty much 50% online sales that'll improve margins.
They're also just understaffed. Easy to run good labor numbers when you never have enough people.
I know it’s a long play but edging closer to break even point has to feel good.
Yea overall I’m happy to have it here and holding for a super long time.
Really need to research my next sector, thinking lab processed foods but I feel like I might be too late or way too early.
not that anyone cares besides me, but Schwab has these new CRM shares I received last night as long term positions, so that’s nice.
went digging a bit in this thread for who here was making money selling covered calls but didn’t find exactly what I was looking for. Is it you or was there someone else?
Became a lot less profitable after March. Most of the talk was in our discord.
LCID went public
Q1 it was literally just:
Pick stock with high IV
Buy some quantity
Sell CC 30-50% OTM
thanks I was going to do the homework as to why the profitability went down but ya did it for me
The way most of these SPAQ mergers have went lately...... they usually drop off to below the SPAQ original prices in the weeks following.
If you want a good short term short…
yesterday portnoy posted on Twitter that there would be a huge announcement today that was maybe the biggest in barstool history
I’m like 90% sure it is them sponsoring a bowl game in Arizona
the stock went up like 3.5% yesterday based on that post
it’s down today in line with the general market
if I’m right snd that’s what he was teasing that made the stock pop I’m pretty sure it will be down tomorrow because that’s a nothing to PENN
7/30 $67.5 puts are under a dollar right now.
buy today and sell tomorrow after the announcement
Ok I’m now 99.9% sure that’s what is happening
Huge tech earnings!
I always sell CC out of the money 15%-20% depending on which are the most liquid with 45-60 days to expire. I close the position at 21 DTE or 50+% gain always
Anyone messed around with the Robinhood IPOs? Just got in on the DUOL IPO and I’m wondering what the rules are? I thought I had to hold it for 30 days but it’s giving me the option of selling now.
Looks like I’ll be adding to AMZN in the morning.
Idk tanked after earnings and I have fomo from not grabbing more shares earlier in the year
Yikes. This covid resurgence doesn’t feel right.
How is everyone playing this
PINS down 20%, added a few more shares.
I'm pretty sure you're allowed to sell immediately but if you do, they can limit your access to future IPOs. They want you to hold for the 30 days
I don’t understand why this is yikes? We are like a decent three hours of trading from all time highs.
Scott Minerd just came on saying he thinks we drop 10-20% from here.
Yikes in the sense that this new covid wave doesn’t feel right. Delta is slapping us around and we already threw out our best card on vaccines. The next move is flirting with masks and having people pull back on spending.
Earnings Multiples are stretched to begin with. There’s a 10% pull back on average every 20 months. We’re at month 17 give or take. What exactly is the next leg from here? More government stimulus? September is the worst month for stocks. I don’t see the upside, but I definitely see potential downside.
I want to invest, but I’m raising cash right now. I’ll hold off on making moves till mid September. Feel free to tell me why I’m wrong.
They called his ass out, 10-20% is nothing, he’s not some oracle. As you mentioned that’s gonna happen a ton during your investing timeline.
Rest of your post is you trying to fill a narrative. If you don’t want to invest that’s fine but trying to time a 10% pullback seems foolish to me if your goal is long term gains.
Quick edit: if you are simply talking about new capital then I understand being hesitant. If you are actively selling I just can’t see timing this being better than holding.
look at how the UK has trended with Delta, hospitalizations, deaths, etc
also lets just say where our current outbreaks are isolated are going to be in..lets say...not economic centers. you'll see increased vaccinations and mandates before anything derailing the economy again.
It’s “slapping around” unvaccinated, but hospitalizations and deaths are not increasing for vaccinated folk and that’s what really matters.
We may have a drop, I have a little side cash for such a thing but as soon as it does the Fed is going to come right back in to try and hold it all up.
Thoughts on this article? Like me, I know there are a fair amount of Boglehead-ish investors on this site.
a lot of assumptions baked in that don't apply to everyone, erases probabilistic risk assumptions for individuals, also some kind of silly macro economic assumptions going forward.
could be true, but you could change like 3 numbers and you'd make bank from a traditional 401k.
