Official Tornado and Runaway Barge Thread

Seemed EF-3 to me

 

Placeholder rating imo

 

EF3 yesterday in KS

 

Might as well start driving south already

 

This truck was tumbled/thrown 150 ft

 

I'm working in the purple/red until ~6pm ct. Sleeping in the red/yellow.

 

Daaaaamn

 

Biggest day of the year incoming?

 

Hopefully you have a storm shelter available

 

We do on site, but I've been told the shelter where I'm staying has "limited capacity"

 

Stay at work if you need to. Depending on how shit develops being on the road may be bad at 6. Also some storm chasers seem to hate traffic laws so that's another hazard

 

CAPE values up around 4,000. Yikes today could be big.

 

Someone said earlier this season that wichita is due. Welp.

 

If I leave now I can be in wichita by noon I bet

 

SPC wording for the high risk is kind of scary. They don't use the word "outbreak" very often.

 

It's a 4 hour drive from Lincoln. Plenty of time.

 

They also mention multiple long track tornadoes

 

Didn't look much yesterday. But shear looks very favorable today. Since I haven't looked closely, I'm not entirely sure what failure mode or modes could bust today like previous high risks this year. Might be the"best" high risk in sometime

 

Dang, I will be on an airplane when stuff is likely to start popping off. I'll be anxious to get back online and see how today goes

 

I'll be driving up to Wisconsin this morning. Should be there in time to watch things unfold

 

Seems one potential failure mode is too strong of forcing, causing things to grow upscale and messy quicker than thought. Could limit discrete threat+long tracked tor threat. We'll see

 

I'll be in the purple from 1-3. Headed back around 3pm to OKC. Kind of excited.

 

So on the percentages pages for the SPC outlook there is a blue category for 60% risk and black for 'sig'. Those ever been used?

 

Believe 60% was used for 4/27/11 in northern Alabama.

 

I was wondering about this. Some of the short range models I've looked at don't seem to keep cells discrete very long.

 

Tornado touched down near Pilger, NE yesterday.

http://www.1011now.com/content/news...icant-property-damage-reported-422844454.html

 

Latest spc outlook expanded the enh Zone S and removed their caveat about messy storm modes that was in the earlier update

 

Nice

 

Still says it will evolve into bowing segments but in my uninformed opinion it seems like the skepticism is missing now..

 

Not sure why they are making up their own labeling scale

 

yes

 

That's absurd and unsafe

 

First warning of the day in SW OK

 

Did the PDS go up yet? Saw that it was likely to be issued. Today looks to be crazy, as noted in here super strong wording from SPC.

If you are in the area please pay attention and know where you can shelter at.

 

Wonder if the early initiation will end up tempering the overall risk level. Seemed to be the asterisk in the forecast earlier today

 

Those cells in Texas moving NE should be watched closely.

 

Heading up to elk city. Goddamn those people may not get a break this week

 

Think the early initialization could diminish the risk a little bit. SPC talked about that in one of their outlooks.

 

Wonder what I means for Kansas. Looked like the moisture was already there, so that can't get blocked by Oklahoma fucking around.

 

Reading the PDS MSD seems like it won't matter. Storms that form later along the Dryline won't be fucked with by these early storms, and will be forming in an air mass that hasn't been turned over yet