Not usually. There's a balance, really. The outflow helps to force air ahead of the line to rise, thus sustaining existing convection and producing new updrafts. However, if the outflow took off and raced well ahead of the line, the chances for weakening is higher, but it's not always the case. If you loop the radar you'll notice that just behind the outflow there appears to be many new pulses of reflectivity - new updrafts/storms.
A once-tornadic circulation (with debris signature) looks like it's just going to move north of my FIL in Illinois, thankfully
I'm super happy this thread is pretty active on severe weather days with people sharing tweets, radar, whatever. I'd be happy to put something together to include in the OP, or a new thread. Anyone have any particular requests?
I'd love an FAQ/short tornado and severe weather for dummies blurb in the OP. Don't care if it's this thread or a new one but it may be nice to keep the history of this thread
I was thinking about the radar / sounding reading lessons, YouTube lectures on forecasting etc. Radar, imagery, model pages. I lost my bookmarks, so I'd probably be asking again before too long.
There was some decent straight line wind damage in areas of my town. On my way to drop my son off at daycare I drove past three news trucks that were covering some damage of a trampoline all bent to shit next to a downed fence and a snapped telephone pole And this was carried a few blocks away
My neighbor's trampoline flew into my backyard. My daughter thought I finally bought her one. Same neighbor is also missing a downspout and has some pretty mangled gutters. EF1 was reported about 15 minutes from my house.
How we compare to other years thus far for tornado reports. Preliminary and may include duplicate tornadoes
You know how I judge a tornado? Ef1 damage probably moved my 200lb grill Ef2 damage probably moved my 2000 lb vehicle Ef3 damage probably destroyed my trees and possibly my home Ef4 damage moved my house off of the foundation Ef5 nothing is left but some pipes 20 ft down and a belt
Alright, here's a start for stuff to put in the OP. If there is anything else or another question, I can add that. I have a bunch of links to observations, soundings, radar, satellite, models, etc on a site I put together to keep track of everything. I use SPC, COD, Pivotal Weather (PW), and Tropical Tidbits (TT) the most. COD has everything. http://wxsme.weebly.com/wx-links.html Radar stuff: Radar Fundamentals (NWS/Iowa State) How to read and interpret radar (Iowa State) NWS Jet Stream Doppler Radar Description of radar products (RadarScope) - near the bottom under "Radar Products" RadarScope (Apple and Android) - $9.99 one-time fee (9.99/year for lightning and a few other additional features) GR3 - 21 day trial or $80 one-time fee. Free NOAA/NWS radar feed, what I use at home. If you do happen to buy or get the trial, let me know and I can get you better color tables to use...the defaults suck. GR2Analyst uses Level 2 radar, essentially what is used in NWS offices. More expensive, data hog (if you chase with it). Iowa State has a free feed, otherwise you need pay 3rd party vendors for a reliable feed. Pykl3 (Android, not sure about Apple) - $9.99 one-time fee; I have this as well, it's nice but I prefer RadarScope for mobile. Pykl3 has more integrated GIS features and is more customizable than RadarScope Some app recommendations: aforementioned radar COD nexlab (only for iPhone) Weather Radio - essentially a mobile weather radio, can get NWS alerts based on your location SPC mobile NWS mobile forecast widget - the find your location feature doesn't seem to work; just plug in your zip Comet modules are used extensively in met classes and in the workplace: Skew-T - long module but covers everything you could ever want to know. Convection (some are quite technical, but if you're bored and want what a lot of met students get in the classroom (sans the equations), it's good - The first 3 are the most fundamental Decent algebra-based met textbook, focuses more on physical understanding, not the math: https://www.eoas.ubc.ca/books/Practical_Meteorology/ The Weather Prediction website is a very thorough resource on most anything you would want to read about. Geared toward forecasting and has very little, if any math. US Tornadoes "Forecasting" stuff: Basics Boundaries and gradients What could go wrong SPC YouTube Tornado forecasting series, heavy emphasis on soundings and observations; highly recommend. There are 9 total videos TornadoTitans info on storm basics, skew-t/sounding, etc (haven't watched, but probably good enough to get a grasp) NWS Louisville Science Officer has tons of radar and storm dynamics stuff Hodographs - easy way to display winds throughout the atmosphere and shear Supercells A couple of papers on how tornadoes form and how the phrase "clashing airmasses" is highly misleading/physically incorrect way to describe how severe thunderstorms form. What we know and what we don't about tornado formation Clash of the airmasses To get a thunderstorm you need 3 things: 1. Moisture (hard to get clouds and rain without moisture) 2. Lift (hardest to diagnose; there was much better large-scale ascent last night (March 6) in Iowa and Minnesota than there was further south, large reason why those discrete supercells