I studied this teleconnection stuff in a couple of climatology classes I took in college and found it to be super interesting. Just thought it was crazy how some climatological anomaly on the other side of the planet can affect us here in the states. I’ve forgotten most of it by now. I need to read and brush up on it.
This Saturday is a day to watch across eastern OK, TX, AR, and LA. Could be one of the better setups we've had, although it's still bit textbook
Looks like it. Better overall instability, good deep layer shear. Some questions on low level shear and overall evolution. GFS looks promising, Euro is meh to ok, and the Canadian is lol what's severe weather
FTFY. That’s good. I guess last setup we got tornadoes at night, let’s avoid that and get some spinning in highly visible rural areas.
http://atlas.niu.edu/ertaf/ This is a relatively new/experimental tornado forecast that takes into account atmospheric angular momentum + global wind oscillation (basically general global wind patterns) to forecast tornado frequency relative to climatology (what's normal). An explanation of the headers is here: http://atlas.niu.edu/ertaf/about.html . Key things to look for are the forecast periods and whether how they compare to climo (at the top of the page). Shows Mar 19-25 should be above average for tornadoes. We shall see. Verification over the past few years has been somewhat promising, at the very least they're rarely way off.
The last one of those charts with the huge number of model runs for severe weather seemed to like that time period if I’m remembering correctly
If anyone wants to get ahead of this, the hype train is boarding. Even though this is a legit event, I look forward to the Twitter hype
I can't even imagine what an event similar to the super outbreak in 2011 would be like on Twitter now.
There's an incredible thread archived on Talkweather starting on 4/20/11 and leads up to the day of 4/27 including posts in real time as tornadoes hit. Its as close as it gets to a twitter feed of a major outbreak as we have seen. I read the whole thing one night and legit got nervous for the posters as it was happening. https://talkweather.com/index.php?threads/severe-threat-april-26-27-2011.415/
Reading this now. How did I miss this before? I've read most of the SPC products from this event, but not the nws afds. Man, some of them were really good even 3 days out. Also interesting to read ppl talk about each model run knowing now that some of them were way off. Such an incredible, and sad, event.
What's incredible is when it starts becoming very evident that its not going to bust even two days out. There's this dread in their posts knowing what is inevitable and the greater public doesn't even realize it yet.
I read the entire thread. WOW! The Tuscaloosa cell started in Mississippi and continued into North Carolina where the high peaks of the Appalachians finally did it in. A bit of unfinished business on that thread: user Ghost set out to check on his girlfriend and her family by the lake near Cullman. He didn’t post a follow-up.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/iNOlL5tWxTg Saw that on twitter. The end when the tornado is dying is wild - birds start going nuts.
Article on enso impacts and severe weather with particular emphasis on this year https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/f...-enhanced-severe-weather-risk-southern-plains
Some supercell threat over the next few hours from Tulsa to Fayetteville to fort Smith. Tornado threat seems kinda low though bertwing
Not sure how to post animations, but it’s oretty wild to see the enormous number of birds on the Platte River showing up on radar
lomcevak got a RadarScope question for you if you don't mind...when I see an image like the one below, what causes the color distortion? Isn't it something to do with storm proximity to the radar? And is the solution to switch to a different radar?
That's range folding. The radar is incorrectly placing a return at the wrong distance. A limitation of Doppler radar. The processor at the radar site has an algorithm that filters that data our, that's why it's purple. The radar operator can change a few things at the office to mitigate it, but it is what it is. You can select a different radar, just need to be aware that it could be at a much further distance away from the south, hence you're not seeing the lower levels of the storm https://blog.wdtinc.com/radarscope-do-you-know-what-range-folding-is http://wx.db.erau.edu/faculty/mullerb/Wx365/Range_folding/range_folding.html