Meh at this point. Instability and lapse rates aren't very good. Wind shear is pretty good though. Probably a lot of rain over the next 4 days in that area plus areas that don't need it anymore
Apr 2nd for my county. Ready for the spring. Also dreading the inevitable cold snap we will get this month as winters last gasp.
you know what I have no confidence after listening about what you have been saying to confide a life threatening question . before maybe . now your just not quality .
From an old Post that describes this chart Spoiler Pretty interesting resource here from the CFS (Climate Forecast System - a longer term climate/weather model that goes out to a few weeks/45 days, depending upon the use). http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/CFS_Dashboard/ It is useful to highlight (generally) where severe weather environments may be possible. Best use is to check to see if there are a cluster of similar days between multiple model runs - lends higher confidence that there is a distinct risk. Many of the details are lacking, but it can be useful to watch. Latest model run is at the top of the chart with days increasing from left to right. Can see a threat Feb 17-22 and another possible one to watch in early to mid March. Getting to be that time of year. Starting to see more favorable patted for severe weather. I wouldn't be much stock into it other than that it's just showing general pattern trends
Potential setup for some severe Sunday across much of central OK, northern TX, and possibly into KS. Many of the models have a dryline setup in west-central Oklahoma from roughly Wichita Falls up to Anadarko. Still a lot of uncertainties, particularly with the quality of moisture (the Euro model isn't promising there). By tomorrow evening, the event will be within range of a few of the regional/higher res models, so we'll see. Plus watch the actual obs over the next few days. I've already seen some ppl on twitter shit all over this setup for the wrong reasons. Some people believe the low level shear (higher values of low level shear are more favorable for tornadoes) is crap, but I do not believe that at all. Moisture and overall instability would appear to be the main limiting factors. I'll be curious if SPC outlines a risk for this day overnight; would be on the Day 4 product.
Hopefully better than last week. I’ve got my first chance at some thunder Sunday too. That’ll be a refreshing change.
I want thunder. So sick of snow. Although we'll be pushing mid 50s to near 60 this weekend. Can't complain with that.
They didn't do anything yet, probably a good thing Here's the day 4 discussion from SPC Spoiler .DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5... The ECMWF, GFS, UKMET and Canadian solutions move an upper-level trough across the Four Corners on Sunday. Large-scale ascent is forecast to increase in the southern and central Plains as the upper-level trough moves out of the Rockies and into the southern high Plains Sunday evening. Ahead of the system, moisture advection is forecast to take place in the southern Plains where thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon and evening. Considerable uncertainty is present for the forecast on Sunday relating to instability and system timing. If moisture return is stronger than currently forecast, then a severe threat will be possible across parts of the southern and central Plains Sunday afternoon and evening.
Yeah now we’re going from scattered storms to an inch of snow overnight. We’ve got tons of water which is great for some field surveys I’m starting. But I’m done with snow for a year I think
GOES-S launches in a little bit. This one is the sister satellite of the newest goes-16 NASA.gov/nasatv
American freaked out and cancelled my flight. Now driving the Hartford to catch one. It’s just rainy and a little windy. Nothing major.
We don't really have a general weather thread to post about the ongoing Nor'easter. Pilot report during descent into Dulles
If this setup was a month from now, ooh baby and tap into better heat/moisture + less cloud cover and this could be a big event
I mean, kudos to him for not going "Fuck. FUck. Fuck. Look at this shit. Fuck. FUck." the whole time. Hell, it's weird that he didn't make any sound when the tornado finally hit him.
Oh, absolutely. The sounds I would be making in that moment would not be pleasant. And likely confusing.
A couple of interesting posts from US Tornadoes http://www.ustornadoes.com/2018/02/28/shapes-storm-outlooks/ A spring outlook of sorts. A lot of technical stuff with heavy emphasis on global circulations/patterns. Those are things that I know very little about, did not really focus on that nor did I have much exposure in school. http://www.ustornadoes.com/2018/03/01/spring-2018-seasonal-tornado-outlook/
Like any long-term forecast lol While that write-up was well written and researched, it does show how difficult it is to produce seasonal forecasts that are more than basic generalities. Even with all of the scientifically sound theory behind it, it is still impossible to say with any certainty what things will be like. That said, forecasts like the US Tornado ones have sound, transparent science behind them. The Farmers almanac does not. Don't put any stock into that one people.
I was way off. Textbook dryline today, but nothing else really came together. Here's a good example of how to use that one chart I recently brought back up:
Was really humid today. Wife and I agreed it felt like something was supposed to happen. Sorry lomcevak
North Dakota overachieved today, though. Actually had a couple small hail producers, and a decent amount of lightning all things considered.