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Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Joe Louis, Jul 12, 2010.
I just put my travel funds in there, but yeah.
I've had my emergency fund at Ally since I started keeping one. They may not be the highest but they are rarely far off and usually keep pace with rate changes, for better or worse, consistently. Would have to be a fairly significant difference rate difference to get me to move it.
Did jorge ever tell you about the Bank of the Internet?
No but he told me I should put it all in Luna.
Recession is coming. The same people that have their head in the sand about inflation also quote the same stuff as to why economy is doing well. Microsoft and target coming out and saying we need to make revisions to earnings isn’t isolated to those two companies.
The fed literally has to force a recession.
I'll never understand the certainty people have
Economy still very healthy, could we end up in a recession? Maybe but that's a tough call right now unless you're operating more off ideology than substance.
Also when, is it mid next year? Late next year? Trying to gauge where the market is then vs now also tough.
Invest your money when you have it available to invest. Anything else is gambling.
This has been my strategy since last November. Keep putting money into the market...understanding that it's disappearing as quick as I put it in, but I just keep my head down knowing that acquiring more and more shares now will eventually prove to be beneficial when the market comes back in a few years.
We may very well be in one right now. I don’t think it’s here right now, because the airport is packed. But it’s coming this year imo. We haven’t seen QT in a while. Someone had a stat. The rule of 10. When 30 year and gas equal 10, a recession is inevitable. Gas isn’t coming down this year and I don’t see the catalyst for the 30 year coming down.
And I’m not arguing your second point. DCA is always a great strategy if you don’t need the money this year. I do the same. But If you do need the money this year, take your losses. The next leg up isn’t worth the risk of the next leg down. Nor is it worth the mental stress.
But I don’t see a 2008 or 2020 if someone is trying to extrapolate that. I just think a natural cool down is coming this year.
DCA is dumb emotional hedge but is net negative.
Also the rule of 30 stuff is dumb. There's zero evidence we're currently in a recession.
Shouldn't be investing anything in the stock market that you need in the short term
Try and stop me bro I need them gainz
If you didn’t know the numbers and just looked around you’d think the market was rocking and rolling. I’m middle middle class and all of my co workers are still buying shit like there’s no tomorrow and taking days off for low production, unpaid.
Taking days off is a sign the economy is rockin and rolling? Did you forget all the days people accumulated for two years. Such a strange argument.
The wealth effect gave people false confidence. The stock market was up and housing was boom. The stock market has retraced and housing is about to flatten out. Mortgages are at a 22 year low. If it weren’t for institutional investors paying cash, housing would be retracing now too.
Funny guy. Post above says how can anyone say anything with certainty. Then says unequivocally there’s zero evidence.
Give it to me. Do we make it out of 2022 without a recession?
You must have missed the part where I said “unpaid”. Buying massive amounts of shit on 32 hours pay instead of 40 is a sign to me the economy is doing well. But you spin it how you need it to look.
yes prognosticating forward and talking about this exact moment is the divide there. you can look at all the indicators now to draw strong conclusions such as its obvious we aren't in a recession, but trying to guess where things go over the next 6-18 months is rolling dice.
dunno and it doesn't really matter from an investing standpoint, but right now having a recession in 2022 is unlikely. 2023 is where the picture gets murkier.
Attention every one, he didn’t actually say “problem solved everybody. Mission accomplished”. Please only quote exact words when referencing the poster who walks on internet water.
you can actually make a claim about something vs just whinging
really need to keep increasing housing supply
What indicators are we looking at?
you have explicitly said, in the last 30 minutes, that nobody can really know. So what worth does my claim have, especially to you? You just want somebody to put baseballs on a tee for you so you can keep swinging.
