Official Tornado and Runaway Barge Thread

That was the first ef3 in 306 Days.

 

We are due for a really violent year. Since 2014 violent tornadoes (EF4 & EF5) are at an all time low.

 

Reading stuff from those who look more at teleconnections and long-term global patterns, it would appear that things are lining up for an active spring. Just a matter if it all comes together.

Really, it looks like synoptically (large-scale flows, like CONUS), it will generally be supportive. It'll come down to the fine/mesoscale details for each event.

The Gulf is primed too. Anomalously warm --> better heat/moisture flux --> better moisture transport into the southern US

 

What is anonymously warm?

 

Lol dammit

 

Tornado near Sacramento today

 

Well ok

 

Likely the largest hailstone in AL history



https://www.weather.gov/hun/event_03192018_hail

Ardmore, AL tornado was an ef2 that was on the ground for 23+ miles

The Jacksonville, AL ef3 was on the ground for 34+ miles

 

The pds verified then. Here’s hoping the SPC has righted the ship this year as opposed to the abysmal last two years

 

Storm reports plotted over the first day 1 outlook

Tornado


Wind


Hail

 

so close

 

That's much earlier than last year. I don't think we got anything until probably may - june from what I remember.

 

We may have a few storms in our southern area along the Nebraska border. Maybe we'll get bored and issue a special weather statement for them lol

 

If anyone likes looking at supercells on radar, tonight may be a good night to watch a few hail/wind producers

 

Swath of large hail. I’ll pass, just barely above that blob. Gonna have to fold in my mirrors and cram the front of my truck in the garage

 

Chance of thunder snow for me. Ill allow it. It looks like Monday could have some storms.

 

Yeah I’ll take rain and thunder. Pass on the snow. Luckily it isn’t getting this far south

 

Also why are the spc graphics so outdated? Why do I have to download the shapefiles myself if I want to zoom in on my state? Otherwise I have to use the counties and squint at my computer to find mine

 

I'm really craving a big evening thunderstorm right now. Just want to sit in the garage with a beer and watch/listen to one roll in.

 

Here's day1-3 outlooks broken down via state

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/state/images/

And nws cwa

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/cwa/images/

Nothing newer for mesoscale discussions or watches.

Do you pull the shapefiles into arcmap?

 

See that would be a great thing to link on their national page. Click on the state and it brings it up. Or some drop down menu. Knowing he govt, it’ll happen in 20years

 

Lol bet it doesn't happen that fast

 

Is that the action for today?

 

The stuff ene of gld is the stuff to watch

 

Cant wait for this. Sit back and crank on some music and watch the storm roll in.

 

Decent dryline today. Dewpoints in mid 50s (dark greens) in central KS to upper 20s (brownish-yellows) in western KS. South-southeast winds ahead of the dryline, west behind it. Clouds/storms starting to bubble along dryline with little behind it...too dry

 

Bit further north than they predicted

 

Looks like the best area of lift right now

 

That further south one will be coming straight for me if it continues the NE path

 

That one is trying, but still looks sub-severe.

One in KS to it's SW went up quickly. Warning on it now

 

First thunder of the year

 

So jealous

 

It's pretty sweet. But then tomorrow we go back to the garbage cold rain / snow mix

 

jesus, those poor cars

 

Hail is no joke

I'll never forget the roar that wind driven softballs did to my car last summer

 

That's kinda badass

 

Here's that Cullman storm. Starts as a small shower/storm south of the main stuff. Quickly organizes, begins to rotate, and then the storm motion quickly deviates and takes it east instead of northeast. Had this storm been able to stay isolated, ooh boy

(18mb gif)

 

Day 1 for Sunday. Not overly impressed with tornado potential, but we shall see. Low level wind shear doesn't look all that great at the moment.

 

Monday seems very meh at this point for you. Tuesday looks a bit better, but not much. Overall, looks very messy with the best heat, moisture, and instability staying south of you

Either way, you'll likely get a lot of rain, like 2"+ worth between now and Wed morning

 

This is way far out into model la la land, but I'm antsy for some severe weather. The GFS has a fairly potent setup in east-central OK for April 2.

We'll see how it evolves + what the Euro shows as we get closer. I don't have access to the Euro at home at the moment.

Probably me just hopping on the hype train, but there the Euro has been hinting at a slightly more favorable pattern in early April.

 

Dallas is predicting lots of rain and wind. Should be interesting.

 

Big ol supercell in TX

 

This storm was the result of a supercell split. One storm shoots northward (the left split) and slowly weakens, although it did maintain it's strength longer than usual. Right moving split becomes dominant, rotation further intensifies --> results in the storm propagating to the east-southeast.'

This gif shows storm initiation, split, and subsequent deviant motion of the right moving supercell. 2" hail (that's considered significant hail) with the eastern storm, golf balls (1.75") reported with the left split

 

You can see the rotation in this picture. The striations in the cloud midway up...that's the mesocyclone rotating counterclockwise. Dat structure

 

Something happening in Texas tonight?