but seriously seeing that same joke repurposed for every new topic for like a decade by people has removed its ability to be funny especially when it's mostly just transphobic vice signaling
Or it's just funny with no other connotation attached to it. Not everything has to be racist, transphobic, etc. It can be just humorous.
I mean Biden and trump both did fiscal, arguably Biden’s was the one that put us over the top. But if your a Trumper that arguments lost on me cause Trump would’ve done the same thing had he been re-elected. Dude was low key MMT, he understood juicing the stock market and keeping the economy hot would reverberate with his base/popularity. I think for Biden it would have been more beneficial to have done his BBB package first before that stimulus check. But in the end he got his IRA act so he was able to achieve some components. I think what you are describing of M2 vs more fiscal are separate arguments. I’ve stated here before that not doing fiscal would’ve been a horrific deflationary outcome that would’ve been a Great Depression part 2. Inflation is the tamer version of events and the appropriate measure would have been acknowledge inflation was not transitory and raise rates sooner (albeit at a smaller pace) and taper QE and MBS purchases. Now Powell is forced into slamming on the brakes in order to play catch up, which will ultimately have its effects that will show up in Q3&Q4.
its still transitory. I find the QE/MBS arguments pretty weak these days. maybe one cycle sooner rate hike but there was some tampering just from fed positioning impacting companies actions prior to formal hikes. yes Bidens camp should have done what I said regarding ARPA as well but the table was largely set for that bill by the previous bills
I mean my life is transitory, everything is transitory if you give it a long enough time frame. The fed should have began raising rates at the end of 2021 and they could’ve gone .25% at a time.
Is the inflation actually over is it just not getting worse with the 0% month over month print? What are the implications of sticky inflation? Is team transitory still right if it doesn't go minus on the next month over month?
We’re going to find out pretty quickly. Gas prices have decreased, decent chance this deal with Iran gets done since Russia is pushing for it as well. At the same time ships are struggling to offload on the east coast so supply constraints may continue over the next few months.
Fed is between a rock and a hard place. They can’t have the market thinking they will pivot soon (which drove this rally) but doesn’t want to create a recession lead by the market.
I agree with the first part of this that’s why a delayed “transitory” response was a crucial policy error, but I don’t think the recession will be lead by the market. I think it’s housing and durable goods orders. Everyone’s bought every dishwasher, bbq, RV, whatever they’ve wanted for the past year. Everything thus far in the stock market has been rates driven, the second shoe is earnings but that takes longer to play out.
I should have been more clear, I was meaning that declining stock valuations would lead to an increase in unemployment (ie companies cutting costs) which would lead to a recession. A strong job market is one of the only reasons the Fed can be hawkish.
Yea I mean we can argue chicken or the egg, I think companies are seeing softening economic conditions as why they are tightening rather than their stocks being down. But in reality it’s probably a bit of both.
https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/podcast/peter-zeihan-global-macro-series-april-27th-2022/ good podcast
I work at one of the big grill brands and this is extremely accurate. We expect significantly reduced volume into at least 2024. Like -20-30%
Yea I mean it makes sense and it’s not just grills it’s chip makers like Nvidia guiding down, Trex decking products, etc. and now financing costs are higher for anything. Consumers are getting squeezed and outside of travel probably have less appetite to buy the remainder of this year. But earnings take longer to play out than changes in valuations due to interest rates.
That’s the problem, you ease up now and you suffer the Arthur Burns fate. They don’t want to be remembered in history as Arthur Burns.
So that "heat event" in China or whatever it's being called is probably going to have some massive level affects on the market within the next year. Factories closing down, lithium prices sky rocketing etc. Anybody throwing any darts at plays for a worst case scenario with all that? I don't even know where to start
China gets 60% of their electricity power from coal, only 17% or so comes from hydro. Once the heat wave subsides the demand side will mellow out (AC usage). They had a much more serious energy crunch last winter because of small coal inventories and rocketing coal prices, they have secured sufficient coal for this year so it won’t be a problem like last year. This is a guy a follow on Twitter for China related stuff and has a good thread on the topic. I don't think it will have the impact you expect, now the Chinese property crisis on the other hand…
I think the future of office is pretty scary, but HIW is one of the top 2 or 3 office REITs and is trading at an implied 9.2% cap rate. They own good assets in basically only growth sun belt markets. 9.2% is crazy wide, despite the headwinds.
I think these are a couple I watched. There's quite a lot have sensationalist headlines like China will collapse. Or just Google Evergrande, the Chinese company.
This is incredible. Yesterday CNBC cut off a woman who talks about "shorts covering" after years of CNBC pretty blatantly manipulating the market. Reddit obviously got a hold of it but check out this just absolutely cringeworthy response from CNBC
Imagine if these Reddit gambling dipshits organized to withhold their labor instead of bitching online about losing at a casino.
Been holding a bag of HOOD for close to year now. Wondering if I should sell to get the deduction and just roll it into something like sofi that may have a little more upside and it still beat down like a dog