Official Investing Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Joe Louis, Jul 12, 2010.

  1. Sportfan

    Sportfan From Six to Dumptime
    San Antonio SpursHouston TexansNew Mexico State AggiesTexas AandM Aggies

    At this rate we will be under 3% in 2025!

    yes the prevailing sentiment seems to be at some point shelter will actually roll over in the data. Maybe it’s the new “transitory”.
     
  2. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    Shelter has rolled over in the data it's just the metric that is used lags 6 months. Don't have to be snippy because you don't know things.
     
  3. Sportfan

    Sportfan From Six to Dumptime
    San Antonio SpursHouston TexansNew Mexico State AggiesTexas AandM Aggies

    they’ve been saying the lag will show forever and now it’s like “well maybe it’s a year lag”
     
  4. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member
    Donor

    ^reference to rates not inflation, but with the revisions to last years data and todays print inflation looking stickier than a month ago.



     
    #29654 Arliden, Feb 14, 2023
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2023
  5. Whammy

    Whammy Donde es
    Donor
    Alabama Crimson TideVanderbilt CommodoresNew Orleans SaintsChicago BlackhawksAtlanta United

    [​IMG]
     
    Harrison Beck likes this.
  6. Whammy

    Whammy Donde es
    Donor
    Alabama Crimson TideVanderbilt CommodoresNew Orleans SaintsChicago BlackhawksAtlanta United

    Team - my fiancé doesn't really have a good grasp on personal finance (her parents were not good with money) - for example she's got multiple 401k's / IRA's from past places she's worked (but can't really articulate where they are or how much they are), has credit card and personal loan debt but doesn't know the interest rates or whether she can pay off the loan early, etc....I'm half expecting her retirement accounts to be all cash vs actually invested.

    I've asked her to gather all information and am sitting down with her tomorrow after work to go through it and assess the situation. I also want to take the opportunity to teach and instill personal finance concepts and how we're going to manage money moving forward. I can take her through it just fine, but thought I would ask anyone if they have any thoughts on frameworks or material to use? Anyone been in a similar situation?
     
  7. user15000

    user15000 Well-Known Member

    Thread

     
    NothingIsOT and Sportfan like this.
  8. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWENebraska Cornhuskers alt

    That’s always been my thought/concern when it comes to inflation. Sure the initial cause for it could be temporary, but if the seller can continue to sell their goods at the inflated price why would they lower it?

    Maybe I’m looking at it way too simple, but just seems like for a lot of stuff, the current price is the new normal (maybe +/- a small %).
     
    Harrison Beck and construxboy like this.
  9. Bo Pelinis

    Donor TMB OG
    Nebraska CornhuskersKansas City RoyalsKansas City ChiefsBig 8 Conference

    It's a lot more complicated, though. Competition should drive down prices when input costs go down. We saw supply chain issues that lead to supply constraints that lead to higher input costs. When those iron out you have a couple options.

    You can keep selling at a certain price but only if every other party selling that same thing agrees. Inevitably someone will drop prices to try to gain market share and then you will have to follow suit unless you have some other built-in advantage or if you're in an imperfect market (oligopoly/etc). It's also highly product and market dependent.
     
  10. Bo Pelinis

    Donor TMB OG
    Nebraska CornhuskersKansas City RoyalsKansas City ChiefsBig 8 Conference

    The problem with rents in the inflation number is that raising rates to combat inflation makes financing a home buy more expensive. While it lowers housing prices through decreased demand (which isn't reflected in inflation numbers iirc), rents won't really correspond because you've just made it harder for renters to buy because financing becomes more expensive.
     
  11. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWENebraska Cornhuskers alt

    That’s true. I guess I was more thinking about it from some of the really large companies that seem to have the brand loyalty where people just complain about it but pay for it anyways. Obviously that’s not going to be the case with everything and as you said competition can play a bigger factor there.
     
    Sportfan and Bo Pelinis like this.
  12. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    This isn't true at all. You can match up the charts.
     
  13. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    Bogleheads and white coat investor do a good job laying out that indexing to the market and compound interest is the winning formula. Obviously have her combine all the errant accounts.
     
