Not sure on how much you have laid out, but a hedge sounds like a smart move if you can guarantee a profit
Went ahead and did it. It was just a $12 bet that pays out $1k. I'm never betting a strong amount on a 10 team parlay when I'm spread out so much between UFC/PGA DraftKings.
Sounds like you have a 83-1 bet going into this last leg of the parlay. If I offered you 83-1 on it right now wouldn’t you bet more then $12 on it? By hedging you’ve effectively bet less
As confident as I am in Weidman tonight, he's lost like 5 of his last 6. I'll ensure the profit and keep rolling. If he wins even better, sets me up to win big on DK tonight.
Full disclosure I had the same 10 bet parlay with Staropoli in it. Didn't want you guys thinking I'm betting shit I don't put my name on in here.
And btw, if you want to go in business together, my DMs are open. My picks and your bankroll will make a lot of money for both of us.
Weidman’s chin is just always out there and I brace myself constantly bc if it gets touched he’s going to sleep
Winning a 10 man parlay feels great. If Oleynik does work we're doing serious business on DraftKings.
All depends on what Oleynik does. But the 50k is in play. I understand that's one unit for Gallant Knight, but that's life changing for my family of three.
1st round Ezekiel Choke by Oleynik puts us high up the leaderboard. I'm not sure if we take down the 50k because of taking Naqrapast on our best lineup vs Dariush, but we'll be close.
Lando Donovan what did you end up doing? I went to a bar that was outside and and did not have the fights.
Not sure you what you mean, I'm pretty transparent on here. I hedged a bit on Weidman's opponent. Needed Oleynik for a monster night, but it was still a 4 figure night. I'm happy.
Sorry, deep in the bourbon tonight. 4 figure profit, but would've been monstrous if Jaynes and Oleynik finished when they had the opportunities.
How many times are we going to have to hear about Lewis' bathroom habits? This guy talks a lot of shit. (MMA dad jokes?)
Destroying her face, the thing that got her here to begin with, for $1m is the most short-sighted thing I've ever seen. Should have gone to Bellator, gotten fights with lower-level competition and strung her fighting career out to continue to build her brand/social media. Also, wasn't Bare Knuckle the organization that couldn't pay most of their fighters not that long ago?
Alright let's get into it...... Cormier v Miocic. I'll be decently overweight on Cormier in DK. I'm expecting most to be since they're right next to each other in price. There are a couple of angles here. Cormier is 41, overweight, and has a baby on the way. Not to mention half his gym is in mourning over Khabib's dad. Stipe looks amazing. If you're on narrative street, you'd obviously be on Stipe here. However, I think DC's fight IQ is off the charts. If he wrestled him in rounds 4 and 5 of the last fight, he gets an easy decision. Got sloppy, let his hands down, and got caught. So 4 of the 5 rounds they've fought, DC dominated. I think his legacy is more important than his ego, regardless of what he said last night in the presser. He's going to get this to the ground early and often. I like DC a lot here, ITD. +180. O'Malley v Vera. This O'Malley fight really stinks to me. The guy has all the hype after knocking out Eddie Wineland and the other guy with the cool mustache. Before that? won a decision over Andre Soukhamthath, a guy who is 2-5 in the UFC. Before that? Won a decision vs Terrion Ware, a guy currently on a 6 fight losing streak. That's his entire UFC career. Sure the knockouts were awesome, but what happens when somebody survives round 1? When somebody takes him to the ground? Vera can do that. 8 of his 15 wins have been by submission, and he's never been knocked out. All 6 losses were by decision. He also looks supremely confident on Embedded and at weigh ins this morning. It's almost like he knows something. I think I'm going to take a chance on him (check back tomorrow afternoon and I'll have things finalized at the bottom of this post in shorthand form). Vera inside the distance is +520, and I could see him winning by submission. As of today, that's where I'm at. But to play it safe, my official pick is Vera straight up, +226. Rozenstruik v Dos Santos. Rozenstruik knocks motherfuckers out (everybody gets knocked out by Ngannou), and JDS turtles up when he gets in trouble so he can fight another day. I see that happening here. Not overthinking this one, Rozenstruik ITD is -105. If you wanted to get crazy his first round odds are +225. Dvalishvili vs Dodson. He set the record for takedowns two fights ago with 12. Decided to break his own record his last fight with 13. Dodson is 35 years