There are several arguments against this too. First, if you are to the point where you can max out the 401k, you can use the tax savings from pretax to help fund a Roth IRA or MBD Roth. Also, under the current tax law, you can withdraw ~$45,000 in the 10% bracket and over $100,000 and be in the 12% tax bracket. Although taxes may go up, they may not go up on the lower tax brackets. So someone saving so much has a good chance of being in those higher brackets while working.
But Roth is definately good when someone is early in their career and expecting to move into higher tax brackets. I did straight Roth for a long time, probably too much, to the point where my accounts were 75% Roth. I've now switched to maxing out the traditional and still doing Roth IRAs and some MDB Roth.
Interesting timing as I spent the weekend reallocating my 401k out of mediocre target funds and into vanguard admiral share funds.
For me the math seems obvious due to my current vs future tax rate, but I look at my parents who had a ton of money in their 401k in meh funds and wonder how much they left on the table the last 30 years. I know the article isn’t necessarily speaking to this, but I wonder how many people due to fees and being in below optimal funds leave a ton of money on the table.
a lot of people for sure. similar conversations here made me reassess which funds I was investing in for my 401k
I would guess a huge majority of people set their 401k into a target retirement x year fund and never adjust.
Yep this was me until this weekend, 401k hit six figures so determined I might want to care what’s in it. Options were fairly limited but the vanguard admiral shares seemed like my best option.
On a super positive early retirement note. I’ve now hit the ability to live off of 6% of my “nest egg” annually. This takes everything into account (inflation, taxes, etc) but requires a conservative lifestyle. Fortunately I’m in the prime of my income earning potential so I hope to quickly get that down to 4% and at a more enjoyable lifestyle. Let’s gogogogogo.
Edit: one thing that really holds me back is healthcare costs, I have a preexisting condition and it’s super tough to project what the market will look like for me over the next 25-30 years.
However some of these 401k providers also hype their "portfolio options" where all you do is select something like one of these:
Conservative to Moderate
Moderate to Aggressive
I did that for years before I decided to learn more and look into what was held in those options and found oh hey there are a bunch of funds in here with 1% expense ratios and shit so I fixed that
note: the 1.3% ER emerging markets fund has a lower return since inception than the 0.03% ER S&P500 index fund lol
medicare kicking in at 65 forces basically everyone but the quite wealthy to work until 65 or go no coverage and cross your fingers for a few years, that out of pocket rate at that age is crazy
my parents are in a good spot financially and paid cobra for the last year pre-65, it was still a big burden
my crystal ball says for most of us medicare age will drop before retirement
i found a lot of the target funds are more conservative than you'd expect based on the timelines they're on should be
Pretty solid insight here.
I quite literally was forced to join the corporate workforce 9 years ago due the need for company paid healthcare. Turns out it was the best thing ever for me as my career has had a meteoric rise ever since.
Does leave me in a weird spot. I’m going to be in my early 40’s when I’m done with a strong amount of personal wealth, but a lingering fear of the cost of my care over the next 20+ years.
Yeah a lot of people go into a date past when they actually want to retire.
FYI, 4% is considered safe for not running out of money in 30 years. For longer than that, 3-3.5% is considered safer to not run out of money. 3% is currently considered the "perpetual" withdrawal rate to where you won't eat into principal. That's what I'm shooting for for retiring.
I’m sure ~8% is “safe” for me, as I’m not 65, I’m 36. I imagine I could find some source of income and I’m very certain in my ability to adjust my budget if need be. Big issue is if I leave my current job for multiple years I would have no ability to re enter the workforce at these income levels so I’m kinda stuck even though I’d love to take a large amount of time away.
Now if I want to guarantee I never have to work another hour plus I don’t want to stress about a dollar even through volatile market conditions, I’m going to use 2-3% for sure. Right now the goal is 4% and then consider everything on top of that qualify of life(style) gravy.
You’re 36 years old and are just now hitting 6 figures in your 401k and you plan to retire in your early 40s? Did I read all of that right?
And can live off of 6% of that now.
It’s almost like I have all the other money in a brokerage account. How is that not your first assumption
maybe I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt and say you don’t think anyone who took this long to figure out their 401k could have enough money saved up elsewhere
ding ding ding buddy