    Whammy likes this.
  14. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    The idea you need to get back to pre covid baseline prices is silly imo. Only monetarists/gold bugs/now Bitcoin ideologues run with that ideology.
     
    Harrison Beck and Tug like this.
  15. construxboy

    construxboy xenForo is the new TMB
    Donor
    North Carolina TarheelsPenn State Nittany LionsBuffalo BillsBuffalo SabresArsenalCharlotte FC

    Lyrtch likes this.
  16. Sportfan

    Sportfan From Six to Dumptime
    San Antonio SpursHouston TexansNew Mexico State AggiesTexas AandM Aggies

    Thought this was a pretty interesting conversation around taxes and early retirement.

    Discusses the value of taxable accounts, Roth conversions, Affordable Care Act considerations, solo 401ks and more.

     
  17. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

  18. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member
    Donor

    Random data point.
     
  19. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member
    Donor

  20. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member
    Donor

    PPI came in pretty hot today.

    Economic and inflation data for the past couple weeks all pointing towards higher for longer.

    In a ironic way soft landing crowd probably needed weak growth in Q1.
     
  21. Sportfan

    Sportfan From Six to Dumptime
    San Antonio SpursHouston TexansNew Mexico State AggiesTexas AandM Aggies

    There’s just so little to show the fed’s hikes are doing anything too much beyond the mortgage market. Can we attribute any reduction in CPI or PPI to them at this point. I know this in a roundabout way makes me team transitory, but I’m just not seeing much that says their hikes have had a material impact on goods or services inflation.

    Certainly hasn’t impacted the labor market.
     
  22. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member
    Donor

    The short answer is rates take a long time to permeate through the real economy. On rate sensitive items like houses or autos you can see the effects fairly quickly. It takes a lot longer for rates to affect services but over time it will.

    Historically if you look back at past hiking cycles you don’t see recessions for 12-18 months after.



    But also this is all just data for this month, next month could show what January seemed to show which is rapid disinflation and weaker growth. We are currently just in the whipsaw of data and there’s alot more data from now till the end of March when the next Fed meeting is.
     
  23. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    been a lot of discussions how seasonal adjustments are off kilter post covid (plus weather has been anomalous this year) causing some hot Q1 reads

    will be interesting to see if it's a blip or not. soft landing is kind of a misnomer as no landing became the hot topic. seems like hot economy for another few months and recession potential is sliding into 24 becoming the consensus.

    but on your post while i was typing this could be whiplash blip and return to prior december consensus soon enough
     
  24. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member
    Donor

    Yea it’s just taking it month by month at this point, I do think this retightening of things increases recession odds. But like I said earlier at least powell will have 2 CPI’s in a row before he makes a call. Everything looking back has been revised higher inflation wise so the picture isn’t as rosy as it once seemed.

    I’m not married to any one idea at this point, but softly landing this plane will be difficult.
     
  25. Det. Frank Bullitt

    Det. Frank Bullitt God Bless Texas
    Donor TMB OG
    Texas LonghornsManchester United

    Thanks to whoever linked the IRS 1099K FAQ document a while ago. Just skimmed it.


    I don't resell items using venmo etc, but was curious how they will report my receiving activity, which almost exclusively is straight reimbursements. Seems to be captured here:

    Q8. My friend and I went to a concert, and my friend reimbursed money to me for her concert ticket through an online application. If I get a Form 1099-K for the reimbursement, do I need to pay taxes on it? (added December 28, 2022)

    A8. Because the money is not payment for the sale of goods or the provision of services, generally the reimbursement would not be taxable to you.

    If you believe the information on Form 1099-K, is incorrect, the form has been issued in error, or you have a question relating to the form, contact the filer, whose name and contact information appears in the upper left corner on the front of the form. You may also contact the payment settlement entity whose name and phone number are shown in the lower left side of the form.

    If you cannot get the form corrected, the error should be reported on Form 1040, Schedule 1, Part I,Additional Income, Line 8z,Other Income, with an offsetting entry in Part II,Adjustments to Income, Line 24z,Other Adjustments.

