Here's the initiation and evolution of the tornado warned storm NE of OKC. Convection initiation is fascinating to me; so hard to predict
Can also see near the end of the loop how quickly new cells initiate on the southern flank --> very quickly no longer a discrete cell
this lightning show is amazing. Got all my vehicles under the garage and porch area. Roof is getting fixed next week so who gives a fuck about that. Lets do this
Today went exactly has most should have anticipated. Models struggled and forecasters responded by making it more complicated than it needed to me. To many players in the field for this to ever be a big tornado but Forbes ran with it for the ratings. This always looked like a hail wind event with a few tors but nothing significant. Echo seemed likely and I'm ok with mod risk for it but the 10% hatched torn% was a joke.
Imo I think it was pretty well forecast. Hail and wind were recognized as the big threats. 10% tornado threat only warrants an enhanced risk, moderate was driven entirely by wind and hail. Tornado threat was conditional on things unfolding perfectly. I definitely agree lots of people blew their load because of the ridiculous instability, but that'll happen when it's as extreme as it was.
Last night was nuts. We're at a lake just south of Ardmore, OK. Tornado warning came down around midnight, park rangers were going around telling everyone to get to the main lodge. There were reports of two separate tornadoes on the ground due west headed due east. The storm eventually turned far enough right to cross into Texas thankfully, but there was a metric fuckton of rain
Trying to upload some pics but service out here blows. We watched the whole structure form from the lake, it was sweet
NSSL mobile research team launched a bunch of balloons yesterday. Even managed to get a balloon in the updraft of a supercell. Updraft (vertical wind speed) helps feed and sustain the storm. Vertical velocity of 102 mph. Dayum
The weather balloon launch at 7pm yesterday in Norman, ok (oun) had an insane amount of atmospheric instability
2 violent tornadoes on 3 high risk days. I'm calling bust on this entire season unless the high plains bequeath us one of those late season monsters.
Is it too much to ask for a 2 mile wide wedge with mobile Doppler measured winds of 280mph that gets an EF-2 rating?
lomcevak cutig Possible to get a time lapse for the storm that came through STL about two hours ago? Wind was doing some crazy shit and was warned after it passed over my house.
Radar loop of the last 4 hours. Can see thunderstorm outflow shoot off to the south later in the loop. It's a fine green/blue line that propagates away from the storms.
So now we are waiting again for the next pattern change? Seems like storm chances for me start to go up again starting early next week. Hopefully that means we get one more chance this spring.
Yeah. There will likely be days like today that produce, but if I remember correctly, things look a bit more promising once we push into June. 2nd week of June looks better
Supposed to go camping the 2nd weekend of June and see a concert. The timing doesn't look great right now.
got caught in a pop up severe thunder storm on the way home today. Raining like a bitch then it started hailing on me. Nothing too big, but apparently the hail was worse a little east of my drive.