Yep - have heard you say that before, but tbh would rather wait for trend reversal, (the coast is clear) vs the pico bottom.
I love when we use “deployed cash” in here when referencing buying stock. I’ve been living damn near paycheck to paycheck with all the cash I’ve been deploying, thinking we’re at the bottom.
So far everything’s pretty much rerated due to rates, higher for longer. We still haven’t had a revision of earnings, Q3 earnings could give us a reprieve bounce or it could be the beginning of guiding down. Price and earnings can move in opposition or in tandem with each other.
and by this statement I mean P/E P= “price” correlates to treasury yields and E = earnings and correlates to earnings per share P right now is somewhere in the realm of 14.5-15.5+/- and earnings are in the realm of 236-245. 15.5x236= 3,658 We closed at 3586 if you say P or price is 15, 15x236 is 3540. Stocks go up if treasury yields decline or earnings go up, so you won’t see a bottom until yields hold and earnings hold or yields go down enough to cancel out an earnings decline. If yields stay high while earnings get revised down stocks will continue to go down, if yields keep going up and earnings stay the same stocks will go down. Currently the Fed has the bond markets ear that it will continue hiking higher for longer in order to kill inflation, even if it means recession. This is what has been getting priced in since jackson hole and the bond market believes the Fed. typically treasury yields decline when they see economic weakness like lower economic readings, but the bond market has shrugged off most of that so far. The key indicator will be jobs, and it’s a lagging indicator. I don’t think bonds will reverse till we get a truly bad jobs report. Once that happens treasury yields may begin to decline as the market perceives the fed will have to cut rates in the future to help the economy. We will see if the Fed will, as they are currently talking tough. Barring a pivot in stance (even tone) I think we have further downside over the next few months. tl/Dr my layman’s understanding of the stock market I’m a firefighter so don’t take anything I said as financial advice.
Pretty good understanding of the basic fundamentals that hold true over long periods of time. I would say that despite those long arc truths, it’s important to take into account that the market is susceptible to illogical movements over short periods of time and sometimes those movement can create short and medium term fundamental truths. A good read on an example of this that’s not the GFC and CDOs is about Long Term Capital Management.
Yea agree, this is the long arc and you have short term waves of panic or euphoria that may go higher or lower than the trend but the long arc is the meat of it.
the fact that my 401k is about the same balance as it was in June 2021 and I contribute about $1300-1500 per month since then is a tough pill to swallow
I'm down over 2.25 x what I've put in this year. And that's with maxing 401k, IRAs, HSAs and extra into MBD roth. It is was it is at this point. DCAing twice a month.
Probably won't be able to do as much next year with all the limits jumping up. 2023 401k - $22,500 2023 IRA - $6,500 2023 HSA - $7,750
I just flat out refuse to look, but I do need to transfer funds from my checking to brokerage so I probably should log in, I just don’t wanna see how bad it is.
Getting ready to take a job that doesn’t offer a 401k. My initial thoughts are to just max out my existing (traditional) IRA, HSA, and divide what’s left between HYSA and brokerage. Just curious if anyone else has a better idea of how to handle personal retirement savings. I thought about a back door Roth but I’m not entirely sure that we’ll be in a higher tax bracket at retirement.
If you are under the limit for tax deduction on the traditional IRA, do that (I assume you aren't since you mentioned the backdoor Roth). Otherwise do the Roth IRA. Max out the HSA, then you are stuck like you listed.
If we can get shelter under control, entirely possible IMO. That seems to be the wildcard, pretty clear path for big reduction everywhere else
I'm reeeeeal suspicious of all this green in my account the last few days. Im hopeful, but don't trust it one bit
Finally making the move to online savings instead of traditional. Is Ally the move? Is it easy to transfer money that's currently tied up in traditional over to online?
Feels like a lot of short covering today. Australia’s central bank didn’t raise as much as the market thought, but I’m weary of this rally unless the job number has some damage it in.
What's a good place to look at outstanding short interest on individual tickers? And is there a good resource to determine in real time whether shorts are being squeezed?
This data in the US is inherently difficult to accumulate. The exchanges produce reports about every 2 weeks with the short interest of every stock listed. 2 week old data is pretty worthless in financial market terms. I know of a retail based solution that is best in class but you would have to pay for it. PM me and I can show you where to find it.
Lot of solid indicators on results of fed tightening. Downside risk is them over tightening. Easy scenario where that was bottom
I’m nowhere near as deep in or savvy in re the market as you all but I’ve been making pretty easy money on a turbulent stock este. I have orders in to buy every time it hits 13, 12, and 11. And sell orders at 15. This last run sold at 17. I’m on the 6th cycle of it now. Not massive gains but my best consistent investment.