old, and these bantamweights begin to lose a step around this age. His greatest asset is his speed. No need to be wordy here, I expect a ton of takedowns, high ownership on DraftKings, and a decision win for Dvalishvili, which is currently -170. Pichel vs Miller. The line has moved 71 points in Pichel's favor since opening, and Miller isn't just on the back nine of his career, he's putting for bogey on 18. Sure he caught Roberts with an armbar in the first round last fight, but he had lost 6 of his previous 9 fights. Hold your breath because Miller will come out looking for a finish early, but Pichel doesn't get knocked out. One time back in 2012. Miller will gas out after the first round, and be ripe for the pickings. I'd probably jump on Pichel at -130 now before it keeps going up. Could get a finish, but just as easily could win by decision. Burns vs Pineda. Burns missed weight by 4.5 pounds. Historically speaking, guys who miss weight, especially by that much, usually do really well. When they miss weight by that much, it means they gave up early in the week and didn't spend those last few days in complete agony. The line has moved 85 points in Burns direction (pre-weigh in, I haven't checked since yesterday evening). He's finished his last five fights. Daniel Pineda hasn't been in the UFC since 2014. Been bouncing around regional promotions since then. The guy comes ready for a war. I expect fireworks and a first round knockout for Burns. Burns ITD is -185. If you wanna get frisky with the 1st round win that's +135. Virna Jandiroba vs Felice Herrig. So Herrig has never been stopped. She's 14-8, with all 8 losses coming by decision to good competition. She blew out a knee and hasn't been active in two years. Jandiroba has finished 12 of her 15 wins, all by submission. I honestly don't have a strong feeling one way or the other here. If you need to play it, you either take Herrig by decision or Jandiroba ITD. If you wanted some ownership leverage on DK, Jandiroba at 9K should be very lowly owned. One thing that is eye opening is the line movement towards Jandiroba. I'm a big believer in following line movements. Hers has moved more than anybody else on the card, opened at -155 and last I looked, is at -309. I think a lot of people are expecting a lot out of her, so I'll get on board with Jandiroba. If you're betting her, it only makes sense to take her ITD at +215. Taking her at -309 is not something I'd be looking to do. Even on a parlay. Souza v Yoder. The line has moved 59 points towards Yoder. She's also tough as nails. She's never been finished, and she's been in there with legit competition (Markos, Mackenzie Dern, Angela Hill, Justine Kish). Souza looked awful vs Van Buren, who turned out to be fools gold. She also struggles with bigger fighters, and Yoder fits that mold. With that said and the line movement, I like Yoder by decision, and that pays +175. TJ Brown v Danny Chavez. I was all over TJ Brown vs Jordan Griffin. He beat the shit out of that dude for 1.5 rounds until Griffin luckboxed his way into a guillotine. Brown brings a crazy pace and either kills or is killed. He's had 21 fights, and only 2 have went to decision. This one is a little dicey because Chavez has won his last 3 fights by first round knockout. Expect fireworks. I like TJ Brown, his ground game should shine here. TJ Brown ITD pays +165. Daukaus v Porter. I expect this to be sloppy. Both guys have beaten up cans. I don't have much feel here, but Porter can win in a number of ways, as his last four fights have been by TKO, a kimura, a TKO, and a keylock. Daukaus is a pretty fat, sloppy dude, so I question his gas tank. If this gets into the 2nd round, I can see Porter finding a submission somehow. I am worried about the line movement of 27 points towards Daukaus here, but I'll just assume his brother placed a big bet on him. I doubt I'll be on this at all, but my pick is Porter ITD at +145. Kamaka vs Kelley. Kamaka is a decision machine, winning his last 7 fights by decision. Doesn't have any power, and doesn't throw. I don't know how I could ever bet him. Kelley took 3 years off for whatever reason after having a 5 round war with Kevin Aguilar. That's also concerning. But I'd be more comfortable putting my money on Kelley. No need to get greasy here, let's just take him straight up with the dog money, Kelley at +170. So to recap, if you don't care to read all my bullshit: DC ITD +180 Vera +225 Rozenstruik ITD -105 Dvalishvili by decision -170 Pichel -130 Burns ITD -185 Jandiroba ITD +215 Yoder by decision +175 Brown ITD +165 Porter ITD +145 Kelley +170 Good luck! I might change my mind some in the next 24 hours, but if I do, I'll make it very clear in this post before it's too late.