seems Jpo was mostly worried about consumer expectations of inflation ticking up as they did for why they went 75 vs 50
Why the hell are y'all investing in VTI? Dabo has got the acc locked up for at least another 3-5 years.
I need to start waiting until the day AFTER pay day to buy more shares. It happens seemingly every time. Market drops the next day.
With unemployment being near all time lows, it's hard to make the case we're in a recession. Until there's some dramatic change in the labor market it's hard to argue there's *currently* a recession.
Employment rate is a lagging indicator. Tech hiring/firing leads unemployment rate a bit. You can see some self reported layoffs on www.layoffs.fyi
Won’t continue our feud from the crypto thread, but just a warning Lyrtch is primarily relying on political ideology in his financial analysis. A recession would be bad for the midterms for his side and deal a perception blow to MMT (although not sure it should tbh), therefore there is no evidence until the actual GDP numbers come out. Im sure it’s probably apparent but fair warning
Luckily most this thread that participates regularly is open minded and makes good arguments with supporting evidence for why their conclusions are what they are Vs the crypto thread or drive by shitposts
Haven’t participated much but have a Hedgeye pro sub and will share what I can. They’ve been really good
i think low rate climates have led to really increased housing costs (clearly not the only factor) and it'll be interesting how higher rates impact that balance. miiiiiight make me think we could see some pricing declines vs just flattening of gains.
i can never tell who asks questions in good faith since my haters are many so I just treat everything as good faith and answer honestly even if it's not the case
i bought my spot at that same spot at 2.75 spent 3 years looking but bit the bullet at in retrospect a very good time so far
Every time I stockpile cash I just end up dumping a large portion of it into the market. It’s hard to want to do it but now is going to prove to be a great buying time in five years.
Still renting…probably will be for a little while, want to keep some cash available in case we get some housing price relief and rates get cut again
Id agree, the rate of change is really the most dramatic part. I posted this in the housing thread but the change in mortgage payment costs this year is insane. (As of last month it’s actually north of 42%) I’m going to be very interested to watch housing supply numbers over the course of the year, units under construction is pretty high but the new start numbers today were terrible. My base case is overall supply numbers will improve but who knows how it will actually play out.
Not looking great so far. https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf Housing Starts Privately‐owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,549,000. This is 14.4 percent (±8.9 percent) below the revised April estimate of 1,810,000 and is 3.5 percent (±10.7 percent)* below the May 2021 rate of 1,605,000. Single‐family housing starts in May were at a rate of 1,051,000; this is 9.2 percent (±11.0 percent)* below the revised April figure of 1,157,000. The May rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 469,000.
We bought back in 2018. With the ridiculously inflated value and rate hike, my mortgage would be near double what I pay to buy today. And it was dumb back then. Insanity