Each week that goes by and more news and patterns develop I think we are headed for pretty deep waters. I don’t think the Fed can get wage growth and thus inflation under control without doing some severe damage to the economy and the Fed continues to say they will do that if it’s needed to stop inflation.
unemployment not spiking up despite rate increases, still high levels of job openings, household and business finances are in good shape historically speaking (savings rate, wage gains, and profit margins respectively). profit margins coming down which is good, unemployment is showing signs of rising but it's very small so far.
consumption rates still very high, peoples opinions of their own financial situation is at record levels, on and on.
just hard to find too much ominous about the broader economy to state we're in a recession right now from the amateur side, obviously know you might have other thoughts that I'd enjoy hearing.
my post is literally that the certainty with which people make claims about what's going to happen over the next two years is silly. a reasonable take I assumed but some people want to get mad.
I also don't disagree that a soft landing isn't the most likely outcome right now, but again, things change.
I will add that Barry’s Bootcamp and Omakase bars are packed.
I really don't know what you're talking about without more context? are these contractors? I don't need to spin anything. you're the one throwing out vague anecdotes and extrapolating.
I don't question we've enjoyed a YOLO lifestyle for a few months. I don't think the good times keep running. I chose to believe Target and Walmart both coming out in the last week and saying "we bought too much inventory, we got to liquidate some of it" over historical anecdotes from months ago.
I know this is a lie because he would have told you to put it all in BEAN
bullwhip effect on supply/demand is actually a bullish indicator on soft landing btw
Automotive manufacturing, 26 years experience. I was here during 2000, 2008, trust me this is very different.
You sort of explained the “too much inventory” claim by Walmart and Target with your YOLO lifestyle comment. Everyone went hog wild spending money, the retail stores ordered massive amounts of shit, and now the sales have cooled and they’re stuck with the inventory. Doesn’t necessarily mean a recession is coming.
And I’m not a college educated financial guy like y’all so I don’t know what the numbers say. I do work with middle class people everyday but that probably doesn’t account for much…
Explain that one to me. What do the Twitter articles say?
Please explain to me how reading things and accumulating knowledge is bad?
there's nothing bad about it.
it's just a funny jab at someone who's well known for giving them.
It causes deflationary pressure
It's always a bizarre attempted burn
Yes my younger brother has done this dim shtick all of our life basically
Sushi index update: the line to get inside kazu nori to stand in another line a steady 30 people from at least 1:30p on
This is the part that can lead us into a pickle, people believe the economy is strong and eventually we will drive out over the cliff and realized we’ve tightened too hard too fast into a cyclical slow down.
Unemployment is a lagging indicator, housing, new orders and profits will be what to watch. Probably won’t really see anything till late fall. If we get a recession I think it will be more moderate, but expectations are for earnings growth to come in at 10% I don’t think we hit that.
Also I find the consumer stuff BS, wages aren’t keeping pace with inflation, all the stimulus funds for the consumer have been blown through, businesses will have more difficulty getting financing cause rates has skyrocketed, so have mortgages. There is a reason consumer sentiment is in the garbage.
I mean a recession is pretty impactful from an investing standpoint.
I think it’s reasonable to be risk off when the Fed is telling you they want to considerably tighten financial conditions and this includes risk assets.
Again, the above may not come to fruition but that’s what makes a market. You place your bets depending on how you believe.
I’m just not fighting the Fed until they change their tune.
For a retail investor changing your risk profile based on the economy is a net negative play
Depends on the situation, for most maybe, but I think this time the Fed is being real direct about what it’s going to do and people should have stepped out of the way.
Riding it down and up is the best play based on history
It took me a while to really trust this. And then I saw a chart on the difference for every decade since 1930 if you simply missed the ten best days vs buying and holding the whole time. It’s insane. Timing the market is random dumb luck. DCA is fancy market timing, and loses 2/3 of the time. It’s so simple.
FR if you’re on a long enough time horizon timing the market is stupid and you absolutely will lose. Buy and hold and repeat.
We’re making history, fellas!
Can’t wait to discuss this year with my fellow poors in the soup kitchen line here very soon.
Stinky this morning.
not gonna lie though, watching the crypto bros sweat is fun.
Quick reminder to everyone sweating- the infrastructure spending hasn’t started yet and it’s going to be massive.
please expand what does this mean
Money pump into the economy with tangible asset creation