    For example, if you received $800 from a friend reimbursing you for a concert ticket and you received a Form 1099-K reporting this as gross proceeds, your Schedule 1 should reflect the following:

    Form 1040, Schedule 1
    Part I – Line 8z,Other Income. List type and amount: "Form 1099-K Received in Error.... $800" to show the proceeds reported on the Form 1099-K.
    Part II – Line 24z,Other Adjustments. List type and amount: "Form 1099-K Received in Error.... $800" to offset the proceeds reported to you in error. Not reporting this adjustment could result in you improperly reporting gain on the reimbursement.

    https://www.irs.gov/pub/taxpros/fs-2022-41.pdf
     
  26. Det. Frank Bullitt

    Det. Frank Bullitt God Bless Texas
    Donor TMB OG
    Texas LonghornsManchester United

    Q2. What do I do if I think my Form 1099-K is incorrect? (updated December 28, 2022)

    A2. If you believe the information on Form 1099-K, Payment Card and Third Party Network Transactions, is incorrect, the form has been issued in error, or you have a question relating to the form, contact the filer, whose name and contact information appears in the upper left corner on the front of the form

    You may also contact the payment settlement entity whose name and phone number are shown in the lower left side of the form.

    If you cannot get the form corrected, the error should be reported onForm 1040, Schedule 1, Additional Income and Adjustments to Income, Part I, Additional Income, Line 8z, Other Income, with an offsetting entry in Part II, Adjustments to Income, Line 24z, Other Adjustments.
     
  27. kinghill

    kinghill Cool American Flavour
    Donor
    Miami HurricanesMiami MarlinsMiami DolphinsMiami HeatPoker

    No specific advice other than saying youre doing the right thing. Follow-through with it, it’s important.

    I didn’t and finances became a huge problem in my marriage. I’m since divorced.
     
    C A N E and Whammy like this.
  28. Jimmy the Saint

    Jimmy the Saint The future is a benevolent black hole
    Donor
    Penn State Nittany LionsGreen Bay PackersChelseaHartford WhalersPhoenix Rising

    The new regs got pushed for a year so it shouldn't be an issue this year (tax year 2022) for most people.
     
  29. DuffandMuff

    DuffandMuff Well-Known Member
    Tampa Bay LightningSan Diego Padres

    Noticed my HSA contribution went up a little bit. Then discovered the contribution limit went up to $3,850 for single.
     
  30. dukebuckeye

    dukebuckeye I’m OK with your low opinion of me.
    Donor TMB OG
    Ohio State BuckeyesCleveland BrownsColumbus Blue JacketsCleveland CavaliersCleveland Indians

    I've been practicing my option trading skills and the early returns are not great. lol
     
    letan, jcb-r, ScFan27 and 3 others like this.
  31. DuffandMuff

    DuffandMuff Well-Known Member
    Tampa Bay LightningSan Diego Padres

    Stick with it. You can’t lose everything.
     
    beerme, NC Wolfpack, letan and 4 others like this.
  32. dukebuckeye

    dukebuckeye I’m OK with your low opinion of me.
    Donor TMB OG
    Ohio State BuckeyesCleveland BrownsColumbus Blue JacketsCleveland CavaliersCleveland Indians

    I should've clarified- I'm not using actual money yet. I'm practicing on Investopedia with their simulator.
     
  33. beist

    beist Hyperbolist
    Donor

    Word to the wise: it is very easy to convince yourself that you are some sort of genius when you are playing with fake money and then completely wet the bed when you have actual dollars at stake. At least that's what a friend told me.
     
    C A N E, ScFan27, construxboy and 4 others like this.
  34. dukebuckeye

    dukebuckeye I’m OK with your low opinion of me.
    Donor TMB OG
    Ohio State BuckeyesCleveland BrownsColumbus Blue JacketsCleveland CavaliersCleveland Indians

    Very true. It's similar to gambling. I talk a big game when I don't have my actual money on the line. When I got o make actual bets, they are much more humble.
     
    letan and beist like this.
  35. construxboy

    construxboy xenForo is the new TMB
    Donor
    North Carolina TarheelsPenn State Nittany LionsBuffalo BillsBuffalo SabresArsenalCharlotte FC

    Buying and writing or actual trading?
     
