With all the rain any wind is going to bring down trees, add in tornadoes and there are going to be some really messy areas.
Ground is already saturated from last week and we are in a flash flood watch tomorrow through Tuesday. Not ideal
“We’ll really need to be prepared on this severe event as the ground will be soaked to the core with the excessive rainfall that will have already occurred before the event, the root systems on all trees may be very weak. We’ll probably need to treat Severe Thunderstorm Warnings the same as Tornado Warnings due to the fact that it won’t take that much to blow down plenty of trees.”
Yeah. I didn't look much tonight at the potential for more discrete supercells before things line out. If the warm sector sees anything like that, the tornado threat will be higher. It'll likely be a big line with lots of wind and spin up tornadoes. The models were hinting at the cold front pushing very close to the gulf coast before return flow sets up early wed. Another thing to watch
Yeah, Spann isn't exaggerating about things around here. I've been in Birmingham for seven years now, and it's never been as wet as now. I live on a hill, and my backyard is somehow a lake. These places that have huge pines are in trouble, and the multiple hundred-foot-tall pecans over my house aren't ideal either.
I’m a little confused why everyone is acting like everything is fine. Several major roadways already impassable in spots and rain is about to ramp back up
Front looks to really squash instability tomorrow. Scours the air mass out and not enough time for return flow to work it's magic. Lapse rates are not good either. Still likely a big squall line with severe hazards. Plus the rain and flooding. Won't be pretty, but thankfully not the bigger isolated supercell/tornado threat
It's no fun that's for sure. We are south just on the Antioch/Lavergne line so hopefully most of the bad stuff misses us tonight.
For real though, we just south of Nashville so we missed it. Looks like north/east got hit hard though.
That supercell was showing serious rotation near Milan, 120 miles west of Nashville. NWS slept on it for about an hour before they put a tornado warning on it near Bruceton. Fell asleep hoping it wouldn’t make it to Nashville. Looks like it was a monster dropping a couple long track tornadoes. Nashville damage I’ve seen is high end EF-3 plausible low end EF-4. Want to see some rural aerials because I think the velocities were higher west of Nashville.
Rotation tracks show this could have possibly been a single tornado on the ground over 110 miles from around Mansfield to east of Lebanon. Monster.
It was showing a super tight couplet from Milan to Bruceton before they put a tornado warning on it. The rotation tracks posted shows there was a tornado likely on the ground that whole way. Now I’m an amateur but I felt like I was taking crazy pills that they wouldn’t warn the storm with those velocities presented on radar. And it was just beginning to ramp up.
Yeah, it's hard to say. I bet it was a combination of distance from radar (would they really believe rotation was at surface) + lack of reports + perhaps they thought it was night/surface inversion --> possible limiting factor in their minds + shift change.
So so awful hearing and seeing all of the reports. Such an disastrous confluence of events: nighttime tornado in a major metro area + throw in the fact that it was likely a strong/violent tornado.
Rotation tracks show this as a different tornado. Likely two violent tornadoes (so far) on a slight risk day. NWS regressing to 2016 levels in putting out conservative outlooks apparently.