in AR and MO didn't get going until late) 3. Instability (updraft strength/speed is directly proportional to instability --> higher instability = stronger updrafts Need a 4th ingredient to get severe: 4. Wind shear (change in direction and speed with height; Generally, you'll see southerly-southeasterly winds at the surface that quickly veer (turn clockwise) west-southwesterly above the surface) This is key to storm organization; shear helps to organize storms and prevent precipitation from falling into the updraft, cutting it off. Shear also helps induce vorticity (spin) in the atmosphere that gives rise to mesocyclones (rotation of supercells). Supercells are amazing in that once they start to rotate, they self-sustain. The rotation induces mid-level low pressure --> "sucks" air up from below --> enhances the updraft and strength of the storm, augments the buoyant instability available to the storm. This is a reason why you can get supercells in an environment that some might consider to have marginal instability. In an ideal or classic case, supercells also can deviate to the right of the mean wind flow in their environment. What's the significance of this? This deviant motion enhances the low-level helicity --> enhances the shear and "spin" potential. Supercells are beasts that, by way of internal dynamics, can significantly enhance it's environment. Despite all of this, some research shows that only about 15% of supercells actually produce tornadoes. You can get tornadoes from non-supercell storms as well; also embedded within a line of storms. Often these squall line or QLCS storms have embedded supercellular circulations within them, rather than a discrete, classic supercell. Getting timely warnings out for QLCS tornadoes remains quite elusive as these things can form, produce damage, and dissipate within a few scans of radar or less (5-10 minutes). If you want an in-depth discussion on tornadoes by one of the more prominent tornado researchers:
Continue to see a more favorable signature late this month into April for severe weather. A lot of details to sift through, but the longer range stuff is picking up on a general area to watch from the central plains into the gulf states. Seeing things light up with a relatively consistent signal
Not tornado related, but some damn impressive synoptic winds across Michigan and Upstate New York today, especially near Lake Erie/Ontario. Gust of 82 mph was recorded in Rochester, which is their second strongest wind gust on record. Good number of 70+ gusts too with it.
My post on this a few weeks ago. The most current model run is at the top, with previous runs as you move down. When the forecast is valid is along the x axis. If you go to the website, you can hover on the boxes and it'll show the parameters it plots. Essentially plots precip + a supercell composite parameter to highlight spatial areas that may have an environment conducive to supercells.
Not necessarily. We've just found ourselves in a relatively warm, active weather pattern. If we continue to see a general pattern like this throughout the spring, we should be pretty active.
On an unrelated note, how competitive is the meteorology field? Does a BS get you anywhere, or is a Masters required for a good job?
It depends. There are a few Mets on TMB, so perhaps they could tell you their experience. From what I can tell it's rather tough. A lot of private firms do not pay well. I could have made more money managing a subway than where I last worked. The NWS has been tough for the past 10+ years with all of the budget cuts, furloughs, hitting freezes, etc. Seems to be more Mets than traditional met jobs. Even broadcast Mets are struggling. Beyond the bs, a MS is super helpful. As is programming and/or GIS skills. Programming is pretty big in this field, particularly in research. Computers are ever so slowly phasing out humans. We can, and often do, beat the models, but the models are cheaper. Similar thing facing a lot of industries
This is pretty accurate. I graduated in 2012, right before the government hiring freeze took effect that year. Tried to wait it out, but I ended up getting a job at a private company that was in the Minneapolis suburbs (and have been here ever since). Private companies, from my experience, pay less than the NWS does. To get in the NWS now, it's almost impossible to do unless you have some sort of real work experience.
Enhanced risk today, primarily driven by a hail threat, although a tornado is a definite possibility later this afternoon and evening. Currently a pretty big storm that has a fairly impressive hail signature on radar in KS/MO.
The aforementioned storm via reflectivity and differential reflectivity (ZDR). Reflectivity maximum collocated with a min in ZDR --> implies fairly large hail
I've been in the bullseye a lot recently. I could get used to this, although my old bones aren't liking it.
Some of the newest computer models can simulated composite radar reflectivity. While I'm usually not a huge fan of this (can often be way off), the run of this model has captured the current complex of storms fairly well. This loop begins at noon CST (45 minutes ago) and runs through 5am CST. Gives you an idea that whatever does form this afternoon could grow upscale into a larger MSC (mesoscale convective system)