  36. ScFan27

    ScFan27 Well-Known Member
    South Carolina GamecocksNew York YankeesNew York JetsNew York Rangers

    Think or swim has paper trading on the desktop and mobile apps. Probably a better interface but I haven’t used investopedia’s simulator since 2014.
     
    jcb-r and dukebuckeye like this.
  37. kinghill

    kinghill Cool American Flavour
    Donor
    Miami HurricanesMiami MarlinsMiami DolphinsMiami HeatPoker

    I suck at math is there a good online calculator that will help me understand the impact of "Expense Ratio" in long-term 401k account? Like what does 0.50% vs 0.05% mean for 20 years of holding those funds
     
  38. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
    Donor
    Real MadridJacksonville JaguarsFlorida GatorsTampa Bay Rays

    kinghill likes this.
  39. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    kinghill likes this.
  40. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    on 100k, it's >9k in fees saved over 20 years
     
  41. kinghill

    kinghill Cool American Flavour
    Donor
    Miami HurricanesMiami MarlinsMiami DolphinsMiami HeatPoker

    yikes 0.50 is high
    threw in some numbers for a quick comparison

    upload_2023-2-19_23-10-10.png


    upload_2023-2-19_23-10-50.png
     
    jcb-r and letan like this.
  42. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    bogle is our lord and savior
     
    Chumbolone and kinghill like this.
  43. kinghill

    kinghill Cool American Flavour
    Donor
    Miami HurricanesMiami MarlinsMiami DolphinsMiami HeatPoker

    being able to calculate and compare based on expense ratio is cool now I can say ok so how much better does the 0.5% fund have to perform compared to the 0.1% fund to be worth it
     
    BigReff73 likes this.
  44. Sportfan

    Sportfan From Six to Dumptime
    San Antonio SpursHouston TexansNew Mexico State AggiesTexas AandM Aggies

    $100k compounded annually at 8% pre fee return is about $37k difference over that time.

    It’s why folks need to take look at their 401k fees (and other factors like tax bracket and retirement age) before contributing over a company match.
     
    C A N E, Lyrtch, jcb-r and 1 other person like this.
  45. soulfly

    soulfly Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Seattle MarinersSeattle SeahawksBarcelonaSeattle SupersonicsSeattle SoundersSeattle Kraken

    Sooooo do I sell my Sigma Lithium stock now that there are early rumors that Tesla is interested in buying them out? Or do I wait a while longer to see if a bunch of Elon dorks start buying the shit out of it?
     
  46. fish

    fish Impossible, Germany
    Donor
    Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles RamsLos Angeles KingsSouthern California Trojans

    Never be afraid to take a profit.
     
    kinghill, dukebuckeye and soulfly like this.
  47. WC

    WC Bad Company, ‘til the day I die.
    Donor TMB OG
    North Carolina State WolfpackAtlanta BravesCarolina PanthersCarolina HurricanesUnited States Men's National Soccer Team

    Id sell it and buy DEEZ
     
    fish, Tug and soulfly like this.
  48. soulfly

    soulfly Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Seattle MarinersSeattle SeahawksBarcelonaSeattle SupersonicsSeattle SoundersSeattle Kraken

    For sure.

    A bit annoyed about the Tesla acquisition possibilities, because I purchased due to all of their environmental standards they are in the process of getting in place. And I’m sure if Tesla buys before the final product is up and running, it might all get tossed right out the window. Still seems like there is a ton of growth possibility, though, given that they aren’t even up to full production yet, and camping on a massive deposit.

    :ohdear:
     
  49. soulfly

    soulfly Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Seattle MarinersSeattle SeahawksBarcelonaSeattle SupersonicsSeattle SoundersSeattle Kraken

    Not before I buy some of BOFA
     
    Det. Frank Bullitt and kinghill like this.
  50. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    weird time right now, more indicators the hot january reads aren't a blip, trending towards 3.x inflation yoy still but getting into the 2's going to be a journey. could be lots of chop for a few months, terminal rate maybe north of 5% now, but also big gdp numbers anticipated. real wages positive last i looked.

    also consumer sentiment about the economy booming to highs

    we really don't know what to do with our hands in this economy
     
    Hatfield and Stagger Lee like this.